2026-04-28T10:05:25.912Z / 路透社
2026年4月21日，美国华盛顿国会山，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席人选凯文·沃什在参议院银行委员会确认听证会后留影。路透社/凯文·拉马克/档案照片
内容提要
鸽派与鹰派图示：
美联储政策制定者分为鹰派、中间派和少数鸽派少数派
沃什在通胀和资产负债表方面的观点与多数现任美联储官员存在分歧
4月28日（路透社）——美联储主席提名人选凯文·沃什表示，一旦他接任美国央行行长一职，他希望政策制定会议上出现一场“良性的家庭内斗”。
而如果他试图兑现特朗普总统对其提名人选的预期，大幅降息，那么他可能会迎来一场对抗——至少是强烈反对——尤其是在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期于5月15日结束之际。
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在19名负责制定利率的美联储官员中，将于周二召开的本次会议很可能是鲍威尔领导下的最后一次为期两天的政策会议。其中约一半人倾向鹰派立场，即他们更担心通胀上升而非劳动力市场疲软，因此很难支持降息。
约三分之一的官员坚定地持中间立场，仅有三人主张近期降低借贷成本。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰属于鸽派少数派，他即将辞职，为沃什加入美联储理事会腾出位置。
参议院银行委员会预计将于周三推进沃什的提名，交由全体参议院审议，这增加了这位56岁的律师兼金融家将于6月16日至17日的美联储会议上就职主持工作的可能性。
以下将分析沃什的新同事们与这位新任美联储主席的观点存在哪些分歧。
劳动力市场
“我大致认为，经济运行已接近充分就业……按照美联储的标准，如果想要工作的美国人都能找到工作，那么我们就实现了充分就业，”沃什在上周的确认听证会上对议员们表示。
在这一点上，他可能不会遇到太多反对声音。尽管过去一年月度新增就业岗位大幅减少，但求职者数量也随之下降，这主要是因为移民数量急剧放缓，而美国本土人口持续老龄化并步入退休阶段。这些因素限制了失业率的上升，3月份失业率小幅下降至4.3%。
但这并不意味着人们对劳动力市场的脆弱性没有担忧，尤其是美联储内部较为鸽派的成员。
“我持续看到劳动力市场存在疲软迹象，这让市场处于脆弱状态，相关数据显示招聘人数和离职人数都处于低位，”美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒本月早些时候表示。
但就目前而言，大多数美联储政策制定者认为劳动力市场处于平衡状态，并将目光投向通胀数据，以确定货币政策的走向。
通胀
沃什在确认听证会上作证称，他认为通胀“在过去一年中有所改善”，这一观点与许多美联储政策制定者相悖。这些官员指出，特朗普政府去年实施的新进口关税是通胀进展停滞的原因，并表示他们担心伊朗局势冲突和油价大幅上涨将推高通胀。
核心个人消费支出价格指数的同比变化是衡量核心通胀的指标，2月份该指数为3%，经济学家估计3月份这一数字将升至3.2%。美联储设定的2%个人消费支出价格指数年度涨幅目标，预计3月份将达到3.5%。
沃什上周表示，他认为剔除极值的均值通胀指标——剔除涨幅最快和跌幅最大的价格，以反映大多数价格的走势——是衡量通胀趋势的更好指标。达拉斯联邦储备银行的剔除极值通胀读数3月份为2.3%。
如果这些言论是沃什希望重新审视美联储2%通胀目标的隐晦信号，那么他可能几乎得不到支持。几乎所有现任美国央行政策制定者都表示无意重新审视这一目标，尤其是考虑到过去五年该目标一直未达成。
话虽如此，大多数央行官员已经在关注一系列通胀指标。达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁洛里·洛根所在的地区联储银行编制了最知名的剔除极值通胀指标，她是央行内部领先的鹰派政策制定者之一。
利率
鲍威尔曾表示，美联储的货币政策“处于有利位置”，他的许多同事也认同这一说法，这意味着他们对维持当前3.50%-3.75%的政策利率区间感到满意，市场普遍预计美联储将在本周的会议上维持这一利率。
一些倾向鹰派的政策制定者甚至表示支持修改美联储的政策声明，以表明下一次行动既可能加息，也可能降息。其他人则表示，通胀压力至少要求推迟任何降息举措，甚至可能推迟到明年。金融市场普遍的预期是今年不会降息。
沃什在确认听证会上没有重申他在特朗普仍在考虑美联储主席人选时表达的立即降息的支持立场。不过，他在这方面的沉默可能更多与他的观点有关，即美联储政策制定者不应就即将做出的决策甚至利率路径观点提供任何“前瞻性指引”。
当被问及美联储是否应该如特朗普所说，在今年年底将政策利率降至1%时，沃什没有反驳。这一降幅幅度之大，通常仅与衰退和危机时期相关，而非经济增长时期。
资产负债表
沃什对议员们表示，任何关于利率适当水平的讨论都应涉及资产负债表的讨论，因为“这些工具应协同发挥作用，而非相互矛盾”。事实上，他认为缩减资产负债表将为政策制定者降低短期利率留出空间，而迄今为止，这一观点仅在美联储政策制定者中获得了一人公开支持。
沃什未来的大多数美联储同事都认为，除非在危机时期，否则资产负债表的讨论应与利率政策分开。沃什希望缩减资产负债表，而大多数美联储政策制定者则认为，资产负债表应随着经济增长和对美元货币的需求而小幅扩张。他们似乎与沃什达成一致的一点是，任何资产负债表的调整都应循序渐进。
人工智能将如何改变一切
