By Kevin Liptak, Kylie Atwood, Zachary Cohen, Jennifer Hansler
2小时前
发布于2026年2月24日，美国东部时间上午12:00
2026年2月6日，阿拉伯海，美国海军亚伯拉罕·林肯号航空母舰及其他舰艇编队航行。
一等兵杰西·莫/美国海军
在下令自伊拉克战争爆发以来美国在中东地区最大规模的军事集结后，总统唐纳德·特朗普现在必须就伊朗问题做出决策。
他面前的选项目前已相对明确，总统本人在过去几周的非正式问答环节中对此进行了模糊确认，熟悉相关情况的人士也对此进行了更详细的描述。这些选项范围广泛，部分选项伴随着重大风险，并且他正从盟友、顾问和外国对手那里听到有时相互矛盾的建议。
- 特朗普可能根本不采取任何军事行动，希望在伊朗海岸附近部署的两艘航空母舰、数十艘军舰和数百架战机的存在能促使伊朗领导人达成协议。
- 他可能下令对军事目标进行有限打击，以强调其要求伊朗放弃任何制造核武器能力的立场。
- 他可能批准旨在推翻伊朗领导层的攻击行动，即使其后续政权状况尚不明朗——这是更为强硬的做法。
“所有关于美伊潜在战争的报道都不正确，而且是故意为之，”特朗普周一在Truth Social上宣称。“我才是做决定的人，我宁愿达成协议，但若无法达成，那个国家及其人民将迎来非常糟糕的一天。”
目前尚不清楚特朗普具体希望达成什么目标，以及他为何现在考虑采取行动，或者他可能依赖哪些法律依据在八个月内对伊朗发动第二次攻击。
他几乎没有努力为潜在的战争或不战争建立公开理由。在幕后，特朗普正听取关于是否下令新打击行动的不同意见，或者考虑到陷入长期冲突的严重风险，允许外交努力继续推进。
以下是特朗普正在考虑的路径，以及政府对每条路径的思考。
选项1：让外交发挥作用
白宫高级官员继续表示，特朗普倾向于与伊朗达成协议，避免任何形式的军事对抗。
他的特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和女婿贾里德·库什纳在过去几周一直与伊朗官员进行间接谈判，并将于周四重返瑞士日内瓦进行新一轮谈判。两人都鼓励总统给予时间，看看是否有可能达成协议，尽管维特科夫周六表示，特朗普“好奇”为何伊朗在谈判中没有“投降”。
在这张由白宫提供的照片中，特别代表史蒂夫·维特科夫坐在 Situation Room 内，官员们正在监控2025年6月21日打击伊朗核设施的行动。
丹尼尔·托洛克/白宫/图片提供/盖蒂图片社
双方都划出了红线——部分红线直接冲突。特朗普表示，伊朗不应被允许进行任何铀浓缩活动。伊朗则称这是其权利，并坚称其核计划仅用于和平目的。
熟悉相关情况的消息人士称，伊朗仍在制定一份可能弥合分歧的提案，并期望在周四的高风险谈判前与来自阿曼的调解人分享该提案。
一位熟悉谈判的地区消息人士表示：“本周四将决定一切，是战争还是协议。”
特朗普去年在另一场计划中的美伊会谈前对伊朗核计划发动了突袭，但据美国官员称，这次地区消息来源预计总统团队将在日内瓦谈判前再采取任何军事行动。
然而，就在谈判前几天，消息人士称伊朗的提案似乎不会包含对零铀浓缩的承诺。这一要求长期以来一直是86岁的伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的死穴，他将批准或否决任何协议。
伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇周日明确表示，零铀浓缩不在谈判桌上。
“我们的科学家自主研发了这项技术，这对我们非常重要，因为我们付出了巨大代价——我们为此投入了巨额资金，”阿拉格奇在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）上说。“这现在是伊朗人的尊严和自豪问题，我们不会放弃。”
伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇2026年2月17日在瑞士日内瓦参加第二轮美伊会谈。
西里尔·赞加罗/法新社/图片提供/盖蒂图片社
此外，根据最近与伊朗的讨论，据一位消息人士称，伊朗政权似乎不会提供与去年美国发动打击前双方讨论的内容有实质性不同的提议。
然而，熟悉相关情况的第二位地区消息人士称，美国和伊朗似乎都在谈判中试图更加“创新”，但关于是否能达成协议仍存疑问。一个被提出的想法是允许伊朗微量浓缩燃料，同时保证仅用于医疗目的。这也是去年外交谈判失败时讨论过的一个想法。
