2026-03-11T06:00:17-0400 / CBS新闻
上周得克萨斯州初选中，拉丁裔选民推动了创纪录的投票率——其中大多数人参与了民主党初选——这一趋势民主党人正密切关注，他们试图重新赢得该群体的支持，并在这个倾向共和党的州的参议院竞选中实现意外胜利。
上周的选举中，超过440万张选票被投出，超过了2024年和2020年的总统初选。拉丁裔选民是高投票率的重要推动力，特别是在像南得克萨斯这样的拉丁裔人口占多数的地区，这些地区在2024年总统选举中倾向于特朗普总统。
相对于2020年、2022年和2024年的平均水平，拉丁裔占多数的县今年的初选投票数增长了约37%。得克萨斯州其他县的总增长接近33%。与美国-墨西哥边境接壤的圣塔县和伊达尔戈县等拉丁裔人口众多的县，增幅最为显著——分别达到67%和51%。
一个原因是新的初选选民中拉丁裔占比过高。例如，在拉丁裔早期选民中，整整三分之一的人在最近一次初选中没有投票。而且今年拉丁裔选民的投票倾向明显偏向民主党。选民档案中的选区数据和个人层面数据都表明，约四分之三的拉丁裔选民选择参加民主党初选而非共和党初选——新的初选选民更是如此。
民主党在拉丁裔选民中的支持率日益下滑。皮尤研究中心对确认选民的调查显示，特朗普先生在2024年赢得了全国48%的拉丁裔选民支持，比四年前增长了12个百分点。在得克萨斯州，民主党人认为拉丁裔选民至关重要，一些格兰德河沿岸的拉丁裔人口密集县从民主党坚固堡垒变成了浅红色地区。
但民主党希望今年拉丁裔选民能重新转向支持他们。
“这无疑是共和党人的一面红旗，一场五级警报的火灾，”政治分析师、资深加利福尼亚州共和党战略家迈克·马德里说，他一直批评特朗普先生。“现在他们能缓解吗？是的。他们在采取措施限制损失吗？没有。”
马德里认为，关税政策的实施是共和党人在拉丁裔选民中支持率下滑的开始。马德里认为，随着全国各地，包括美墨边境城镇的移民突袭行动，这种下滑进一步加速。最近的民调显示，大多数美国人——包括大多数拉丁裔受访者——不赞成特朗普先生处理移民的方式，并认为他过于专注于对外国商品征收关税。
“他们将不得不与特朗普的关键政策划清界限，同时又不疏远特朗普，”马德里说。“这非常困难。”
周二，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊在谈到2026年中期选举中的拉丁裔选民时表示，共和党正处于“路线调整模式”。
“我们在某些方面让一些西班牙裔和拉丁裔选民感到了一些小的意外，因为一些移民执法行动被认为过于激进，每个人的描述可能不同，”来自路易斯安那州的共和党人约翰逊说。“但好消息是，我们现在正处于路线调整模式。”
据两名在场人士透露，白宫副幕僚长詹姆斯·布莱尔在周二的闭门简报会上鼓励众议院共和党人在中期选举前讨论其议程时，避免强调“大规模驱逐”。据这些人士称，布莱尔表示，立法者应该关注政府针对并驱逐在美国非法居留的暴力罪犯的努力。
布莱尔说，移民仍然是共和党人的一个制胜议题，帮助特朗普先生重返白宫，但他鼓励立法者关注公共安全。
Axios首先报道了布莱尔的评论。
当被问及布莱尔的言论时，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特告诉CBS新闻：“没有人在改变政府的移民执法议程。特朗普总统的最高优先事项一直是驱逐危害美国社区的非法滞留罪犯。”
一名白宫官员表示，政府的移民政策没有改变，布莱尔“只是在强调我们知道最能引起共鸣的政策信息。”
塔拉利科关注拉丁裔选民
拉丁裔选民的高投票率帮助推动了州议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科（James Talarico）的民主党参议院竞选，他在上周的初选中获胜，并有望成为1988年以来得克萨斯州首位赢得参议院席位的民主党人。塔拉利科在该州拉丁裔人口众多的地区表现优于其民主党对手——美国众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特（Jasmine Crockett）。
塔拉利科的竞选团队通过早期接触（其中一些是用西班牙语进行的）试图争取拉丁裔选民。为此，塔拉利科依靠了拥有超过2000万社交媒体粉丝的西班牙裔TikTok网红卡洛斯·爱德华多·埃斯皮纳（Carlos Eduardo Espina）。埃斯皮纳称自己是志愿帮忙，他发布支持塔拉利科的视频，为塔拉利科竞选造势，并帮助这位36岁的神学院学生-政治家制作西班牙语社交媒体内容。
“我们正处于这样一个阶段，除了塔拉利科之外，一般来说，如果你想在得克萨斯州获胜，尤其是在州级层面，没有西班牙语交流几乎是不可能的，”埃斯皮纳告诉CBS新闻。