沃什认为，从长期来看，人工智能可能会提高经济生产率，这一观点在政策制定会议上获得了共鸣。他们的论点是，生产率增长的爆发可能为降息打开大门，因为这将允许经济更快增长，而不会推高通胀的风险。
但时机至关重要。几位美联储政策制定者警告称，短期内，人工智能投资可能会加剧价格压力。此外，人工智能对劳动力市场的影响尚不清楚，因为美联储政策制定者才刚刚开始分析这一问题。
本文由安·萨菲尔报道；保罗·西mao编辑
Fed’s policymaking table is set for the ‘family fight’ Warsh says he wants
2026-04-28T10:05:25.912Z / Reuters
Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, at the end of a Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 21, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
Summary
Doves and Hawks graphic:
Fed policymakers split between hawks, centrists, and a small dovish minority
Warsh’s views on inflation and balance sheet differ from most current Fed officials
April 28 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve chief nominee Kevin Warsh says he wants a “good family fight” at the policymaking table once he takes over as head of the U.S. central bank.
And a fight, or at least stiff resistance, may be exactly what he gets if he tries to deliver the steep interest rate cuts that President Donald Trump expects from his nominee when Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s leadership term ends on May 15.
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Of the 19 Fed officials who set interest rates and who will convene on Tuesday for what’s likely to be their final two-day policy meeting under Powell’s leadership, roughly half lean hawkish, meaning they are more concerned about the prospect of rising inflation than labor market weakening, and therefore are hard-pressed to support rate cuts.
About a third are solidly centrist, and only three have argued for near-term reductions in borrowing costs. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, in this dovish minority, is set to step down to make room for Warsh to join the Fed’s Board of Governors.
The Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday is expected to advance Warsh’s nomination for consideration by the full Senate, increasing the chance that the 56-year-old lawyer and financier will be in place to preside over the Fed’s June 16-17 meeting.
Here is a look at how Warsh’s new colleagues fit in relation to the incoming Fed chief’s views.
LABOR MARKET
“I think broadly speaking, the economy is running about close to full employment … if Americans that want a job can find a job, by the Fed’s metric we’re at full employment,” Warsh told lawmakers at his confirmation hearing last week.
