2026年3月20日 / 美国东部时间上午11:46 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
自2月下旬美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击以来，以色列军方已宣布杀死多名伊朗高级官员，从战争第一天的最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊，到周五伊斯兰革命卫队发言人。
以色列表示，这些行动是通过情报驱动的定点打击实施的。
以色列情报与安全领域专家、总部位于以色列的政治分析师格伦·塞格尔（Glen Segell）表示，揭示目标人物位置的情报分为两类：
- 第一类是”你确实有一名实地线人，向你传递信息，告知某人当前的位置”，
- 第二类是某种形式的电子追踪，无论是通过手机、普通电话，甚至卫星或无人机监视。
塞格尔告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻：”如果你关注伊朗局势，当地有很多人互相举报。”
塞格尔还透露，除了线人外，以色列还与合作伙伴合作收集有关伊朗的情报，”包括伊朗的邻国、美国和北约的各种情报来源。你还可以监控其他国家对伊朗的监视活动，例如俄罗斯与伊朗之间的通信。这样就能形成一幅非常全面的伊朗局势图景。”
他补充说，伊朗国内还有”大量”抵抗运动，帮助提供目标人物和设备的下落信息。
伊朗新最高领袖阿亚图拉·穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊（Mojtaba Khamenei）周五在社交媒体上发表声明称”必须剥夺伊斯兰共和国内外敌人的安全保障”，这表明伊朗政权正面临一个问题。
但塞格尔告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，由于地理因素，以色列无法像在其他地区那样在伊朗进行直接情报收集：
“对于以色列这样的小国来说，远距离操作使得它很难像在加沙那样开展情报工作。在加沙，两地相邻，人员往来频繁。所以，我认为以色列实际上正在寻找其他来源，而这些来源非常可靠，而且以色列将伊朗视为一个重大周年纪念（相关目标）。”
其中一个来源是沙特阿拉伯。塞格尔解释道：”沙特阿拉伯可能是收集伊朗局势情报最多的国家，尤其是在伊朗几年前向沙特油田发动无人机袭击之后。”
美国退休上校、战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）国防与安全部高级顾问马克·坎西安（Mark Cancian）告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻：”无论情报如何收集，’大多数针对伊朗官员的行动都是以色列实施的。’”
坎西安指出，要实施这些杀戮，”你必须在某个时刻确切知道[目标]在哪里。你不能在知道他们的位置后三个小时再发动打击，因为他们早就转移了。你必须有一个非常短的所谓’杀伤链’，从你的情报来源报告目标在某个地点，到你实际发动打击的时间，这个过程要非常迅速。”
袭击可能采取”导弹发射、飞机在头顶飞行或类似的形式。但关键是你需要这种快速连接，而以色列在伊朗有实地情报来源，能够做到这一点。”
坎西安表示，以色列单方面实施了大多数针对伊朗官员的定点打击，”因为他们的情报能力要强得多，能够比美国更快地完成’杀伤链’。”
但这也与美国和以色列”划分战场的方式有关，至少在地理上是如此。我们正在执行五角大楼所谓的’南部战线’，基本上是伊朗的沿海地区和东南部。而以色列则负责北部和西部地区。”
美国四星退役将军约瑟夫·沃特尔（Joseph Votel）告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻：”这意味着美国目前重点打击沿海地区的目标，特别是霍尔木兹海峡相关目标。这可能不是以色列最关心的问题…我认为以色列仍然专注于领导层，试图破坏领导层。”
塞格尔认为，以色列专注于消灭伊朗军事和情报领导人，是希望”接替他的人会更理智…你希望继任者会说’让我们谈谈，让我们谈判，让我们进行外交努力，找到解决办法。’而且在很多情况下确实会这样。我的意思是，如果你除掉一个恐怖组织头目，你会发现局势会缓和下来…运动仍然存在，因为它是意识形态驱动的，但接管的人不那么激进。我们在基地组织和伊斯兰国组织（ISIS）身上看到过这种情况，对真主党领导人纳斯鲁拉的打击也是基于同样的意图。”
“这也是除掉阿亚图拉的想法，”塞格尔补充道。在他看来，伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）在德黑兰仍然掌握着大部分权力，”这就是为什么我们看到针对军事领导层、情报官员以及各种涉及弹道导弹发射器的人员的大规模暗杀。伊朗越早认识到这一点，可能就不需要发生革命。你可能会在不改变政权的情况下，让政权对世界的看法发生变化，这对所有人来说都是完全可以接受的。”
然而，其他分析师担心，伊朗被杀的高级官员可能会被经验不足、甚至更不愿谈判的下属取代。
东北大学政治学家马克斯·亚布拉姆斯（Max Abrahms）本周在接受英国《独立报》采访时表示，引用阿富汗、巴基斯坦、以色列和巴勒斯坦地区的历史经验，外国势力进行定点暗杀后，威权政权对平民的暴力往往会升级。
亚布拉姆斯警告：”领导层斩首是有风险的。当你除掉一个倾向于克制、并能影响下属的领导人时，很有可能在他死后，你会看到更极端的战术。”
其他分析师指出，到目前为止，伊朗政权尚未出现裂痕，也没有大规模公开起义推翻政权的迹象。
然而，一些过去的冲突表明，当美国及其西方伙伴严重依赖空中力量时（如2011年北约对利比亚的战争），不受欢迎的政府在持续攻击的累积效应下，局势可能会突然发生变化。
人们还担心，要推翻一个已牢牢控制该国近半个世纪的政权，如果没有明显的新政府准备接管，可能只会造成混乱。
坎西安告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻：”以色列的想法是，如果他们除掉足够多的高级官员，最终继任者将不具备原领导人的合法性和人脉关系，这将迫使他们同意对我们更有利的解决方案，或者甚至可能分裂政权，出现不同派系。到目前为止，这还没有发生，但我认为这是他们的策略。”
