5 things to know for April 1: Artemis II mission, Birthright citizenship, Iran war, White House ballroom, Tiger Woods’ crash

2026-04-01 6:36 AM ET / CNN

Happy April Fools’ Day, readers. For the next several hours, your trust should be a bit more … negotiable. Stay sharp out there, and consider this your invitation to stir up a little harmless mischief of your own.

Here’s what else you need to know to get up to speed and on with your day.

NASA’s Artemis II Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft at Launch Pad 39B at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Gregg Newton/AFP/Getty Images

1️⃣ Artemis II mission

NASA appears to be on the cusp of sending a crew to the moon for the first time since the 1970s. The current target for Artemis II’s liftoff is a two-hour launch window that opens at 6:24 p.m. ET today. NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, alongside Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen, will board the Orion spacecraft atop the Space Launch System rocket and accelerate to space from zero to 500 miles per hour in just two seconds. A few hours later, Orion will separate from the rocket, giving the crew a chance to pilot the spacecraft manually. During the 10-day mission, the astronauts will loop around the moon — but they won’t touch down on the lunar surface. Here’s why the landing will have to wait.

2️⃣ Birthright citizenship

The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today on President Donald Trump’s executive order attempting to end automatic birthright citizenship — the constitutional guarantee that anyone born in the US is a citizen. The case comes more than a year after Trump signed the order. He has since repeatedly argued that the right was originally intended for the babies of slaves after the Civil War and should no longer apply. Political experts say this case will not be easy to win — a ruling for Trump would upend a long-standing tenet of constitutional law and have significant implications for US citizens, who could face new hurdles in documenting newborns.

Trump says he’ll attend Supreme Court arguments on birthright citizenship

President Donald Trump told reporters he is planning to attend oral arguments at the Supreme Court over his executive order ending birthright citizenship.

1:41 • Source: CNN

Trump says he’ll attend Supreme Court …
1:41

3️⃣ Iran war

The White House says President Trump has an “important update” on the war with Iran and will address the nation tonight at 9 p.m. ET. Trump has said he foresees a conclusion to the war within two to three weeks and has emphasized that a deal could potentially be reached sooner. Iran, however, is prepared for “at least six months” of war, the country’s foreign minister said in an interview Tuesday. The minister also said Tehran is not in direct negotiations with Washington, pushing back on Trump’s claims that the US is in “serious discussions” with a “new, and more reasonable regime” in Iran.

4️⃣ White House ballroom

A federal judge on Tuesday ruled that President Trump’s White House ballroom construction “has to stop,” temporarily halting the $400 million project. “The President of the United States is the steward of the White House for future generations of First Families. He is not, however, the owner!” Judge Richard Leon wrote. Leon, an appointee of former President George W. Bush, paused his ruling for two weeks to give the government time to appeal — a step the Trump administration said it would take immediately. Trump has argued that the project isn’t subject to oversight and that he should be able to proceed without any serious scrutiny. He has promised it will be complete in the summer of 2028, months before he leaves office.

5️⃣ Tiger Woods’ crash

Golf legend Tiger Woods says he is stepping away for a period of time to seek treatment following a rollover car crash in Florida late last week. The statement came hours after he pleaded not guilty Tuesday to DUI charges related to the incident near his home in Jupiter Island. Woods has been involved in four vehicle incidents since 2009. He was arrested once before for DUI but faced limited consequences. In his statement, Woods said he’s committed to healing, but his legal future after the latest crash is less certain, especially because of his alleged refusal to submit to a urine test.

Tiger Woods stands by his overturned vehicle in Jupiter Island, Florida, on Friday.

Jason Oteri/AP

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And finally…

CNN Producer Beats 1 in 2B odds of nailing final four bracket

A CNN booking producer just beat the odds to nail down the NCAA’s Final Four bracket. CNN’s Erin Burnett and Harry Enten talk about how rare this is, especially this year.

1:39 • Source: CNN

CNN Producer Beats 1 in 2B odds of nailing final …
1:39

▶️ CNN Producer beats 1 in 2 billion odds of nailing final four bracket

A CNN booking producer just beat the odds to nail down the NCAA’s Final Four bracket. CNN’s Erin Burnett and Harry Enten talk about how rare this is, especially this year.

Today’s edition of 5 Things AM was edited and produced by CNN’s Andrew Torgan.

