美联储连续第三次会议维持利率不变,鲍威尔承诺将留任理事


2026年4月29日 / 美国东部时间下午4:08 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示,他计划在5月任期结束后继续担任美联储理事。这一宣布是在美联储再次维持基准利率不变之际作出的,此前伊朗战争推高了通胀。

鲍威尔此前曾表示,他将留任美联储主席,直至司法部结束对他监管美联储华盛顿特区总部翻新工程的调查,他称此次调查具有政治动机。哥伦比亚特区美国检察官珍妮娜·皮尔罗4月24日表示,其办公室将结束对鲍威尔的调查。

“我在等待调查彻底结束,做到透明且有最终结果,”鲍威尔周三在新闻发布会上被问及何时会卸任美联储理事一职时说道。

“美联储机构正遭受重创”

鲍威尔补充称,他担忧美联储在政治挑战下维持独立性的能力,比如特朗普总统试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克。最高法院预计将于今年晚些时候就总统是否有权罢免美联储官员作出裁决。

“美联储机构正遭受重创——我们不得不诉诸法庭,”鲍威尔说道,“事情还没有结束。”

鲍威尔表示,美联储在不受政治压力的情况下制定政策的能力,对于维持低通胀和充分就业至关重要,这也是美联储双重使命的两个方面。

“你希望人们制定货币政策、设定利率时以公众利益为出发点,只专注于此,忽略政治考量,”他说道,“这无关两党合作——这是无党派立场。”

Bankrate金融分析师斯蒂芬·凯茨指出,鲍威尔选择留任美联储理事,突显了他对维护美联储独立性的承诺。

“这与主席在任期结束后离职的惯例大相径庭,堪称大胆之举,”凯茨在一封电子邮件中说道,“鲍威尔从未回避直面政治和法律压力,这一举动表明,他仍将通过继续履职,坚定致力于维护美联储的独立性。”

通胀高企

鲍威尔发表上述言论之际,美联储将联邦基金利率——即银行间短期拆借利率——维持在当前3.5%至3.75%的区间内。投资者普遍预计美联储会维持利率不变,芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察工具预测官员们维持当前利率的概率为100%。

在解释维持当前利率的决定时,负责制定利率政策的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)指出,中东局势发展导致“经济前景高度不确定”。美联储还表示,“高企”的通胀与“近期全球能源价格上涨”有关。

特朗普提名的接替鲍威尔担任主席的人选凯文·沃什将于5月15日任期结束后接手美联储,届时美联储将面临多重压力:从特朗普总统反复要求降息,到上月通胀率跃升至近两年来的最高水平。由于降息可能刺激通胀,许多经济学家如今预测美联储将推迟到2026年晚些时候甚至2027年才会降息。

“联邦公开市场委员会符合市场预期,今日维持利率不变,”穆迪评级首席信贷官阿特西·谢思在一封电子邮件中说道,“随着中东冲突的影响愈发显著,维持政策利率的理由在于通胀风险上升,而美国经济增长风险目前看来得到了控制。”

在声明中,联邦公开市场委员会重申了实现2%年度通胀率的目标。3月份消费者价格指数为3.3%。

鲍威尔指出,美联储认为当前的基准利率为经济形势变化提供了调整空间,不过他补充道,“目前没有人呼吁加息”。

“我们认为当前处于有利位置,可以向任何方向调整政策,”他说道。

异议委员

四名联邦公开市场委员会成员对美联储的声明投下反对票,其中美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰投票支持降息0.25个百分点。另外三名成员支持维持当前利率,但反对声明中暗示倾向于降息的措辞。

“但值得注意的是,新闻稿仍提到委员会‘将考虑对利率进行额外调整的范围和时机’,因此维持了未来进一步降息的倾向,”惠誉评级首席经济学家布莱恩·科尔顿在一封电子邮件中指出,“考虑到油价冲击,这份措辞显然引发了激烈辩论,有三名成员决定不支持在声明中加入宽松倾向的表述。”

被问及异议票时,鲍威尔表示,他认为鉴于经济面临的挑战,这是自然结果。

“我们正处于异常艰难的处境,”他说道,“我们遭遇了四次供给冲击:新冠疫情、乌克兰入侵、关税政策,如今又是伊朗问题和油价飙升。”

他补充道:“每一次供给冲击都有可能推高通胀和失业率。央行真的很难判断何为正确之举。”

2026年不会降息?