“我认为美国人正在等待伊朗给出正确答案。我不知道伊朗能否给出美国人期望的正确答案，”第二位地区消息人士表示。
选项2：有限打击以促成协议
特朗普可能下令对伊朗境内特定军事目标进行打击，以迫使伊朗领导人同意达成可接受的协议——展示美国行动威胁的真实性。
目标可能包括弹道导弹基地、与伊朗核计划相关的设施或伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）使用的建筑。
特朗普周五证实，有限打击是他正在考虑的选项之一。“我想可以说我正在考虑，”他在白宫表示。
这种行动是否会促使德黑兰达成协议，还是会坚定其抵制美国外交的决心，存在争议。许多地区官员表示，无论规模大小，他们都不相信如果美国发动打击，伊朗会迅速回到谈判桌前。
任何在伊朗境内的打击行动都有引发对美国在中东资产报复的风险，这是官员们在过去几周简报中反复警告特朗普的问题。伊朗曾警告，如果美国对其发动打击，美国军事基地可能成为目标。在去年6月对其核设施的打击后，伊朗进行了报复，尽管没有美国军人死亡。
美国军方人员在该地区已准备好执行一系列行动，如果特朗普下达命令。熟悉相关规划的消息人士称，美国军方已就位，能够执行任何潜在打击选项，并已在特朗普下达最终命令的情况下进行后勤准备。
消息人士称，这包括规划在不同目标集上使用的特定武器，并根据已制定的计划推演潜在战机出动的时间安排。
2026年2月15日，一架F/A-18E超级大黄蜂战机从阿拉伯海的亚伯拉罕·林肯号航空母舰飞行甲板起飞。
美国海军/图片提供/路透社
选项3：更大规模打击以推翻政权
如果外交失败，特朗普可能发动更大规模的行动，旨在推翻伊朗政权。据熟悉相关情况的消息人士称，目前已有足够的火力部署在伊朗周围，以执行总统可采取的最极端选项。
消息人士称，这可能包括对各种目标的同时打击，或多波次打击。这些目标可能包括伊朗领导人或与政权相关的机构，或军事人员和设施，包括防空系统、导弹生产基地和核设施。
消息人士称，伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）的使命是维护伊朗的伊斯兰统治，在任何军事行动中几乎肯定会成为打击目标。更复杂的问题是如何打击政府或自封的宗教领袖。
根据多位熟悉相关情况的消息人士称，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军和其他军事领导人对针对伊朗的重大、长期军事行动可能造成的规模、复杂性和潜在美军伤亡表示担忧。
消息人士称，他和五角大楼内部其他人还警告，此类行动将对部署在该地区的军人和资产造成潜在压力，以及长期军事行动可能对美国武器库存造成的进一步影响，特别是在支持以色列和乌克兰的武器方面。
目前尚不清楚凯恩向特朗普直接提出这些担忧的程度，但总统在周一的Truth Social帖子中表示，“凯恩和我们所有人一样，不希望看到战争，但如果决定在军事层面对伊朗采取行动，他认为这将是一场轻松取胜的战争。”
然而，任何旨在严重威胁伊朗政权未来的打击行动，很大程度上取决于对后续局势的理解。特朗普政府似乎没有明确的画面，即如果美国成功实现政权更迭，谁将取代领导层，并且其对伊朗国内反对派组织的了解也有限。
特朗普也没有得到任何确切保证，即即使美国在伊朗发动大规模军事行动，也能导致政权倒台。这种不确定性导致了白宫 Situation Room 近期的密集讨论，特朗普正在权衡他的选择。
特朗普团队中的许多人抱有希望——尽管并非完全乐观——认为外交会占上风，即使可接受的协议轮廓仍不清晰。但也有其他人在特朗普耳边坚持认为伊朗已严重削弱，现在是采取行动的时机。
Trump confronts his 3 main options on Iran — from diplomacy to trying to topple a regime
By Kevin Liptak, Kylie Atwood, Zachary Cohen, Jennifer Hansler
2 hr ago
PUBLISHED Feb 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and other vessels sail in formation in the Arabian Sea on February 6, 2026.
