2026-05-01T08:00:51.238Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
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扎卡里·沃尔夫
发布于 2026年5月1日 美国东部时间凌晨4:00
2026年2月10日拍摄于华盛顿特区的白宫。
格雷姆·斯隆/彭博社/盖蒂图片社
美国大选 党内初选 唐纳德·特朗普
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现在就认真预判2028年总统大选还为时过早，但部分潜在候选人已经开始采取实质性行动。
我定期与CNN的爱德华-艾萨克·多弗雷讨论民主党竞选阵营的变化以及未来趋势。以下是我们最新一次对话的转录内容，已为风格和流畅性进行编辑整理。
发生了哪些变化？卡玛拉·哈里斯
沃尔夫： 我们上次交谈是在去年年底。现在情况有何变化？
多弗雷： 最能改变前期竞选氛围的变化，或许是卡玛拉·哈里斯发表的若干言论，这些言论表明她比多数人预想的更认真地考虑再次参选。
如果她参选，将成为这场竞选的关键玩家。我不认为她能轻松拿下提名，但对于所有考虑参选的人来说，哈里斯是否参选，将从两个方面让这场竞选变得截然不同。
显然，她曾是民主党总统候选人，也是前副总统，因此这场竞选不可避免地会以她为核心，就像2024年共和党初选围绕唐纳德·特朗普、2020年民主党初选围绕乔·拜登展开一样。
这种情况未必总能如愿。2008年民主党初选初期曾以希拉里·克林顿为核心，但她最终并未获得提名。不过，这仍将与一场完全开放的竞选形成不同的态势。
她能成为核心的部分原因在于，她能够获得黑人选民的强力支持，尤其是千禧一代到婴儿潮一代的黑人女性选民。这些选民在民主党初选中忠诚度高、参与度强。目前我们仍不清楚她是否会参选，一切都还只是猜测。
她真的能克服惨败的影响吗？
沃尔夫： 但她在2024年大选中落败了。民主党内部的资深人士是否认为，有充分理由能让她重新激发选民热情、动员投票，并克服民主党人因败选特朗普而产生的负面情绪——毕竟当时他们曾说败选将是“末日浩劫”？
多弗雷： 她必须亲自阐明这一点。但到目前为止，她尚未清晰地提出这一论点。2024年竞选期间，她一直挂在嘴边的一句话是“我们不会走回头路”。如果她这次认真考虑参选，这句话可能反而对她不利。她必须提出面向未来的、积极主动的竞选主张。过去约六七个月，她一直在进行延长版的图书巡回宣传活动，会见了许多人，与他们进行交流——目前我们尚不清楚这会带来什么结果。
2024年11月6日，民主党总统候选人、前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在华盛顿特区霍华德大学向时任总统当选人唐纳德·特朗普发表败选演讲时，其支持者在一旁聆听。
伊夫林·霍克斯坦/路透社
2024年11月6日，民主党总统候选人、前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在华盛顿特区霍华德大学向时任总统当选人唐纳德·特朗普发表败选演讲时，其支持者在一旁聆听。
伊夫林·霍克斯坦/路透社
谁在“图书初选”中领先？
沃尔夫： 几位潜在候选人都出版了图书，这几乎已成为参选的先决条件。谁在这场“图书初选”中表现最佳？
多弗雷： （加利福尼亚州州长）加文·纽瑟姆的图书销量很高，但《纽约时报》的相关报道显示，其中许多书都是由纽瑟姆的政治团队购买，随后赠送给了作为捐赠者的支持者。
卡玛拉·哈里斯的图书销量也很高，尽管我们没有确切数据。她的图书并非由支持她的政治行动委员会购买，但很多销量都与图书巡回宣传活动的门票销售挂钩。这两起案例都是非常成功的图书销售案例。
（宾夕法尼亚州州长）乔希·夏皮罗的图书出版时获得了一定报道，但销量并未达到大规模级别。（新泽西州参议员）科里·布克的图书恰逢伊朗战争爆发，对他和他的图书巡回宣传计划来说，这个时机非常糟糕。
