2026-02-21T06:00:34.331Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/21/politics/china-nuclear-arsenal-new-technology
多个熟悉美国情报评估的消息人士透露，美国情报机构认为，中国正在研发新一代核武器，并在近年来进行了至少一次秘密爆炸试验，以推动将其核武库彻底改造成世界上技术最先进的核力量。
消息人士称，美国对中国意图大幅推进核武器发展的评估，正在情报界及其他领域引发关于北京在核战略思维上是否发生转变的争论。对核武库的投资正使中国更接近与俄罗斯和美国同等的核地位，并可能产生俄罗斯和美国这两个主要核大国目前都不具备的技术能力。
消息人士和美国官员近期声明显示，尽管自1996年以来中国一直自行实施核试验禁令，但2020年6月，中国在西北部罗布泊设施秘密进行了一次核爆炸试验，并且正计划在未来进行更多此类试验。虽然2020年的核试验本月已由美国国务院官员公开披露，但该试验的目的此前从未公开。
后续对2020年6月事件的调查收集到的证据，使美国官员得出结论：此次试验是中国追求下一代核武器的动机。这包括努力开发能够从单一导弹发射多枚小型化核弹头的额外武器系统。
消息人士补充称，中国似乎还在开发低当量战术核武器——这是中国此前从未生产过的——这些武器可能部署在更接近本土的目标上，包括北京在可能对台湾进行防御时的应对场景。
美国情报官员此前曾公开报告称，中国正在积极扩建核设施，分析师怀疑中国可能在寻求新技术。现在美国官员认为有强有力的证据支持这一理论——部分原因是他们从2020年的试验中获得了新认识。
中国自1964年就拥有核武库，其核弹头生产速度超过世界上任何国家，尽管其核武库规模远远落后于继续占据世界核武器最大份额的俄罗斯和美国。
针对美国情报机构对中国核计划的评估，中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇告诉CNN：“美国歪曲和抹黑中国的核政策。”
“这是为追求核霸权、逃避自身核裁军责任而进行的政治操纵，”刘鹏宇称，“中国坚决反对这种说法。美国关于中国进行核试验的指控完全没有根据。中国反对美国试图为恢复自身核试验制造借口。”
一名国防官员表示，五角大楼“不对与特定所谓核试验事件相关的情报评估发表评论”。
五角大楼此前曾暗示，中国扩大和改进核武库的努力可能“为中国在危机或冲突期间提供新的选择，利用核武器进行胁迫，包括对美国盟友和地区伙伴进行军事挑衅”。
2024年美国国防情报局的一份报告也指出，中国正以美国为目标寻求改造其核武库。
报告称：“中国正在经历历史上最快速的核力量扩张和最雄心勃勃的现代化——几乎可以肯定是为了与美国进行持久的战略竞争，并实现数十年存在但现在才得以实现的强化战略概念。”
从历史上看，中国将其核能力视为自卫手段，并威慑其他国家对其使用或威胁使用核武器。中国数十年来一直奉行“不首先使用”政策，但2023年提出的全球治理提案中未提及这一承诺，引发了关于中国核政策立场可能发生变化的猜测。
直到最近，中国的核能力仍被认为远不如其核对手。它进行的核试验次数要少得多，而这些试验是设计现代化武器所需数据的关键来源。
美中布里奇研究所军备控制专家杰弗里·刘易斯表示：“中国的核工程师可能对仅45次核试验收集到的有限核武器数据缺乏信心，其中大部分是在大气层中进行的，且仪器设备简陋。”
美国官员认为，这是中国可能恢复爆炸试验的主要原因之一。
一位熟悉此事的消息人士称：“他们拥有全新一代的武器，但缺乏相关数据库。”
多位消息人士告诉CNN，在此次现代化推进过程中，中国正大力投资于机动性和生存能力，北京长期以来一直担心美国可能在其反击前就消灭其全部核力量——或者至少造成足够的破坏使其失去有效作用。
美国官员还认为，中国对自身系统可靠性的担忧，加剧了其现代化努力的紧迫性，并推动了确保核弹头能命中目标的技术投资。
两名消息人士指出，在2020年6月核试验期间，中国似乎对潜在的美国攻击越来越焦虑。同年11月美国大选前夕，中国官员甚至联系了当时的参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利，因为他们担心发生“十月惊奇”（指大选前突然发生的政治事件）。
尽管这些紧张局势最终有所缓和，但此后几年中国采取的措施不仅更新了核力量，还寻求整个军队的现代化。
