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战争削弱特朗普权力，新政治力量崛起
分析报道
斯蒂芬·科林森
4小时前发布
美国东部时间2026年3月27日，上午12:00
唐纳德·特朗普
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唐纳德·特朗普总统在华盛顿特区联合车站举行的全国共和党国会委员会年度筹款晚宴上发表讲话。
朱莉娅·德马雷·尼金森/美联社
今年春天，美国的政治变革种子正在萌芽。
在重大事件的漩涡中，往往难以确定具体的转折点。但政治永不停歇——即使是无处不在的总统也会认为自己完全掌控一切。
一个动荡的政治环境似乎正走向一个关键节点。特朗普总统会继续像过去十多年那样主导时代精神吗？还是他释放的力量以及其他不受其控制的力量会将他推向跛脚鸭状态，并引领美国走向一个他不再是主导声音的未来？
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衡量特朗普政治力量的一个持久指标：他对国会山共和党人的控制。随着议员们对他领导伊朗政策表示不满，这一控制终于受到考验——去年年底在“爱泼斯坦文件”问题上的反抗就是先例。
他强硬的移民政策引发了美国国土安全部危机，导致机场排起长龙，这可能会加深更广泛的政治低迷感。政府停摆很少有利于任何一方——但一个国家漂泊无依的印象通常会反弹到不受欢迎的总统身上。
人们参加了2026年在德克萨斯州葡萄藤举行的保守政治行动会议。
卡拉汉·奥黑尔/路透社
尽管民主党尚未赢回选民的信任，但他们正从2024年的惨败中恢复过来。现在，共和党人正恐惧地盯着选民，因为2024年是“扔出无能者”的选举年。“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的分裂引发了对其未来影响力的质疑，而民主党内部的代际紧张局势也在升温。
对食品和住房价格上涨的担忧日益加剧——伊朗战争可能会加剧这一情况——正在为2028年总统选举打造一个明显的民粹主义背景。经济合作与发展组织周四预测，这场战争将使美国今年的通胀率超过4.0%，高于去年12月预测的2.8%。
特朗普声称已解决负担能力危机，现在看来这一切都成了空谈。他似乎仍然对许多美国人的困境漠不关心，周四他表示，汽油价格的突然上涨“并没有他预期的那么严重”，因为战争。
并非所有可能重塑政治的事件都发生在华盛顿。洛杉矶陪审团本周作出了一项具有里程碑意义的判决，裁定YouTube和Meta（原Facebook）明知其平台对年轻人构成风险，并对一名年轻女性的心理健康问题负有责任。
这些公司计划上诉。但这一裁决可能会在科技巨头的权力中打开一道小裂缝。这可能会促使雄心勃勃的政客在竞选活动中更加强调家长对社交媒体及其侵入性的表亲人工智能的担忧。
并非每颗种子都能发芽。但政治正在演变。
记者举手提问，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫内阁会议上注视着。
吉姆·沃森/法新社/盖蒂图片社
特朗普面临最大政治考验
特朗普已经主导美国政治生活11年了。但十多年后，即使是民主社会中定义时代的政治家也开始失去势头——已故英国首相玛格丽特·撒切尔和前德国总理安格拉·默克尔就是例子。
这位将在几个月后年满80岁的美国总统，在发动一场没有赢得国家支持、也没有明确定义理由或退出策略的战争时，面临着他两届任期内最严峻的挑战。
一年前，特朗普正在实施现代历史上最激进的行政权力展示，通过攻击大型律师事务所、常春藤盟校和媒体机构，粉碎自由派建制派。
12个月后，他正在迅速下滑。过去一周的三项民调显示，他的支持率低于40%，不支持率高达60%或以上。美国有线电视新闻网的民调综合显示，总统的支持率为38%——远低于现任总统在中期选举年的安全区间。
特朗普的战争领导常常前后矛盾，充斥着威胁、最后期限和红线。
本周早些时候，他预测和平协议可能即将达成，并表示希望达成协议，但周四却突然表示：“我完全不着急。我不在乎。”
几小时后——又是一个急转弯。特朗普暂停了对伊朗发电厂的空袭，该行动旨在迫使伊斯兰共和国开放霍尔木兹海峡，直到4月6日。
国防部长彼得·赫格塞斯周四在内阁会议上无意中强调了总统当前政治时刻的危险。
“这是历史书上的内容。这是关乎遗产的内容，”赫格塞斯对他的老板说。他说得对：这场战争现在可能会定义总统的第二个任期。如果他不能很快以明确的胜利结束战争，它将在后世困扰他。
保守政治行动会议（CPAC） 的标志和描绘唐纳德·特朗普总统的图像，于周三在德克萨斯州葡萄藤举行。
卡拉汉·奥黑尔/路透社
特朗普对共和党人的控制正在松动
特朗普的权力长期以来建立在对共和党无情的控制之上。最近的民调显示，总统决定违背不发动新对外战争的承诺并没有吓退他最忠实的选民。但他分裂了2024年将他重新推上权力顶峰的扩大联盟，尤其是独立选民开始脱离。昆尼皮亚克大学本月的一项民调显示，68%的独立选民不赞成总统的做法。
本周的年度保守政治行动会议（CPAC）本应是特朗普喧闹的胜利巡游，但今年却因“让美国再次伟大”运动的分裂而黯然失色——这可能暗示该运动不仅在以色列问题上分裂，还在其后特朗普时代的道路上分裂。
佛罗里达州一名民主党人周二在包含特朗普海湖庄园的深红选区赢得州议会席位，这是政治变革的另一个迹象。专家往往会对小选举反应过度，尤其是那些具有明显象征意义的选举。但在过去一年中，民主党在特别选举和定期选举中已经赢得了30个州议会席位。难怪今年有35名众议院共和党成员退休或寻求更高职位——这是至少自1930年以来最多的一次。
特朗普未能解释他在伊朗的战争目标，这并没有帮助共和党人的紧张情绪。众议院武装部队委员会主席迈克·罗杰斯周三表示，“两党在最近几次简报会上都感到沮丧”。他说，议员们缺乏关于地面部队计划、最终目标或战争预期成本的足够信息。与此同时，宾夕法尼亚州共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克想知道为什么更多的美国海军陆战队和空降部队被派往中东。“我们目前没有明确的信息，我们没有，我们需要得到它，”他说。
民主党准备党内对决
政治格局在左翼也在发生变化。
民主党仍在应对前总统拜登因年龄问题退出竞选而引发的代际和意识形态动荡。这种紧张关系在中期初选中显现出来。例如，在缅因州，民调显示建制派候选人州长珍妮特·米尔斯在参议院民主党初选中落后于牡蛎养殖者、民粹主义进步派格雷厄姆·普拉特纳。这场竞选对民主党重新夺回参议院并最终击败长期执政的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯至关重要。
参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默于3月20日在华盛顿进入电梯。
汤姆·布伦纳/美联社