（康涅狄格州参议员）克里斯·墨菲的图书即将出版。（明尼苏达州州长）蒂姆·瓦尔兹宣布将出版图书，但我认为瓦尔兹不太可能参选总统。
加文·纽瑟姆近况如何？
沃尔夫： 纽瑟姆曾有一段时间无处不在，频频登上新闻版面，还多次“嘲讽”特朗普。他的热度是否已经消退？人们是否已经对他感到厌倦？他现在情况如何？
多弗雷： 纽瑟姆已有数月未与特朗普进行大型正面交锋，这或许就是你察觉到的变化。但这并不一定意味着他的热度下降。如果说距离初选还有两年的民调数据还有任何参考价值的话，那么他的知名度始终居高不下。许多考虑参选的人，即便不会公开承认，也会私下表示他是领跑者。我不清楚在这个阶段，“领跑者”究竟意味着什么。
加州州长加文·纽瑟姆于2月24日在纽约斯特赖克文化中心宣传其著作《匆匆青年》时与哈里·西森交谈。
蒂莫西·A·克利里/法新社/盖蒂图片社
加州继任州长的混乱竞选是否会给他带来负面影响？
沃尔夫： 目前，民主党在接替纽瑟姆的加州州长竞选中局势一团糟。这会对他造成不利影响吗？
多弗雷： 纽瑟姆的团队认为，只要民主党候选人能在6月2日的选举中进入前两名，情况就不会有问题。他们相信，作为倾向民主党的大州，加州选民会团结支持这位候选人，尽管正如我此前报道的那样，加州民众和纽瑟姆本人对目前的候选人选择都有些漠不关心。
如果两名共和党候选人进入前两名，那么加州将迎来共和党州长——考虑到史蒂夫·希尔顿和查德·比安科在民调中的支持率，这种情况有可能发生。这在诸多方面都可能给纽瑟姆带来麻烦，无论是形象受损，还是卸任后可能启动的相关调查。
纽瑟姆和他的团队显然将此视为潜在风险，他们告诉我，除非局势明显有可能出现两强均为共和党人的局面，否则他不愿插手这场州长竞选。他认为自己有能力大幅扭转局势。
下一梯队的候选人有哪些？
沃尔夫： 如果哈里斯是前总统候选人，而纽瑟姆被许多人视为领跑者，那么下一梯队的候选人都有谁？
多弗雷： 我认为按梯队划分并没有太大意义，现在还为时过早。但确实有几个人一直在通过各种方式提升自身曝光度：
皮特·布蒂吉格一直保持活跃度，在多个地区举办多场市政厅会议，这些地方显然是为了维持民主党选民的热情，同时也为了让自己持续留在公众视野中。他曾有几次备受关注的访谈，在推特上收获了大量人气，这在民主党群体中已是常态。
大约一个月前，我在伊利诺伊州参加该州联邦参议员初选，这场初选几乎成为（伊利诺伊州州长）J·B·普里茨克的试金石，能检验他的资金投入和竞选团队实力。最终结果显然对他有利。
前美国交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格于4月10日在纽约举行的全国行动网络（NAN）全国代表大会上发表演讲。
吉娜·穆恩/路透社
伊利诺伊州州长J·B·普里茨克于4月9日在纽约举行的全国行动网络（NAN）全国代表大会上发表演讲。
布伦丹·麦克德米德/路透社
我们将在今年年内看到梯队划分真正成型，但目前情况各不相同，候选人的行动方式也各有千秋。夏皮罗一直保持相对低调，专注于谋求连任，并希望能助力多名民主党人当选国会议员。
拉姆·伊曼纽尔（前白宫幕僚长、前芝加哥市长）和布蒂吉格一样，目前并未担任任何政府或政治职务，但他不断提出各种政策主张，试图引导舆论话题，同时让人们持续关注自己。目前，许多政界人士仍认为他只是个有趣的人物，不会真正参选，早已将他排除在外。
我们正生活在这样一个时代：美国总统将迎来历史上第二位非连任两届的总统。他曾是真人秀明星，曾两次遭弹劾并被判有罪，之后却成功连任总统。因此，对于2028年大选来说，“何为严肃且可信的候选人”已经成为一个全新的讨论话题。
无论是作为记者，还是作为试图理解这一切的普通公民，我都尽量避免说“这位候选人比那位更有优势”。我想借用推特上流传的一句话：2004年总统大选预热阶段，乔·利伯曼曾在所有民调中领先。
