2026-04-14T13:45:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
华盛顿讯——2026年将改选超过三分之一的参议院席位，直到不久前，共和党人还对今年秋季中期选举后继续掌控参议院席位充满信心。
尽管共和党需要保卫的席位更多，但其中许多都位于特朗普总统在上次大选中以较大优势获胜的州。由于可夺取的席位寥寥无几，且需要保卫多个开放席位，2026年的选举周期对民主党来说是一场艰难的战斗。
但如今，不受欢迎的伊朗战争以及持续存在的民生负担问题，让民主党人更有理由相信自己有机会拿下关键席位，甚至赢得参议院的控制权。哥伦比亚广播公司上月发布的民调显示，更多选民表示更希望民主党掌控国会，而非共和党。
政治常识认为，掌控白宫的政党通常会在中期选举中失去众议院席位。因此，共和党正努力保住目前在参议院53个席位的多数优势，以防民主党同时拿下参众两院的多数席位。民主党需要净增4个席位才能获得多数控制权。
以下这些关键选举将决定参议院的控制权归属：
缅因州：民主党欲推翻苏珊·柯林斯，州长与进步派牡蛎养殖户展开党内初选对决
共和党籍参议员苏珊·柯林斯正奋力保住自己的参议院席位。这位已连任五届的参议员此前曾多次击退民主党人的挑战。但在这个2024年卡玛拉·哈里斯以近7个百分点优势获胜的州，她能否继续连任仍是未知数。
缅因州州长珍妮特·米尔斯和退伍军人、牡蛎养殖户格雷厄姆·普拉特纳正在角逐民主党提名，初选定于6月9日举行。78岁的米尔斯是在民主党领导层的敦促下参选的。而41岁的普拉特纳则将自己定位为反建制候选人，已获得佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯和马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦等知名进步派人士的支持。近期民调显示，普拉特纳以显著优势领先米尔斯。
《库克政治报告》将这场竞选评级为“势均力敌”。作为参议院拨款委员会主席，柯林斯在参议院拥有广泛影响力，是共和党团中最具独立立场的议员之一，这也让她成为特朗普总统的批评目标。但参议院共和党领袖们始终支持她，参议院共和党超级政治行动委员会“参议院领导基金”宣布将投入4200万美元用于该选区的广告宣传。
密歇根州：席位势均力敌，以色列议题主导民主党初选，迈克·罗杰斯再次参选参议员
参议员加里·彼得斯宣布不寻求连任，为这个五大湖州拉开了一场竞争激烈的民主党初选序幕。众议员黑利·史蒂文斯、州参议员马洛里·麦克莫罗和前密歇根州卫生官员阿卜杜勒·赛义德正在角逐民主党提名，近几个月来，这场初选因党内斗争变得愈发激烈。密歇根州拥有美国最多的阿拉伯裔人口，美国与以色列的关系以及加沙战争是目前竞选的核心议题。初选定于8月4日举行。
共和党方面，前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯在去年选举中不敌参议员埃利萨·斯洛特金后，再次角逐密歇根州参议院席位。“参议院领导基金”宣布将在该选区投入4500万美元。
由于没有现任议员的优势，再加上该州近年来在总统选举中频繁在两党之间摇摆，密歇根州被认为是民主党最脆弱的席位之一。《库克政治报告》将该选区评级为“势均力敌”。
俄亥俄州：谢罗德·布朗发起复出竞选，争夺万斯原属席位
前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗的复出竞选让俄亥俄州的竞争变得激烈起来，尽管这个“七叶树之州”近年来政治立场右倾。
布朗曾在俄亥俄州担任三届参议员，2024年不敌共和党参议员伯尼·莫雷诺。尽管特朗普总统当时以超过10个百分点的优势赢得该州，但布朗仅以不到4个百分点的差距输给了莫雷诺。结合中期选举的政治态势，以及布朗在该州拥有的强大工薪阶层选民基础，民主党认为这里有机会拿下共和党席位。
参议员约翰·赫斯特特因去年被任命填补副总统JD·万斯留下的空缺，正在保卫这个席位。赫斯特特此前曾担任俄亥俄州副州长。
俄亥俄州2024年的参议院选举是该选举周期中耗资最高的一场，本次参议院竞选同样耗资不菲。“参议院领导基金”在此投入了7900万美元的广告预算，创下该机构单次选举广告投入之最。
《库克政治报告》于4月将该选区评级从“倾向共和党”调整为“势均力敌”。
