[政治] 4分钟阅读
MAGA称《保护美国法案》至关重要。新民调显示美国人并不认同
分析：
[Aaron Blake]
3小时前发布于2026年3月21日美国东部时间上午8:00
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在弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿的一个投票站，选民于2025年11月4日投票。
要听一些知名的MAGA（支持特朗普的民粹主义团体）人士说，关于“《保护美国法案》”（SAVE America Act）的马拉松式参议院辩论——现已持续到周末——对共和党而言是一场生死存亡的较量。
他们称，如果参议员们无法通过这项法案，共和党将再也无法赢得选举。如果该法案未被签署成为法律，他们表示，共和党选民将在2026年中期选举中待在家中。
这一切听起来都相当末日化，尤其是考虑到这项立法处理的是一个据称存在的问题（非公民投票），而实际上对此几乎没有证据支持。
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但随着共和党内部的这种狂热情绪升温，且唐纳德·特朗普总统向参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩施压，要求其想尽一切办法通过这项立法，我们几乎没有相关民调数据。
不过现在我们有了。结果显示，这一切似乎只是一场党内小圈子的内部讨论现象。
尽管活动人士和一些共和党议员感到迫切需要通过这项法案，但这种紧迫感并未在其他群体中体现。美国人，甚至许多共和党人，对整个事件似乎都相当“无所谓”。
民调结果显示，共和党内部一些人正敦促党内领导人废除冗长辩论规则（filibuster）或尝试其他方法绕过障碍以通过该法案，而该法案在参议院并不具备所需的60票。
该法案的支持者常常指出，美国人压倒性地支持要求人们投票时出示身份证件。新的[哥伦比亚广播公司新闻-尤戈夫民调]显示，80%的人支持这一点。
然而，《保护美国法案》的核心实际上有所不同：它要求人们在登记投票时提供公民身份证明。同样，对这一点的支持率也相当高，达到66%——大约三分之二的美国人。
但当民调问及该法案本身（前身为SAVE法案）时，支持率却远低于这些数字。事实上，只有28%的人表示支持，而31%的人表示反对。
即便在共和党内部，也只有60%的人表示支持该立法。另有6%表示反对，34%的人表示不确定。
很多人不确定的一个可能原因是：他们对此了解不多。尽管华盛顿特区、社交媒体和保守派媒体都对该法案高度关注，但只有16%的共和党人表示对《保护美国法案》非常了解。另有33%的共和党人表示大致知道它的内容，包括一些细节。其余约一半的人表示他们并不真正了解任何具体内容。
共和党人面临的另一个问题是，这项立法并不像防止非公民投票那么简单。正如[我最近写道的]，其另一面是，它可能会使实际公民更难合法投票。（事实上，有大量证据和近期历史表明后者更为严重。）
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所以这实际上是一种平衡行为。
而这种平衡行为在公众舆论层面并不倾向于共和党。
民调显示，42%的美国人认为非资格投票是“主要问题”。但同样比例的人——44%——表示防止合格公民投票也是一个“主要问题”。
调查发现，总体而言，43%的人认为公民身份要求主要会阻止非法非公民投票。但其余57%的人认为它要么主要会阻止合法公民投票（29%），要么会同等程度地阻止两者（28%）。
这些数字都不表明非公民投票被视为一个巨大问题。
而且，这一点甚至在许多共和党人身上也成立。
当调查问及非公民投票的频繁程度时，49%的共和党人表示“经常”发生。但另外51%的人表示“有时”或更少发生。
在更广泛的人群中，只有23%的人认为非公民投票“经常”发生。
考虑到这些数字，图恩和其他参议院共和党人不一定觉得有必要全力以赴——比如废除冗长辩论规则，这可能会带来超出此问题范围的深远影响——以通过这项立法。
看来这种狂热情绪主要局限于右翼最热情的政治群体。
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Analysis by
[Aaron Blake]
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Mar 21, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
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Voters cast their ballots at a polling station on November 4, 2025 in Arlington, Virginia.
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To hear some prominent MAGA voices tell it, the marathon Senate debate over [the “SAVE America Act”] — which has now stretched into the weekend — is an existential one for the Republican Party.
If senators don’t figure out a way to pass this bill, they say, Republicans won’t be able to win elections anymore. If the bill isn’t signed into law, they say, GOP voters will just stay home in the 2026 midterm elections.
It’s all rather apocalyptic, especially given the legislation deals with a purported problem (noncitizen voting) for which there is [precious little actual evidence].
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But as this fever has built in the GOP and President Donald Trump has put pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune to find a way — any way — to pass this legislation, we’ve had very little in the way of polling.
Well, now we do. And it turns out all this appears to be a rather inside-baseball phenomenon.
While activists and some GOP lawmakers feel urgency to pass this bill, that urgency does not translate elsewhere. Americans and even many Republicans seem pretty meh on the whole thing.
The poll comes as some in the GOP press their party’s leaders to scrap the filibuster or attempt some other kind of workaround to pass the bill, which doesn’t have the required 60 votes in the Senate.
Supporters of the bill will often point to how Americans overwhelmingly support requiring people to show ID to vote. And the new [CBS News-YouGov poll] shows 80% support that.
The crux of the “SAVE America Act” is actually different, though; it’s requiring people to provide proof of citizenship to register to vote. Again, support for that is quite strong, at 66% — roughly two-thirds of Americans.
But when the poll asked about the actual piece of legislation, formerly known as the SAVE Act, support wasn’t anywhere close to those numbers. In fact, just 28% supported it, while 31% opposed it.
Even inside the GOP, just 60% said they supported the legislation. Another 6% opposed it, while 34% said they weren’t sure.
A likely reason so many aren’t sure? They just don’t know much about it. Despite all the focus on the legislation in Washington, DC, and on social media and in conservative media, just 16% of Republicans said they knew a lot about the SAVE America Act. Another 33% of Republicans said they generally knew what it’s about, including some specifics. The rest — about half — said they don’t really know any specifics.
The other problem for Republicans is that this legislation isn’t as simple as preventing noncitizens from voting. As [I wrote recently], the flipside is that it could make it more difficult for actual citizens to legally vote. (In fact, there’s plenty of evidence and recent history to suggest the latter looms larger.)
Attendees hold signs advocating for voting rights and against the SAVE America Act outside the U.S. Capitol on March 18, 2026.
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So really, it’s a balancing act.
And that balancing act doesn’t tilt in the GOP’s favor, at least in the court of public opinion.
The poll shows 42% of Americans regard ineligible voting as a “major problem.” But about the same amount — 44% — say preventing eligible citizens from voting is also a “major problem.”
The survey finds 43% overall say the citizenship requirement would mostly prevent illegal noncitizen voting. But the rest — 57% — say it would either mostly prevent legal citizens from voting (29%) or would prevent both about equally (28%).
None of those numbers suggest noncitizen voting is viewed as a huge problem.
And that appears to hold true even for many Republicans.
When the survey asked how frequent noncitizen voting is, 49% of Republicans said it happened “a lot.” But the other 51% said it only happened “sometimes” or less.
Among the broader population, just 23% thought noncitizen voting happened “a lot.”
Given those numbers, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Thune and other Senate Republicans don’t necessarily feel the need to pull out all the stops — things like nixing the filibuster, which could have far-reaching implications beyond this issue — in order to pass this legislation.
It appears this fever is largely contained to the most passionate of political types on the right.
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