2026年2月12日 美国东部时间下午4:16 / 路透社
作者:迈克尔·S·德比
The container ship Talos passes under the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge to arrive in New York Harbor in New York City, U.S., January 16, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- 摘要
- 纽约联储报告发现美国人几乎承担了特朗普关税的全部成本
- 美联储官员将关税与通胀超调联系起来
- 法院和立法行动下关税前景不明
2月12日(路透社)- 纽约联邦储备银行周四发布的一份报告显示,美国人正在承担几乎所有总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)征收的进口税激增的成本。
该银行表示,总统对进口商品征收的关税中,90%由美国消费者和企业承担。这份报告反驳了特朗普政府的观点,即这些税款由外国人支付。
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报告评估了去年关税如何影响经济,当时平均税率从2.6%升至13%。报告指出,平均税率在全年有所波动,4月和5月达到最高,当时特朗普将对中国商品的关税提高到125%,随后又降至仍高达113%的水平。
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作者们基于特朗普第一个任期内关税的运作方式进行分析。当面临这类税收时,“我们过去的研究发现,外国出口商根本没有降低价格,因此关税的全部负担由美国承担。也就是说,关税100%转嫁到了进口价格上。”
该论文称,去年1月至8月期间,美国人承担了特朗普关税影响的94%。9月和10月这一比例降至92%,11月进一步降至86%。
纽约联储的研究结果与国会预算办公室(CBO)周三发布的一份报告一致。
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国会预算办公室表示:“更高的关税直接增加了进口商品的成本,提高了美国消费者和企业的价格。”至于谁将支付关税,国会预算办公室称外国出口商将承担5%的成本,短期内“美国企业将通过降低利润率来承担30%的进口价格上涨;剩余的70%将通过提高价格转嫁给消费者。”
关税困境
对进口商品征收重税是特朗普政府政策体系的基石。这些关税被用来为政府筹集收入,作为惩罚总统认为利用美国的其他国家的工具,以及作为重振国内产业的机制。
关税的实施极不稳定,通常是大幅提高后又撤退和延迟,导致金融市场出现大幅波动,并给整体经济带来不确定性。
美联储官员认为,今年通胀目标(2%)的大部分超调都与贸易关税有关,这使得他们在去年降息75个基点(主要是为了支持就业市场)后,降低利率的能力变得复杂。
周五,政府将发布1月份消费者价格状况的最新报告。经济学家预计,这一备受关注的指标的同比整体读数将略有放缓。
美联储官员预计,随着今年推进,关税的影响将减弱,可能仅代表价格水平的一次性上涨。这可能为进一步降息打开大门,尽管这也意味着关税可能会导致美国人面临的生活成本总体上升。
话虽如此,至少有一位美联储官员对关税的影响持较为温和的看法。周一,美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)表示,关税对经济的影响“相当有限”,数据并不支持美国企业实际上将更高成本直接转嫁给美国民众的说法。米兰曾是总统的顶级经济顾问。
周三,众议院投票决定终止特朗普对加拿大的紧急关税,这对特朗普政府的部分关税权力构成了潜在重大挫折。最高法院也将在某个时候就特朗普许多关税的合法性做出裁决。
报道:迈克尔·S·德比;编辑:安德里亚·里奇
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NY Fed report says Americans pay for almost all of Trump’s tariffs
February 12, 2026 4:16 PM UTC / Reuters
By Michael S. Derby
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The container ship Talos passes under the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge to arrive in New York Harbor in New York City, U.S., January 16, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- NY Fed report finds Americans pay almost all of Trump’s tariffs
- Fed officials tie tariffs to inflation overshoot
- Tariff outlook uncertain amid court, legislative action
Feb 12 (Reuters) – Americans are shouldering almost all of President Donald Trump’s import tax surge, a report, opens new tab from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday.
The bank said 90% of the tariffs imposed by the president on imported goods are borne by American consumers and companies. The report pushes back against the Trump administration’s argument that the levies are paid by foreigners.
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The report evaluated how tariffs impacted the economy last year, when the average of the taxes went from 2.6% to 13%. The report noted that the average level shifted over the course of the year and was at its highest in April and May, when Trump pumped up tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% before lowering them back to a still heady 113%.
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The authors based their analysis on how tariffs worked in the first Trump term. When faced with these types of taxes, “our past work found that foreign exporters did not lower their prices at all, so the full incidence of the tariffs was borne by the U.S. That is, there was 100% pass-through from tariffs into import prices.”
The paper said that between January and August of last year Americans took 94% of the hit from Trump’s tariffs. During September and October, that ebbed to 92%, settling to 86% in November.
The New York Fed findings jibe with a report, opens new tab put out by the Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday.
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It said “higher tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, raising prices for U.S. consumers and businesses.” When it comes to who will pay the tariffs, the CBO said foreign exporters will absorb 5% of the cost, and in the near term, “U.S. businesses will absorb 30% of the import price increases by reducing their profit margins; the remaining 70% will be passed through to consumers by raising prices.”
TAX TROUBLE
The imposition of the large taxes on imported goods is a cornerstone of the Trump administration’s policy regime. They are being used to raise revenue for the government, and as a tool to punish other nations the president believes are taking advantage of the U.S., and as a mechanism to re-shore industry.
The imposition of the tariffs has been highly erratic, with the routine imposition of large increases followed by retreats and delays, generating periods of large volatility in financial markets and creating uncertainty in the broader economy.
Federal Reserve officials believe that much of the overshoot of their 2% inflation target this year is related to trade tariffs, and that has complicated their ability to cut interest rates after 75 basis points worth of easing last year, which was done in large part to support the job market.
On Friday, the government will release its latest report on the state of consumer prices in January. Economists expect to see a slight moderation in the year-over-year headline reading for the closely watched gauge.
Fed officials expect tariff impacts to wane as the year moves forward and to likely represent a one-time increase in the price level. That could open the door to more rate cuts, although it also means that the tariffs are likely to lead to an overall increase in the cost of living faced by Americans.
That said, at least one Fed official sees a more benign situation with the tariffs. Speaking on Monday, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, formerly a top economic advisor to the president, argued tariff impacts on the economy have been “quite muted” and the data doesn’t support the idea American businesses are in fact passing on their higher costs directly to those in the U.S.
The Trump administration faced a potential major setback in some of its tariff powers on Wednesday, when the House of Representatives voted to end his emergency tariffs on Canada. The Supreme Court is also set to rule at some point on the legality of many of Trump’s tariffs.
Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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