2026-03-31T06:04:14.187Z / reuters.com
- 摘要
- 欧尔班面临2010年以来最严峻的选举挑战，民调中落后于蒂萨党
- 马雅尔的竞选聚焦腐败、低工资和食品价格上涨
- 特朗普的支持被认为不太可能影响这场由国内议题主导的选举
布达佩斯3月31日路透电——美国保守派长期以来将匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班视为例证，证明西方领导人可以打击移民、违抗全球机构、向“觉醒”自由主义开战，同时仍能赢得选举。
但随着匈牙利即将于4月12日举行议会选举，欧尔班在美国最热情的支持者之一、前总统唐纳德·特朗普正面临一个曾难以想象的局面：这位执掌政权16年的欧洲“非自由民主”旗手可能会被投票赶下台。
《路透社伊朗简报》新闻通讯将为您带来伊朗局势的最新动态与分析，点击此处订阅。
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欧尔班若败选，其影响将远超匈牙利国界，令人们对一种以强硬民族主义和民主制衡削弱为特征的政治体系的持久性产生质疑——美国右翼部分人士曾将该体系吹捧为重塑西方民主的蓝图。与此同时，欧洲部分极右翼政党的发展势头似乎正在放缓，而特朗普的不受欢迎度越来越被视为欧洲选民眼中的负面因素。
民调显示，欧尔班及其青年民主主义者联盟（Fidesz）正面临2010年重新掌权以来最严峻的选举挑战。在多数独立民调中，他们落后于由彼得·马雅尔领导的中右翼蒂萨党。
现年45岁的马雅尔走访了数百个城镇和乡村，他经常在一辆涂有匈牙利国旗色彩的平板卡车上发表演讲，这辆卡车已成为其竞选活动的标志性符号。
尽管他誓言要打击腐败和民主倒退，并将二者归咎于欧尔班的长期执政，但马雅尔的集会主要聚焦民生议题，如低工资、食品价格上涨和公共服务恶化。身为律师和欧洲议会议员的马雅尔获得了年轻选民的大力支持，其支持者将他的迅速崛起归功于严谨的信息传递和精致的社交媒体运营。
现年62岁的欧尔班将马雅尔描述为一个冒险的选择，称其将向欧盟屈服，并将匈牙利拖入乌克兰战争。欧尔班与俄罗斯保持密切联系，反对援助乌克兰。在布达佩斯各地，支持欧尔班的竞选海报强化了这一信息，将青年民主主义者联盟打上“安全选择”的标签。
五位政治分析师表示，即便华盛顿提供高调支持——包括特朗普的背书以及副总统J·D·万斯计划于4月7日至8日的访问——也不太可能改变选举结果，因为生活成本等国内议题主导了此次选举。
特朗普曾称赞欧尔班是“真正强大且有影响力的领导人”，布达佩斯举办的多场会议吸引了美国各地的保守派人士前来学习他的政治策略。
欧尔班自称的“非自由民主”与特朗普时代美国的核心主题一脉相承：严苛的反移民政策、公开蔑视自由主义规范、敌视全球机构，以及攻击媒体、大学和非营利组织。他是2016年美国总统竞选期间首位背书特朗普的欧洲领导人。
在奥巴马政府时期，华盛顿多次警告欧尔班政府正在侵蚀民主规范，包括司法独立、媒体和宗教自由，但在特朗普开始首届任期后，此类批评基本销声匿迹。
自那以后，随着特朗普与欧洲大部分国家的关系趋于紧张，欧尔班治下的匈牙利与他的关系愈发密切，包括加入他发起的“和平委员会”——一项挑战联合国传统角色的倡议。
欧尔班赢得美国右翼支持者青睐的另一个特质是他敢于对抗欧盟。他多次违抗欧盟，最显著的是反对乌克兰的入盟申请，并与俄罗斯保持密切联系。其对手马雅尔则誓言将匈牙利与俄罗斯拉开距离，重新将国家锚定在西方阵营。
欧尔班的发言人未回应置评请求。马雅尔在接受路透社此前采访时表示，选民必须在欧洲与发展，或是继续“16年的衰落”之间做出选择。
背书但无资金支持
特朗普在其Truth Social平台上称赞欧尔班帮助美国与匈牙利达成“合作的新高度和惊人成就”。白宫发言人奥利维亚·威尔士在给路透社的电子邮件中称，特朗普将欧尔班视为“亲密伙伴、受尊敬的领导人，以及匈牙利人民的赢家——美国的伟大盟友”。
但特朗普政府并未向欧尔班提供向另一位盟友——阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱——提供的那种经济支持。去年，美国向阿根廷提供了数十亿美元的支持计划，以帮助稳定其货币，并在中期选举前为米莱提供助力。
去年11月在白宫与特朗普会面后，欧尔班称他已与美国达成一项“金融护盾”协议，以保护匈牙利经济。但特朗普后来否认曾向欧尔班提供此类援助。美国国务卿马可·卢比奥在2月16日访问布达佩斯期间，仅模糊承诺“若匈牙利经济陷入困境，将寻找提供援助的方式”。
“我们正触及美国愿意真正提供援助的上限，”位于柏林的政治分析师祖扎娜·韦格说道，她在美国华盛顿特区的智库德国马歇尔基金会专注于中东欧问题研究。