美国总统特朗普2025年1月底开启第二个任期后，曾多次表达对欧洲和北约盟友的不满。 （路透社档案照片）

美国总统特朗普告诉英国媒体，北约拒绝加入伊朗战争后，他正在认真考虑让美国退出北约。

特朗普在《每日电讯报》星期三（4月1日）发布的专访中称，他“一直知道北约是‘纸老虎’（Paper Tiger）”，并暗示美国考虑退出北约。

他被问及美伊战争后会否考虑留在北约时说：“我会说，不会再考虑了。”

自特朗普去年1月开启第二个总统任期以来，他多次表达对欧洲和北约盟友的不满。上述表态是迄今为止最强烈的迹象，显示白宫不再将欧洲视为可靠的防务伙伴。

特朗普早前要求盟国派遣军舰，以重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。不过，北约成员国一直不愿意帮助重开这条石油运输要道。

美国和以色列2月28日对伊朗发动打击后，德黑兰已封锁霍尔木兹海峡至今，导致全球油气价格飙涨。

特朗普认为，北约国家没有自发参与霍尔木兹海峡行动，令他难以置信。“我们（美国）一直都在自动参与，包括乌克兰。乌克兰不是我们的问题。那是一次考验，我们支持他们（北约），而且一直都会支持，但他们没有支持我们。”

美国国务卿鲁比奥也在特朗普接受《每日电讯报》采访前不久，告诉美国福克斯新闻，伊朗战争结束后，美国将不得不“重新审视”自己的北约成员国身份。

“如果留在北约仅意味着我们要在欧洲遭受攻击时保卫欧洲，而我们需要的时候，北约却拒绝给予我们军事基地使用权，那这可不是什么好安排，很难让人继续参与。”

特朗普对鲁比奥的表态感到欣慰。

他还特别点名批评英国，指责首相斯塔默拒绝参与美以对伊战争，并暗示英国皇家海军无法胜任这项任务：“你们太老了，而且你们的航空母舰也不管用。”

Injured hiker’s dog rescued by helicopter week after getting lost in wild New Zealand forest

April 1, 2026 / 8:00 AM EDT / CBS/AP

When a hiker fell from a 180-foot waterfall in wild New Zealand bush, rescuers were forced to evacuate the badly hurt woman without her dog, which couldn’t be found. After strangers raised thousands of dollars for a search, border collie Molly was flown to safety by a helicopter pilot who was determined to reunite pet and owner.

A week earlier, an emergency rescue helicopter found the woman with bruises and lacerations after a fall at a rocky spot at the waterfall on the South Island’s West Coast. She was airlifted on March 24 but they were forced to leave without her pet.

Molly was bedraggled and hungry when she was found Tuesday, just a few meters from the spot where the hiker had been lucky to survive.

“I contacted her in hospital and said I’d go for a look for it,” said Matt Newton, the owner-operator of Precision Helicopters New Zealand, which is based at Hokitika Gorge near the Arahura River where Molly went missing. “I went and looked for the dog several times and no avail.”

In this photo released by Precision Helicopters Ltd, Wayne Holmes holds his dog Bingo, left, after the rescue of Molly, right, at a waterfall on the Arahura River on the West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. Precision Helicopters Ltd via AP

Unwilling to give up, Newton and his family launched a fundraiser to pay for more flying hours and advanced search gear. Offers of help and donations poured in, with strangers pledging more than 11,000 New Zealand dollars ($6,300) for a search.

It was enough to fund three more hours in a helicopter using thermal imaging equipment. On Tuesday, Newton took to the skies with a veterinary nurse, volunteer searchers and a dog named Bingo in a renewed search for Molly.

“We struck jackpot within about an hour,” he said. “As we made our way up the river, we could see the dog in the thermal and then we could visually see it.”

There had been no sign of Molly at the waterfall when Newton previously searched the spot, he said. It wasn’t clear if the dog had also fallen from the waterfall or if she had eventually made her way to the spot where her injured owner landed.

The helicopter dropped low enough for a volunteer to disembark with the rescue dog Bingo to help coax Molly to safety and keep her calm.

In this photo released by Precision Helicopters Ltd, Molly peers out of the door of a helicopter after her rescue from a waterfall on the Arahura River on the West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. Precision Helicopters Ltd via AP

Newton thought the dog had survived by eating feral animals during her week in the wilderness.

“She knew what we were up to, I think,” he said. “She behaved real well. She didn’t run away and she was pleased to be rescued.”

The dog was in “surprisingly good condition,” the pilot said. He sent word back to the helicopter base, where other volunteers waited to take turns in the search. “Instead we just had a big barbecue and all had a cuddle with Molly.”