阿拉斯加州：丹·沙利文面临前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉的挑战
共和党籍参议员丹·沙利文正在阿拉斯加州保卫自己的席位，挑战者是前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉。佩尔托拉在2022年成为50年来首位代表阿拉斯加州进入众议院的民主党人。
佩尔托拉是首位进入国会的阿拉斯加原住民，2024年在寻求连任阿拉斯加州唯一众议院席位时以微弱劣势落败。尽管总统候选人在该州以13个百分点的优势获胜，但佩尔托拉仅以不到3个百分点的差距落选。考虑到中期选举通常会有利于反对白宫所在政党的一方，民主党希望她能在今年的选举中拿下该参议院席位。
“参议院领导基金”宣布将投入1500万美元用于广告宣传，助力沙利文竞选。这位连任两届的共和党议员在上次选举中以较大优势成功连任。尽管民主党对此持乐观态度，但拿下该席位仍将是一场硬仗。《库克政治报告》将该选区评级为“倾向共和党”。
佐治亚州：奥索夫寻求连任，该州曾在2024年支持特朗普
民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫是2024年总统选举获胜州中唯一寻求连任的民主党参议员，因此这场竞选对共和党来说是夺回参议院多数席位的关键目标。但奥索夫强劲的筹款能力以及共和党党内混乱的初选局势，似乎改善了他的竞选前景。
39岁的奥索夫于2021年初当选，凭借佐治亚州的两场 runoff选举胜利为民主党拿下参议院多数席位。在2020年该州为民主党提供关键胜选优势（包括支持乔·拜登赢得总统选举）后，佐治亚州在2024年转而支持特朗普总统。
这一态势让奥索夫成为本届中期选举周期中最脆弱的民主党现任参议员。但4月佐治亚州的一场特别选举结果，以及可能旷日持久的共和党初选斗争，似乎改善了奥索夫的竞选局面。《库克政治报告》于4月将该选区评级从“势均力敌”调整为“倾向民主党”。
众议员迈克·柯林斯、巴迪·卡特以及前大学橄榄球教练德里克·杜利正在5月19日的初选中角逐提名。杜利获得了佐治亚州州长布莱恩·坎普的背书，但特朗普总统尚未在该选区表态，如果没有候选人获得50%以上的选票，初选将在6月进入决胜轮。“参议院领导基金”宣布将在该选区投入4400万美元的广告预算。
新罕布什尔州：前共和党参议员角逐开放席位，民主党支持沙欣属意候选人
又一位民主党现任议员退休，拉开了该州竞争激烈的参议院选举序幕。参议员珍妮·沙欣宣布不寻求连任，并背书众议员克里斯·帕帕斯作为其继任者。帕帕斯自2019年起代表新罕布什尔州进入众议院。
共和党方面，曾被沙欣击败的前参议员约翰·苏努努正在发起复出竞选。曾在2010年至2013年代表马萨诸塞州进入参议院的前参议员斯科特·布朗，也在2014年竞选不敌沙欣后，再次参选新罕布什尔州联邦参议员。“参议院领导基金”宣布将在该选区投入1700万美元，并在9月8日的初选中支持苏努努。
尽管新罕布什尔州自2017年以来由共和党人担任州长，但该州自2015年以来从未选出过共和党籍国会议员，自2000年以来也从未在总统选举中支持过共和党候选人。《库克政治报告》将该选区评级为“倾向民主党”。
北卡罗来纳州：民主党乐观拿下席位，前州长罗伊·库珀作为顶级候选人参选
共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯的退休为这个“焦油脚跟之州”拉开了一场重大竞选的序幕，民主党将这里视为本届选举周期中最有机会拿下共和党席位的选区之一。
北卡罗来纳州自2008年以来从未选出过民主党参议员。但民主党将赌注押在前州长罗伊·库珀的执政履历上——他担任了两届州长，也是北卡罗来纳州历史上任职时间最长的州总检察长。《库克政治报告》于4月将该选区评级从“势均力敌”调整为“倾向民主党”。
前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利正在与库珀竞争。尽管沃特利从未竞选过公职，但他在特朗普总统的连任竞选中发挥了关键作用，并获得了总统的支持。共和党计划在该选区投入大量资金，“参议院领导基金”宣布将投入7100万美元的广告预算。
艾奥瓦州：恩斯特退休后，民主党发起希望渺茫的竞选