美联储上一次降息是在2025年12月,当时消费者价格指数同比为2.7%——高于美联储2%的目标,但较2022年6月疫情期间9.1%的峰值大幅下降。

自2月28日伊朗战争爆发以来,全球能源价格飙升,周三美国普通汽油均价升至每加仑4.23美元,比冲突前高出约1.25美元。据FactSet数据,经济学家目前预测,由于油气价格上涨,4月份通胀率同比可能跃升至3.9%。

牛津经济研究院在4月28日的一份报告中指出,高能源成本正导致一些美国消费者推迟购买大宗商品。

“我们预计油价上涨将打击消费者实际可支配收入增长,对耐用品和非必需服务支出造成最大拖累,”这家投资咨询公司说道。

消费支出下滑将对经济构成风险,因为美国国内生产总值每1美元中就有70美分来自消费者购买。

鲍威尔表示,到目前为止美国经济仍具韧性,但美联储正密切关注消费者是否会因汽油和能源价格上涨而缩减开支。

就业增长不均衡

美联储也在密切关注劳动力市场,该市场因经济不确定性、薪资增长不均衡以及人工智能的出现而陷入停滞。

一些公司已宣布大规模裁员,理由是人工智能,但经济学家表示,目前该技术似乎并未导致大范围裁员。

就业市场疲软的迹象可能会说服一些美联储官员下调针对消费者和企业的借贷成本。鲍威尔最近将就业市场描述为相对平衡,同时承认年轻大学毕业生在找工作方面面临障碍。

“美联储对劳动力市场状况,尤其是薪资压力和招聘需求的任何措辞调整,都可能对未来利率政策的预期产生影响,”美银理财首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格林本在4月27日的研究报告中指出。

Fed holds interest rates steady for third straight meeting, as Powell vows to remain as governor

April 29, 2026 / 4:08 PM EDT / CBS News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he plans to remain as a board governor after his term ends in May, announcing the move after the central bank again left its benchmark interest rate unchanged amid rising inflation due to the Iran war.

Powell had previously said he would stay on as Fed chair until the Department of Justice ended an investigation into his oversight of renovations of the Fed’s Washington, D.C., headquarters, calling the inquiry politically motivated. Jeanine Pirro, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, said on April 24 that her office would end the probe into Powell.

“I’m waiting for the investigation to be well and truly over with transparency and finality,” Powell said on Wednesday when asked in a press conference when he would leave his post as a Fed governor.

“The institution is battered”

Powell added that he is concerned about the Fed’s ability to maintain its independence amid political challenges, such as President Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling later this year on whether the president has the authority to remove a Federal Reserve official.

“The institution is battered — we have had to go to the courts,” Powell said. “It’s not over.”

Powell said the central bank’s ability to set policy without political pressure is essential to maintaining low inflation and full employment, the two sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.

“You want people to make monetary policy and set interest rates to benefit the general public, and focus only on that and ignore political considerations,” he said. “This isn’t bipartisan — it’s nonpartisan.”

Powell’s decision to remain as a Fed governor underlines his commitment to preserving the central bank’s independence, noted Bankrate financial analyst Stephen Kates.

“This is a bold departure from the norm of chairs exiting after their chairmanship term ends,” Kates said in an email. “Powell has not shied away from facing political and legal pressure head-on, and this move signals that he remains steadfast in his commitment to preserving Fed independence through continued service.”