国务院官员披露了所谓2020年6月在罗布泊设施进行爆炸试验的新细节，引发人们对中国核野心的关注。他们披露了事件的确切日期、地点和相关地震数据，以支持其结论。一位前高级官员告诉CNN，后续对试验的研究表明，中国利用此次试验推进核武库现代化，特别是考虑到地震活动的震级。
助理国务卿克里斯托弗·叶（Christopher Yeaw） 在本周华盛顿哈德逊研究所的活动中表示，2020年6月的事件测量到“2.75级爆炸”。
“我此后查看了更多数据。我认为除了爆炸之外几乎没有其他可能性，这是一次单一的爆炸，”叶补充道，称数据与采矿爆炸不一致。
“这也完全不符合地震特征，”叶说，他曾是情报分析师和国防官员，拥有核工程博士学位，“这……正是你期望的核爆炸试验结果。”
本月早些时候，负责军控事务的副国务卿托马斯·迪南诺也公开指控中国在2020年秘密进行了核爆炸试验，并暗示美国情报显示北京计划进行更多试验。
迪南诺在2月6日的演讲中表示：“我可以透露，美国政府知道中国进行了核爆炸试验，包括准备进行数百吨当量的试验。中国人民解放军试图通过混淆核爆炸来隐瞒试验，因为它认识到这些试验违反了禁试承诺。”
CNN随后了解到，美国在2020年6月事件后收集的更多情报，成为专家争论的关键一环，因为有专家认为仅靠地震数据不足以最终确定这是一次核试验，也无法理解为何要进行试验。
当被问及本月早些时候所谓秘密核试验的指控时，中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇表示，中国“奉行‘不首先使用’核武器政策和以自卫为重点的核战略，并坚持核试验禁令。”
“我们随时准备与各方合作，共同维护《全面禁止核试验条约》的权威，维护国际核裁军与不扩散制度，”他告诉CNN。
“希望美国认真遵守其在条约下的义务和暂停核试验的承诺，采取具体行动维护国际核裁军与不扩散制度以及全球战略平衡与稳定。”
值得注意的是，特朗普政府在此时披露2020年6月的所谓核试验细节——这是美国要求中国加入任何新的核军控协议的关键时刻，而中国国家主席习近平迄今一直抵制这些要求。消息人士称，特朗普曾暗示美国可能恢复自身的核试验。
多位消息人士表示，最终中国从进行爆炸试验中获得的收益超过美国，这就引发了疑问：为何国务院在此时披露2020年6月事件的具体信息。
这一行动表明，特朗普政府担心与北京的公共外交——特别是在总统4月即将访华之前——一位熟悉两国讨论的消息人士指出。
但现任美国官员也指出，特朗普政府决心将中国纳入核军控谈判，这表明披露美国对中国当前核努力的部分了解，可能会迫使中国进行谈判。
前国家安全委员会幕僚长、现任大西洋理事会高级研究员亚历克斯·格雷表示：“旧的军控范式正在瓦解，因为中国正在加速其核武库扩张。美国政府不仅要应对俄罗斯的战略武器，更要关注中国令人担忧的核扩张。除非我们能制定一个包含北京的军控框架，否则美国不需要盲目遵守过时的军控教条，因为这些教条无法应对当前和未来的威胁。”
中国人民解放军的快速发展和现代化，也实现了习近平十多年前承诺的将世界上最大规模武装部队转变为世界级军队的目标。
“这反映了中国广泛的全球野心……这几乎是中国正在做的所有事情中最明确的信号之一，”一位消息人士补充道，指出北京的行动必须影响美国如何为未来冲突做准备。
Exclusive: US intelligence agencies tie Chinese explosive test to push for a completely new nuclear arsenal
2026-02-21T06:00:34.331Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/21/politics/china-nuclear-arsenal-new-technology
US intelligence agencies believe that China is developing a new generation of nuclear weapons and has conducted at least one covert explosive test in recent years as part of a broader push to completely transform its nuclear arsenal into the world’s most technologically advanced, according to multiple sources familiar with the US intelligence assessments.