“这可能表明人们对欧尔班能否真正获胜存在不确定性。特朗普可能不想被视为支持失败者，”她说道。
白宫发言人未回应置评请求。
匈牙利2022年的上次大选由欧尔班以压倒性优势获胜，但总部位于维也纳的区域安全组织欧洲安全与合作组织的选举观察员认为，此次选举自由但并不公平。该组织表示，无处不在的国家资助广告和媒体偏见给青年民主主义者联盟带来了“不当优势”。
如今布达佩斯的广告牌仍被青年民主主义者联盟的宣传占据。欧尔班任期内修改的选举法也允许其政党在得票率不足50%的情况下获得绝对多数席位。
万斯的访问
万斯计划在选举前数日到访，凸显了欧尔班在与特朗普结盟的全球保守派网络中的地位，3月两场布达佩斯会议进一步强化了这一角色，来自世界各地的右翼政客和活动人士出席了会议。
但即便部分欧尔班的盟友也怀疑这种支持展示能否转化为选票。“国内议题将决定选民意向，”布达佩斯支持欧尔班的智库Szazadveg的政治分析师佐尔坦·基泽利说道。
在3月21日的匈牙利保守政治行动会议（CPAC Hungary）上——美国保守派的重要年度论坛保守政治行动会议的分支——与会者包括阿根廷的米莱、德国极右翼选择党的爱丽丝·魏德尔，以及两名共和党众议员：爱达荷州的拉斯·富彻和马里兰州的安迪·哈里斯。此次会议对路透社等传统媒体闭门。
在线直播的演讲中流露着对匈牙利选举的焦虑。台上，保守派媒体人士戴夫·鲁宾承认代表们存在“担忧”。哈里斯警告称有“破坏者”试图摧毁基督教价值观，并敦促匈牙利人“将破坏者赶出去并关上大门”，还补充道“西方、基督教、自由文明的未来取决于此”。
哈里斯告诉路透社，欧尔班的领导“为欧洲许多中右翼领导人的胜利铺平了道路。当然，这也给他带来了政治上的 targeted”。
鲁宾未回应置评请求。
匈牙利保守政治行动会议结束两天后，欧尔班接待了至少10个欧洲极右翼政党的领导人，包括法国的玛丽娜·勒庞和荷兰的吉尔特·威尔德斯。他们的联盟“欧洲爱国者”由欧尔班及其盟友于2024年创立，目前是欧洲议会中的第三大党团。
支持欧尔班的分析师基泽利表示，他在美国的保守派联系人并未因欧尔班的民调劣势而感到不安，他们认为特朗普2024年的胜利告诉他们不要相信民调。
他称欧尔班似乎落后只是因为“亲反对派的民调机构”，并转而提及美国咨询公司麦克劳克林& Associates的民调——该公司因与特朗普及其他保守派政客合作而闻名——其民调显示欧尔班的青年民主主义者联盟以六个百分点的优势领先对手蒂萨党。该公司未回应置评请求。
基泽利表示，这样的优势将使青年民主主义者联盟能够单独执政，或与极右翼“我们的家园”党联合执政。“反对派毫无机会，”他说道。
然而，多数民调结果却相反——它们显示这位挑战者的优势正在蚕食青年民主主义者联盟长期占据的阵地。
欧尔班的对手马雅尔绝非“觉醒”或左翼人士。他以“要么现在，要么永不”为竞选口号，其政党主张严格的移民政策、家庭价值观和民族主义——这些长期以来与欧尔班的执政理念相关联的主题。他的姓氏“Magyar”意为“匈牙利人”。
激烈选战的压力已在竞选活动中显现。欧尔班在最近一次于西北部城市杰尔的集会上遭到嘘声，这对一位其公开活动通常经过精心编排的领导人来说实属罕见。
他明显感到恼怒，指责起哄者“没有与匈牙利人站在一起”。
编辑：贾森·塞普
我们的标准：路透社信托原则。
US conservatives watch nervously as Orban faces tough test in Hungary vote
2026-03-31T06:04:14.187Z / reuters.com
- Summary
- Orban faces toughest electoral challenge since 2010, trailing Tisza party in polls
- Magyar’s campaign focuses on corruption, low wages and rising food prices
- Trump’s support seen unlikely to sway election dominated by domestic issues
BUDAPEST, March 31 (Reuters) – U.S. conservatives have long pointed to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as proof that a Western leader can crack down on immigration, defy global institutions and wage war on “woke” liberalism – and still win elections.