本月，在《华尔街日报》报道一些民主党人对少数党领袖查克·舒默的领导感到厌倦后，相对年轻的力量在参议院显现出来。该报称，康涅狄格州参议员克里斯·墨菲上月在一次私人晚宴上透露，一些同事一直在进行投票计数，看看是否有足够的支持来罢免这位纽约民主党人——他是奥巴马和前众议院议长南希·佩洛西时代遗留下来的最后一位政党领袖。
墨菲周三告诉美国有线电视新闻网的菲尔·马廷利，“舒默的工作非常艰难。”但他补充说：“很多人希望党团更努力、更长时间地坚持我们的原则，这已经不是什么秘密了。”
对舒默领导地位的猜测是未来政治时代的一个预兆。特朗普将不再是政治重心的迹象更为重要。
新的华盛顿还需要一段时间才能形成。但将构成其基础的政治趋势已开始显现。
唐纳德·特朗普
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Analysis by
Stephen Collinson
4 hr ago
PUBLISHED Mar 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Donald Trump
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President Donald Trump speaks at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s annual fundraising dinner, on Wednesday at Union Station in Washington, DC.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
In America this spring, seeds of political change are stirring.
In the middle of seismic events, it’s often hard to identify a specific pivot point. But politics is never still — even when omnipresent presidents believe they are in total control.
A turbulent political environment appears to be headed for a crystalizing moment. Will President Donald Trump continue to dominate the zeitgeist as he has for more than a decade? Or will forces he’s unleashed — and others beyond his control — consign him to lame-duck status and move the country toward a future where he’s no longer its dominant voice?
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Take one enduring measure of Trump’s political strength: his stranglehold on Capitol Hill Republicans. It’s finally being tested as lawmakers express frustration about his leadership over Iran, following a revolt over the Epstein files late last year.
A more general sense of political malaise is likely to be deepened by long airport lines in a Department of Homeland Security crisis sparked by his hardline immigration policies. Government shutdowns rarely benefit either party — but impressions of a nation adrift often rebound against unpopular presidents.
People attend the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, on Thursday.
Callaghan O’Hare/Reuters
And while Democrats might not yet have won back voters’ trust, they’re emerging from their 2024 debacle. Now, it’s Republicans who are fearfully eyeing voters on a streak of throw-the-bums-out elections. Splits in the MAGA movement are raising questions about its future potency, while generational tensions are boiling in the Democratic Party.
Worsening anxiety about high prices for food and housing — likely to be exacerbated by the Iran war — are curating a distinctly populist backdrop to the 2028 presidential election. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted Thursday that the war would send US inflation above 4.0% this year, up from the 2.8% it forecast in December.
So much for Trump’s claim to have solved the affordability crisis. He continues to seem indifferent to the struggles of many Americans, saying Thursday that the abrupt rise in gas prices “hasn’t been nearly as severe” as he’d expected due to the war.