Hours after the dog’s rescue, her owner, still battered from her fall, arrived for a tearful reunion.

“I think that’ll speed up her healing process somewhat,” Newton said. “Having your dog back, that’s for sure.”

The helicopter company expressed gratitude for the public’s help in a post on social media.

“Thank you to everybody who donated & volunteered to help, the success of saving Molly would not have been possible without this joint effort,” the company wrote on Facebook, accompanied by a video of the rescue. “What a happy ending to reunite her with Jess after her accident.”

In this photo released by Precision Helicopters Ltd, Molly is reunited with her owner Jessica Johnston after her rescue from a waterfall on the Arahura River on the West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. Precision Helicopters Ltd via AP

The incident comes just days after another dramatic canine rescue in the U.S. Last week, police used a helicopter to rescue a goldendoodle after the dog was seen struggling to stay afloat in the freezing Seneca River near Syracuse, New York.

消息：美国驻伊朗大使馆旧址遭袭 建筑外墙受损

2026年4月1日 18:32 / 联合早报

法新社记者报道，美国驻伊朗大使馆旧址附近区域星期三（4月1日）凌晨遭到袭击，建筑物部分外墙受损。

伊朗梅尔通讯社发布的画面显示，德黑兰市中心遭袭后，商店窗户炸飞；使馆旧址附近的区域散落着碎片，围墙似乎已受损。具体袭击目标是什么，目前还不清楚。

位于德黑兰的这座建筑如今用作博物馆，名为“间谍巢穴”（Den of Spies）。建筑外墙上涂满了反美壁画，已成为伊朗与美国之间长达数十年敌意的象征。

伊朗1979年爆发伊斯兰革命，推翻西方支持的巴列维王朝。当时，反美情绪高涨的伊朗年轻人冲进美国大使馆，将馆内52名美国人扣为人质长达444天。

此后，美国切断与伊朗的外交关系，至今未复交。伊朗的亲政府支持者每年11月都会聚集在事发地，纪念这一事件。

自美国和以色列2月28日对伊朗发动军事打击以来，伊朗与美以一直处于交战状态。

消息：美国驻伊朗大使馆旧址遭袭 建筑外墙受损

2026年4月1日 18:32 / 联合早报

法新社记者报道，美国驻伊朗大使馆旧址附近区域星期三（4月1日）凌晨遭到袭击，建筑物部分外墙受损。

伊朗梅尔通讯社发布的画面显示，德黑兰市中心遭袭后，商店窗户炸飞；使馆旧址附近的区域散落着碎片，围墙似乎已受损。具体袭击目标是什么，目前还不清楚。

位于德黑兰的这座建筑如今用作博物馆，名为“间谍巢穴”（Den of Spies）。建筑外墙上涂满了反美壁画，已成为伊朗与美国之间长达数十年敌意的象征。

伊朗1979年爆发伊斯兰革命，推翻西方支持的巴列维王朝。当时，反美情绪高涨的伊朗年轻人冲进美国大使馆，将馆内52名美国人扣为人质长达444天。

此后，美国切断与伊朗的外交关系，至今未复交。伊朗的亲政府支持者每年11月都会聚集在事发地，纪念这一事件。

自美国和以色列2月28日对伊朗发动军事打击以来，伊朗与美以一直处于交战状态。

Trump’s threats of targeting water plants in Iran, a potential war crime, alarm Gulf allies

2026-04-01T08:00:54.858Z / CNN

By Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Hansler

PUBLISHED Apr 1, 2026, 4:00 AM ET

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on March 29, 2026.

Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

After President Donald Trump floated on Monday the possibility of expanding the Iran war by potentially striking water treatment plants in Iran, some Gulf countries reiterated grave concerns to the Trump administration about any strikes on civilian infrastructure and the risk of an intensifying tit-for-tat escalation, according to four regional sources.

Civilian infrastructure sites like water plants are clearly banned as targets by international law, but throughout the war following US and Israeli strikes, Iran has retaliated against US allies in the Gulf region, many of whom rely heavily on desalination to provide water for citizens due to few fresh water sources. If Iran responded to a US strike on a water plant by hitting a similar facility in a nearby country, it could trigger devastating consequences.

“It will be a huge catastrophe if they strike, we rely on desalination for almost all drinking water,” said one regional official, explaining that the concerns about pursuing these strikes have been clearly articulated to Trump administration officials in the past and were reiterated after Trump’s Truth Social post on Monday.

While several countries have privately reached out to the Trump administration to warn against such attacks, they’ve so far avoided publicly rebuking the US president.