参议员乔尼·恩斯特宣布不寻求连任后，共和党需要保卫艾奥瓦州的开放席位。该党迅速团结在众议员阿什利·辛普森身后，她自2021年起代表艾奥瓦州进入众议院。“参议院领导基金”宣布将在该选区投入2900万美元的广告预算。
民主党方面，州参议员扎克·瓦尔茨和州众议员乔希·图雷克正在角逐提名，初选定于6月2日举行。但在这个自2008年以来从未选出过民主党参议员、2024年特朗普总统以超过13个百分点优势获胜的州，民主党候选人将面临一场艰难的战斗。
尽管如此，这个以农业为主的州对特朗普关税政策的反对可能会对民主党有利，一些人还指出，州审计长罗布·桑德在州长选举中的势头可能会整体提振民主党选情。《库克政治报告》将该选区评级为“大概率共和党”。
内布拉斯加州：独立候选人再次挑战共和党 incumbent，2024年曾以7个百分点差距落败
独立候选人丹·奥斯本今年再次尝试击败共和党现任议员，代表内布拉斯加州进入参议院。2024年他的长shot竞选最终以比预期更接近的结果落败，仅以7个百分点的差距输给了共和党参议员黛比·费舍尔。
如今，这位工会领袖正在挑战共和党参议员皮特·里基茨。
里基茨曾任内布拉斯加州州长，2023年被任命进入参议院，是国会中最富有的议员之一。他在去年的特别选举中轻松胜出，完成退休参议员本·萨瑟剩余的两年任期。
尽管内布拉斯加州是坚定的红州，但该州也拥有大量无党派选民。如果民主党候选人没有分流奥斯本的选票，这位独立候选人将有机会拿下该席位。《库克政治报告》于4月将该选区评级从“绝对共和党”调整为“大概率共和党”。
德克萨斯州：激烈的共和党初选进入决胜轮，科宁努力保住席位，民主党期待已久的翻盘机会
一场激烈的共和党初选让德克萨斯州参议院选举成为焦点，参议员约翰·科宁正努力保住自己的席位。这位已连任四届的参议员在3月3日的初选中未能获得50%以上的选票，将在5月26日与德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿进入决胜轮。尽管特朗普总统曾承诺将在这场竞选中表态以结束共和党内斗，但他至今尚未发声。
这场决胜轮推迟了共和党候选人将全部精力转向大选的时间，大选期间获胜的共和党候选人将与民主党提名候选人、州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科对决。这位温和派民主党候选人正追逐民主党长久以来的梦想——在德克萨斯州拿下参议院席位。但德克萨斯州自1988年以来从未选出过民主党参议员。
参议院共和党领袖长期以来一直支持科宁，但“参议院领导基金”尚未宣布在该州投入广告预算。《库克政治报告》将该选区评级为“大概率共和党”。
明尼苏达州：蕾妮·古德和亚历克斯·普雷蒂枪击案后，移民执法行动笼罩竞选
参议员蒂娜·史密斯宣布不寻求连任后，众议员安吉·克雷格和明尼苏达州副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根正在角逐民主党提名。尽管民主党领袖大多支持克雷格，但知名进步派人士背书了弗拉纳根。初选定于8月11日举行。
共和党方面，多名候选人正在角逐提名，包括前体育广播主持人米歇尔·塔福亚、前明尼苏达州参议员戴维·汉、前NBA球员罗伊斯·怀特以及退役海军海豹突击队亚当·施瓦茨。
明尼苏达州自2002年以来从未选出过共和党参议员，共和党自20世纪70年代以来从未在该州赢得总统选举。中期选举期间，该州民众最关注的议题无疑将是今年1月移民执法行动中，联邦特工在明尼阿波利斯枪杀蕾妮·古德和亚历克斯·普雷蒂的事件。《库克政治报告》将该选区评级为“大概率民主党”。
11 races that could determine control of the Senate
2026-04-14T13:45:00-0400 / CBS News
Washington — Over a third of the Senate’s seats are up for election in 2026, and until recently, Republicans appeared exceedingly confident about their prospects of remaining in control after the midterm elections this fall.
