2026年5月20日 美国东部时间下午6:14 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
华盛顿——据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻获悉，美国情报界正在就古巴可能对美国军事行动作出的反应进行分析。
本月早些时候，在美国情报界追踪到一艘悬挂俄罗斯国旗、受制裁的油轮“环球号”驶往古巴之际，五角大楼和美国国防情报局（美军情报部门）的分析人员开始分析古巴对美国袭击这个加勒比国家可能作出的回应。据两名了解内情的美国官员透露，为特朗普总统制定军事选项的工作已经启动。两人均要求匿名，因为他们未获授权公开发言。
这类情报预测不仅试图展示美国行动的直接后果，还试图分析后续可能发生的连锁反应。美国军事规划人员经常将此类分析纳入供总统考虑的备选方案制定工作中。
当记者周三询问特朗普，美国起诉古巴前领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗后，古巴是否会进一步升级局势时，特朗普回答说：“不会有升级。我认为没必要升级。”
美国情报界的反击评估尚不明确，但评估工作正在进行中，而此时哈瓦那与华盛顿之间的紧张关系正在升级。今年，特朗普政府实施了更多制裁，目标针对古巴军方和情报官员，并加大力度切断古巴的燃料和航运通道。
哥伦比亚广播公司新闻已证实，古巴已获得攻击无人机——目前尚不清楚是谁提供了这些无人机，以及它们是如何获得的。上周，率先报道古巴无人机消息的Axios网站称，哈瓦那已获得300多架军用无人机，并讨论了一旦与美国爆发敌对行动，将使用这些无人机袭击美国关塔那摩湾军事设施的计划。古巴国家主席米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔否认哈瓦那对美国构成任何军事威胁，但警告称，美国的袭击将引发“大屠杀”。
上周，中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫访问古巴，会见了情报官员以及前领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗的孙子劳尔·吉列尔莫·“劳利托”·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗。一名中央情报局官员表示，拉特克利夫告诉古巴官员，特朗普政府提供了“真正的合作机会”，以及稳定古巴陷入困境的经济的契机，同时警告称，这一机会取决于古巴断绝与美国对手俄罗斯、中国和伊朗的关系。拉特克利夫还表示，这一提议不会无限期开放。
在今年早些时候的一项行政命令中，特朗普声称古巴驻扎着俄罗斯最大的海外监听站。拜登政府还指责中国在这个距离美国海岸仅90英里的共产主义岛国开设间谍设施。
一名美国官员告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，拉特克利夫的此次访问将考验古巴政权内部那些承认国家需要新方向的人士，能否说服那些认为67年来他们有能力抵抗美国压力、因而能撑过特朗普任期的强硬派。
拉特克利夫的访问此前，古巴官员与美国国务院高级官员已经举行了一系列秘密会议。
今年4月，一个代表团前往哈瓦那，提议向古巴提供由埃隆·马斯克的太空探索技术公司运营的卫星互联网服务星链的接入权限。
最近，美国国务卿马可·卢比奥重申了美国提供1亿美元人道主义援助的提议，援助将通过他此前称被古巴政府官员搁置的信仰慈善机构送往古巴。一名国务院高级官员周二表示，古巴临时代办迈克尔·哈默近日会见了古巴外交部官员，传达了美国提案的条款，其中包括将在全岛分发的食品、医疗用品、太阳能灯和其他基本生活用品。
卢比奥周三发布了一段针对古巴民众的西班牙语视频，指责古巴政府导致全国范围内普遍出现燃料和食品短缺。他点名批评了由古巴军方运营、控制该国大部分经济的商业集团GAESA，称其是阻碍与美国合作的主要障碍。美国本月早些时候对GAESA实施了制裁，并于周一宣布对古巴军方和情报机构及官员实施新一轮制裁。
周五，哥伦比亚广播公司新闻率先报道，美国正采取措施起诉现年94岁的前总统劳尔·卡斯特罗，罪名与30年前击落两架飞机的事件有关。周三，佛罗里达州的联邦检察官公开了一份起诉书，指控卡斯特罗及其他五人与此次古巴军事行动有关。
与此同时，“环球号”数周来一直在大西洋上绕圈航行，距离古巴超过1000英里。过去，许多驶往古巴的船只因担心会被美国海军拦截而改变航线。今年3月，美国曾允许俄罗斯油轮“阿纳托利·科洛德金号”运载的原油抵达古巴，为该岛提供救援。本周早些时候，美国允许来自乌拉圭和墨西哥的运援助船只运送物资。
随着全球能源市场因美以与伊朗的战争而动荡，华盛顿已批准30天豁免期，允许各国继续接收已在油轮上并正在运输途中的俄罗斯石油和石油制品。
乔安妮·斯托克尔对本报道亦有贡献。
U.S. intel community analyzing how Cuba might respond to military action
May 20, 2026 6:14 PM EDT / CBS News
Washington — The U.S. intelligence community has been exploring how Cuba might respond to an American military action, CBS News has learned.