Targeting critical civilian infrastructure, which includes water plants and potentially power plants that have also been the subject of Trump threats, could be considered a war crime. The Geneva Conventions and its protocols define objects indispensable to the survival of a civilian population as illegal military targets, and clearly cites “drinking water installations and supplies and irrigation work” as falling into that category.

“Desalination plants are purely civilian infrastructure. There is no legal argument whatsoever for attacking them,” said Kenneth Roth, a former executive director of Human Rights Watch, adding that those advising Trump have “a responsibility not to implement any illegal order.”

Iran gets only a small fraction of its water from desalination plants. But nearby countries including Qatar and Bahrain produce more than half of their drinking water using the technology, which converts seawater into potable water by removing the salt.

The private chorus of voices encouraging the US to steer clear of committing potential war crimes that could escalate the conflict does not include every player in the region.

Some nations don’t have the bandwidth to fight against potential strikes from Iran because they are entirely consumed by defending against the current Iranian attacks, said a senior Gulf diplomat.

There are also intense ongoing efforts to broker US-Iran negotiations, and a separate regional source said that scolding the administration privately could undermine the facilitators’ efforts.

Experts warned that US allies’ hesitancy to condemn any illegal threats by the Trump was a dangerous approach.

“Being quiet in the face of lawlessness, hoping that somehow you’ll mitigate it through other efforts is just naive,” Roth said. “Trump will take anything he can get if there’s not an outpouring of opposition to it.”

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine responded to questions about the potential targeting of desalination plants on Tuesday by saying that the US military always “strikes lawful targets in accordance with normal procedures.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also said that the administration will follow the law.

“Of course this administration, the United States Armed Forces, will always act within the confines of the law, but with respect to achieving the full objectives of operations going to move forward unabated, and he expects the Iranian regime to make a deal with the administration,” Leavitt said on Monday.

A desalination plant operates in Rishon LeZion, Israel, in 2014.

Dan Balilty/AP/File

Just days before Trump’s Truth Social post threatening the possible targeting of desalination plants, the G7 foreign ministers signed onto a joint statement calling for the immediate end to attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed that statement on behalf of the US.

While the threat of potentially illegal strikes coming from Trump related to water resources is a new one, he has made other similar threats throughout the course of this war. In recent weeks Trump threatened to “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants, which legal experts say would also violate international law, if Iran did not reach a diplomatic agreement with the US. Gulf allies similarly raised concerns with Trump administration officials through private channels at the time of that threat, which was also posted on social media.

Striking Iranian desalination plants is also unlikely to attract more allied support in this conflict, something Trump had repeatedly said he does not need but has chastised allies for not providing.

“If you threaten to do something that either could be or is a war crime, it frightens allies, because allies don’t want to be a part of something that could be a war crime,” said Andrew Friedman, a director at the Human Rights Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Earlier this week, an Indian worker was killed ‌in an Iranian attack on a power and water ⁠desalination plant in Kuwait, according to a post from the country’s Ministry ‌of ⁠Electricity and Water. But the war has not escalated to the point where water resources have been widely targeted.

Still, Iran has already shown it will retaliate for attacks on its infrastructure. It has carried out many attacks on energy resources throughout the region.

Whether or not strikes escalate to the point that water becomes a central target for either side remains an open question.

In early March, Iran accused the US of attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island, and Iranian officials warned of retaliation.

“Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned at the time. “The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.”

“The crime committed by US-Zionist alliance in targeting the desalination plant on Qeshm Island was carried out with support of a US base in a neighboring country in south. This aggression will met a proportionate response,” Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said at the time.

A US defense official told CNN that it was not a US strike. But the state of the desalination plant and what caused the alleged disruption remains unclear.

特朗普案头的六张战局牌：每条路径皆是高风险政治豪赌

2026年4月1日 18:49 / 联合早报

分析普遍认为，美国虽手握多种军事与外交选项，但现阶段没有任何一种方案能在短时间内实现特朗普总统最初提出的“政权更迭”目标。图为特朗普3月31日在白宫签署行政命令后回答记者提问。 （法新社）

（华盛顿综合讯） 美以伊战争进入关键阶段，美国总统特朗普正面临一系列可能改变战争走向的重大抉择。从有限地面突袭到扩大空袭，从见好就收撤军到重返谈判桌，每条路径都意味着截然不同的战略风险与政治后果。