He may get little argument at the table on that score. Though monthly job creation has plummeted over the last year, so has the number of job seekers, largely because the number of immigrants has slowed sharply and the U.S.-born population continues to age into retirement. Those changes have kept a cap on the unemployment rate, which ticked down in March to 4.3%.
That’s not to say there isn’t concern about labor market fragility, especially among the Fed’s more dovish members.
“I continue to see weakness in the labor market that leaves it vulnerable, starting with data showing low numbers of both hires and people losing their jobs,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month.
But for now the majority of Fed policymakers see the labor market as balanced and are looking to inflation data for direction on what to do with monetary policy.
INFLATION
Warsh testified at his confirmation hearing that he felt inflation “has improved somewhat in the last year,” a view at odds with many Fed policymakers who point to the Trump administration’s new import tariffs last year as a reason for stalled progress on inflation and who say they are worried the Iran war and sharply higher oil prices will push inflation back up.
Underlying inflation, as measured by the year-over-year change in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, was 3% in February and economists estimate it rose to 3.2% in March. The 12-month change in the PCE Price Index, which the Fed targets at 2%, is estimated to have hit 3.5% in March.
Warsh said last week he feels that trimmed-mean measures – which lop off the fastest-rising and sharpest-falling prices to get a picture of where most prices are heading – are better gauges of the inflation trend. The Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean reading was 2.3% in March.
If those comments were a veiled signal that Warsh wants to revisit the Fed’s 2% inflation target, he may get few takers. Nearly all current U.S. central bank policymakers have signaled no appetite for revisiting that goal, especially given that it has missed its target for the past five years.
That said, most central bankers already look at a range of inflation measures. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, whose regional Fed bank produces the best-known trimmed-mean measure, is one of the central bank’s leading hawkish policymakers.
INTEREST RATES
Powell has said the Fed’s monetary policy is “well-positioned,” a term that many of his colleagues have also adopted and that signals comfort with leaving the policy rate in its current 3.50%-3.75% range, as the central bank is universally expected to do at this week’s meeting.
Some of the more hawkish-leaning policymakers have even expressed support for changing the Fed’s policy statement to signal as much openness to a rate hike as a next move as to a rate cut. Others say inflation pressures at the least call for delaying any rate cut, perhaps even into next year. The going bet in financial markets is for no rate cuts this year.
Warsh at his confirmation hearing did not reiterate the support for immediate rate cuts that he had expressed when Trump was still weighing his options for his Fed chief nominee. His muteness on that front, however, may have more to do with his view that Fed policymakers should not give any “forward guidance” about their upcoming decisions or even about their rate-path views.
Warsh did not push back against a question about whether the Fed ought, as Trump has said, to cut its policy rate to 1% by the end of this year, a drastic reduction to a level most usually associated with recessions and crises, not a growing economy.
BALANCE SHEET
Warsh told lawmakers any discussion of the proper setting of interest rates should also involve discussion of the balance sheet, because “those tools should be working in concert, not at cross purposes.” Indeed, he argues that shrinking the balance sheet will give policymakers room to lower short-term interest rates, a view that has so far found just one public taker among Fed policymakers.
Most of Warsh’s future Fed colleagues see discussion of the balance sheet as distinct from interest rate policy, except during a crisis. Warsh wants to shrink the balance sheet at a time when most Fed policymakers see it expanding, if marginally, in line with the growth of the economy and the demand for U.S. currency. Where they do appear to agree with Warsh is that any changes to the balance sheet should be gradual.
HOW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL CHANGE THINGS
Warsh’s view that artificial intelligence will likely push up economic productivity in the longer term has a sympathetic ear at the policymaking table. A productivity growth spurt, the argument goes, could open the door to rate cuts because it would allow the economy to grow faster without the risk of pushing up inflation.
But timing matters. In the short term, artificial intelligence investment may be adding to price pressures, several Fed policymakers have warned. And the long-term implications for rates are unclear because AI will also affect the labor market in ways Fed policymakers are only beginning to parse.
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
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