Earlier this month, as the U.S. intelligence community tracked the Universal, a sanctioned Russian-flagged oil tanker bound for Cuba, analysts at the Pentagon and Defense Intelligence Agency, the U.S. military’s intelligence arm, started to analyze what the Cuban response would be to an American attack on the Caribbean country. Work on developing military options for President Trump has begun, according to two U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. Both requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
These types of intelligence forecasts attempt not only to show the immediate consequences of an American action, but the chain of reactions that may follow. U.S. military planners frequently incorporate such analysis into developing options for a president to consider.
When asked Wednesday by reporters if there would be further escalation in Cuba following the U.S. indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, Mr. Trump replied, “No, there won’t be escalation. I don’t think there needs to be.”
The blowback assessment from the U.S. intelligence community is not clear, but it is ongoing and comes as tensions between Havana and Washington have been rising. This year, the Trump administration has issued more sanctions, targeted Cuban military and intelligence officials and expanded efforts to choke off Cuba’s fuel and shipping access.
CBS News has confirmed that Cuba has acquired attack drones — it’s not clear who provided the drones or how they were obtained.On Sunday, Axios, which first reported the news of the Cuban drones, said Havana had obtained more than 300 military drones and had discussed plans to use them to attack the U.S. military installation at Guantanamo Bay if hostilities with the U.S. erupt. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel denied Havana poses any military threat to the U.S., but warned that a U.S. assault would cause a “bloodbath.”
Last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba and met with intelligence officials and Raúl Guillermo “Raulito” Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former leader Raúl Castro. A CIA official said that Ratcliffe told Cuban officials the Trump administration was offering “a genuine opportunity for collaboration” and a chance to stabilize Cuba’s struggling economy, while cautioning that the opportunity was contingent on Cuba severing its ties with U.S. adversaries Russia, China and Iran. Ratcliffe also said the offer would not remain open indefinitely.
In an executive order earlier this year, Mr. Trump claimed Cuba harbored Russia’s largest overseas listening post. The Biden administration also accused China of opening up spy facilities on the Communist island just 90 miles from U.S. shores.
A U.S. official told CBS News that the Ratcliffe meeting would test whether those within the Cuban regime who recognize that the country needs a new direction can win over the hardliners who believe that their ability to resist U.S. pressure over 67 years means they’ll be able to outlast Mr. Trump.
Ratcliffe’s visit followed a series of secret meetings between Cuban officials and senior State Department officials.
In April, a delegation traveled to Havana and floated offering Cuba access to Starlink, a satellite internet service operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
More recently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated a U.S. offer of $100 million in humanitarian aid, to be sent to Cuba through faith-based charities that he earlier said had been stalled by Cuban government officials. A senior State Department official said Tuesday that the charge d’affaires in Cuba, Michael Hammer, had met in recent days with Cuban foreign ministry officials to deliver the terms of the U.S. proposal, which includes food, medical supplies, solar lamps and other basic goods to be distributed island-wide.
Rubio on Wednesday released a Spanish-language video directed at the Cuban people that blamed the island government for widespread fuel and food shortages across the country. He singled out GAESA, the business conglomerate run by Cuba’s military that controls most of the economy, as the main obstacle preventing cooperation with the U.S. The U.S. sanctioned GAESA earlier this month and unveiled a new swath of sanctions on Cuban military and intelligence agencies and officials on Monday.
On Friday, CBS News first reported that the U.S. was taking steps to indict Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old former president, in connection with the downing of two aircraft 30 years ago. On Wednesday, federal prosecutors in Florida unsealed an indictment charging Castro and five others in connection with the Cuban military action.
Meanwhile, the Universal has been sailing in circles for weeks in the Atlantic Ocean and over 1,000 miles away from Cuba. In the past, numerous ships bound for Cuba have altered course amid concerns they could be intercepted by U.S. naval forces. The United States did allow crude oil carried by the Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin to reach Cuba and provide relief to the island back in March. Earlier this week, the U.S. allowed ships carrying aid from Uruguay and Mexico to deliver supplies.
As global energy markets convulsed amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, Washington has approved 30-day exemptions allowing countries to continue receiving Russian oil and petroleum shipments already aboard tankers and en route.
Joanne Stocker contributed to this report.
发表回复