综合目前的兵力部署与华府内部讨论，特朗普面前大致有以下六条主要战争路径：

一、有限地面行动

目前较务实可行的选项，是发动规模有限的地面突袭，争取拿下哈尔克岛或霍尔木兹海峡关键岛屿。

哈尔克岛承担了伊朗约九成的石油出口，一旦落入美军手中，对伊朗的能源出口和财政收入将是一记重击。但夺取哈尔克岛恐怕会引发伊朗对海湾能源设施的报复行动，这将进一步推高全球油价。此外，即便占领岛屿，也难以完全杜绝伊朗通过无人机、快艇等非对称手段干扰航运。

因此，这选项未必能直接改变战争走向。

二、 核设施突袭行动

美方也可能突袭伊斯法罕（Isfahan）或纳坦兹（Natanz）附近的地下核设施，夺取伊朗约440公斤高浓缩铀库存。

一旦得手，美方不仅能在未来相当长时间压制伊朗核能力，还能为特朗普提供“赢得战争”的政治依据。

但这类行动风险极高，美军须深入伊朗腹地建立防御圈以对抗炮火和无人机袭击，这实际上意味着局部占领伊朗领土。

分析认为，若无精确情报支持，行动或耗时数天甚至一周；万一行动受挫，势必导致严重人员伤亡。这会给特朗普带来巨大的政治冲击。

三、持续扩大空袭

继续扩大空袭规模，也是美方可能采取的另一个路径；无需投入地面部队，短期政治风险相对较低。

理论上，持续轰炸是有可能削弱伊军实力，甚至迫使德黑兰让步。然而，战争首月的密集打击已严重扰动全球能源供应，导致美国国内生活费飙涨，美军自身武器储备也在快速消耗。

若战争长期持续，美方的战略收益也将随之递减，甚至导致美军过于疲弱而无法应对它认为包括中国在内的其他全球威胁。

四、宣布胜利后撤军

美方也可在适当时机宣布达成目标，然后撤军。

特朗普近期多次暗示美国已大幅削弱伊朗的导弹与无人机能力，并暗示主要军事目标已大致实现。在这种情况下，美方可能复制去年6月美国以色列联手对伊朗发动短期军事行动的模式，在政治层面宣布胜利，然后撤出战场。

但分析认为，这种“见好就收”的做法或为伊朗恢复导弹与核计划、重建防御体系留下空间。这有可能导致美以数月后必须再次介入以阻止威胁重燃，使地区局势长期不稳定。此外，若容许伊朗政权存续，很可能让伊朗将“顶住外敌打击”转化为内部政治胜利进而巩固政权。

五、与伊朗谈判达成协议

外交谈判始终是一条重要路径，特朗普政府在加强军事部署的同时，仍不断释放谈判信号。

随着战争成本上升，美伊都有着达成协议的现实动机，但双方诉求差距仍巨大。美国要求伊方放弃弹道导弹、停止使用代理人并放弃核武器；伊朗则寻求不再受攻击的承诺、解除经济制裁并主掌霍尔木兹海峡收取通行费。

由于美伊双方都不愿在核心诉求上妥协，谈判料将旷日持久。即使达成协议，伊朗也很可能利用制裁解除后获得的收入，重建原本已被摧毁的敌对能力。

六、全面入侵伊朗

全面入侵伊朗的这个可能性，目前仍然极低。

即使五角大楼再增派1万人，美军在伊朗地面的兵力规模最多也只达约1万7000人，远低于2003年入侵伊拉克时投入的17万员兵力规模。军事专家指出，当前的部署特征指向的是“有限且高强度”的突袭行动，旨在稳定海峡而非大规模常规占领。

由于全面入侵需更大规模、更多种配置的部队，且政治成本与操作难度巨大，目前并非现实政策选项。目前所部署的兵力，更多只作为“潜在威胁”，是外交谈判桌上的重要筹码。

分析：美厌战信号或助伊朗争取更好谈判条件

让特朗普头痛的并非没有选项，而是现有选项几乎都难以让他在短时间内，兑现最初提出的“政权更迭”目标。

杜克大学政治学与公共政策教授费弗（Peter Feaver）说：“我们（美国）在给伊朗造成巨大痛苦的当儿，却其实也在向对方发出信号，暴露我们自己也在经历痛苦，而且我们并不乐于如此。这等于是告诉对方，他们‘只要活下来就是胜利’的策略也许奏效了。如果他们因此而继续撑下去，下周可能会比这一周在谈判上获得更好的协议，这就会让谈判变得更加复杂。”

