2026-04-04T10:00:55.277Z / CNN 政治频道
作者：艾伦·布莱克
发布时间：2026年4月4日，美国东部时间早上6:00
杰弗里·科瓦尔斯基/法新社/盖蒂图片社
随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的民调支持率在伊朗战事期间再创新低，迄今最确凿的证据出现了一个长期以来被预期的现象：感到懊悔的特朗普选民。
尽管相当一部分特朗普选民此前就心存疑虑，但近期一系列民调显示，这些疑虑正逐渐演变为更严重的情绪。
马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校的舆观（YouGov）民调——我们此前曾就该议题报道过这项民调——提供了最有力的证据。
该民调并未直接询问选民是否对自己的投票感到懊悔，而是提供了一系列更细致的选项，包括“有些担忧”“态度摇摆”和“有些懊悔”，而非仅仅是彻底的后悔。
2025年4月，74%的特朗普选民明确拒绝上述任何一项选项，表示自己对投票结果“非常有信心”。但如今这一比例已降至62%。
选择态度不那么坚定的选项的特朗普选民占比达38%，是哈里斯选民中持相同态度比例（19%）的两倍。
另有21%的特朗普选民表示，他们仍对自己的投票“有信心”，但“有些担忧”。
而拒绝表明对自己的投票有信心、至少表示“态度摇摆”的选民比例，已从2025年4月的8%升至如今的17%。
仅有5%的选民表示他们对自己的投票感到懊悔，如果可以重来会投给其他人。但这一数据似乎实际上低估了懊悔的程度。
当被要求重新投出2024年的选票时，事实上仅有84%的特朗普选民表示会再次投票给特朗普，而哈里斯选民中这一比例为91%。
因此，尽管有些人可能不愿将其称为“懊悔”，但有16%的选民显然会在事后反思中做出不同选择。
几乎同一时间开展的“数据力量-维拉斯ight”民调进一步印证了选民懊悔的情况。
该民调发现，13%的特朗普选民表示他们“非常”（5%）或“有点”（8%）后悔自己的投票——是哈里斯选民中该比例的两倍。
在30岁以下的特朗普选民（17%）和西班牙裔选民（16%）中，懊悔情绪尤为突出。
表达懊悔情绪的特朗普选民比例不仅是哈里斯选民的两倍，也比去年4月和10月《华盛顿邮报》与益普索的民调中6%至7%的特朗普选民懊悔比例翻了一番。
杰夫·斯文森/《华盛顿邮报》/盖蒂图片社
需要强调的是，这些民调显示，有八分之一到六分之一的特朗普选民对自己2024年的投票存在不同程度的懊悔。如果这些选民在2026年中期选举中倒向共和党对立面，那几乎无疑会成为民主党人的“浪潮选举”。
而这绝非特朗普选民阵营动摇的唯一证据。尽管有大量言论称自称支持“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的选民支持伊朗战事，但显然特朗普阵营中有大量选民并不支持。
本周的一项CNN民调显示，选民在该议题及其他诸多议题上的态度确实出现了松动。
以下是2024年投票给特朗普的选民中，对特朗普持不认可态度的比例：
- 整体：22%
- 移民政策：15%
- 外交事务：25%
- 伊朗议题：28%
- 经济政策：30%
- 通胀问题：39%
- 汽油价格：45%
这些比例意味着，特朗普的选民基础中有相当一部分人对当下一些核心议题——以及他竞选时主打部分核心议题——持不认可态度。在这一节点上，这些选民是否从字面意义上认同“懊悔”一词已经无关紧要。
如果还需要更直观的证据证明特朗普的选民阵营对他的不满程度，不妨看看CNN民调中的这一细节：
“工薪阶层白人选民”曾是特朗普凭借其强大政治影响力牢牢锁定的选民群体。在2025年2月的CNN民调中，63%的该群体选民认可特朗普的表现。
而在最新的CNN民调中，他在该群体中的支持率仅为49%。
Trump voter regret is clearly registering now
2026-04-04T10:00:55.277Z / CNN Politics
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
PUBLISHED Apr 4, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
US President Donald Trump arrives to speak during his final campaign rally at the Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on the early morning of November 5, 2024.
Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images
As President Donald Trump’s poll numbers have hit new lows amid the Iran war, there’s now the firmest evidence yet of a long-anticipated dynamic: the regretful Trump voter.
While a fair number of Trump voters have had reservations for a while, a series of polls in recent weeks shows those reservations are starting to tip over into something more serious.
A YouGov poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst — a survey we’ve spotlighted before on this issue — is the hardest evidence.
Rather than ask a straight question about whether people regret their votes, the poll offers a sliding scale of more-nuanced options, including “some concerns,” “mixed feelings” and “some regrets,” rather than just full-on regret.
In April 2025, 74% of Trump voters scorned any of those options and said they were “very confident” in their vote. But today, that number has declined to 62%.
The 38% of Trump voters who chose a less-resolute option was double the 19% of Kamala Harris voters who did the same.
Another 21% of Trump voters said they were still “confident” in their votes but had “some concerns.”
And the percentage who declined to express confidence in their vote — and said they at least had “mixed feelings” — has gone from 8% in April 2025 to 17% today.
Just 5% said they regret their vote and would vote differently if they could. But that appears to actually undersell the level of regret.
When given a chance to recast their 2024 votes, in fact, just 84% of Trump voters said they would vote for him again — compared to 91% for Harris voters.
So while some might prefer to not call it “regret,” 16% would apparently do things differently with hindsight.
A Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll from around the same time fills out the regretful picture.
It found 13% of Trump voters said they either “strongly” (5%) or “somewhat” (8%) regret their vote — double the number for Harris voters.
Regret was particularly high among Trump voters under 30 years old (17%) and Hispanics (16%).
The percentage of Trump voters expressing regret is not only double the percentage for Harris voters; it’s also double the 6-7% of Trump voters who said the same in polling last April and October from the Washington Post and Ipsos.
Supporters at a campaign rally for President Donald Trump at Arnold Palmer Regional Airport on October 20, 2024 in Latrobe, Pennsylvania.
Jeff Swensen/The Washington Post/Getty Images
Just to underscore, these surveys suggest between 1 in 8 and 1 in 6 Trump voters express some measure of regret for their 2024 votes. Were those percentages to desert the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections, it would almost undoubtedly be a wave election for Democrats.
And this is hardly the only proof of Trump’s base softening on him. While there has been plenty of talk about how self-described MAGA supporters back the Iran war, it’s clear lots of voters in Trump’s base don’t.
And a CNN poll this week showed a real softness on that issue and plenty of others.
Here are the percentages of 2024 Trump voters who disapproved of him in each of these areas:
- Overall: 22%
- Immigration: 15%
- Foreign affairs: 25%
- Iran: 28%
- Economy: 30%
- Inflation: 39%
- Gas prices: 45%
Those are large chunks of Trump’s voter base who disapprove of him on some of the central issues of the day — and some of the central issues he campaigned on. At this point, whether those voters technically subscribe to the word “regret” is kind of beside the point.
And in case it wasn’t clear how much Trump’s base has soured on him, consider this nugget from CNN’s poll:
“Working-class White voters” has become shorthand for the kind of voter Trump has locked down to great political effect. And 63% approved of him in a February 2025 CNN poll.
His approval rating among them in the new CNN poll? Just 49%.
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