The US assessment of China’s intention to radically advance its nuclear weapons is fueling debate inside the intelligence community and beyond over whether there has been a shift in Beijing’s thinking on nuclear strategy, the sources said. The investment in its nuclear arsenal is pushing China closer to peer status with Russia and the US and could yield technical capabilities neither of the two dominant nuclear powers currently possess.
China secretly conducted an explosive nuclear test in June 2020 at the Lop Nur facility, in the country’s northwest – despite a self-imposed moratorium on such activity that has been in place since 1996 – and was planning to do more in the future, according to the sources and recent statements from US officials. While the 2020 test was disclosed publicly by US State Department officials this month, the purpose of the test has not been previously revealed.
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Evidence collected as part of a subsequent review of the June 2020 event, has led US officials to conclude the test was motivated by China’s pursuit of next-generation nuclear weapons, the sources familiar said. That includes efforts to develop additional weapons systems capable of delivering multiple, miniaturized nuclear warheads from a single missile.
China also appears to be developing low-yield, tactical nuclear weapons – something the country has never previously produced – that could be deployed against targets closer to home, including in scenarios where Beijing responds to a potential US defense of Taiwan, the sources added.
China has been aggressively expanding its nuclear sites, US intelligence officials have previously reported publicly, with analysts suspecting that China might be pursuing new technologies. Now US officials believe there is strong evidence to support that theory – in part – because of what it has learned about the 2020 test.
China has had a nuclear arsenal since 1964. It has produced warheads faster than any country in the world, although the size of its arsenal trails far behind Russia and the US, which continue to own the lion’s share of the world’s nuclear weapons.
Asked about the US intelligence assessments of its nuclear program, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington told CNN that “the United States has distorted and smeared China’s nuclear policy.”
“This is political manipulation aimed at pursuing nuclear hegemony and evading its own nuclear disarmament responsibilities,” Liu Pengyu said. “China firmly opposes such narratives. US allegation about China conducting a nuclear test are entirely unfounded. China opposes any attempt by the United States to fabricate excuses for resuming its own nuclear testing.”
A defense official said that the Pentagon “does not comment on intelligence assessments tied to specific alleged nuclear test events.”
The Pentagon has previously suggested that China’s efforts to expand and improve its nuclear arsenal could “provide [China] with new options before and during a crisis or conflict to leverage nuclear weapons for coercive purposes, including military provocations against US Allies and partners in the region.”
A 2024 report from the Defense Intelligence Agency also noted that China is seeking to revamp its nuclear arsenal with the US in mind.
“China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history—almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S. and a goal to actualize intensified strategic concepts that have existed for decades but are now being realized,” it states.
Historically, China has viewed its nuclear capabilities as a means of self-defense and deterring other countries from using or threatening to use their own nuclear weapons against it. China has had a no-first-use policy in place for decades, but the country’s 2023 proposal on global governance does not reference that commitment which has invited speculation that China’s posture could be changing.
And until recently, China’s nuclear capability was considered far less advanced than its nuclear rivals. It has conducted far fewer tests from which it could collect data needed to design modernized weapons.
“China’s nuclear weaponeers may lack confidence in the limited nuclear weapons data they collected during only 45 tests, most of which were conducted in the atmosphere and poorly instrumented,” according to Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
That, US officials believe, is one of the primary reasons why China would resume explosive testing.
“They have a brand new generation of weapons for which they have no database,” said one of the sources familiar with the matter.
As part of that modernization push, China has been investing heavily in maneuverability and survivability, multiple sources told CNN, noting Beijing has long feared the US could potentially wipe out its entire force before it can shoot back – or at least inflict enough damage to effectively neuter it.