埃斯皮纳表示，他计划继续分享塔拉利科的竞选信息以及其他民主党国会候选人的信息，希望通过他的社交媒体内容在11月翻转得克萨斯州的红色席位，覆盖数百万西班牙裔人口。
“我不认为自己是一个强硬的民主党人，”埃斯皮纳告诉CBS新闻。“我只是认为在这个时刻，考虑到所有情况，我能为我的社区做的最好的事情就是倡导积极的变革，并且我努力与不仅仅是任何民主党人，而是那些我认为能代表我和我的社区的民主党人结盟。”
虽然人们普遍预计拉丁裔得克萨斯人（约占该州人口的40%）将在参议院及其他州级竞选中发挥关键作用，但民主党受益的程度可能取决于最终的共和党参议院候选人是谁。
在共和党初选中，现任参议员约翰·科恩（John Cornyn）出人意料地表现优于其对手——得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton），在拉丁裔占多数的地区表现尤为突出。
“我们知道，11月的大选投票率会非常高，”马德里在谈到11月的大选时表示。“它将更偏向民主党，但问题是偏向的程度有多大？”
重新划分选区的作用
去年，应特朗普先生的要求，得克萨斯州共和党人重新划分了该州的国会选区，使五个民主党席位在2026年中期选举前更有利于共和党人。
这些边界是根据投票数据划定的，同时考虑到共和党人在2024年从拉丁裔选民中获得的收益——这意味着共和党国会候选人需要在今年的中期选举中复制这些收益，才能保住席位并可能翻转席位。
一场备受关注的众议院竞选将在一个拉丁裔占多数的选区举行，该选区从格兰德河谷延伸到圣安东尼奥东部地区。
共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹（Monica De La Cruz）将在第15国会选区寻求连任，对手是民主党候选人博比·普利多（Bobby Pulido），一位特哈诺音乐明星。该选区近年来一直强烈倾向共和党，但随着拉丁裔选民向左翼倾斜，民主党希望翻转该选区。
“我听到了他们的担忧，”德拉克鲁兹在上周得克萨斯州初选前被问及拉丁裔选民时告诉CBS新闻。“我也理解他们不想回到拜登政府时期发生的混乱和缺乏法律与秩序的状态，”德拉克鲁兹说。“他们要求一个安全的边境，特朗普总统已经实现了这一点，下一步是制定对所有人都有效的执法政策。”
这位得克萨斯州共和党女议员呼吁国会就移民问题寻求两党解决方案，例如为建筑工人提供临时工作签证，该行业受国会选区内移民逮捕的影响。
虽然上周民主党候选人的高拉丁裔投票率可能对共和党人来说是个问题，但一些人警告不要从初选结果中得出太多结论。
“当你查看2002年、2004年、2008年和2020年得克萨斯州的一些历史数据时，数据显示更多的西班牙裔参加了民主党初选，但在同一年的大选中，共和党人仍然在全州范围内赢得了选举，”Libre Action Texas组织顾问豪尔赫·马丁内斯（Jorge Martinez）说。
Libre Action支持特朗普支持的共和党国会候选人埃里克·弗洛雷斯（Eric Flores），他希望击败民主党现任议员维森特·冈萨雷斯（Vicente Gonzalez）。
冈萨雷斯代表一个在去年重新划分选区后更有利于共和党的边境选区。据马丁内斯称，该地区的拉丁裔选民特别关注经济状况和移民执法问题，他强调实地选民接触的重要性。
“看，如果你们不接触我们的社区，你们就会输掉，”马丁内斯说。“我们在过去几个选举周期中看到，共和党人通过接触选民取得了进展。我们多年来一直在那里，宣传议题，但你们也看到民主党人也在这样做，因为他们意识到他们把西班牙裔选民视为理所当然。”
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本文中的数据分析结合了选民登记名单以及县和选区层面的选举结果。选区结果来自18个不同的县，约占全州选区的一半。
奥利维亚·里纳尔迪（Olivia Rinaldi）为本文撰稿。
Latino Texans helped fuel a surge in Democratic primary turnout, as GOP aims to hold onto gains
2026-03-11T06:00:17-0400 / CBS News
Latino voters helped propel record turnout in last week’s Texas primaries — with most voting in the Democratic contest — a trend Democrats are watching closely as they try to reclaim ground with the group and pull off an upset win in the red-leaning state’s Senate contest.