But as Hungary heads toward an April 12 parliamentary election, some of Orban’s most enthusiastic admirers in the U.S., including President Donald Trump, are confronting a once‑unthinkable prospect: after 16 years in power, Europe’s champion of “illiberal democracy” could be voted out of office.
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Defeat for Orban would reverberate well beyond Hungary, casting doubt on the durability of a political system – marked by hardline nationalism and an erosion of democratic checks – that some on the American right have touted as a blueprint for reshaping Western democracy. It would also come as momentum appears to be slowing for some of Europe’s far-right parties, with Trump’s unpopularity increasingly seen as a liability among European voters.
Opinion polls show Orban and his Fidesz party face the toughest electoral challenge since returning to power in 2010. In most independent surveys, they trail the center-right Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar.
Magyar, 45, has toured hundreds of towns and villages, often giving speeches from what has become a symbol of his campaign: a flatbed truck painted in Hungary’s national colors.
While he vows to tackle corruption and democratic backsliding, blaming both on Orban’s long rule, Magyar’s rallies focus on bread‑and‑butter concerns such as low wages, rising food prices and deteriorating public services. Magyar, a lawyer and member of the European Parliament, has drawn strong support from younger voters, with backers attributing his rapid rise to disciplined messaging and slick social media.
Orban, 62, has depicted Magyar as a risky bet who will bow to the European Union and drag the country into the Ukraine war. Orban maintains close ties with Russia and opposes helping Ukraine. Across Budapest, pro-Orban campaign posters reinforce that message, branding Fidesz as “The Safe Choice.”
Five political analysts said that even high-profile backing from Washington – including Trump’s endorsement and a planned visit by Vice President J.D. Vance on April 7-8 – is unlikely to shift the outcome, as domestic issues such as the cost of living dominate the election.
Trump has praised Orban as “a truly strong and powerful leader,” and conferences in Budapest have drawn conservative figures from across the U.S. to study his political playbook.
Orban’s self-described “illiberal democracy” mirrors key themes of Trump-era America: harsh anti-immigration policies, open disdain for liberal norms, hostility toward global institutions, and attacks on the media, universities and nonprofit groups. He was the first European leader to endorse Trump during his 2016 presidential bid.
Under the Obama administration, Washington repeatedly warned that Orban’s government was eroding democratic norms, including judicial independence and media and religious freedoms, but that criticism largely faded once Trump began his first term.
Since then, as Trump’s ties with much of Europe have frayed, Hungary under Orban has moved closer to him, including by joining his “Board of Peace,” an initiative that challenges the United Nations’ traditional role.
Another trait that has won Orban admirers on the American right is his readiness to confront the European Union. Orban has repeatedly defied the bloc, most notably by opposing Ukraine’s bid for membership and maintaining close ties with Russia. His opponent, Magyar, has vowed to pull Hungary away from Moscow and re‑anchor it in the West.
A spokesperson for Orban did not respond to requests for comment. Magyar, in a previous interview with Reuters, said voters must choose between Europe and development, or a continuation of “16 years of decline.”