Petty Officer 1st Class Jesse Mo/US Navy
After ordering the largest American military buildup in the Middle East since the onset of the Iraq War, President Donald Trump now has a decision to make on Iran.
The options before him now appear relatively well established, confirmed in vague terms by the president himself during informal question-and-answer sessions over the last several weeks and described in more detail by people familiar with the matter. They range widely, with some carrying significant risks, and he’s hearing sometimes conflicting advice from allies, advisers and foreign counterparts.
- Trump could hold off ordering any military action at all, hoping the presence of two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships and hundreds of warplanes off Iran’s coasts might convince its leaders to make a deal.
- He could order a limited strike on military targets to drive home his demands that Iran abandon any ability to build nuclear weapons.
- He could approve an attack intended to topple Iran’s leaders, even if what replaces them remains unknown — the more maximalist approach.
“Everything that has been written about a potential War with Iran has been written incorrectly, and purposefully so,” Trump declared on Truth Social on Monday. “I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people.”
Less clear is what, precisely, Trump is looking to accomplish. It’s also a bit of a mystery why he is considering action right now or what legal authorities he might rely upon to launch the second attack on Iran in the span of eight months.
He’s made little attempt to build a public case for or against a potential war. Behind the scenes, Trump is hearing differing opinions on whether to order new strikes or — given the serious risk of becoming mired in a prolonged conflict — allow diplomatic efforts to continue.
Here are the paths Trump is considering, and how the administration is thinking about each one.
Option 1: Let diplomacy play out
Top White House officials continue to say Trump’s preference is to secure a deal with Iran that avoids any type of military confrontation.
His envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner have been conducting indirect talks with Iranian officials over the last several weeks and will return to Geneva, Switzerland, on Thursday for another round. Both men have encouraged the president to allow time to see whether a deal is possible, though Witkoff said Saturday that Trump is “curious” as to why Iran hasn’t “capitulated” in negotiations.
In this handout provided by the White House, special envoy Steve Witkoff sits in the Situation Room as officials monitor the mission that struck Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025.
Daniel Torok/The White House/Handout/Getty Images
Each side has drawn red lines — and some directly conflict. Trump says Iran should not be allowed to enrich any uranium. Iran says that is its right, and insists its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes.
The Iranians are still working on a proposal that might bridge that gap and expect to share it with mediators from Oman before Thursday’s high-stakes talks, according to a source familiar with the matter.
“This Thursday will decide everything, a war or a deal,” said a regional source familiar with the talks.
Trump launched surprise strikes on Iran’s nuclear program last year ahead of another scheduled round of US-Iran talks, but this time regional sources expect the president’s team will go to the table in Geneva before taking any military action, based on discussions with US officials.
Still, days before the talks, it did not appear the Iranian proposal would include a commitment to zero uranium enrichment, sources said. The demand has long been a nonstarter for 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, who will approve or veto any deal.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, made clear on Sunday that zero enrichment was not on the table.
“We have developed this technology by ourselves, by our scientists, and it’s very dear to us, because we have paid a lot — we have paid a huge expense for that,” Araghchi said on CBS. “That is now a matter of dignity and pride for Iranians, and we are not going to give it up.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaks in Geneva, Switzerland, during a second round of US-Iranian talks on February 17, 2026.