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/key-details-on-iran-war-as-conflict-enters-third-week/
As the Iran war rages, Israel continues killing senior Iranian figures. This is how they do it.
March 20, 2026 / 11:46 AM EDT / CBS News
Since the U.S. and Israel launched their strikes on Iran at the end of February, the Israeli military has announced the killings of a number of top Iranian officials, from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, to the spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Friday.
Israel says the operations are carried out through intelligence-driven targeted strikes.
The intelligence that reveals targeted individuals’ locations falls into two different categories, according to Glen Segell, an academic and political analyst based in Israel with a background in operations and information security.
The first category is “where you actually have an informant on the ground who’s passing in information to say this is the person’s current location, and the second one is going to be some form of electronic tracking, whether it is through mobile phones or a regular phone or even satellite or drone surveillance,” Segell said. “If you look at the Iran situation, there are lots of people on the ground who are reporting on each other.”
Segell told CBS News that, in addition to informants, Israel gathers intelligence on Iran in collaboration with partners, “including Iran’s neighbors, including the United States and various NATO sources. You can also monitor other countries’ monitoring of Iran. For example, a communication between Russia and Iran. So it becomes a very, very big picture of what is going on.”
He said there is also “a multitude” of domestic resistance movements inside Iran that help provide information on the whereabouts of targeted people and equipment.
It’s a problem for the Iranian regime that new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei may have alluded to Friday, saying in a statement shared on social media that “security must be taken away from internal and external enemies” of the Islamic Republic.
But Israel is not able to carry out the kind of direct intelligence gathering in Iran that it does in other locations, Segell told CBS News, due to geography.
“The distances involved make it very hard for a small country like Israel to do the type of intelligence that it does in Gaza. In Gaza, it’s neighboring territory and there is a lot of flow of individuals between the two sides. So, I’d say Israel actually is looking for other sources, but the other sources are very, very good, and they also consider Iran as a major, major anniversary.”
One of those other sources, Segell said, is Saudi Arabia.
