2026年3月2日 / 美国东部时间上午7:44 / 法新社
被称为厄尔尼诺的天气现象可能在今年晚些时候形成，有可能将全球气温推向历史新高。
根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的数据，今年7月至9月及之后期间，厄尔尼诺现象形成的概率为50%至60%。
世界气象组织将于周二发布关于厄尔尼诺的最新更新。
以下是你需要了解的关于厄尔尼诺及其”冷姐妹”拉尼娜的信息：
厄尔尼诺是如何得名的？
厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜是热带太平洋地区一种自然气候模式的两个阶段，即厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）。
19世纪，秘鲁和厄瓜多尔的渔民创造了”厄尔尼诺”（El Nino，意为”男孩”或”圣婴”）一词，用以描述圣诞节前沿海岸出现的异常温暖洋流，这导致他们的渔获量减少。
科学家将拉尼娜（La Nina）命名为厄尔尼诺的相反现象。在这两种现象之间，还存在一个”中性”阶段。
厄尔尼诺如何产生增温效应？
厄尔尼诺会削弱横跨热带太平洋自东向西吹拂的信风，通过影响温暖海水在广阔海洋中的流动来影响天气。
这种削弱会使海洋通常较冷的中东部变暖，改变赤道太平洋地区的降雨和全球风型。
太平洋表面的额外热量会向大气释放能量，可能暂时推高全球气温，这就是为什么厄尔尼诺年份往往是有记录以来最热的年份之一。
厄尔尼诺现象大约每2至7年发生一次。
它通常导致东南亚、澳大利亚、非洲南部和巴西北部的气候更干燥，而非洲之角、美国南部、秘鲁和厄瓜多尔的气候更湿润。
新的记录即将出现？
上一次厄尔尼诺现象发生在2023-2024年，导致2023年成为有记录以来第二热的年份，2024年成为历史最高温。
欧盟哥白尼气候变化服务局主任卡洛·邦滕波在今年1月告诉法新社，如果今年出现厄尔尼诺现象，2026年可能成为”又一个破纪录的年份”。
爱尔兰国家气象局气候科学家蒂多·森姆勒表示，如果厄尔尼诺现象在今年下半年形成，其影响在2027年将比2026年更大。
他说：”全球大气对厄尔尼诺现象的反应需要时间。”
“尽管如此，由于全球变暖趋势，即使没有厄尔尼诺现象，2026年也有成为有记录以来最热年份的风险，”森姆勒告诉法新社。
“如果厄尔尼诺现象在2026年下半年形成，2027年出现创纪录高温年份的风险将增加，”他补充道。
那拉尼娜呢？
最新的拉尼娜现象相对较弱且持续时间较短，始于2024年12月，预计在2月至4月期间进入中性阶段。
拉尼娜现象会使东太平洋海水在约1至3年内变冷，对全球天气产生与厄尔尼诺相反的影响。
它会导致澳大利亚、东南亚、印度、非洲东南部和巴西北部部分地区降雨增多，而南美洲部分地区则变得更加干燥。
拉尼娜现象并未阻止2025年成为有记录以来第三热的年份。
NOAA新的判定方法
NOAA采用了一种新方法来确定厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件。
旧的海洋尼诺指数（ONI）将太平洋某一区域的三个月平均海面温度与该区域30年的平均温度进行比较。
但由于海洋正在迅速变暖，旧的30年平均值可能已经过时。
新方法是相对海洋尼诺指数（RONI），它比较中东部太平洋与热带其他地区的温度高低。
NOAA表示，RONI是”一种更清晰、更可靠的实时追踪厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象的方法”。
El Nino could return this year and make Earth even hotter. What you need to know.
March 2, 2026 / 7:44 AM EST / AFP
The weather phenomenon known as El Nino could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights.
There’s a 50- to 60-percent chance of El Nino developing during the July-September period and beyond, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The World Meteorological Organization will issue an update on El Nino on Tuesday.
Here’s what you need to know about El Nino and its cooler sister, La Nina:
How was El Nino named?
El Nino and La Nina are two phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Peruvian and Ecuadoran fishermen coined the term El Nino (“the boy” or “the Christ Child”) in the 19th century for the arrival of an unusually warm ocean current off the coast that reduced their catch just before Christmas.
Scientists chose the name La Nina as the opposite of El Nino. Between the two events, there is a “neutral” phase.
How does El Nino produce its warming effect?
El Nino can weaken consistent trade winds that blow east-to-west across the tropical Pacific, influencing weather by affecting the movement of warm water across the vast ocean.
This weakening warms the usually cooler central and eastern sides of the ocean, altering rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and wind patterns around the world.
The extra heat at the surface of the Pacific releases energy into the atmosphere that can temporarily drive up global temperatures, which is why El Nino years are often among the warmest on record.
El Nino occurs every two to seven years.
It typically results in drier conditions across southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, and northern Brazil, and wetter conditions in the Horn of Africa, the southern United States, Peru and Ecuador.
New records ahead?
The last El Nino occurred in 2023-2024 and contributed to making 2023 the second highest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, told AFP in January that 2026 could be “another record-breaking year” if El Nino appears this year.
However, El Nino’s impact would be higher in 2027 than in 2026 if it develops in the second half of this year, said Tido Semmler, a climate scientist at Ireland’s National Meteorological Service.
“It takes time for the global atmosphere to react to the El Nino,” he said.
“Having said this, there is a risk of 2026 being the warmest year on record even without El Nino, due to the global warming trend,” Semmler told AFP.
“2027 would face an increased risk of getting a record warm year if El Nino developed in the second half of 2026,” he added.
What about La Nina?
The latest La Nina episode was relatively weak and short lived, starting in December 2024 and due to enter a neutral phase during the Februady-April period.
La Nina cools the eastern Pacific Ocean for a period of about one to three years, generating the opposite effects to El Nino on global weather.
It leads to wetter conditions in parts of Australia, southeast Asia, India, southeast Africa and northern Brazil, while causing drier conditions in parts of South America.
La Nina did not stop 2025 from being the third hottest on record.
New NOAA determination formula
NOAA has adopted a new way of determining El Nino and La Nina events.
The old Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) compared the three-month average sea surface temperature in one region of the Pacific with a 30-year average in the same area.
But as the oceans have been warming rapidly, that old 30-year average can be out of date.
The new method, the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), compares how warm or cool the east-central Pacific is compared to the rest of the tropics.
NOAA says RONI is a “clearer, more reliable way” to track El Nino and La Nina in real time.