特朗普案头的六张战局牌：每条路径皆是高风险政治豪赌

2026年4月1日 18:49 / 联合早报

分析普遍认为，美国虽手握多种军事与外交选项，但现阶段没有任何一种方案能在短时间内实现特朗普总统最初提出的“政权更迭”目标。图为特朗普3月31日在白宫签署行政命令后回答记者提问。 （法新社）

（华盛顿综合讯） 美以伊战争进入关键阶段，美国总统特朗普正面临一系列可能改变战争走向的重大抉择。从有限地面突袭到扩大空袭，从见好就收撤军到重返谈判桌，每条路径都意味着截然不同的战略风险与政治后果。

综合目前的兵力部署与华府内部讨论，特朗普面前大致有以下六条主要战争路径：

一、有限地面行动

目前较务实可行的选项，是发动规模有限的地面突袭，争取拿下哈尔克岛或霍尔木兹海峡关键岛屿。

哈尔克岛承担了伊朗约九成的石油出口，一旦落入美军手中，对伊朗的能源出口和财政收入将是一记重击。但夺取哈尔克岛恐怕会引发伊朗对海湾能源设施的报复行动，这将进一步推高全球油价。此外，即便占领岛屿，也难以完全杜绝伊朗通过无人机、快艇等非对称手段干扰航运。

因此，这选项未必能直接改变战争走向。

二、 核设施突袭行动

美方也可能突袭伊斯法罕（Isfahan）或纳坦兹（Natanz）附近的地下核设施，夺取伊朗约440公斤高浓缩铀库存。

一旦得手，美方不仅能在未来相当长时间压制伊朗核能力，还能为特朗普提供“赢得战争”的政治依据。

但这类行动风险极高，美军须深入伊朗腹地建立防御圈以对抗炮火和无人机袭击，这实际上意味着局部占领伊朗领土。

分析认为，若无精确情报支持，行动或耗时数天甚至一周；万一行动受挫，势必导致严重人员伤亡。这会给特朗普带来巨大的政治冲击。

三、持续扩大空袭

继续扩大空袭规模，也是美方可能采取的另一个路径；无需投入地面部队，短期政治风险相对较低。

理论上，持续轰炸是有可能削弱伊军实力，甚至迫使德黑兰让步。然而，战争首月的密集打击已严重扰动全球能源供应，导致美国国内生活费飙涨，美军自身武器储备也在快速消耗。

若战争长期持续，美方的战略收益也将随之递减，甚至导致美军过于疲弱而无法应对它认为包括中国在内的其他全球威胁。

四、宣布胜利后撤军

美方也可在适当时机宣布达成目标，然后撤军。

特朗普近期多次暗示美国已大幅削弱伊朗的导弹与无人机能力，并暗示主要军事目标已大致实现。在这种情况下，美方可能复制去年6月美国以色列联手对伊朗发动短期军事行动的模式，在政治层面宣布胜利，然后撤出战场。

但分析认为，这种“见好就收”的做法或为伊朗恢复导弹与核计划、重建防御体系留下空间。这有可能导致美以数月后必须再次介入以阻止威胁重燃，使地区局势长期不稳定。此外，若容许伊朗政权存续，很可能让伊朗将“顶住外敌打击”转化为内部政治胜利进而巩固政权。

五、与伊朗谈判达成协议

外交谈判始终是一条重要路径，特朗普政府在加强军事部署的同时，仍不断释放谈判信号。

随着战争成本上升，美伊都有着达成协议的现实动机，但双方诉求差距仍巨大。美国要求伊方放弃弹道导弹、停止使用代理人并放弃核武器；伊朗则寻求不再受攻击的承诺、解除经济制裁并主掌霍尔木兹海峡收取通行费。

由于美伊双方都不愿在核心诉求上妥协，谈判料将旷日持久。即使达成协议，伊朗也很可能利用制裁解除后获得的收入，重建原本已被摧毁的敌对能力。

六、全面入侵伊朗

全面入侵伊朗的这个可能性，目前仍然极低。

即使五角大楼再增派1万人，美军在伊朗地面的兵力规模最多也只达约1万7000人，远低于2003年入侵伊拉克时投入的17万员兵力规模。军事专家指出，当前的部署特征指向的是“有限且高强度”的突袭行动，旨在稳定海峡而非大规模常规占领。