While Republicans are defending more seats, many of them are in states that President Trump won by comfortable margins in the last election. With few opportunities for pickups and a handful of open seats to defend, the 2026 cycle has posed an uphill battle for Democrats.
But the unpopular war with Iran and stubborn affordability issues have given Democrats cause to be more hopeful about their chances of flipping key seats and even winning control of the Senate. In CBS polling released last month, more voters said they’d prefer to see Democrats control Congress than Republicans.
Political wisdom holds that the party controlling the White House typically loses seats in the House in the midterm elections. Accordingly, Republicans are pushing to hold onto their majority of 53 in the upper chamber to avoid the possibility that Democrats might win majorities in both houses of Congress. Democrats must net four more seats to take the majority.
Here are the key races that will decide control of of the upper chamber:
Maine race pits governor against progressive oyster farmer in primary as Democrats vie to unseat Susan Collins
GOP Sen. Susan Collins is fighting to hold onto her seat in the Senate. The five-term senator has fended off a handful of challenges from Democrats in previous races. But whether she can prevail in a state that Kamala Harris won by almost seven points in 2024 remains to be seen.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills and veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner are vying for the Democratic nomination, with the primary set for June 9. Mills, 78, entered the race at the urging of Democratic Party leaders. But Platner, a 41-year-old who has billed himself as an anti-establishment candidate, has secured backing from prominent progressives, including Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Recent polls have shown Platner leading Mills by significant margins.
Sen. Susan Collins enters the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 27, 2026 in Washington, D.C. Heather Diehl / Getty Images
The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up. Collins, who wields wide influence in the chamber as the chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, is among the most independent-minded in the Republican conference, which has made her the subject of criticism from President Trump. But Senate GOP leaders have stood behind her, and the Senate Leadership Fund, the leading Senate GOP super PAC, announced an investment of $42 million in advertising reservations in the race.
Michigan Senate seat is toss-up with Israel defining Democratic primary, Mike Rogers pursuing 2nd Senate bid
Sen. Gary Peters’ decision not to seek reelection opened up a competitive Democratic primary in the Great Lakes State. Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Michigan health official Abdul El-Sayed are vying for the Democratic nomination in a primary that has become ugly with intraparty fighting in recent months. With the largest concentration of Arabs in the U.S. in Michigan, the U.S.’ relationship with Israel and the war in Gaza have been central issues in the campaign so far. The primary is set for Aug. 4.
On the Republican side, former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers is making another play for a Michigan Senate seat after losing to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in the last election. The Senate Leadership Fund announced a $45 million investment in the race.
Without the advantage of an incumbent in the race, and after the state has flipped between supporting Democrats and Republican presidents in recent elections, Michigan is among the seats considered most vulnerable for Democrats. The Cook Political Report rates Michigan as a toss-up.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown tries comeback bid, running for Vance’s former seat
Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s comeback bid has made for a competitive race in Ohio, despite the Buckeye State’s rightward shift in recent years.