Elevated inflation

Powell’s remarks came as the Fed maintained the federal funds rate — what banks charge each other for short-term loans — in its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected by investors, with the CME FedWatch tool forecasting a 100% probability that officials would maintain the current rate.

In explaining its decision to maintain the current rate, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s rate-setting panel, cited developments in the Middle East in pointing to “a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.” The central bank also said “elevated” inflation is tied to the “recent increase in global energy prices.”

Kevin Warsh, Mr. Trump’s nominee to replace Powell after his term as chair ends on May 15, will inherit a Federal Reserve facing pressures ranging from President Trump’s repeated demands for lower interest rates to an inflation reading that jumped last month to its highest level in almost two years. Because interest rate cuts can spur inflation, many economists now predict the Fed will hold off on reductions until later in 2026 or even 2027.

“The FOMC met expectations and held rates steady today,” said Atsi Sheth, chief credit officer at Moody’s Ratings, in an email. “As the effects of the Middle East conflict become more pronounced, the case for maintaining policy rates rests on rising inflation risks, while risks to U.S. growth appear contained for now.”

In its statement, the FOMC reiterated its goal of achieving a 2% annual inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index stood at 3.3% in March.

Powell noted that the central bank believes the current benchmark rate provides flexibility if economic conditions change, although he added that “nobody is calling for a hike right now.”

“We feel we’re in a good place to move in either direction,” he said.

Dissenting members

Four FOMC members dissented from the Fed’s statement, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran voting in favor of a 0.25 percentage-point cut. Three other members supported maintaining the current rate, but opposed wording in the statement that signaled a bias toward lowering rates.

“But it is notable that the press release still refers to the Committee ‘considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments’ to rates and hence maintains a bias towards further cuts ahead,” noted Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, said in an email. “This wording was clearly a topic of much debate given the oil price shock, with three members deciding not to support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement.”

Asked about the dissents, Powell said that he viewed it as a natural outcome given the challenges facing the economy.

“We’re in an unusually difficult situation,” he said. “We’ve had four supply shocks — the pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine, the tariffs and now Iran and the oil spike.”

He added, “Every supply shock has the capability of driving inflation up and unemployment up. The central bank has a really hard time deciding what the right thing is to do.”

No rate cuts in 2026?

The Fed last cut rates in December 2025, when the Consumer Price Index stood at 2.7% on an annual basis — above the Fed’s 2% target but down sharply from the pandemic-era high of 9.1% in June 2022.

Since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, global energy costs have spiked, pushing the average U.S. price for a gallon of gasoline to $4.23 on Wednesday, about $1.25 more than before the conflict. Economists now forecast that April’s inflation rate could jump to 3.9% annually due to higher oil and gas prices, according to FactSet.

Higher energy costs are leading some U.S. consumers to hold off on buying big-ticket items, noted Oxford Economics in an April 28 report.

“We expect higher oil prices will hit consumers’ real disposable income growth and weigh on spending on durable goods and discretionary services the most,” the investment advisory firm said.

A dip in spending would pose risks for the economy, which relies on consumer purchases for 70 cents of every $1 in gross domestic product.

So far, the U.S. economy remains resilient, Powell said, but the Fed is closely watching whether consumers pull back on spending due to higher gas and energy prices.

Uneven job growth

The Fed is also keeping an eye on the labor market, which has idled amid economic uncertainty, uneven payroll gains and the emergence of artificial intelligence.

Some companies have announced large layoffs, citing AI, although economists say the technology doesn’t yet appear to be causing widespread job cuts.

Signs of a weaker job market could persuade some Fed officials to dial back borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Powell has recently described the employment market as relatively balanced, while acknowledging that young college grads face obstacles in finding work.

“Any refinement in how the Fed describes labor market conditions, particularly wage pressures and hiring demand, could carry implications for expectations around future rate policy,” noted Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene in an April 27 research note.

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