2026-05-20T04:01:50.945Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/20/politics/vance-rubio-2028-trump-gop-race-analysis
JD·万斯刚刚在共和党“产假政策初选”中完成了自己的表态。
这位副总统周二在白宫新闻发布厅主持了发布会，当时新闻秘书卡洛琳·利维特正留在家中照顾刚出生的孩子。
两周前，美国国务卿马可·卢比奥——另一位可能参与2028年共和党总统接班大戏的人物——也举行了类似的发布会，并推出了一支病毒式传播的竞选风格视频，阐述他对美国的期许。万斯紧随其后。
这两位相对年轻的共和党人——卢比奥现年54岁，头发乌黑不见一根白发，万斯则是41岁——将时代拉回了特朗普执政前的政治氛围，彼时的政坛少了些粗鄙野蛮的人身攻击。这预示着，当特朗普最终彻底返回佛罗里达州后，他们将如何重塑“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动。
眼下本届政府正深陷多重危机：无法收场的伊朗战争、非洲不断扩大的埃博拉疫情，以及民调显示美国民众对特朗普的信任度跌至历史新低，谈论2028年总统大选听起来像是华盛顿圈内的痴人说梦。
但总统选举政治从未停歇。就连特朗普也乐于抛出万斯与卢比奥对决、争夺其接班人位置的可能性。
两人均坚称不会竞选总统。这几乎是不言自明的，因为现任总统始终在密切关注。
这轮早期“《飞黄腾达》：2028版”竞选预热中更引人关注的，是卢比奥和万斯没有做的事。
利维特的发布会通常以抨击记者开场。当特朗普站在讲台后时，他的假发下藏着个人恩怨。万斯和卢比奥都没有效仿国防部长皮特·赫格斯的咄咄逼人。尽管两人都对特朗普恭敬有加，但都没有像联邦调查局局长卡什·帕特尔或前司法部长帕姆·邦迪那样，在国会山的闹剧表演中为老板抢戏。
万斯和卢比奥给人的印象都是沉稳务实的人——这在表演型的本届政府中实属罕见。
未来的总统正站在台上？
两人都对记者表现出尊重，似乎更乐于讨论政策而非互相攻击。他们都思维敏捷、准备充分，且洋溢着自信。每个人的发言都条理清晰、措辞优美。
耶鲁法学院毕业的万斯，像搭建法医证据链一样层层铺陈论据。而卢比奥则展现出了那种曾让众多专家学者认为他会是特朗普闯入2016年白宫竞选之前的下一任总统的激昂演说风格。
闭上眼睛，很容易就能想象出数年后，两人中的任何一位站在同一个位置发表总司令讲话的场景。
近十年来，美国一直由出生于20世纪40年代的两位领导人——特朗普和乔·拜登——掌舵。这两位年轻的潜在候选人的亮相凸显了一个反差：美国在选举年常常寻求年轻且充满希望的领导人，但最近却回头求助于老一辈来掌舵。
万斯和卢比奥都巧妙地提及了自己相对年轻的优势。卢比奥拒绝透露自己的DJ艺名。万斯则打出了“年轻父亲”牌，称当妻子乌莎7月生下第四个孩子时，他会请利维特代为履职。他还打趣说，自己四十多岁的眼神已经看不清记者的座位牌，这番辩解反而显得欲盖弥彰。
两人都比总统本人更适合作为特朗普政策的代言人。万斯并非首次展现出他的政治洞察力——他明白，否认许多美国人在民生危机中处境艰难是糟糕的政治策略。“我们非常清楚，由于中东局势，汽油价格上涨，很多美国人因此陷入困境。”
这位副总统还对特朗普有关伊朗核计划的警告给出了比总统本人更清晰的解释。他说，如果伊朗拥有核武器，那么海湾地区及其他国家也会争相效仿。“如果世界上每个国家都争先恐后地想要拥有核武器，那我们所有人的安全都会大幅下降。”
万斯并没有拿出证据证明伊朗在开战前就已达到核门槛。但如果特朗普在发动攻势前也发表过类似言论，或许就不会失去公众支持。
卢比奥则细致地解释了特朗普的“自由计划”——一项保护霍尔木兹海峡过往船只的方案。但不幸的是，他站在了所有公开表态的特朗普任命官员的“陷阱门”上。数小时内，总统就上演了最新一出“特朗普总是临阵退缩”（TACO）戏码，叫停了这项行动。
但万斯和卢比奥都无法展现出总统填满整个房间时那种野性的统治力。有时，他们看起来像是试图掌控因特朗普的反叛政治而崛起的狂野记者群体的新手。“这里很多该死的媒体机构我都不认识，也不知道你们都是谁，”卢比奥说道。万斯也有同感：“马可说得对，这里实在太混乱了。”
最终，凭借着充满活力却又克制得体的举止，万斯和卢比奥让人们得以一瞥特朗普喧嚣中遗失的、更传统的政治风格。他们提醒人们，老板特朗普背离了几代总统的礼仪规范。留给其接班人的问题将是：这种颠覆性的政治风格是否适合未来。
卢比奥去年告诉《名利场》杂志，如果万斯参加2028年大选，他将成为共和党提名候选人，并且会支持他。因此，这位佛罗里达州前参议员的总统梦可能取决于共和党在两年后的选举失利，以及他自己在2032年参选的可能性。
与此同时，万斯周二坚称：“我不是潜在的未来总统候选人。我是副总统，我真的很喜欢我的工作。”
但政坛瞬息万变。
那么，如果卢比奥与万斯展开竞选对决，会是什么样子？
万斯了解MAGA的基本盘。他也显露出迹象，正开始用自己的方式巩固支持者群体。他谴责那些未能谴责暗杀其好友查理·柯克的自由主义者。在支持伦敦极右翼民族主义活动人士的游行时，他表示，在移民问题上，没人应该害怕捍卫自己的文化。他还将包括宗教自由在内的美国基本权利置于鲜明的基督教语境下：“你不能强迫任何人走上信仰上帝的道路，”万斯说道，“他们必须凭借自己的自由意志，主动找到上帝。”
卢比奥的亮相则更多集中在外交政策上——这与他同时担任国家安全顾问和国务卿的两项职务相符。但当记者的提问为他提供了政治契机时，他精准地抓住了机会。
“我对美国的期许始终如一，”他说道，此时作为总统候选人的卢比奥已从2016年后的蛰伏中苏醒。“我希望这是我们所有人共同的期许。我们希望美国永远是这样一个地方：无论来自何方的任何人都能成就一切。在这里，你不会被出身、肤色或族裔所限制。”
不久后，他的这段完整演讲以竖版视频的形式出现在了他的社交媒体账号上。他的团队小心翼翼地在视频中大量穿插特朗普的画面，但激昂的配乐和“白宫风云”式的氛围让人一目了然。
