《新削减战略武器条约》失效，消除了美俄核武库管理的最后法律框架
作者：摩根·菲利普斯
福克斯新闻
发布时间：2026年2月4日 美国东部时间下午3:31
[视频]特朗普斥责普京进行核导弹试验，称其应”结束战争”
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周日猛烈抨击俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京，称这位领导人应在乌克兰问题上寻求和平，而非进行导弹试验。
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一项历史性核军控条约将于周四到期，这将使世界陷入半个多世纪以来未曾面临的核局势——俄罗斯和美国的核武库规模不再受任何有约束力的限制，也没有核查机制来验证莫斯科下一步的行动。
美国科学家联合会核信息项目副主任马特·科达表示，《新削减战略武器条约》（New START）的到期迫使两国重新审视指导其核规划十余年的假设。
科达称：”到目前为止，两国都是在假设对方不会超出核心限制的情况下规划各自的核现代化项目。没有这些核心限制…两国都将重新评估其项目，以适应更加不确定的核未来。”
俄罗斯已于2023年暂停参与《新削减战略武器条约》，冻结了核查和数据交换，但条约的失效消除了管理两国核武库规模的最后法律框架。
由于没有后续协议，美国政府坚称，没有中国的合作就无法实现真正的军备控制。
国务卿马尔科·卢比奥周三表示：”总统过去明确表示，要在21世纪实现真正的军备控制，不包括中国是不可能的，因为其核武库规模庞大且增长迅速。”
白宫一名官员告诉福克斯新闻，唐纳德·特朗普总统将在”自己的时间线”上决定军备控制的前进道路。”特朗普总统多次表示要解决核武器对世界构成的威胁，并表示希望对核武器设限，让中国参与军备控制谈判。”
专家们怀疑，中国在达到与美国同等水平之前不会同意限制其核武库规模，而俄罗斯表示不会迫使中国坐到谈判桌前。
中国计划到2030年拥有1000枚核弹头，但这一数字与冷战时期的核大国相比相形见绌。截至2026年初，全球核力量格局依然失衡，美国和俄罗斯拥有全球约86%的核弹头总量。美俄各拥有约4000枚核弹头，其中约1700枚处于部署状态。全球核武库规模从1986年的7万多枚降至2025年的约1.2万枚。
2023年2月，俄罗斯宣布暂停参与《新削减战略武器条约》，暂停了该条约下的核查和数据共享，但表示将继续遵守数量限制。不过，最近俄罗斯提出将条约延长一年的想法。
科达表示，这一提议反映了双方共同的制约因素，而非俄罗斯意图的突然改变。
“在俄罗斯目前的现代化项目进展不佳、工业产能又被乌克兰战事牵制的情况下，大幅加速军备竞赛不符合俄罗斯的利益。”他说。
科达称，没有核查和数据交换，各国只能依赖自己的情报，这增加了不确定性，并助长了最坏情况的规划。
“没有现场核查，没有数据交换，什么都没有，所有国家实际上只能依靠国家技术手段来监测彼此的核力量。”科达说。
随着《新削减战略武器条约》限制的消失，专家们表示，眼前的担忧不是制造新核武器，而是现有核弹头能以多快速度部署。卡内基国际和平基金会斯坦顿高级研究员安基特·潘达表示，短期内俄罗斯可能比美国行动更快，通过”上传”额外核弹头到现役导弹上实现部署。
潘达解释道：”上传就是在我们的洲际弹道导弹和潜射导弹上加装额外核弹头。俄罗斯可能比美国快得多。”
科达表示，大规模上传不会一夜之间发生，但仍可能在相对较短的时间内改变力量水平。
“我们预计每个国家需要约两年时间和相当大的资金投入才能完成全部力量的上传，”他补充说，在最坏情况下，这可能”大致导致其部署的核武库规模翻倍”。
不过，这一优势受到长期工业现实的制约。潘达指出，美国核武器生产设施已缺乏冷战时期的产能，限制了美国长期维持更大规模核武库的速度。
“美国目前无法生产30个钚弹芯，这只是冷战时期产量的一小部分，”他说。
卡内基国际和平基金会研究员妮可·格雷夫斯基表示，俄罗斯在某些核开发环节的生产速度可能比美国快，但并非所有环节。
“俄罗斯非常擅长核弹头生产，”她告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。”但俄罗斯在运载工具方面存在根本限制。”
格雷夫斯基补充说，随着乌克兰战争持续，情况尤其如此。俄罗斯生产导弹和其他运载系统依赖的设施同时也用于支持战争中的常规武器，限制了莫斯科扩大构成《新削减战略武器条约》核心的洲际导弹、潜射武器和轰炸机的速度。
因此，格雷夫斯基表示，她更担心俄罗斯在传统军控框架外的核系统投资，而非条约覆盖的核力量快速 buildup。
“更令人担忧的是俄罗斯在非对称领域的进展，”她指出，像波塞冬核动力鱼雷和核动力巡航导弹等系统，这些都不在现有条约的管控范围内。
唐纳德·特朗普总统此前曾表示，他希望在俄罗斯和中国参与军备控制之前，先恢复核试验。
特朗普在2025年2月表示：”如果我们需要像我们正在建造的那种核武器，以及俄罗斯和（程度较轻但会拥有的）中国的核武器，那将是非常可悲的一天，可能会导致世界毁灭。”
但在2025年10月，他宣布：”由于其他国家的试验项目，我已指示国防部以同等标准开始测试我们的核武器。这一过程将立即开始。”
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6384137857112
World enters uncharted era as US-Russia nuclear treaty expires, opening door to fastest arms race in decades
New START expiration eliminates last legal framework governing US and Russian nuclear arsenals
By Morgan Phillips
Fox News
Published February 4, 2026 3:31pm EST
[Video]Trump rebukes Putin for nuclear missile test, says he should ‘get the war ended’
President Donald Trump slammed Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, saying the leader should be pursuing peace in Ukraine rather than testing missiles.