Over 4.4 million ballots were cast in last week’s races, exceeding the 2024 and 2020 presidential primaries. Contributing to the huge turnout were Latino voters, especially in Latino-majority areas like South Texas that trended toward President Trump in 2024.
Relative to their average across 2020, 2022, and 2024, majority-Latino counties saw growth of approximately 37% in their primary votes this year. Other counties in Texas saw closer to a 33% increase in aggregate. Heavily Latino counties like Starr and Hidalgo, which sit along the U.S.-Mexico border, saw some of the biggest jumps — 67% and 51%, respectively.
One reason is that new primary voters were disproportionately Latino. Among Latino early voters, for example, a full third hadn’t turned out in a recent primary. And Latino turnout skewed heavily Democratic this year. Both precinct data and individual-level data from the voter file suggest that about three in four Latino voters chose to vote in the Democratic primary over the Republican one — new primary voters even more so.
Democrats have increasingly struggled with Latino voters. Mr. Trump won 48% of nationwide Latino voters in 2024, a 12-point jump from four years earlier, according to a Pew Research Center survey of confirmed voters. In Texas, where Democrats view Latino voters as crucial, some heavily Latino counties along the Rio Grande went from being Democratic strongholds to light-red areas.
But Democrats hope that Latino voters will shift back in their favor this year.
“There is no question this is a red flag for Republicans, a five alarm fire,” said Mike Madrid, a political analyst and veteran California GOP strategist who has been a critic of Mr. Trump. “Now can they mitigate it? Yes. Are they doing things to limit the damage? No.”
Madrid argues the implementation of tariffs is what started the “downslide” for Republicans among Latino voters. The decline further accelerated, Madrid believes, with immigration raids seen across the country, including in towns along the U.S.-Mexico border. Recent polling shows most Americans — including most Latino respondents — disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of immigration and feel he is overly focused on putting tariffs on foreign goods.
“They’re going to have to distance themselves from key Trump policies, without distancing themselves from Trump,” Madrid said. “That is very difficult to do.”
On Tuesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson said the Republican party is in a “course correction mode” while addressing the Latino vote in the 2026 midterms.
“We got a little hiccup with some of the Hispanic and Latino voters for certain because some of the immigration enforcement was viewed to be overzealous and everybody can describe it differently,” said Johnson, a Louisiana Republican. “But here’s the good news, we are in a course correction mode right now.”
White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair encouraged House Republicans in a closed-door briefing Tuesday to avoid emphasizing “mass deportations” when discussing his agenda ahead of the midterms, according to two sources in the room. Instead, Blair said lawmakers should focus on the administration’s efforts to target and remove violent criminals who are in the U.S. illegally, the sources said.
Blair said immigration remains a winning issue for Republicans that helped propel Mr. Trump back to the White House, but he encouraged lawmakers to focus on public safety.
Axios was first to report on Blair’s comments.
Asked about Blair’s remarks, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CBS News: “Nobody is changing the Administration’s immigration enforcement agenda. President Trump’s highest priority has always been the deportation of illegal alien criminals who endanger American communities.”