十年间，卢比奥已成长为一名与MAGA理念兼容的不同类型的政治人物。但他的言论透露出一种诱人的可能性：他并未完全摒弃一种更具理想主义、积极向上且富有感染力的保守主义风格，这种风格或许有朝一日能成为焦土式特朗普主义的解药。
尽管如此，万斯和卢比奥无法掌控自己的未来。尽管他们都具备政治技巧，但他们所宣扬的立场正越来越与大多数美国人脱节。
如果两人中有任何一人登上总统辩论台，他们将被民主党候选人指控为共谋——批评人士认为，这是美国现代史上最腐败、最无能且最专制的政府。
无论为了当下还是未来的权力，这两位争夺特朗普“王座”的竞争者都做出了妥协，而这些妥协背后伴随着虚伪。
归根结底，鉴于特朗普极高的不受欢迎程度，以及威胁其第二任期的严重危机，卢比奥和万斯面临的问题或许不再是谁将成为特朗普的接班人，而是他的政治遗产是否值得继承。
Both say there’s no race, but Rubio and Vance take a 2028 turn
2026-05-20T04:01:50.945Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/20/politics/vance-rubio-2028-trump-gop-race-analysis
JD Vance just made his pitch in the GOP’s maternity leave primary.
The vice president held court in the White House briefing room Tuesday, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt at home with her newborn.
Vance followed Secretary of State Marco Rubio — the other half of a possible 2028 GOP presidential succession drama — who held his own briefing, which launched a viral campaign-style video on his hopes for America, two weeks ago.
The two youngish Republicans — Rubio is 54, without a gray hair in sight, and Vance is 41 — turned the clock back to a pre-Trump era of less brutish and viciously personal politics, foreshadowing how they might evolve MAGA when the president finally bulldozes his way back to Florida for good.
Given crises assailing the administration — an Iran war that it can’t end, a widening Ebola outbreak in Africa and polls showing the nation has never had less confidence in Trump — talk of 2028 seems like a Beltway fever dream.
But presidential politics never slumber. And even Trump savors dangling the prospect of a Vance-Rubio faceoff to become his heir.
Both men insist they are not running for president. That’s a no-brainer, because the incumbent is always watching.
What was more striking about this early round of “The Apprentice: 2028” is what Rubio and Vance did not do.
Leavitt’s briefings often begin with a tirade against reporters. When Trump looms over the podium, his weave boils with personal grievances. Neither Vance nor Rubio emulated the chest-beating of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. And while both were deferential to Trump, neither acted out for the boss like FBI chief Kash Patel or former Attorney General Pam Bondi in their Capitol Hill circus acts.
Both Vance and Rubio came across as serious people — a rarity in a performative administration.
Was a future president standing there?
Both men were respectful to reporters and seemed to relish issues over insults. Both were intellectually sharp, well-briefed and radiating self-confidence. Each spoke in eloquent paragraphs.
