2026-03-30T18:15:46.647Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：卡拉·斯坎内尔
更新于2026年3月30日，美国东部时间下午2:30
发布于2026年3月30日，美国东部时间下午2:15
J·戴维·艾克/盖蒂图片社
投资 联邦机构
多名消息人士告诉CNN，曼哈顿联邦检察官正在调查某些在预测市场上下注的高回报交易是否违反了内幕交易及其他法律。
据知情人士透露，美国纽约南区检察官办公室证券与商品欺诈部门的负责人近日会见了领先预测市场平台之一Polymarket的代表，讨论如何将现行法律应用于这个快速增长行业中可能存在的不当行为。
美国司法部将关注引发广泛关注的高回报下注，这是对该行业的一次升级打击。过去一年，该行业经历了爆炸式增长，基本不受联邦监管机构的约束。一名消息人士称，检察官正在调查多笔高回报交易，其中包括针对委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗被捕时间的下注。
相关报道 去中心化预测市场平台Polymarket的标识显示在智能手机屏幕上，手机背景为活跃下注列表。塞缪尔·布瓦万/努法托/美联社 独家：交易员凭借精准押注伊朗事件在Polymarket获利近百万美元 阅读时长5分钟
“一般而言，我们办公室会与市场参与者会面，讨论市场活动和法律适用问题，”美国检察官办公室发言人尼古拉斯·比亚斯在给CNN的一份声明中表示。
“对于所谓的‘预测市场’，我们已经明确表示，包括内幕交易法、反洗钱法、禁止操纵市场的法律以及各类反欺诈法在内的多项法律，都适用于我们观察到的广泛活动，”比亚斯说道。
目前尚无任何公司被指控存在不当行为。
Polymarket拒绝就具体交易或其与执法部门的会面置评。
“Polymarket制定、维护并执行最高标准的市场诚信准则。我们还主动与监管机构和执法部门合作，强化这些标准，”Polymarket发言人卡里萨·费尔格告诉CNN。
此次会面数周前，美国纽约南区检察官杰伊·克莱顿在一场证券法会议上向该行业发出了警告，称他认为将会出现涉及预测市场活动的刑事案件。
“仅仅因为是预测市场，并不意味着你就能免受欺诈指控，”克莱顿说道。
联邦检察官关注度提升之际，这个快速增长行业的部分参与者正竞相制定和更新自身规则，并对可疑交易展开调查。下注范围扩展至选举和体育赛事，也造成了州级与联邦当局之间的冲突。
近期针对伊朗战争爆发时间、马杜罗被捕以及热门电视剧结局的高回报下注，重新引发了人们的疑问：下注者究竟是运气好，还是拥有内幕消息。
包括Polymarket和Kalshi在内的预测市场，在部分领域被视为精准的选举结果预测工具，越来越多地被研究人员和投资者用作有价值的参考数据。
批评人士警告称，这些平台大多是自我监管，极易受到市场操纵。而对于Polymarket来说，其获得美国批准的网站目前尚未完全投入运营，这意味着其最具争议的委内瑞拉和伊朗相关市场正通过其离岸平台提供服务，不受美国联邦法规的约束。
预测市场允许用户对事件结果下注“是”或“否”。若要在美国境内提供产品，运营商需在美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）注册为指定合约市场，有义务执行规则并接受CFTC的监督。
迄今为止，尚未有针对预测市场交易的联邦刑事起诉或CFTC民事案件提起。
“我认为这会很困难。如果法律模糊不清，你就无法对某人提起刑事诉讼，”艾坦·戈尔曼说道，他是一名刑事辩护律师，曾担任CFTC执法总监。
“检察官不仅需要证明某人在掌握重大非公开信息的情况下进行交易，还需要证明其违反了某种受托责任或信任义务。但所有这些都尚未经过司法检验，”戈尔曼补充道。
在美国境外市场进行的交易，也给联邦起诉增加了难度。
卡拉·斯威舍就CNN独家报道评论：交易员凭借精准押注伊朗事件在Polymarket获利近百万美元
6:34 • 消息来源：CNN
卡拉·斯威舍就CNN独家报道评论：交易员凭借精准押注伊朗事件在Polymarket获利近百万美元
6:34
这一系列时机精准的下注，促使两党多名议员提出法案以明确规则，其中包括禁止议员和联邦官员就政治事件或政策决策下注，并禁止在这些平台上进行体育博彩。上周，加利福尼亚州民主党州长加文·纽森发布行政令，禁止州政府官员利用内幕消息在本州的预测市场下注。
州级监管机构也正加大力度打击选举和体育赛事下注。
亚利桑那州近日对Kalshi提起了首起刑事指控，称其经营非法博彩业务并参与选举下注。Kalshi否认存在不当行为，并称这项轻罪指控“站不住脚”。此外，还有多起针对预测网站的民事诉讼，得到两党多名州检察长的支持。
特朗普政府时期的CFTC曾表态将采取更宽松的监管方式，强调市场的自我监管属性。
行业聚焦内幕交易
随着检察官将目光转向该市场，大型平台正竞相采取措施缓解人们对其失控的担忧。
上周，Polymarket发布新规，禁止基于机密信息或违反信任义务的交易。同一天，Kalshi宣布新规则，禁止政客就自己参与的竞选活动下注，以及运动员在自己所在联赛中下注。
不过，这两家竞争平台之间也存在关键差异。Kalshi的规则长期以来一直禁止内幕交易，且该平台近期支持国会提出的多项禁止联邦官员从事此类交易的提案。
（CNN与Kalshi存在合作关系，使用其数据报道重大事件，但编辑人员被禁止参与预测市场交易。）
Kalshi执法主管罗伯特·德诺在X平台上表示，该公司正在调查与热门电视剧相关的可疑交易。
“《异形》《幸存者》和《单身女郎》相关市场——我们正在对所有这些进行调查，目前尚未发现内幕交易或市场操纵的有力证据。不过，这些市场尚未关闭，我们的监控和分析仍在继续，”德诺在X平台上写道。
相关视频 新法案旨在禁止议员参与预测市场 时长1:03
Kalshi表示，过去一年里，该公司已向执法部门移交了十余起案件。
去年5月，Kalshi发现一名政治候选人就自己的参选资格下注，对其处以罚款并禁止其参与该市场五年。数月后，Kalshi基于“合理理由”认定一名交易员“很可能掌握与其交易相关的重大非公开信息”，对其处以罚款并禁止交易。
CFTC曾提及Kalshi的这些行动，但未对两起案件提起民事诉讼。
“CFTC注册交易所必须监控市场操纵、欺诈和内幕交易行为。我们一直在与各交易所合作，进一步强化监控能力，”CFTC发言人告诉CNN。
Polymarket曾于2022年支付140万美元与CFTC达成和解，原因是其在美国境内作为未注册交易所运营。拜登政府时期的司法部曾就此展开刑事调查，但去年在未提起任何指控的情况下结案。Polymarket于2025年7月在CFTC注册，获得联邦监管批准。其面向美国用户的网站目前尚未对大多数客户开放，该网站将必须遵守CFTC的规则。
在拜登政府时期，CFTC曾表示Kalshi平台上的选举相关下注属于非法行为。Kalshi就此向法院提起诉讼并胜诉，为该平台上2024年选举相关合法下注的爆发式增长铺平了道路。去年5月，特朗普政府时期的CFTC撤回了对此案的上诉。
今年8月，在风险投资公司1789向Polymarket注入一笔未披露金额的资金后，小唐纳德·特朗普加入了该公司的顾问委员会。他同时也是Kalshi的顾问。特朗普的发言人此前告诉CNN，他不会在任何预测平台上交易，也不会就这些公司与联邦政府官员进行接触。
特朗普政府时期的CFTC曾支持旨在推动预测市场扩张的监管政策。
CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格上周宣布成立专项工作组，推动制定规则，“以促进美国本土的创新，确保美国参与者不会被排除在外”。
