2026-04-06 10:03:58 UTC / 路透社
作者：戴维·乌德-纽尼奥
2026年4月6日 美国东部时间上午10:03 更新于55分钟前
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2022年11月8日，美国佛罗里达州迈阿密，选民在投票中心投票后佩戴“我已投票”贴纸。路透社/马可·贝洛 购买授权，将在新标签页打开
- 内容摘要
- 民主党寻求在迈阿密-戴德县重拾拉美裔支持
- 拉美裔选民对特朗普部分政策的不满加剧
- 共和党内部人士称南佛罗里达的拉美裔支持并未下滑
迈阿密，4月6日（路透社）——过去十年共和党在南佛罗里达的地区性成功的基石，即其在古巴裔和委内瑞拉裔选民中长期稳固的支持，在2026年中期选举前正显现出动摇迹象。
据约50名商界领袖、两党政客及接受路透社采访的选民透露，经济疲软、生活成本高企，以及唐纳德·特朗普总统的强硬移民政策，都削弱了共和党对众多拉美裔选民的吸引力，为民主党在这个共和党最可靠的票仓之一创造了潜在机会。
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2026年中期选举可能会显现出共和党在南佛罗里达拉美裔选民群体中的支持率正在下滑——这一群体的右倾倾向帮助共和党在2024年总统选举中三十多年来首次拿下迈阿密-戴德县。民主党选民和党内内部人士表示，如果民主党能够成功在拉美裔群体中建立联盟——这不一定意味着能在11月翻转众议院席位——这一趋势将持续下去，并在2026年之后带来长期回报。
“我认为民主党有绝佳的机会取得进展，”80岁的玛尔塔·阿诺德说道。她在1959年1月1日菲德尔·卡斯特尔掌权当晚随家人逃离古巴革命，并以独立选民身份在2024年投票给了前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯。
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近期的几场选举结果让民主党备受鼓舞：3月，艾米丽·格雷戈里为民主党拿下了佛罗里达州议会的一个选区，该区域包括特朗普的海湖庄园宅邸，而特朗普在2024年曾以11个百分点的优势赢得该选区。去年12月，民主党候选人艾琳·希金斯在迈阿密市长选举中以19个百分点的优势击败了特朗普支持的候选人埃米利奥·冈萨雷斯。
尽管早期迹象显示民主党前景乐观，但据接受采访的十余名共和党选民、党内内部人士和迈阿密当地领袖透露，民主党仍需克服重重困难，才能说服立场坚定、心存疑虑的共和党支持者改变投票意向。
“现在胜算五五开，”胡安“老爹”·卡尔多纳说道，他是迈阿密小哈瓦那中心的卡莱奥乔街的D’Asis瓜亚贝拉衬衫店的经营者。这位波多黎各裔人士已经在这家售卖传统拉美男装衬衫的别致却充满活力的店铺外与游客互动、打趣了二十多年。
竞选季仍处于早期阶段，但参选的民主党人已经通过市政厅会议、挨家挨户拉票和集会活动加大了对选民的游说力度。佛罗里达州民主党全国委员会成员米莉·埃雷拉表示，佛罗里达初选将于8月18日举行，但与此同时，民主党全国委员会主席肯·马丁已经为投票动员和选民登记活动投入了资源。
移民与驱逐政策上的“错误”
阿诺德表示，特朗普政府的强硬移民执法政策可能是拖累共和党的最大因素，因为据皮尤研究中心的数据，该地区居住着超过25万委内瑞拉人和120万古巴人，几乎人人都认识被“强行拆散”离开社区的亲友。
据监测美国移民执法情况的无党派人权倡导组织“人权第一”近期的一份报告显示，2025年，特朗普政府通过遣返航班将至少1379名古巴人从美国遣返回古巴，并通过陆地边境将至少3753名古巴人遣返至墨西哥。
“这是一个非常严重的错误，”美国众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔说道，她的选区涵盖迈阿密-戴德县的大部分区域。
她表示，如果共和党不“调整路线”，其以当前方式抓捕无证移民的做法可能会让共和党在中期选举中失利，而共和党领袖也已经承认了这一点。
佛罗里达国际大学政治学副教授达里奥·莫雷诺表示，这甚至可能让萨拉扎尔失去议员席位。他说，在该地区所有国会选区的选举中，萨拉扎尔可能是“最脆弱的”一位。
萨拉扎尔在2020年击败民主党众议员唐娜·沙拉拉赢得佛罗里达州第27国会选区席位，而沙拉拉在两年前长期担任共和党议员的伊莱亚娜·罗斯-莱赫蒂宁退休后赢得了该席位。2024年，萨拉扎尔以约20个百分点的优势击败对手成功连任。
萨拉扎尔正依托其牵头提出的《尊严法案》展开竞选，这是一项全面的移民改革法案，已获得近40名两党共同提案国的支持，旨在为其连任扫清道路。
但据格林伯格特拉维格律师事务所移民与合规业务部的分析，该法案面临政治阻力，通过之路崎岖不平。
全国共和党方面表示，他们并不担心南佛罗里达的局势。“共和党通过聚焦佛罗里达工薪家庭最关心的议题：降低生活成本、安全社区、优质学校和边境安全，已经赢得并将继续赢得拉美裔选民的支持，”美国全国共和党国会委员会发言人克里斯蒂安·马丁在给路透社的一份声明中说道。
尽管如此，在近年来最窄的国会多数席位格局下，少数几个竞争激烈的选区可能会决定华盛顿的控制权归属。
特朗普在国内外的影响
许多古巴裔选民仍对特朗普保持忠诚，特朗普加大了对古巴共产党政府的施压，并公开谈论政权更迭。78岁的路易斯·梅迪纳是迈阿密小哈瓦那历史悠久的多米诺公园俱乐部成员，他表示自己将永远支持特朗普。
梅迪纳26年前移居美国，不久后加入美国国籍。他三次投票都支持特朗普。当他讲话时，周围十几张桌子上的多米诺骨牌不断碰撞倒下，许多玩家纷纷转头点头表示赞同。
特朗普在委内瑞拉的行动也让许多流亡者感到振奋。当尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统于1月被美军抓获时，全球各地的委内瑞拉侨民欢呼雀跃、载歌载舞，希望威权统治随着马杜罗一同入狱。
但当特朗普公开表示他对委内瑞拉的兴趣并非政权更迭，而是该国丰富的石油资源时，像古斯塔沃·格罗斯曼这样的委内瑞拉裔美国人开始心生疑虑。格罗斯曼曾是HBO高管，长期居住在迈阿密。
对曾在过去两次选举中投票支持特朗普的格罗斯曼来说，马杜罗被抓获曾让他松了一口气，以为政治变革即将到来。但随着马杜罗政府其他成员仍在掌权，这种希望已经破灭，他表示，自己期待的“全面”变革尚未实现。
对许多人来说，特朗普的国内政策更为重要。皮尤研究中心11月的一项调查显示，在特朗普第二个任期的第一年，超过三分之二的拉美裔人士表示他们的处境较去年恶化，约80%的人表示特朗普的政策对拉美裔的伤害大于帮助。
