2026年5月20日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
近六成选民认为白宫记者协会晚宴枪击事件属实
撰稿：达娜·布伦顿，福克斯新闻
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6394604592112
刑事辩护律师称白宫记者协会晚宴枪击事件显然是谋杀未遂
刑事辩护律师约书亚·里特在《新闻故事》节目中讨论白宫记者协会晚宴枪击事件的证据现状
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福克斯新闻全国民调显示，三成选民认为近期在白宫记者协会晚宴上针对唐纳德·特朗普总统的刺杀未遂事件是演出来的。
30%的选民认为枪击事件是伪造的，其中13%的选民认为此事“绝对”是演的。不过，有微弱多数52%的选民认为袭击属实，近三分之一的选民称此事“绝对”发生过（31%）。
五分之一的选民不确定事件是真是假（18%）。
福克斯新闻民调：选民认为人工智能对隐私和收入构成风险
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4月25日袭击事件的嫌疑人科尔·托马斯·艾伦已对司法部对其提出的四项重罪指控不认罪。这起事件是特朗普第三次遭遇刺杀未遂，此前在2024年还发生过两起独立的刺杀企图。
公众对此次袭击的态度表明，共享现实的崩塌可能已达到临界临界点。最值得注意的是，两党对袭击真实性的分歧极为鲜明。调查发现，近半数民主党选民（49%）和2024年民主党总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯的支持者（48%）认为枪击事件是演的，而仅有10%的共和党选民持相同看法。
与此同时，79%的共和党选民认为事件属实，2024年特朗普的支持者这一比例为77%。在自称MAGA支持者的共和党选民中，这一比例升至87%。相比之下，仅有31%的民主党选民认同袭击是真实发生的。
无党派选民的看法存在分歧：41%的人认为事件属实，34%的人认为是演的。
不确定事件真伪的比例在无党派选民中最高，四分之一的人不确定（25%），其次是两成民主党选民（21%）和一成共和党选民（11%）。
福克斯新闻民调：56%的选民质疑白宫治理政府的能力
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45岁以下的共和党选民认为枪击事件是演的可能性是年长共和党选民的五倍多（22% vs 4%）。
负责福克斯新闻民调的共和党民调专家达伦·肖与民主党人克里斯·安德森合作，他强调此次刺杀未遂事件无疑是真实的，并警告日益增长的事实否认行为正在威胁政治进程。
“当党派极化和政治犬儒主义让我们无法就一套共同且显而易见的事实达成共识时，这会削弱我们诊断问题并制定政策解决方案的能力，”肖说道。“考虑到年轻选民是对我们的政治和体制最持犬儒态度的群体之一，这一点尤其令人不安。”
“这些结果展示了当公众的怀疑态度融入政治文化时会发生什么，”安德森补充道。“当人们被告知每一个重大事件都可能被操纵或伪造时，不信任本身就会成为默认反应。”
35岁以下的选民认为枪击事件是伪造的可能性是65岁及以上选民的近两倍（38% vs 20%），而年长选民是认为事件属实比例最高的群体之一（65%）。
性别差距也同样存在：更多女性（35%）比男性（25%）认为事件是演的。
超过六成的白人福音派基督徒认为枪击事件确实发生过，两成的人不这么认为。
点击此处查看交叉表数据和 topline 民调结果
本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年5月15日至18日由Beacon Research（民主党）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党）指导开展，调查对象为从全国选民档案中随机抽取的1002名登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（109人）、手机（635人）接受现场访谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（258人）。基于全样本的抽样误差幅度为±3个百分点。针对子群体的结果抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也可能影响调查结果。通常会对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权处理，以确保人口结构能代表登记选民群体。加权目标的制定参考了最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。
福克斯新闻的维多利亚·巴拉拉为本报告撰稿。
作为民意调查部门负责人，达娜·布伦顿负责管理福克斯新闻民调，并监督福克斯新闻选民分析选举调查。
Fox News Poll: 30% think recent Trump assassination attempt was staged
May 20, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
A slim majority believes shooting at White House Correspondents’ Association dinner was real
By Dana Blanton, Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6394604592112
The WHCA Dinner shooting was clearly attempted murder, criminal defense attorney says
Criminal defense attorney Joshua Ritter discusses the state of the evidence in WHCA Dinner shooting on ‘The Story.’
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Three in 10 voters believe the recent assassination attempt against President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner was staged, according to a Fox News national survey.
Thirty percent say the shooting was fabricated, including 13% of voters who think it was “definitely” staged.That said, a narrow 52% majority believes the attack was real, with nearly one-third saying it “definitely” happened (31%).
One in five is unsure whether it was real or fake (18%).
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS SEE AI AS A RISK TO PRIVACY AND PAYCHECKS
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The alleged gunman behind the April 25 attack, Cole Tomas Allen, has pleaded not guilty to the four felony charges filed against him by the Justice Department. The incident marked the third attempt on Trump’s life, following two separate assassination attempts in 2024.
Public attitudes surrounding the attack suggest the erosion of a shared reality may have reached a critical tipping point. Most notably, the partisan divide on the attack’s authenticity is stark. The survey finds almost half of Democrats (49%) and voters who backed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024 (48%) believe the shooting was staged, while just 10% of Republicans say the same.
Meanwhile, 79% of Republicans believe the event was real, as do 77% of 2024 Trump voters. That number climbs to 87% among Republicans who identify as MAGA supporters. By comparison, just 31% of Democrats agree the attack was real.
Views among independents are mixed: 41% say it was real and 34% believe it was staged.
Uncertainty about whether the incident was real or not is highest among independents, with one quarter unsure (25%), followed by 2 in 10 Democrats (21%), and 1 in 10 Republicans (11%).
FOX NEWS POLL: 56% DOUBT WHITE HOUSE’S COMPETENCE AT MANAGING GOVERNMENT
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Republicans under age 45 are more than five times as likely as older Republicans to think the shooting was staged (22% vs. 4%).
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson, stresses that the assassination attempt was undoubtedly real, warning that a growing denial of facts threatens the political process.
“When partisan polarization and political cynicism prevent us from agreeing on a common and obvious set of facts, it undercuts our ability to diagnose problems and develop policy solutions,” Shaw says. “This is especially troubling given that younger voters are among the most cynical about our politics and institutions.”
“These findings show what happens when public skepticism becomes embedded in the political culture,” adds Anderson. “When people are told that every major event could be manipulated or manufactured, disbelief itself becomes the default reaction.”
Voters under age 35 are nearly twice as likely as those ages 65 and over to think the shooting was fabricated (38% vs. 20%), as seniors are among those most likely to say it was real (65%).
There’s also a gender gap, as more women (35%) than men (25%) consider it staged.
More than 6 in 10 White evangelical Christians believe the shooting happened, while 2 in 10 don’t.
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Conducted May 15-18, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,002 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (109) and cellphones (635) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (258). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
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