由于全面入侵需更大规模、更多种配置的部队，且政治成本与操作难度巨大，目前并非现实政策选项。目前所部署的兵力，更多只作为“潜在威胁”，是外交谈判桌上的重要筹码。

分析：美厌战信号或助伊朗争取更好谈判条件

让特朗普头痛的并非没有选项，而是现有选项几乎都难以让他在短时间内，兑现最初提出的“政权更迭”目标。

杜克大学政治学与公共政策教授费弗（Peter Feaver）说：“我们（美国）在给伊朗造成巨大痛苦的当儿，却其实也在向对方发出信号，暴露我们自己也在经历痛苦，而且我们并不乐于如此。这等于是告诉对方，他们‘只要活下来就是胜利’的策略也许奏效了。如果他们因此而继续撑下去，下周可能会比这一周在谈判上获得更好的协议，这就会让谈判变得更加复杂。”

Shutdown infighting shatters GOP unity in critical stretch for Trump

2026-04-01T08:00:55.267Z / CNN

By Lauren Fox, Sarah Ferris

3 hr ago

PUBLISHED Apr 1, 2026, 4:00 AM ET

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, left, and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson.

AP/Getty Images

What started as a shutdown face-off between Republicans and Democrats has morphed into a full display of disunity between GOP leaders just months ahead of the midterm elections

Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s decision to leave immigration enforcement funding out of a deal with Democrats to reopen the Department of Homeland Security and the House GOP’s revolt over that deal has shattered the fragile party unity that had been crucial to President Donald Trump’s second term.

Now, Republicans are running Washington during the longest-ever shutdown of DHS with no path out, while their unifier, Trump, is consumed by a Middle East war that threatens even more problems for Congress this year.

Thune, knowing he had to contend with Democrats, cut the only deal he believed was possible to end the shutdown. The Senate GOP leader’s allies insist that he didn’t make the decision unilaterally and that his members agreed by virtue of not stopping the measure. They also point out that Republicans can use a party-line maneuver later on to secure the rest of the funding.

Thune and Johnson have spoken several times since Friday, when the Senate plan to end the shutdown was blocked in humiliating fashion by House Republicans, according to two people familiar with the discussions, though both declined to offer specifics about what was discussed or their plans going forward.

But there are still deep divisions between the two GOP leaders and their conferences, with fulsome bipartisan negotiations virtually nonexistent — raising real questions about whether Republicans can end the shutdown.

Now in a two-week recess, the two Republican-led chambers are deadlocked with both hesitant to cut short their time away from Washington without a clear solution that can make it to Trump’s desk. And Republicans are keenly aware that Democrats — whose votes will be needed for the final deal — see no reason to bargain amid the GOP dysfunction.

It also reveals a deepening schism between the two men, who have until this point navigated occasional tactical differences behind the scenes. Now, Johnson — buoyed by Trump — is leading a public campaign to pressure the Senate back to Washington to push a hardline shutdown strategy, while Thune becomes a target of seething conservative backlash.

“We have got a dilemma. … The Senate has to do their job and help us on this heavy lift,” Johnson said Tuesday on Fox News, in a rare missive directed at his fellow Republicans across the Capitol. “We have to get the government funded, and they are playing games with real people’s lives.”

Johnson, a devout Southern Baptist who mostly avoids disparaging fellow Republicans, has been careful not to criticize Thune directly in public. But privately, he and his fellow House GOP leaders believe Thune botched the negotiations and triggered an intraparty clash that could last through the midterms.

Asked about Thune’s leadership, Rep. Lisa McClain, a member of House leadership, told CNN: “I’d rather not comment on that, but I would suggest the Senate does come back and at least take a vote. That is what they were elected to do.”

Rep. Mike Simpson, a mild-mannered Mormon and 27-year veteran of the House, added to CNN: “I don’t have principled words I can say about it.”

But when pressed about Thune’s push ahead on shutdown talks without consent from House GOP leaders, he added: “It’s never a good idea. I keep telling myself, well, that’s the Senate. I try not to interfere with their business. But it’s questionable, let’s put it that way.”

It’s not just House Republicans who have at times broken with Thune amid the shutdown: Even centrist Sen. Susan Collins declined to put her name on the amendment that Thune introduced last week to eliminate the contentious immigration funding, according to one person familiar with those internal discussions. One of Thune’s most hardline members, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, has been calling for the Senate to come back into session for days.

Some of Thune’s fellow Senate Republicans, however, have previously acknowledged their leader has been dealing with difficult decisions for months.

“He’s doing good considering the team he’s got,” Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville said of Thune before the Senate passed the bipartisan DHS deal. “We’re so divided on how to handle certain things and he just got dealt a hand that is very, very tough to control.”