Exclusive: Federal prosecutors are exploring whether prediction market bets trip insider trading laws
2026-03-30T18:15:46.647Z / CNN
By Kara Scannell
Updated Mar 30, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
PUBLISHED Mar 30, 2026, 2:15 PM ET
A sign marks the location of the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) headquarters building on April 30, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Photo by J. David Ake/Getty Images)
J. David Ake/Getty Images
Investing Federal agencies
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are exploring whether certain lucrative bets placed on prediction markets have violated insider trading and other laws, multiple sources told CNN.
The chiefs of the securities and commodities fraud unit of the US attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York recently met with representatives of Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms, to discuss how existing laws could be applied to potential misconduct in the fast-growing industry, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Justice Department’s focus on headline-grabbing profitable bets is an escalation against an industry that recently saw an explosion of growth in the past year, largely uninhibited by federal regulators. Prosecutors are investigating lucrative trades, including the timing of the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, one source said.
Related article The logo of the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket displays on the screen of a smartphone placed in front of a background showing a list of active bets. Samuel Boivin/NURPHO/AP Exclusive: Trader made nearly $1 million on Polymarket with remarkably accurate Iran bets 5 min read
“As a general matter, our Office meets with market participants to discuss market activity and application of the law,” Nicholas Biase, a spokesman for the US attorney’s office, said in a statement to CNN.
“With regard to so-called ‘prediction markets,’ our Office has made clear that various laws, including insider trading laws, anti-money laundering laws, laws prohibiting manipulation, and various anti-fraud laws are applicable to a wide range of observed activity,” Biase said.
No companies have been accused of wrongdoing.
Polymarket declined to comment about specific trades or its meeting with law enforcement.
“Polymarket sets, maintains, and enforces the highest standards of market integrity. We also proactively work with regulators and law enforcement to reinforce those standards,” said Carissa Felger, a spokesperson for Polymarket, told CNN.
The meeting comes several weeks after Jay Clayton, the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, sent a warning shot through the industry when he said at a securities law conference that he believed there would be criminal cases involving prediction market activity.
“Because it’s a prediction market doesn’t insulate you from fraud,” Clayton said.
The increased attention by federal prosecutors comes as some players in the fast-growing industry are rushing to write and update their own rules and open investigations into suspicious activity. The expansion of bets into elections and sports is also creating a clash between state and federal authorities.