A White House official said the administration’s immigration policy hasn’t changed, and Blair “was just emphasizing the message that we know resonates the most with respect to the policy.”
Talarico focuses on Latino voters
High turnout among Latino voters helped boost the Democratic Senate bid of state Rep. James Talarico, who won last week’s primary and is looking to be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Talarico outperformed his Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, in the state’s heavily Latino areas.
Talarico’s campaign sought to court Latino voters through early outreach, with some done in Spanish. For that task, Talarico relied on Carlos Eduardo Espina, a Hispanic TikTok influencer with over 20 million followers across social media platforms. Espina — who says he acted as a volunteer — posted pro-Talarico videos, stumped for Talarico and helped the 36-year-old seminary student-turned-politician with Spanish-language social media content.
“We’re getting to a point where beyond Talarico, in general, if you want to win in Texas, it’s very hard to do so, especially at the state level, without having Spanish communication,” Espina told CBS News.
Espina says he plans on continuing to share Talarico’s campaign message and that of other Democratic congressional candidates in hopes of flipping red Texas seats in November through his social media content that reaches millions of Hispanics.
“I don’t consider myself to be a hardline Democrat,” Espina told CBS News. “I just think at this moment, with everything going on, the best thing I can do for my community is advocate for a positive change and I try to align myself with not just any Democrat, but Democrats that I feel speak to me and my community.”
While it is largely expected that Latino Texans — who make up around 40% of the state’s population — will be critical in determining the outcome of the Senate race, among other races in the state, the degree to which it benefits Democrats might depend on who ends up being the Republican Senate candidate.
In the Republican primary, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn defied expectations and also performed better in Latino-majority areas than his opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
“What we do know is there’s going to be a very high turnout,” Madrid said of November’s general election. “It will be more Democratic, but the question is how much more Democratic?”
The role of redistricting
Last year, at the request of Mr. Trump, Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional districts, making five Democratic seats more favorable for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.
These boundaries were drawn based on voting data, with the gains that Republicans made with Latino voters in 2024 in mind — meaning GOP congressional candidates will need to replicate those gains in this year’s midterms in order to hold onto and potentially flip seats.
One closely watched House race will take place in a majority-Hispanic district that stretches from the Rio Grande Valley to areas east of San Antonio.
Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is running for reelection in the 15th Congressional District against Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star. The district has heavily favored Republicans in recent years, but Democrats are hoping to flip it as Latino voters swing leftward.
“I hear what their concerns are,” De La Cruz told CBS News ahead of last week’s Texas primary when asked about Latino constituents. “I also understand that they don’t want to return to the chaos and the lack of law and order that was happening under the Biden administration,” De La Cruz said. “They asked for a secure border, President Trump has delivered on that secure border, and the next step is to look at enforcement policies that are going to work for all.”
The Texas Republican congresswoman has called for bipartisan solutions on Capitol Hill on immigration, like temporary work visas for construction workers, an industry impacted by immigration arrests within the congressional district.
While the high Latino turnout for Democratic candidates last week could be a problematic sign for Republicans, some caution against drawing too many conclusions from primary results.
“When you look at some of the historical data in Texas from 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2020, the data has shown more Hispanics vote in the Democratic primary, but in the same years during the general election, Republicans still ended up winning statewide races,” said Jorge Martinez, an adviser to the Libre Action Texas organization.
Libre Action is supporting a Trump-endorsed Republican congressional candidate, Eric Flores, who is hoping to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.
Gonzalez represents a border district that was made more favorable to Republicans in last year’s redistricting effort. Latino voters in the region are especially concerned about the state of the economy and immigration enforcement, according to Martinez, who emphasizes the importance of conducting on-the-ground voter outreach.
“Look, if you’re not reaching out to our community, you’re going to lose,” Martinez said. “We’ve seen over the last few election cycles, Republicans making inroads because of gains they made through outreach. We’ve been out there for many years, informing on issues, but you also see Democrats trying to do the same because they’ve realized that they took Hispanics for granted.”
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The data analyses in this story incorporate voter registration lists, as well as county- and precinct-level election results. The precinct results were scraped from a diverse set of 18 counties that account for approximately half of precincts statewide.
Olivia Rinaldi contributed to this report.