Cyril Zingaro/AFP/POOL/Getty Images
Furthermore, based on discussions with Iran in recent days, it does not appear the regime is prepared to make any offers to the US that are substantially different from what was discussed between the two sides last year leading up to the US strikes, a source said.
Still, both the US and Iran seem to be trying to be more “creative” in negotiations, a second regional source familiar with the matter said, but questions remain about whether a deal can be reached. One idea that’s been floated is allowing Iran to enrich very small amounts of fuel, with guarantees they be used only for medical purposes. That was also an idea discussed during unsuccessful diplomatic talks last year.
“I think the Americans are waiting for the right answers from the Iranians. I don’t know if the Iranians can come up with the right answers that Americans are expecting,” the second regional source said.
Option 2: A limited strike to force deal-making
Trump may order a targeted attack on select military sites inside Iran to pressure the country’s leaders into agreeing to an acceptable deal — demonstrating US threats of action are real.
The targets could include ballistic missile sites, facilities connected to Iran’s nuclear program or buildings used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Trump on Friday confirmed a limited strike was something he was weighing. “I guess I can say I am considering,” he said at the White House.
Whether such an action would convince Tehran to make a deal — or harden its resolve to resist US diplomacy — is a matter of dispute. Many regional officials said they did not believe Iran would quickly return to the negotiating table if the US carried out a strike, no matter the scale.
Any strike inside Iran also risks retaliation toward US assets in the Middle East, something officials have repeatedly warned Trump about during briefings over the last weeks. Iran has warned that American military bases could become targets if it is struck. The country did retaliate after June’s strikes on its nuclear facilities, though no American troops were killed.
US military personnel in the region are prepared to execute a range of operations should Trump give the order. The US military has the assets in place to carry out any of the potential strike options and has been making logistical preparations in the event Trump gives a final order, according to a source familiar with the planning.
That includes mapping out the specific weapons that would be used on various target sets and running through the timing of potential aircraft sorties based on the plans that have been drawn up, the source said.
An F/A-18E Super Hornet prepares to launch from the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea on February 15, 2026.
US Navy/Handout/Reuters
Option 3: A larger strike going after the regime
If diplomacy fails, Trump could launch a far larger operation meant to topple the Iranian regime. There is already plenty of firepower positioned around Iran to carry out even the most extreme options available to the president, according to a source familiar with the matter.
That could include a series of simultaneous strikes against various targets, or multiple waves of strikes, the source said. Those targets could include a mix of Iranian leaders or components tied to the regime, or military personnel and installations, including air defenses, missile production sites and nuclear facilities.
The IRGC, whose mission is to preserve Islamic rule in Iran, will almost certainly be targeted in any military operation, the source said. More complicated would be the question of how to target government or self-appointed religious leaders.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders have raised concerns about the scale, complexity and potential for US casualties that could result from a major, extended military operation against Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
He and others inside the Pentagon have also warned about the potential strain such an operation would put on service members and assets deployed in the region, as well as how a protracted military campaign could further impact US weapons stockpiles, particularly as it relates to arms used in support of Israel and Ukraine, the sources said.
It was not immediately clear to what extent Caine has raised these concerns to Trump directly, but the president said in a Monday Truth Social post that “Caine, like all of us, would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won.”
Still, any strikes intended to seriously threaten the regime’s future hinges, in large part, on understanding what comes next. The Trump administration does not appear to have a clear picture of who would replace the leadership if the US successfully carries out regime change, and its visibility inside the country’s opposition groups appears limited.
Nor has Trump received any firm guarantee that even a massive US military operation inside Iran would result in the regime’s ouster. That lack of certainty has informed intensive sessions inside the White House Situation Room in recent days, as Trump debates his options.
Many on Trump’s team are hopeful — if not entirely optimistic — that diplomacy will prevail, even if the outlines of an acceptable deal are still unclear. Still others in Trump’s ear have insisted Iran is badly weakened, and the time for action is now.