56岁的曼努埃尔·卡兰克是居住在南佛罗里达的委内瑞拉裔美国人，他将特朗普的移民镇压政策视为一种道德失败，尤其是在明尼阿波利斯两名美国公民死于移民执法人员之手的事件后。“我认为共和党会在中期选举中失利，”卡兰克说道，他是全球金融服务公司StoneX负责国际植物油市场的副总裁。
玛尔塔·阿里亚斯在她的移民律师事务所每周都会听到古巴裔家庭重复同样的话：“我从没想过这种事会发生在我身上”，他们大多是指家人被移民当局拘留并驱逐。
阿里亚斯是迈阿密的Arias Villa Law PLLC小型律所的合伙人，去年是她从事移民法律工作近30年来最繁忙的一年。
阿里亚斯表示，寻求帮助帮助被美国移民海关执法局拘留的家人的古巴裔美国人总是对她说同一句话：“我为自己的投票感到后悔。”
戴维·乌德-纽尼奥报道；凯特·斯塔福德和克劳迪娅·帕森斯编辑
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Democrats see a chance to win back Latino voters in southern Florida
2026-04-06 10:03:58 UTC / Reuters
By David Hood-Nuño
April 6, 2026 10:03 AM UTC Updated 55 mins ago
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A man wears an “I voted” sticker after casting his vote at a polling centre during the 2022 U.S. midterm election in Miami, Florida, U.S., November 8, 2022. REUTERS/Marco Bello Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Democrats seek to regain Latino support in Miami-Dade
- Latino voters’ dissatisfaction with some Trump policies grows
- GOP insiders say Latino support in South Florida isn’t slipping
MIAMI, April 6 (Reuters) – Republicans’ longstanding support among voters of Cuban and Venezuelan descent in South Florida, a cornerstone of the party’s regional success over the past decade, is showing signs of strain ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
A sluggish economy and high living costs, as well as President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration agenda, complicate the party’s appeal to many Latino voters, creating a potential opening for Democrats in one of the GOP’s most reliable strongholds, according to about 50 business leaders, politicians of both parties and voters who spoke to Reuters.
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The 2026 midterm could show Republican support is flagging among South Florida’s Latino electorate, whose rightward shift helped the party sweep Miami‑Dade County in the 2024 presidential election for the first time in more than three decades. And if Democrats are successful in building coalitions among Latinos — which doesn’t necessarily mean flipping House seats in November — it could last and pay off well beyond 2026, Democratic voters and party insiders say.
“I think there is a tremendous opportunity for the Democratic Party to make inroads,” said Marta Arnold, 80, who fled the Cuban Revolution with her family the night Fidel Castro took power on January 1, 1959, and who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 as an independent.
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Democrats have been encouraged by a few recent votes: Emily Gregory flipped a Florida House district for them in March in an area that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, a district he won by 11 points in 2024. And in December, Democrat Eileen Higgins defeated Trump-backed candidate Emilio Gonzalez by 19 points for the Miami mayoral race.