Brown represented Ohio in the Senate for three terms before losing his seat to GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024. And while President Trump won the state at the time by more than 10 percentage points, Brown lost to Moreno by less than four points. With the midterm dynamics, and Brown’s strong working-class brand in the state, Democrats see an opening for a pick-up.
Sen. Sherrod Brown addresses volunteers at a campaign office on Nov. 4, 2024 in Cleveland Heights, Ohio. Stephen Maturen / Getty Images
Sen. John Husted is defending the seat after he was appointed to fill the vacancy left by Vice President JD Vance last year. Husted previously served as Ohio’s lieutenant governor.
Ohio’s 2024 Senate race was the most expensive of the cycle, and this time around the Senate contest is also shaping up to be costly. The race marked the Senate Leadership Fund’s largest ad reservation, with a $79 million investment.
The Cook Political Report shifted its rating from leaning Republican to a toss-up in April.
Alaska: Dan Sullivan defends against challenge by former Rep. Mary Peltola
GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is defending his seat in Alaska amid a challenge from former Rep. Mary Peltola, who in 2022 became the first Democrat to represent the state in the House in 50 years.
Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, ultimately lost her reelection bid for Alaska’s sole House seat in 2024. Though the president won the state by 13 points, Peltola lost by less than three points in the race. And with midterm dynamics traditionally boosting the party opposing the White House, Democrats are hoping she can flip the seat in this year’s election.
The Senate Leadership Fund announced a $15 million investment in advertising to boost Sullivan in the race. The two-term Republican won reelection in his last race by a comfortable margin. And despite Democratic optimism, flipping the seat would be an uphill battle. The Cook Political Report rates the races as leaning Republican.
Georgia: Ossoff tries to win reelection in state Trump won in 2024
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democrat seeking reelection in a state the president won in 2024, making the race a key prize for Republicans as they seek to hold onto the chamber. But a formidable fundraising effort and a messy GOP primary has appeared to improve Ossoff’s outlook.
Ossoff, 39, was elected in early 2021, delivering Democrats one of two runoff victories in the Peach State and securing their majority. But after the state provided the key Democratic victories in the 2020 elections, including supporting Joe Biden at the presidential level, the state backed President Trump in the 2024 election.
Sen. Jon Ossoff arrives on stage during a re-election campaign event in Atlanta, Georgia, on Feb. 7, 2026. Dustin Chambers / Bloomberg via Getty Images
The dynamic positioned Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbent of the cycle heading into the midterm year. But the results of a special election in Georgia in April, along with what could be a prolonged GOP primary fight, have appeared to improve the picture for Ossoff. The Cook Political Report rates the races as leaning Democrat, shifting its rating from a toss-up in April.
Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, along with former college football coach Derek Dooley, are facing off in the primary, which will take place on May 19. Dooley is endorsed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, but the president has yet to endorse in the race, and the primary could go to a runoff in June if no candidate reaches 50%. The Senate Leadership Fund has announced a $44 million advertising investment in the race.
New Hampshire: Former GOP senators seek open seat against Shaheen-backed Democrat
Another Democratic retirement has opened up a competitive Senate race. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen opted not to seek reelection in the Granite State, endorsing Rep. Chris Pappas as her successor. Pappas has represented New Hampshire in the House since 2019.
On the GOP side, former Sen. John Sununu, who was ousted by Shaheen, is mounting a comeback. Former Sen. Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013, also launched a bid to represent New Hampshire in the Senate after falling short against Shaheen in 2014. The Senate Leadership Fund announced a $17 million investment in the race, and has backed Sununu in the Sept. 8 primary.
Although Republicans have controlled the governor’s mansion since 2017, New Hampshire hasn’t elected a Republican to Congress since 2015, and a Republican hasn’t won in the state at the presidential level since 2000. The Cook Political Report rates the races as leaning Democrat.
North Carolina: Democrats optimistic about pickup with top recruit in former Gov. Roy Cooper
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ retirement teed up a major contest in the Tar Heel State, where Democrats see among their best chance at flipping a seat this cycle.
