2026-04-14T19:30:02.195Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
分析报道
亚伦·布莱克
30分钟前发布
2026年4月14日美国东部时间下午3:30
唐纳德·特朗普总统周日在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地与记者交谈。
朱莉娅·德马雷·尼基森/美联社
唐纳德·特朗普总统最厉害的政治才能之一，就是能让整个共和党都听从他的意志。2024年大选结束后，他在这方面变本加厉，声称自己以“压倒性胜利”获得了“前所未有的强大授权”。
选举结果并未证明这一点，但共和党全盘接受了这套说法。一些议员甚至声称自己应该成为特朗普议程的附庸。（“不管那是什么，我们都要全力支持，”得克萨斯州众议员特洛伊·内尔斯说道，“全盘接受，每一个字都不落下。”）
但对于希望在2026年中期选举中保住席位的共和党人来说，这或许并非明智之举。
特朗普利用这种宽松空间想说什么就说什么，推行美国民众普遍反感的政策，最近一次就是针对伊朗的战争。
这看起来就像他根本不在乎自己的所作所为可能会在不到七个月后彻底摧毁共和党的选举希望——因为在他的权力观里，国会根本无足轻重。
共和党人或许应该就此调整策略。
特朗普的失常行为
特朗普向来我行我素——他曾将其称为“现代总统行事风格”。
但正如《纽约时报》记者彼得·贝克所言，总统近期的言行“将‘是像狐狸一样精明疯狂，还是纯粹的疯子’这场伴随特朗普已久的争论推向了高潮”。
伊朗战争就是典型案例。特朗普发动战争时，并未费心向美国民众建立连贯的开战理由。作战目标不断变动，特朗普似乎连基本细节都不清楚。
他威胁要对伊朗犯下相当于战争罪的行为，甚至在上周警告“今晚整个文明都将覆灭”——随后又改变了主意。
“打开该死的海峡，你们这群疯子，否则你们就会下地狱——走着瞧！真主至大，”特朗普在复活节周日的一则帖子中写道。
他还激化了与深受民众欢迎的美国本土教皇利奥十四世之间因这场战争产生的矛盾。
为此，他甚至发布了一张看似亵渎神明的AI生成图片，将自己描绘成耶稣基督。就连盟友都开始批评这一行为后，特朗普删除了帖子，还荒唐地声称他以为图片里的自己是一名医生——这一说法如今成了社交媒体上无尽的笑柄。
但这绝非孤立事件。
特朗普的言行不断突破边界。近几个月来，在两位死对头去世后，他发表了极其冷漠无情的言论：针对好莱坞导演罗伯·莱纳（暗示这名被谋杀的受害者实则死于“特朗普妄想症综合征”），以及前联邦调查局局长罗伯特·米勒（“太好了，他死了我很高兴”）。
2026年初，特朗普还公开试图夺取格陵兰岛控制权，最终以失败告终。这个多年前首次提出的想法，当时几乎所有人都认为是个笑话。
最近一系列事件甚至让一些前特朗普盟友——比如佐治亚州前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林、坎迪斯·欧文斯和亚历克斯·琼斯，以及特朗普首届政府雇员泰·科布和斯蒂芬妮·格里沙姆——都警告称总统精神失常、疯疯癫癫。他们当中的一些人和其他右翼人士甚至提出了不太可能实现的解决方案：通过第25修正案罢免特朗普。
大多数美国人似乎也注意到了他的言行举止。路透社和益普索最近的一项民调显示，61%的受访者——甚至包括三成共和党人——认同特朗普“随着年龄增长变得反复无常”。其他民调则显示，人们对特朗普的心智敏锐度担忧上升，尽管程度不及几年前对前总统乔·拜登的担忧。
不只是失常；大部分政策也不受欢迎
如果对伊朗战争持怀疑态度的共和党人以为，国内油价上涨和民调支持率下滑会让特朗普收手，那他们可能要三思了。周一，美国开始对伊朗港口实施封锁。
尽管美伊可能很快会举行新一轮和谈，但在上周末谈判前，特朗普明确表示他的军国主义路线不会改变。“我们强大的军队正在集结休整，实际上正期待着下一次征服，”特朗普说道，却未具体说明目标为何。
他多次提出要强迫古巴政权更迭，称他可以随心所欲地处置这个岛国。如果这一计划得逞，这将是2026年仅几个月内的第三次“征服”——此前美国已于1月推翻并抓获了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。
这是特朗普的一贯作风。他推行的几乎所有主要政策都不出所料地不受欢迎。伊朗战争在开战前就民调惨淡，特朗普的关税政策、核心议程法案、对2021年1月6日事件参与者的赦免，以及一系列被定罪的诈骗犯的赦免，也都遭遇了同样的境遇。
即便某些政策最初获得了更多支持，特朗普政府的执行过程也往往让它们更加不得人心。政府效率部削减热门项目经费，以及该政府严苛的驱逐行动，就是最典型的例子。
特朗普的移民打击行动本就被许多美国人认为过于强硬，今年1月明尼阿波利斯两名抗议者被联邦特工杀害后，这一政策彻底引发众怒。但几个月前就已有迹象表明会出问题。
共和党现在该怎么办
目前尚不清楚特朗普是否已经放弃了共和党2026年的选举前景——而且他有充分的理由不放弃。
例如，如果民主党掌控众议院，他们可能会利用传票权力对特朗普政府展开 politically dicey（政治上风险极高）的调查。共和党也非常希望保住参议院席位，以填补任何最高法院空缺。
但特朗普显然更在意在剩余任期内随心所欲，而非考虑其政策对共和党造成的政治后果。
即便共和党人认定总统并未顾及他们的最大利益，他们限制特朗普的选择也十分有限。
其中一些人开始捍卫自己的立法特权，对某些他们不认可的政府行动提出反对。例如在战争问题上，一些共和党人已暗示不会同意政府申请的2000亿美元军费拨款方案。但这远远无法真正限制特朗普发动战争的权力。
即便党内更多人认同格林的观点，认为特朗普已经失控，也几乎无法想象会有足够多的共和党人支持弹劾或启动第25修正案。