Recent lucrative bets on the timing of the war with Iran, the capture of Maduro and the outcomes of popular television series have raised fresh questions over whether bettors were lucky or if they had inside information.
Prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, have been heralded in some corners as accurate forecasters of election outcomes and are increasingly incorporated by researchers and investors as valuable data points.
Critics caution they are mostly self-policed platforms that are ripe for market manipulation. And for Polymarket in particular, its US-approved site is not fully operational yet, which means its most controversial markets about Venezuela and Iran are being offered on its offshore site, unencumbered by US federal regulations.
Prediction markets allow for yes or no bets on outcomes. To offer products in the US, the operators need to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as designated contract markets, which are obligated to enforce rules, and abide by CFTC oversight.
To date there haven’t been any federal criminal prosecutions or CFTC civil cases brought against trade in prediction markets.
“I think it will be difficult. You can’t criminally prosecute someone if the law is vague,” said Aitan Goelman, a criminal defense lawyer who previously served as the director of enforcement at the CFTC.
“Prosecutors would have to show not only that someone was trading in possession of material nonpublic information, but they were doing it in violation of some kind of fiduciary duty or duty of trust. But all this is untested,” Goelman added.
Trades that took place on marketplaces outside of US also make it more challenging for federal prosecutions.
Kara Swisher weighs in on CNN’s exclusive reporting that a trader made nearly $1M on Polymarket with accurate Iran bets
6:34 • Source: CNN
Kara Swisher weighs in on CNN’s exclusive reporting that a trader made nearly $1M on Polymarket with accurate Iran bets
6:34
The series of well-timed bets has led some lawmakers from both parties to introduce bills to clarify the rules, including banning lawmakers and federal officials from trading on political events or policy decisions, and outlawing sports betting on the platforms. Last week, California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an executive order to ban state government officials from using insider knowledge on prediction markets in the state.
State regulators are also becoming more aggressive to crack down on bets in election and sports.
Arizona recently filed the first criminal charges against Kalshi, allegedly it is operating an illegal gambling business and engaging in election wagering. Kalshi denies wrongdoing and called the misdemeanor charges “paper thin.” There are also dozens of civil lawsuits against prediction sites, with support from a bipartisan array of state attorneys general.
The CFTC under the Trump administration has signaled a more hands-off approach emphasizing the self-policing nature of the market.
Industry focus on insider trading
As prosecutors’ focus turns to the market, the big players are rushing to take steps to tamp down concerns that they are out of control.
Last week, Polymarket issued rules placing bans on trades based on confidential information or in violation of a duty of trust or confidence. The same day, Kalshi announced new rules to block politicians from trading on their own campaigns and athletes from trading in their own leagues.
However, there are also key differences between the two rival platforms. Kalshi’s rules have long banned insider trading, and it has recently endorsed some of the congressional proposals to ban the practice among federal officials.
(CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, but editorial employees are prohibited from participating in prediction markets.)
Robert DeNault, the head of enforcement for Kalshi, said on X that it is investigating suspicious trades based on popular television series.
“Aliens, Survivor, and Bachelorette markets – we’re investigating all of them, and so far, we have not found compelling evidence of insider trading or market manipulation. However, these markets are not closed and our monitoring and analysis continues,” Denault wrote on X.
Related video MS New bill aims to ban lawmakers from prediction markets 1:03
Kalshi said in the past year it has referred over a dozen cases to law enforcement.
Last May, Kalshi fined and issued a five-year ban from its market when it discovered a political candidate was trading on his own candidacy. A few months later Kalshi fined and banned a trader based on “reasonable belief” that the person “likely had access to material nonpublic information related to his trades.”
The CFTC highlighted Kalshi’s actions, but did not bring civil charges in either case.
“CFTC-registered exchanges are required to monitor for manipulation, fraud, and insider trading. We’re consistently working with our exchanges to make surveillance capabilities even stronger,” a spokesperson for the CFTC told CNN.
Polymarket paid $1.4 million to settle with the CFTC in 2022 for operating as an unregistered exchange in the US. A criminal investigation was later opened by the Biden-era Justice Department, but it was closed last year without any charges. Polymarket gained federal regulatory approval in July 2025 when it registered with the CFTC. Its US-facing site, which isn’t available yet to most customers, will be required to comply with the CFTC’s rules.
Under the Biden administration, the CFTC said election-related bets on Kalshi were unlawful. Kalshi challenged the case in court and won, paving the way for an explosion of legal 2024 election-related betting on the site. Last May, under the Trump administration, the CFTC dropped its appeal of the case.
In August, Donald Trump Jr. joined the advisory board of Polymarket after venture capital firm 1789 invested an undisclosed amount of money into the company. He is also an adviser to Kalshi. Trump Jr.’s spokesman previously told CNN he doesn’t trade on any prediction platforms and doesn’t interact with federal government officials about these companies.
The CFTC under the Trump administration has championed oversight that bolsters an expansion of prediction markets.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig last week announced a task force to advance rules that “fosters innovation at home and ensure American participants are not left on the sidelines.”