ENDORSEMENTS BUT NO MONEY
On his Truth Social platform, Trump has credited Orban with helping the U.S. and Hungary reach “new heights of cooperation and spectacular achievement.” Trump counted Orban as a “close partner, respected leader, and a winner for the people of Hungary – a great ally to the United States,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said in an email to Reuters.
But the Trump administration has not given Orban the kind of economic backing extended to another ally, President Javier Milei of Argentina. Last year, the U.S. provided Argentina with a multibillion‑dollar support package to help stabilize its currency and bolster Milei ahead of midterm elections.
After a meeting with Trump at the White House in November, Orban said he had secured an agreement with the U.S. for a “financial shield”to protect Hungary’s economy. But Trump later denied offering Orban any such lifeline. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a visit to Budapest on February 16, made only vague promises of “finding ways to provide assistance” if Hungary’s economy was struggling.
“We’re hitting a ceiling (on) what the Americans are willing to really offer,” said Zsuzsanna Vegh, a Berlin-based political analyst focusing on Central and Eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C.
“That may signal a level of uncertainty about whether Orban will really win. Trump might not want to be seen supporting a loser,” she said.
A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
The last general election in Hungary in 2022, which Orban won by a landslide, was deemed free but not fair by election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a Vienna-based regional security organization. It said ubiquitous state-funded advertising and media bias gave Fidesz an “undue advantage.”
Billboards in Budapest remain dominated by Fidesz today. Changes in election law under Orban have also allowed his party to win supermajorities with less than 50% of votes.
A VANCE VISIT
Vance’s planned visit, days before the vote, highlights Orban’s place in a Trump‑aligned global conservative network, a role underscored in March by two Budapest conferences attended by right‑wing politicians and activists from around the world.
But even some of Orban’s allies doubt the show of support will translate into votes. “Domestic issues will determine voter intentions,” said Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst at Szazadveg, a pro-Orban think tank in Budapest.
At a March 21 gathering of CPAC Hungary – an offshoot of the Conservative Political Action Conference, a prominent annual forum of U.S. conservatives – attendees included Argentina’s Milei, Alice Weidel of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany, and two Republican congressmen, Russ Fulcher of Idaho and Andy Harris of Maryland. The conference was closed to Reuters and other traditional media.
Anxiety about Hungary’s election surfaced in speeches streamed online. Onstage, the conservative media personality Dave Rubin acknowledged a sense of “trepidation” among delegates. Harris warned of “vandals” seeking to destroy Christian values and urged Hungarians to “throw the vandals out and shut the gate,” adding that “the future of Western, Christian, free civilization depends on it.”
Harris told Reuters Orban’s leadership “led the way for the victory of many right-of-center leaders in Europe. Of course, that put a political target on him.”
Rubin didn’t reply to a request for comment.
Two days after CPAC Hungary, Orban hosted leaders of at least 10 European far-right parties, including France’s Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders of the Netherlands. Their alliance, Patriots for Europe — founded by Orban and allies in 2024 — is now the third‑largest group in the European Parliament.
Kiszelly, the pro-Orban analyst, said his conservative contacts in the U.S. were unfazed by Orban’s polling troubles, arguing that Trump’s 2024 victory had taught them not to trust surveys.
He said Orban appeared to be trailing only because of “pro‑opposition pollsters,” pointing instead to polling by McLaughlin & Associates, a U.S. firm known for its work with Trump and other conservative politicians, that showed Orban’s Fidesz leading the rival Tisza party by six points. The firm did not respond to a request for comment.
Kiszelly said such a margin would allow Fidesz to retain power outright or govern with the far‑right Our Homeland party. “The opposition has no chance,” he said.
Most polls, however, suggest otherwise – and give an edge to a challenger whose appeal cuts into terrain long dominated by Fidesz.
Orban’s rival, Magyar, is hardly a “woke” or left‑wing figure. Campaigning under the slogan “Now or never,” his party espouses strict immigration policies, family values and nationalism — themes long associated with Orban’s rule. His surname means “Hungarian.”
The strain of a tight contest is showing on the campaign trail. Orban was booed at a recent rally in the northwestern city of Gyor, a rare experience for a leader whose appearances are usually tightly choreographed.
Visibly rattled, he accused the hecklers of “not standing with Hungarians.”
Editing by Jason Szep
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