值得关注的是，是否会有更多共和党人——尤其是那些担心自己政治前途的人——开始与特朗普拉开更大距离。
他的支持率屡创新低，在某些情况下甚至比1月6日事件后还要糟糕。他疏远了大量2024年投票支持他的选民。民主党在特别选举中表现超出预期，比如上周格林原选区的补选，得票优势比特朗普时代任何时候都要大。
如今距离南卡罗来纳州参议员林赛·格雷厄姆那条著名推文发布已近十年，而格雷厄姆如今已是特朗普的盟友。
“如果我们提名特朗普，我们会被彻底击败……而且我们活该如此，”这位南卡罗来纳州共和党人当时写道。
转眼到了2026年，共和党面临着格雷厄姆此前预言的糟糕局面：他们已经预见到了问题所在——一位比以往任何时候都更加肆无忌惮、为所欲为的总统，而他的所作所为正不断损害自己的政党。
问题日益变成：共和党人能否对此采取行动——甚至能否说服特朗普做出改变。
Republicans’ big 2026 problem: An unhinged Trump who doesn’t seem to care about them
2026-04-14T19:30:02.195Z / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
30 min ago
PUBLISHED Apr 14, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on Sunday.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
One of President Donald Trump’s greatest political talents is bending the rest of his party to his will. After the 2024 election, he went into overdrive on that front, claiming his “landslide” victory gave him an “unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
The results don’t indicate that, but the GOP swallowed it whole. Some lawmakers even argued they should relegate themselves to vassals for Trump’s agenda. (“Whatever that is, we need to embrace it,” Rep. Troy Nehls of Texas said. “All of it. Every single word.”)
But that might not have been the wisest strategy for Republicans hoping to keep their seats in the 2026 midterm elections.
Trump has used that wide latitude to say seemingly whatever he pleases and to pursue policies that the American people decidedly dislike, most recently with the Iran war.
It’s almost as if he doesn’t care that what he’s doing could torpedo the GOP’s hopes in less than seven months — because Congress doesn’t matter much to his view of power.
Republicans might want to proceed accordingly.
Trump’s unhinged behavior
Trump has always conducted business in his way — he once called it “modern-day presidential.
But as the New York Times’ Peter Baker puts it well, the president’s recent conduct has “turbocharged the crazy-like-a-fox-or-just-plain-crazy debate” that has stalked Trump.
The Iran war is a case in point. Trump launched it without bothering to build a consistent case for it to the American people. The objectives have regularly shifted, and Trump seems unfamiliar with basic details.
He has threatened Iran with apparent war crimes and even warned last week that “a whole civilization will die tonight” — before averting that course.
“Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” Trump said in one missive on Easter Sunday.