“Saudi Arabia is probably the largest gatherer of intelligence on what’s happening in Iran, especially after Iran launched the drones against Saudi oil fields a few years ago,” he said.
Regardless of how the intelligence is gathered, “it’s the Israelis who are doing most of that campaign against Iranian officials,” Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. colonel and senior adviser with the CSIS think tank’s Defense and Security Department, told CBS News.
He said to carry out these killings, “you have to know where [the targets] are at a moment in time. You can’t know where they are and then strike them three hours later, because they’ll be gone. You have to have a very short, what they call ‘kill chain,’ from the time that your sources are reporting that your target is at a certain point and the time you can actually strike.”
The attacks can take the form of “a missile launch, it might be an aircraft overhead or something like that. But it’s that quick connection that you need, and the Israelis, in Iran, have sources on the ground and are able to do that.”
Cancian said Israel is carrying out most of the targeted strikes on Iranian officials unilaterally, because “their intelligence is just so much better. They can close this kill chain in a way that [the U.S.] can’t.”
But he said it also has to do with the way the U.S. and Israel have “divided the battlefield, at least geographically. We are doing what the Pentagon calls the ‘southern front,’ which is basically the coast and the southeast part of the country [Iran]. And Israel is doing the north and west part of the country.”
What that means, retired four-star U.S. Army Gen. Joseph Votel told CBS News, is “right now the United States is heavily focused on targets down around the coast, and certainly related to the Straits of Hormuz. That’s probably less of a concern for the Israelis … They continue to be focused, I think, on leadership. Disrupting leadership.”
Segell said that Israeli focus on eliminating Iranian military and intelligence leaders is down to a hope that “the person who replaces him is more sensible … You are hoping that the replacement will basically say, ‘Let’s talk, let’s negotiate, let’s have diplomacy, let’s find a way out of this.’ And in many cases, it does happen. I mean, if you take out a terrorist leader, you’ll find that things become more subdued … The movement is still there, because it is ideological, but the person who is taking over is less radical. We’ve seen this with al-Qaeda. We see this with ISIS. And this was the intention also in terms of taking out Nasrallah in Hezbollah.”
“This was the idea also with taking out the ayatollah,” Segell said, adding that in his view, the IRGC continues to hold much of the power in Tehran, “which is why [we see] these large assassinations against the military leadership, the intelligence officers, the various ones involved in the ballistic missile launchers and so forth. And the sooner the Iranians reach that stage of understanding, you may not need a revolution. You might actually have a change in the regime’s view of the world without the change in their regime, which becomes entirely acceptable to everyone.”
But other analysts have raised concerns that slain senior figures in Iran could instead be replaced by less-experienced, and even less willing to negotiate, subordinates.
Northeastern University political scientist Max Abrahms told Britain’s Independent newspaper this week, citing past experience from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel and the Palestinian territories, that violence against civilians by authoritarian regimes often spikes after targeted killings by foreign powers.
“Leadership decapitation is risky,” he told the newspaper. “When you take out a leader that prefers some degree of restraint and had influence over subordinates, then there’s a very good chance that, upon that person’s death, you’re going to see even more extreme tactics.”
And other analysts note that, so far, there has been no public indication of cracks forming within what’s left of the Iranian regime, nor any sign of a major public uprising to topple it.
Some past conflicts that saw the U.S. and its Western partners rely heavily on airpower, however, such as the NATO war on Libya in 2011, show the situation can change suddenly for unpopular governments under the cumulative effect of relentless attacks.
There are also concerns that toppling a regime that’s been so firmly in control of the country for nearly half a century, with no obvious new administration waiting to take over, could simply create chaos.“
I think the Israelis, their notion is that if they take out enough of the senior officials, that eventually the successors will not have the legitimacy and connections that the original leaders had, and that will either cause them to agree to a more favorable settlement for us, or might even fracture the regime so you have different factions,” Cancian told CBS News. “So far, that has not happened, but I think that’s their strategy.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/key-details-on-iran-war-as-conflict-enters-third-week/
