2026年5月21日 / 美国东部时间上午11:16 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：艾米丽·梅·查霍尔（Emily Mae Czachor）
2026年大西洋飓风季将于6月1日开启，沿海居民正关注预报、等待大自然的动向，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）也即将发布未来数月的展望报告。
NOAA官员于周四宣布，他们预计今年飓风季活跃度低于平均水平，将形成8至14个命名风暴、3至6个飓风，以及1至3个达到3级及以上的强飓风。
当风暴的最大持续风速达到至少39英里每小时时，它将被命名；当风速升至74英里每小时时，便会被归类为飓风。当风速达到至少111英里每小时时，飓风将被划为“强飓风”，这一强度对应用于评估风暴强度的萨菲尔-辛普森飓风风力等级中的3级及以上。
大西洋飓风季的周期为6月1日至11月30日，活动通常在8月至10月间达到峰值。这段时间不仅是风暴数量最多的时段，也是季内最强风暴往往形成的时期。
NOAA的展望报告将在整个夏季进行多次更新，以反映预报随时间出现的任何变化。
NOAA2025年飓风预报准确度如何？
NOAA的飓风预报总体上相当准确，但并非百分百精准。
该机构2025年的展望最初预测去年的飓风季将形成13至19个命名风暴、6至10个飓风，以及3至5个强飓风。今年8月，预报值小幅下调：预测将有13至18个命名风暴、5至9个飓风，以及2至5个强飓风。
最终，2025年全年共形成13个命名风暴，其中包括5个飓风，4个为强飓风。
展示2025年大西洋飓风季风暴路径的地图。哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
这一活跃度略低于平均水平——平均飓风季通常会形成14个命名风暴、7个飓风和3个强飓风。
厄尔尼诺对2026年飓风季的影响
即将到来的飓风季可能会受到向厄尔尼诺过渡的影响，厄尔尼诺是一种周期性气候模式，会影响美国的天气状况，历史上与大西洋风暴数量减少有关。
不过正如哥伦比亚广播公司新闻气象学家尼基·诺兰（Nikki Nolan）在近期的厄尔尼诺预报中所写的那样，厄尔尼诺的出现“并不一定意味着我们不会遭遇任何大西洋飓风系统——只是从统计数据来看，风暴数量可能会低于平均水平”。
而在西海岸，影响则恰恰相反：厄尔尼诺现象带来的太平洋暖海水有助于太平洋热带风暴和飓风形成，并保持完整的垂直结构。
NOAA气候预测中心上周表示，厄尔尼诺至少有82%的概率会在7月前到来。科学家们仍在监测相关状况，以确定其强度。
NOAA的2026年展望报告是在科罗拉多州立大学热带气旋、雷达、大气建模与软件团队发布另一项重大飓风预报约六周后公布的。该团队的预报预测今年大西洋盆地的活动略低于正常水平，研究人员预计本季将形成13个命名风暴，其中包括6个飓风和2个强飓风。与NOAA一样，他们也将在未来几个月定期发布更新后的预报。
2026年大西洋飓风季风暴命名清单
每年，世界气象组织都会提前编制一份命名清单，用于分配给即将到来的大西洋季内形成的热带风暴和飓风。这份主清单包含21个名称，每个名称的首字母都不相同。如果单一年份形成的风暴超过21个（这种情况偶尔会发生），则将启用补充命名清单。
以下是2026年的主命名清单：
- 亚瑟（Arthur）
- 伯莎（Bertha）
- 克里斯托瓦尔（Cristobal）
- 多莉（Dolly）
- 爱德华（Edouard）
- 费伊（Fay）
- 冈萨洛（Gonzalo）
- 汉纳（Hanna）
- 伊萨亚斯（Isaias）
- 约瑟芬（Josephine）
- 凯尔（Kyle）
- 利亚（Leah）
- 马可（Marco）
- 娜娜（Nana）
- 奥马尔（Omar）
- 波莱特（Paulette）
- 勒内（Rene）
- 萨莉（Sally）
- 泰迪（Teddy）
- 维姬（Vicky）
- 威尔弗雷德（Wilfred）
尼基·诺兰对本文亦有贡献。
Watch Live: NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts below-average number of storms
May 21, 2026 / 11:16 AM EDT / CBS News
By Emily Mae Czachor
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and as coastal residents watch the forecast and wait to see what nature has in store, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is releasing its outlook for the months ahead.
NOAA officials announced Thursday that they are predicting a below-average season, with eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 or above.
A storm receives a name if its maximum sustained wind speeds reach at least 39 mph, and it becomes a hurricane if those winds climb to 74 mph. Hurricanes are classified as “major” when they reach wind speeds of at least 111 mph. That strength places them in Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale used to rate storm intensity.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking between August and October. That window tends to see the greatest number of storms develop, and a season’s most intense storms often develop in those months, too.
NOAA’s outlook will be updated several times throughout the summer to reflect any changes in the forecast over time.
How accurate was NOAA’s 2025 hurricane forecast?
NOAA’s hurricane predictions are generally fairly accurate, although not always exact.
The agency’s 2025 outlook originally predicted last year’s hurricane season would include 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. The forecast was adjusted slightly downward in August to predict 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes.
In the end, there were 13 named storms overall in 2025, including five hurricanes, four of which were major.
Map shows the path of storms from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. CBS News
That was a bit quieter than an average season, which has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Impact of El Niño on 2026 hurricane season
The upcoming hurricane season may be influenced by the transition into El Niño, an oscillating climate pattern that affects weather conditions in the United States and has historically been associated with fewer Atlantic storms.
However, as CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan wrote in a recent El Niño forecast, its emergence “does not necessarily mean that we won’t see any Atlantic hurricane systems — just statistically, there may be less than average.”
On the West Coast, the effect goes in the other direction: the warmer Pacific waters in an El Niño help enable tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific to develop and stay fully structured vertically.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said last week that there’s at least an 82% chance El Niño will arrive by July. Scientists are still monitoring conditions that will help them determine how strong it will be.
NOAA’s 2026 outlook is being released about six weeks after another major hurricane forecast from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software Team. The CSU forecast predicted slightly less activity than usual in the Atlantic basin this year, with researchers estimating that the upcoming season would see 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Like NOAA, they will release updated forecasts periodically in the coming months,
2026 Atlantic hurricane season storm names
Every year, the World Meteorological Organization preemptively compiles a list of names that will be assigned to tropical storms and hurricanes that develop during the upcoming Atlantic season. The roster includes 21 names, each starting with a different letter of the alphabet. If more than 21 storms form in a single year, which happens occasionally, then a supplemental list of names will also be used.
Here’s the main list of names for 2026:
- Arthur
- Bertha
- Cristobal
- Dolly
- Edouard
- Fay
- Gonzalo
- Hanna
- Isaias
- Josephine
- Kyle
- Leah
- Marco
- Nana
- Omar
- Paulette
- Rene
- Sally
- Teddy
- Vicky
- Wilfred
Nikki Nolan contributed to this report.
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