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A historic nuclear arms reduction treaty is set to expire Thursday, which will thrust the world into a nuclear situation it has not faced in more than five decades, one in which there are no longer any binding limits on the size of Russia’s or America’s nuclear arsenals and no inspection regime to verify what Moscow does next.
Matt Korda, associate director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said the expiration of the New START treaty forces both countries to rethink assumptions that have guided nuclear planning for more than a decade.
“Up until now, both countries have planned their respective nuclear modernization programs based on the assumption that the other country is not going to exceed those central limits,” Korda said. “Without those central limits … both countries are going to be reassessing their programs to accommodate a more uncertain nuclear future.”
TRUMP WARNS RUSSIA: US HAS WORLD’S GREATEST NUCLEAR SUBMARINE ‘RIGHT OFF THEIR SHORES’
Russia had already suspended its participation in New START in 2023, freezing inspections and data exchanges, but the treaty’s expiration eliminates the last legal framework governing the size of the two countries’ nuclear arsenals.
With no follow-up agreement in place, the administration has insisted it cannot agree to arms control without the cooperation of China.
“The president has been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday.
A White House official told Fox News President Donald Trump will decide the path forward on arms control “on his own timeline.” “President Trump has spoken repeatedly of addressing the threat nuclear weapons pose to the world and indicated that he would like to keep limits on nuclear weapons and involve China in arms control talks.”
Experts are skeptical that China would ever agree to limit its nuclear stockpile until it’s reached parity with the U.S., and Russia has said it would not pressure China to come to the table.
President Donald Trump said he called on President Putin to stop firing on Ukraine during extremely cold weather, and the Russian leader agreed.(Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
China aims to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, but even that figure pales in comparison to the aging giants of the Cold War. As of early 2026, the global nuclear hierarchy remains top-heavy, with the U.S. and Russia holding roughly 86% of the world’s total inventory. Both the U.S. and Russia hold around 4,000 total warheads, with close to 1,700 deployed by each. Global nuclear stockpiles declined to about 12,000 in 2025, down from more than 70,000 in 1986.
In February 2023, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the New START treaty, halting inspections and data-sharing under the pact while saying it would continue to respect the numerical limits. But, more recently, it floated the idea of extending the treaty by another year.
TRUMP STUNS WITH CALL TO RESUME NUCLEAR TESTS — WHY NOW, AND WHAT IT COULD MEAN
Korda said that proposal reflected shared constraints rather than a sudden change in Russian intentions.
“It’s not in Russia’s interest to dramatically accelerate an arms race while its current modernization programs are going so poorly and while its industrial capacity is tied up in Ukraine,” he said.
Korda said that without inspections and data exchanges, countries are forced to rely on their own intelligence, increasing uncertainty and encouraging worst-case planning.
“Without those onsite inspections, without data exchanges, without anything like that, all countries are really left with national technical means of being able to monitor each other’s nuclear forces,” Korda said.
With New START’s limits gone, experts said the immediate concern is not the construction of new nuclear weapons but how quickly existing warheads could be deployed. Ankit Panda, a Stanton senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia could move faster than the United States in the near term by “uploading” additional warheads onto missiles already in service.
“Uploading would be a process of adding additional warheads to our ICBMs and submarine-launched missiles,” Panda said. “The Russians could be much faster than the United States.”
The U.S. and Russia hold around 4,000 total warheads.(U.S. Air Force/Senior Airman Ian Dudley/Handout via Reuters)
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Korda said a large-scale upload would not happen overnight but could still alter force levels within a relatively short window.
“We’re looking at maybe a timeline of about two years and pretty significant sums of money for each country to execute a complete upload across the entire force,” he said, adding that, in a worst-case scenario, it could “roughly result in doubling the sizes of their deployed nuclear arsenals.”
That advantage, however, is constrained by longer-term industrial realities. Panda noted that the U.S. nuclear weapons complex lacks the production capacity it once had, limiting how quickly Washington could sustain a larger arsenal over time.
“The United States is currently unable to produce what is going to be a target for 30 plutonium pits,” a fraction of Cold War output, he said.
Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia’s ability to produce nuclear weapons may be faster than the U.S. in some, but not all, parts of the development chain.
“Russia is very good at warhead production,” she told Fox News Digital. “What Russia is really fundamentally constrained on is the delivery vehicle side of it.”
Grajewski added that this is particularly true as the war in Ukraine continues. Russia’s production of missiles and other delivery systems relies on facilities that also support conventional weapons used in the war, limiting how quickly Moscow could expand the intercontinental missiles, submarine-launched weapons and bombers that made up the core of New START.
The New START Treaty, which limits the U.S. and Russia’s nuclear warheads, expires Thursday.(Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)
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As a result, Grajewski said she is less concerned about a rapid buildup of those treaty-covered forces than about Moscow’s continued investment in nuclear systems that fall outside traditional arms control frameworks.
“What is more concerning is Russia’s advances in asymmetric domains,” she said, pointing to systems such as the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo and nuclear-powered cruise missiles, which are not covered by existing treaties.
President Donald Trump has previously said he wants to pursue arms control with both Russia and China before suggesting the U.S. should resume nuclear testing.
“If there’s ever a time when we need nuclear weapons like the kind of weapons that we’re building and that Russia has — and that China has, to a lesser extent, but will have — that’s going to be a very sad day,” Trump said in February 2025. “That’s going to be probably oblivion.”
But, in October, he declared, “Because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6384137857112