“The thing I would say about John Thune is he’s an honest man, he’s an honest broker and I think that really counts for a lot,” Sen. Josh Hawley said in a recent interview before Thune put the DHS spending bill on the floor. “That is a quality in short supply in this town. I have never had John Thune tell me something that wasn’t true and I never had him make a promise he didn’t keep.”

It’s not just the shutdown. Thune and Johnson — as well as much of the GOP — are on different planets when it comes to what else Congress should tackle in 2026. Johnson has been adamant that Congress should pursue another massive partisan policy bill that could involve major Trump priorities such as a voter ID law before the midterms using a procedure known as reconciliation.

For Johnson, satisfying his right flank is essential for his own survival in leadership. (And he has a lot more GOP hardliners on his side of the Capitol than Thune does.)

But some Senate Republicans have been frustrated that Johnson and hardline conservatives are pushing a sweeping reconciliation plan when the lower chamber barely has a functioning majority. They believe it sets up failure and will only alienate the Trump base come November.

Some Trump officials are aware that jamming another major party-line bill through Congress could end in failure, especially with only months left until the midterms and no clear consensus on what should go into the legislation.

But many around Trump believe they need to give it a shot, eager to show the MAGA base that they’re still fighting for key priorities — and of the belief that Trump’s outsize influence could still be enough to convince lawmakers to line up behind another big bill.

“I was told we couldn’t do the ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ from some really smart inside baseball Hill people,” said one Trump adviser. “And they obviously did it.”

Senior Republican lawmakers and aides acknowledge that much of the fury at Thune comes from an insatiable push from conservatives to nuke the Senate’s filibuster and allow the chamber to pass anything they please without Democratic votes. Thune — while far from the only GOP senator who wants to preserve the filibuster — has become the public face of the battle.

Online, Thune has become the latest target for MAGA influencers already upset with him over his refusal to kill the Senate’s filibuster (which he has said repeatedly he doesn’t have the votes to do) to pass the president’s “SAVE America Act” voter ID bill. Some House conservatives have even called on Thune to be replaced, which has virtually no chance of happening given support for the South Dakota lawmaker within his ranks. Senate GOP sources, including conservatives, told CNN that is highly unlikely in the coming months.

Still, Thune is hammered every time he has to negotiate with Democratic colleagues, who are crucial to the 60-vote threshold to end debate and move to a final vote on legislation.

The latest tension between the two GOP leaders indicates trouble ahead as the party stares down a tumultuous few months in which they still have to pass a clean reauthorization of the intelligence community’s spy powers, find a way out of the shutdown, and face pressure to pass another party-line policy bill that will once again force both GOP leaders to operate with almost no defections.

Then there’s a potentially massive funding request from the Pentagon that has already revealed deep divisions among Republicans — and even a rare split with Trump.

While the recent disagreement over funding has been on full display, the president himself has been careful not to target Thune directly.

“I understand John Thune and I understand Mike Johnson,” Trump said Friday. “They want to be sure that people aren’t coming into our country like they have for the last four years. I don’t want to say they’ve ruined it. They made my job a lot harder and now we have it good.”

People inside the White House also still view Thune as a straight shooter and key ally of the president in the Senate, adept at navigating sometimes-conflicting viewpoints even within his own conference.

“It’s hard being the leader because you’ve got to deal with a lot of people and they all have their own egos and they all have their own constituencies,” the Trump adviser said. “No matter what happens, Mike Johnson will still be speaker and even John Thune will probably still leader. Maybe not, but who knows.”

CNN’s Adam Cancryn contributed to this report.

Trump says U.S. strongly considering NATO exit, Telegraph newspaper says

April 1, 2026 9:13 AM UTC / Reuters

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U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order on mail ballots, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., March 31, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci Purchase Licensing Rights

LONDON, April 1 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said he was ​strongly considering pulling the United ‌States out of NATO after allies failed to back U.S. ​military action against Iran, ​according to an interview with Britain’s ⁠Daily Telegraph.

Trump described the ​alliance as a “paper tiger” and ​said removing the United States from the defence pact was now “beyond reconsideration,” ​the newspaper reported. He ​said he had long held doubts ‌about ⁠NATO’s credibility.

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“Oh yes, I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration,” Trump told the newspaper when asked ​about whether ​he ⁠would reconsider U.S. membership of the alliance after ​the conflict.

“I was never ​swayed ⁠by NATO. I always knew they were a paper ⁠tiger, ​and Putin knows ​that too, by the way.”

Reporting by Sam ​Tabahriti; editing by Michael Holden

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.