North Carolina hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2008. But Democrats are betting on former Gov. Roy Cooper’s record as a two-term governor and the longest-serving state attorney general in North Carolina’s history. The Cook Political Report rates the races as leaning Democrat, moving its rating from a toss-up in April.
Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is taking on Cooper. Though he has never run for office, Whatley played a key role in Mr. Trump’s reelection effort, and has the president’s support. And Republicans are planning to spend big on the race, with a $71 million advertising investment from the Senate Leadership Fund.
Iowa: Democrats eye longshot bid after Ernst retirement
Republicans are defending an open seat in Iowa after Sen. Joni Ernt announced she wouldn’t seek reelection. The party quickly rallied behind Rep. Ashley Hinson, who’s represented Iowa in the House since 2021.The Senate Leadership Fund announced a $29 million investment in advertising reservations in the race.
Rep. Ashley Hinson speaks to guests during a fundraiser on Aug. 23, 2025 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Scott Olson / Getty Images
On the Democratic side, state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek are facing off for the nomination, with the primary set for June 2. But in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and which Mr. Trump won by more than 13 points in 2024, the Democratic nominee will face an uphill battle.
Still, opposition to Mr. Trump’s tariff policy in the agriculture-heavy state could play in Democrats’ favor, and some have pointed to Auditor Rob Sand’s momentum in the governor’s race as a possible buoy for the party more broadly. The Cook Political Report rates the races as likely Republican.
Nebraska: Independent makes second attempt to unseat Republican after losing by 7 points in 2024
Independent Dan Osborn is making a second attempt to unseat a Republican incumbent to represent Nebraska in the Senate this year, after his long-shot bid ended in a closer than expected race in 2024.
Osborn lost to GOP Sen. Deb Fischer by seven points in 2024. Now, the union leader is taking on GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.
Ricketts, the former Nebraska governor who was appointed to the Senate in 2023, is one of the wealthiest members of Congress. He easily won his bid in a special election last year to serve out the remaining two years of retiring Sen. Ben Sasse’s term.
Although Nebraska is a solidly red state, it’s also home to a large share of nonpartisan voters. If a Democratic candidate doesn’t pull votes away from Osborn, the race could be within striking distance for the independent candidate. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating in April from solid to likely Republican.
Texas: Bitter GOP primary approaches runoff as Cornyn fights to hold his seat and Democrats eye long-sought flip
A bitter GOP primary has brought the Texas Senate race front and center, as Sen. John Cornyn fights to hold onto his seat in the chamber. The four-term senator is heading to a May 26 runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither candidate secured 50% of the vote in the March 3 primary election. And despite committing to make a long-anticipated endorsement in the race to bring the GOP infighting to an end, the president has refrained from weighing in.
The runoff delays the eventual Republican nominee from turning his full attention to the general election, when one of the candidates will take on Texas state Rep. James Talarico. The moderate Democratic nominee is chasing a long-sought party dream of flipping a Senate seat in Texas. But the Lone Star State hasn’t elected a Democrat to represent Texas in the Senate since 1988.
Senate GOP leaders have long backed Cornyn in the race, but the Senate Leadership Fund has yet to announce an advertising investment in the state. The Cook Political Report rates the races as likely Republican.
Minnesota: ICE crackdown hangs over race after Renee Good and Alex Pretti deadly shootings
After Sen. Tina Smith opted not to seek reelection, Rep. Angie Craig and Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are facing off for the Democratic nomination. While party leaders have largely backed Craig, prominent progressive have endorsed Flanagan. The primary is set for Aug. 11.
On the GOP side, a number of Republicans are vying for the nomination, including Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, former Minnesota state Sen. David Hann, former NBA player Royce White and Adam Schwarze, a retired NAVY Seal.
Minnesota hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002 and the GOP hasn’t carried the state in a presidential election since the 1970s. And front of mind for the state heading into the midterms will all but certainly be the deadly shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minneapolis during the immigration crackdown in January. The Cook Political Report rates the races as likely Democrat.
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