Not every event that may reshape politics is about Washington. A Los Angeles jury this week delivered a landmark judgment against You Tube and Meta, ruling that social media bosses knew their platforms posed risks for young people and bore responsibility for a young woman’s mental health challenges.
The companies plan to appeal. But the ruling may open a small crack in the power of tech giants. It might tempt ambitious politicians to lean harder into parental concerns about social media — and its invasive cousin AI — in campaigns.
Not every seed germinates. But politics is evolving.
Reporters raise their hands to ask questions as President Donald Trump looks on during a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, on Thursday.
Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
Trump faces his biggest political test
Trump has commandeered American political life now for 11 years. But after a decade or more, even era-defining politicians in democratic societies begin to lose altitude — Britain’s late Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel come to mind.
The US president, who turns 80 in a few months, has taken on the most profound challenge of his two terms in power by launching a war without winning over the country and clearly defining a rationale or an exit strategy.
A year ago, Trump was orchestrating the most aggressive display of executive power in modern history, crushing pillars of the liberal establishment with assaults on big law firms, Ivy League universities and media outlets.
Twelve months later, he’s sliding fast. Three opinion polls in the last week have his approval below 40% and voter disapproval at a perilous 60% or above. The CNN Poll of Polls puts the president’s approval at 38% — well below the safe zone for parties of incumbent presidents in midterm election years.
Trump’s war leadership has often been incoherent, unfolding in a flurry of threats, deadlines and red lines.
After predicting earlier this week that a peace deal could be imminent and saying he wanted a deal, the president snapped Thursday, “I’m the opposite of desperate. I don’t care.”
A few hours later — more whiplash. Trump suspended air strikes on Iranian power plants, designed to force the Islamic Republic to open the Strait of Hormuz, until April 6.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth inadvertently highlighted the danger of the political moment for the president Thursday during a Cabinet meeting.
“This is stuff for the history books. This is stuff for legacy,” Hegseth told his boss. He’s right: The war is now likely to define the president’s second term. If he can’t find a way to get out of it with a clear win soon, it will haunt him in posterity.
A logo of CPAC and an image depicting President Donald Trump during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, on Wednesday.
Callaghan O’Hare/Reuters
Trump’s grip on the GOP is loosening
Trump’s power has long been based on relentless control of the Republican Party. Recent polling shows the president’s decision to go back on a promise not to wage new foreign wars hasn’t scared off his most loyal voters. But he’s fractured the expanded coalition that brought him back to power in 2024, with independent voters especially peeling away. A Quinnipiac University poll this month showed 68% of that cohort disapproving of the president.
A sense that the president’s political foundation is less robust is underscored by this week’s annual Conservative Political Action Conference. Normally a raucous victory lap for Trump, this year’s event seems overshadowed by MAGA fractures that may hint at a movement that is not just split over Israel but over its path to a post-Trump future.
In another sign of political change, a Florida Democrat won a state legislature seat Tuesday in a deep-red district that contains Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. Pundits often tend to overreact to minor election contests, especially those with such obvious symbolism. But Democrats have flipped 30 seats in state legislatures in special and regularly scheduled elections over the last year. No wonder 35 House GOP members are retiring or seeking higher office this year — the most since at least 1930.
Trump is not helping Republican jitters by his failure to explain his war aims in Iran. House Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers on Wednesday described “frustration on both sides of the aisle in the last few briefings” from top officials. He said members lacked adequate information about plans for ground troops, the end goal or the expected price tag of the war. Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, meanwhile, wants to know why more US Marines and airborne troops are being sent to the Middle East. “We do not have clarity at the moment, we do not, and we need to get it,” he said.
Democrats gird for an intra-party duel
The political terrain is also shifting on the left.
Democrats are still working through the generational and ideological churn unleashed after advancing age derailed former President Joe Biden’s bid for a second term. This tension is playing out in midterm primaries. In Maine, for instance, polls show the establishment candidate Gov. Janet Mills trailing oyster farmer and populist progressive Graham Platner in the Senate Democratic primary. The race is critical to Democratic hopes of taking back the chamber and finally pushing out longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer enters an elevator at the US Capitol on March 20 in Washington.
Tom Brenner/AP
The relative youth movement also broke surface in the Senate this month following a Wall Street Journal report that some Democrats were tiring of Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s leadership. The Journal said Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy revealed at a private dinner last month that some colleagues had been conducting vote counts to see if there was enough support to remove the New York Democrat — the last remnant of an era of party leaders dating back to the days of former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Murphy told CNN’s Phil Mattingly on Wednesday that “Schumer has a very hard job.” But he added: “It hasn’t been, you know, a secret that a lot of us have wanted the caucus to fight harder and to hold out longer for our principles.”
Speculation over Schumer’s leadership is one harbinger of a future political era. The signs that Trump will one day no longer be the center of gravity are even more significant.
The new Washington is a ways off. But the political trends that will form its foundation are beginning to emerge.
Donald Trump
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