Though early signs point to positive prospects for Democrats, they still have a hill to climb to convince staunch, skeptical Republican supporters to change their votes, according to more than a dozen interviews with Republican voters, party insiders and leaders in Miami.
“There’s a 50-50 chance now,” said Juan “Big Papa” Cardona, operator of D’Asis Guayaberas, on Calle Ocho in the heart of Little Havana in Miami. Cardona, who’s Puerto Rican, has heckled and joked with tourists outside the quaint but vibrant store selling traditional Latin American men’s shirts for more than 20 years.
It’s still early in the campaign season, but Democrats in the race have ramped up outreach to voters through town halls, door-knocking and rally events. The Florida primary is August 18, but in the meantime, Democratic National Committee chairman Ken Martin has committed resources for get-out-the-vote campaigns and voter registration events, according to Millie Herrera, a Florida DNC member.
A ‘MISTAKE’ ON IMMIGRATION AND DEPORTATIONS
The administration’s hardline immigration enforcement policy may be the greatest factor weighing on Republicans, Arnold said, because in an area where more than 250,000 Venezuelans and 1.2 million Cubans live, according to the Pew Research Center, everyone knows someone who has been “torn away” from the community.
In 2025, the Trump administration removed at least 1,379 Cubans from the U.S. to Cuba via deportation flights and at least 3,753 Cubans to Mexico across the land border, according to a recent report by Human Rights First, a nonpartisan human rights advocacy group that monitors U.S. immigration enforcement.
“That’s a very big mistake,” said U.S. Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican whose district includes most of Miami-Dade County.
Rounding up undocumented immigrants the way the administration has done could cost Republicans the midterm elections if it doesn’t “course correct,” she said, which party leaders have acknowledged.
It could cost Salazar her seat, too, according to Dario Moreno, an associate professor of politics at Florida International University. Of all the congressional races in the area, Salazar could be the “most vulnerable,” he said.
Salazar took Florida’s 27th Congressional District seat in 2020 by defeating Democratic Representative Donna Shalala, who had won it two years earlier when longtime Republican incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen retired. In 2024, Salazar won by about 20 percentage points over her opponent.
Salazar is leaning on her signature legislation, the DIGNIDAD Act, a comprehensive immigration-reform bill that has amassed nearly 40 bipartisan co-sponsors, to clear the path to her reelection.
But the bill faces political headwinds and a rocky path to passage, according to an analysis by Greenberg Traurig’s Immigration and Compliance Practice.
National Republicans say they aren’t worried about South Florida. “Republicans have earned and will continue to earn Latino voters’ support by focusing on what matters most to working families in Florida: lowering the cost of living, safe neighborhoods, good schools, and a secure border,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Christian Martinez said in a statement to Reuters.
Still, with one of the narrowest congressional majorities in recent history, a handful of competitive races could determine control of Washington.
TRUMP IMPACT AT HOME AND ABROAD
Many Cuban American voters remain loyal to Trump, who has stepped up pressure on the island’s communist government and talked openly about regime change. Luis Medina, 78, a member of the historic Domino Park club in the Little Havana neighborhood of Miami, said he will always support Trump.
Medina moved to the United States 26 years ago and became a citizen shortly after. He voted for Trump all three times. While dominoes clacked and fell on the dozen or so tables around him, many players looked over and nodded in approval as he spoke.
Trump’s actions in Venezuela have also cheered many exiles. When President Nicolas Maduro was captured by U.S. forces in January, the Venezuelan diaspora all over the world cheered, danced and partied, hopeful that authoritarianism went with Maduro to jail.
But when Trump said publicly that his interest in the country wasn’t regime change, but the country’s vast oil supply, some doubts crept in for Venezuelan Americans like Gustavo Grossmann, a former HBO executive and longtime Miami resident.
For Grossmann, who voted for Trump in the last two elections, Maduro’s capture felt like a relief, that political change was on the horizon. But with the rest of Maduro’s government still in place, that hope has been dashed, as the “comprehensive” changes he was expecting have yet to materialize, he said.
For many, Trump’s policies at home are more important. In the first year of Trump’s second term, more than two in three Latinos said their situation had worsened in the past year and about 80% said Trump’s policies did more harm to Latinos than helped them, according to a November Pew Research Center survey.
Manuel Carranque, 56, a Venezuelan American living in South Florida, views Trump’s immigration crackdown as a moral failure, especially with the deaths of two American citizens at the hands of immigration enforcement officers in Minneapolis. “I think Republicans are going to lose the midterms,” said Carranque, vice president of international markets for vegetable oils for StoneX, a global financial services company.
Martha Arias hears the same refrain every week from Cuban American families at her immigration law office: “I never thought this would happen to me,” most of them tell her, referring to a family member detained and deported by immigration authorities.
Last year was the busiest year for Arias, a partner at her small firm, Arias Villa Law PLLC, in the nearly 30 years she’s practiced immigration law in Miami.
Arias said Cuban Americans seeking her help for a family member in Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention keep telling her the same thing: “I regret my vote.”
Reporting by David Hood-Nuño; Editing by Kat Stafford and Claudia Parsons
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