Vance, a Yale Law graduate, piled up evidence to build forensic arguments. Rubio, for his part, conjured the crescendos of rhetoric that convinced many pundits he was the next president before Trump barged into the 2016 White House race.
Close your eyes, and it would be easy to imagine either man speaking from the same spot in a few years as commander in chief.
America has been ruled by 1940s babies — Trump and Joe Biden — for nearly a decade. The spectacle of younger pretenders acting out the role underscored that a nation that often seeks out youth and promise in election years has recently looked back to an older generation to lead it.
Vance and Rubio both subtly nodded at their relative youth. Rubio refused to divulge his DJ name. Vance played the young-dad card, saying he’d ask Leavitt to step in for him when his wife Usha gives birth to their fourth child in July. And he insisted his 40-something eyes weren’t up to reading a reporter seating chart. He doth protest too much.
Both were far better spokesmen for Trump’s policies than the president himself. Vance, not for the first time, showed he understands that denying that many Americans are hurting amid an affordability crisis is bad politics. “We are very aware that because of what’s going on in the Middle East, gas prices have gone up, and a lot of Americans are struggling because of that.”
The vice president also came up with a more coherent explanation of Trump’s warnings on Iran’s nuclear program than the president has managed. If Iran got a nuke, then nations across the Gulf and elsewhere would also want one, he said. “If you have every country in the world scrambling to try to get a nuclear weapon, it would make us all much less safe.”
Vance didn’t have receipts showing claims Iran was at that threshold before the war. But if Trump had said something similar before launching his onslaught, he might not have lost the public.
Rubio painstakingly explained Trump’s “Project Freedom” — a plan to safeguard ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Unfortunately for him, he was standing on the trap door under every Trump appointee who makes a public statement. Within hours, the president had performed his latest TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) and put the operation on hold.
But neither Vance nor Rubio were able to project the feral dominance with which the president fills rooms. At times, they seemed like rookies trying to corral the wild press pack that emerged alongside Trump’s insurgent politics. “I don’t know many damn outlets here, I don’t know who you all are,” said Rubio. Vance had similar thoughts. “Marco is right, this is really chaos.”
Ultimately, with their energetic yet restrained demeanors, Vance and Rubio offered a glimpse of a more conventional style of politics lost in Trump’s cacophony. They were a reminder that their boss is an aberration from generations of presidential decorum. The question for his successors will be whether that disruptive brand is a fit for the future.
Rubio told Vanity Fair last year that if Vance ran in 2028, he’d be the nominee and he’d support him. So the former Florida’s potential presidential dreams might depend on a GOP defeat in two years and his own potential campaign in 2032.
Vance, meanwhile, insisted Tuesday, “I’m not a potential future candidate. I’m a vice president, and I really like my job.”
But everything can change fast in politics.
So what would a Rubio vs. Vance campaign look like?
Vance knows the MAGA base. He also showed signs he’s beginning to augment it with one of his own. He rebuked liberals who failed to condemn the assassination of his friend Charlie Kirk. He said no one should be afraid to defend their culture against immigrants when endorsing a march of far-right nationalist activists in London. And he placed US fundamental rights, including to religious freedom, in a distinctly Christian context: “You can’t force anybody to a pathway to God,” Vance said. “They have to, through their own free will, find God themselves.”
Rubio’s appearance was more confined to foreign policy — in keeping with his two simultaneous jobs as national security adviser and secretary of state. But given a political opening by a reporter’s question, he nailed it.
“My hope for America is what it’s always been,” he said, as Candidate Rubio roared out of its post-2016 hibernation. “I think it’s a hope I hope we all share. We want it to continue to be the place where anyone from anywhere can achieve anything. Where you’re not limited by the circumstances of your birth, by the color of your skin, by your ethnicity.”
Soon, his peroration appeared in full as a vertical video on his social media account. His image makers were careful to liberally splice it with videos of Trump, but the swelling music and “West Wing” vibes left no one guessing.
Rubio is a different political animal a decade into becoming MAGA compatible. But his comments offered the tantalizing possibility that he’s not fully disowned a more aspirational, positive and lyrical version of conservatism that might one day provide an antidote to scorched-earth Trumpism.
Still, Vance and Rubio cannot control their futures. For all their political skills, they are selling positions that are increasingly out of step with most Americans.
If either makes it to a presidential debate stage, they will be accused by a Democratic nominee of being complicit in what critics see as the most corrupt, incompetent and authoritarian administration in modern US history.
And in the pursuit of power, now and in the future, both contenders for Trump’s throne have made compromises that come with a side dish of hypocrisy.
In the end, given Trump’s huge unpopularity and the grave crises threatening to tank his second term, the question for Rubio and Vance may not be which of them will be Trump’s heir, but whether his political legacy is worth inheriting.
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