US officials also believe China has had concerns over the reliability of its own systems, which contributes to the urgency surrounding its modernization efforts and fueled investment in technologies to ensure its nuclear warheads can hit their intended target.
Two sources noted that China appeared increasingly paranoid about a potential US attack during the same timeframe as that June 2020 nuclear test. In the lead-up to the 2020 US presidential election in November of the same year, Chinese officials even reached out to then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley because they were concerned about an “October surprise,” the sources said.
While those tensions ultimately subsided, China has taken steps in the years since to not only update its nuclear forces but also sought to modernize its entire military.
China’s nuclear ambitions have reemerged as a topic of intrigue in recent weeks after State Department officials revealed new details about, what they allege, was an explosive test carried out at the Lop Nur facility in June 2020 – disclosing the exact date, location and related seismic data about the event to support their conclusion. The connection to China also using the test to modernize its arsenal became clear in the follow-on study of the test, particularly given the seismic magnitude, a former senior official told CNN.
Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw told an event at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington this week the June 2020 event measured an “explosion” of magnitude 2.75.
“I’ve looked at additional data since then. There is very little possibility I would say that it is anything but an explosion, a singular explosion,” said Yeaw, adding that the data was not consistent with mining blasts.
“It’s also entirely not consistent with an earthquake,” said Yeaw, a former intelligence analyst and defense official who holds a doctorate in nuclear engineering. “It is … what you would expect with a nuclear explosive test.”
Earlier this month, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno also publicly accused China of having secretly carried out an explosive nuclear test in 2020 and suggested the US had obtained intelligence indicating Beijing planned to carry out more.
“I can reveal that the U.S. Government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons. The PLA (People’s Liberation Army) sought to conceal testing by obfuscating the nuclear explosions because it recognized these tests violate test ban commitments,” DiNanno said during a February 6 speech.
CNN has since learned that additional intelligence collected by the US after the June 2020 event served as a key piece of the puzzle as experts have argued that the seismic data is not, on it’s own, enough to definitively conclude it was a nuclear test or understand why it was carried out.
When asked about the allegation of secret nuclear testing earlier this month, Liu, the spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, DC, said China “follows a policy of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons and a nuclear strategy that focuses on self-defense, and adheres to its nuclear testing moratorium.”
“We stand ready to work with all parties to jointly uphold the authority of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty and safeguard the international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime,” he said.
“It’s hoped that the US will earnestly abide by its obligations under the Treaty and its commitment to a moratorium on nucleartesting and take concrete actions to uphold the international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime, as well as global strategic balance and stability,” he told CNN.
The timing of the Trump administration’s decision to reveal details about an alleged test that took place nearly six years ago is also notable as it comes as the US is insisting China join any new nuclear arms agreement, overtures Chinese leader Xi Jinping has so far resisted, sources said.
Trump has suggested the US could resume explosive testing of its own.
Ultimately, China has more to gain from conducting explosive tests than the US, raising questions about why the State Department took the rare step of disclosing specifics about the event from June 2020 at this point, multiple sources said.
That move suggests the Trump administration is concerned about public diplomacy with Beijing – particularly ahead of the president’s upcoming trip to the country in April, one source familiar with discussions between the two countries noted.
But current US officials also noted that the Trump administration is determined to draw China into a nuclear deal, suggesting that the revelation of a slice of what the US knows about their current efforts could pressure them into discussions.
“The old arms control paradigm is collapsing as China races to grow its nuclear arsenal,” said Alex Gray, former NSC chief of staff and now senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “The Administration is grappling with not just Russian strategic weapons but a much more concerning Chinese nuclear expansion. Unless we can negotiate an arms control framework that encompasses Beijing, the US doesn’t need to mindlessly adhere to outdated arms control nostrums that don’t capture the threats of today and tomorrow.”
The rapid growth and modernization of the PLA also serves as a fulfilment of Xi’s more than decade-old promise to transform the world’s largest armed forces into a world-class military.
“This is a reflection of China’s sweeping global ambitions … this is one of the clearest signals of that of almost anything that China is doing,” one of the sources added, noting Beijing’s actions must inform how the US prepares for future conflicts.