He’s also exacerbated a feud with the popular and American-born Pope Leo XIV over the war.
As part of it, he even posted a seemingly blasphemous AI-generated image depicting himself as Jesus Christ. When even allies started criticizing that, Trump deleted the post and bizarrely claimed he thought the image showed him as a doctor — a contention now the butt of endless social media jokes.
But it’s hardly an isolated incident.
Trump’s behavior continues to push the bounds. He has also in recent months posted extremely callous thoughts after the deaths of two nemeses: Hollywood director Rob Reiner (suggesting the murder victim had instead died from “TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME”) and former FBI Director Robert Mueller (“Good, I’m glad he’s dead”).
And the president spent the early part of 2026 engaged in a public but ultimately failed effort to gain control of Greenland, an idea that nearly everyone dismissed as a joke when it was first floated years ago.
The most recent events have led even some former Trump allies — like ex-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Candace Owens and Alex Jones, as well as first Trump administration employees Ty Cobb and Stephanie Grisham — to warn that the president is crazy or insane. Some of them and others on the right have even floated the unlikely solution of removing Trump from office using the 25th Amendment.
A majority of Americans seems to notice his behavior too. A recent poll from Reuters and Ipsos showed 61% — and even 3 in 10 Republicans — agreed that Trump has “become erratic with age”. Other polls suggest rising concerns about Trump’s mental acuity, though not to the same extent as with former President Joe Biden a couple years ago.
It’s not just unhinged; most of it is also unpopular
If Republicans skeptical of the Iran war thought Trump might back down amid rising gas prices at home and declining poll numbers, they might want to think again. On Monday, the US began a blockade of Iranian ports.
And while there could soon be another round of US-Iran peace talks, Trump made clear before last weekend’s negotiations that his militarism wasn’t going anywhere. “Our great military is loading up and resting, looking forward, actually, to its next conquest,” Trump said, without specifying what that would be.
He’s repeatedly floated forcing regime change in Cuba, saying he could “do anything I want” with the island. If that happened, it would be the third “conquest” in just a few months in 2026, after the US ousted and captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.
This is a pattern with Trump. Nearly all of the major policies he’s pursued have been rather predictably unpopular. The Iran war polled very poorly before it began but so did Trump’s tariffs, his big agenda bill, his pardons of January 6, 2021, defendants and a series of convicted fraudsters, and much more.
And even when the policies started with more support, the Trump administration’s implementation has often made them more unpopular. That’s been most notably the case with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts to popular programs and the administration’s harsh deportation campaign.
Trump’s immigration crackdown, which many Americans long thought was too heavy-handed, blew up after two protesters were killed by federal agents in Minneapolis in January. But the writing had been on the wall for months.
What Republicans do now
It’s not clear that Trump has given up on Republicans in 2026 — and he’s got plenty of reason not to.
If Democrats won the House, they could launch politically dicey investigations of the Trump administration using their subpoena power, for instance. And Republicans would very much like to hold the Senate to fill any Supreme Court vacancies.
But Trump certainly seems to care more about doing what he wants in the time he has left in office rather than the political consequences for his party.
And even if Republicans conclude that the president doesn’t have their best interests at heart, their options for keeping him in check are limited.
Some of them are starting to stand up for their legislative prerogatives and push back on certain administration actions they don’t like. On the war, for example, some Republicans have signaled they won’t agree to the administration’s requested $200 billion funding package. But that’s a far cry from truly limiting Trump’s authority to prosecute the war.
And even if more in the party embraced Greene’s view that Trump has lost it, it’s nearly unthinkable that enough Republicans would back impeachment or using the 25th Amendment.
What could be telling is if more Republicans — especially those who fear for their careers — start to carve more distance from Trump.
His poll numbers are hitting new lows, in some cases even worse than after January 6. He’s alienated a large swath of 2024 Trump voters. And Democrats are over-performing in special elections, like the one for Greene’s old seat last week, by larger margins than ever in the Trump era.
It’s been nearly a decade since Sen. Lindsey Graham, now a Trump ally, posted his infamous tweet.
“If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed…….and we will deserve it,” the South Carolina Republican said.
Fast forward to 2026, and the GOP has a bad situation that, like Graham previewed, it can see coming: A president who is more emboldened than ever to do whatever he wants — which is regularly hurting his party.
The question is increasingly whether Republicans can do anything about it — or even convince Trump to try.
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