（注：当时的民调实际情况更为复杂，但利伯曼当时的表现确实不俗。同样值得一提的是，2016年总统大选预热阶段，民调甚至都没有将特朗普纳入其中。）
“左翼”与“右翼”的界限正在模糊
沃尔夫： 利伯曼早期能在初选中具备竞争力，部分原因在于他曾是阿尔·戈尔2000年大选的竞选搭档。最终，他实际上也脱离了民主党，属于中间派。目前是否有民主党人向中间阵营靠拢，还是所有人都在向左翼移动？
多弗雷： 我们在更大范围的政治讨论中看到的另一个现象是，“左翼”“右翼”“进步派”这类术语的定义正在变得模糊。如今，何为“进步派”在很大程度上取决于观察者的视角。
在2020年民主党初选中，基本标准是：支持“全民医保”的就是进步派，不支持的就是温和派。但2028年的民主党初选，未必会有一个占据绝对主导地位的议题。
我们已经看到的一个变化是，对以色列的支持正在被塑造成进步派与温和派的分野，这是美国政治的重大转变，也是民主党政治的重大转变。此前，对以色列的支持从未成为划分进步派与温和派的标准。
总统竞选何时会真正启动？
沃尔夫： 距离候选人正式宣布参选还有多久？
多弗雷： 伊丽莎白·沃伦是在2018年12月31日宣布参选的；乔·拜登则直到2019年4月才宣布。所以我们还有一段时间。但真正重要的并非宣布参选的具体日期，而是候选人的实际行动——尤其是如果最终参选人数达到12人，甚至多达24人的话。
竞选资金模式可能会在注意力经济中发生改变
美国参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦于4月16日在华盛顿特区国会山接受媒体采访。
凯莉·库珀/路透社
沃尔夫： 竞选资金的流向和投入方式正在发生变化。这会对民主党产生什么影响？实际的竞选支出是否会脱离传统的竞选运作模式？
多弗雷： 多名竞选团队工作人员和潜在候选人曾专门向我提及此事，以纽约佐赫兰·曼达尼的市长竞选为例。无论你对他的政治立场或竞选细节有何看法，他的竞选花费并不高。他通过突破性的社交媒体视频、举办各类活动、寻宝游戏等方式凝聚人气，引发媒体关注，从而以低成本完成了竞选运作。
纽约市一位知名共和党人在11月市长选举的前一天打电话给我说：“我们必须查清支撑这场竞选的所有资金来源。”我回答他：“根本没有所谓的秘密资金，一切都来自社交媒体宣传。”
因此，未来的竞选将是多方因素的结合：候选人的筹款规模；来自包括人工智能公司在内的各类团体的大量外部资金投入；以及他们如何最大化自身在注意力经济中的曝光度。
代际变革已经到来
沃尔夫： 2028年大选可能是首次没有婴儿潮一代或前婴儿潮一代（如特朗普或拜登）参选的总统选举。
多弗雷：： 目前被提及的潜在候选人都未超过70岁，这基本排除了大部分婴儿潮一代。因此，至少在政党领导层层面，确实会出现一定程度的代际更替。其中一些候选人可能会非常年轻，对吧？44岁的布蒂吉格是目前被认真讨论的候选人中最年轻的一位。
除了（纽约州众议员）亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特兹，她刚过35岁的总统参选年龄门槛。她无疑极具号召力，其政治主张也得到不少人认同——她鲜明的年轻形象，与过去多年来领导民主党的政客形成了鲜明对比。
美国众议员亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特兹于2026年2月13日在德国慕尼黑参加慕尼黑安全会议。
莉萨·约翰森/路透社
奥卡西奥-科特兹拥有极高的知名度
沃尔夫： 她可能是民主党内部最具争议的人物，多年来共和党一直将她妖魔化。
多弗雷： 但她在民主党基础选民中也极具人气。你可以将她与哈里斯和纽瑟姆并列。任何考虑参选总统的民主党人，都渴望拥有她在民调中那样的支持率。不过，无论人们喜欢还是讨厌她，对她的印象都已基本定型。如果到初选阶段，参选人数达到2020年的五六位严肃候选人，而她能获得30%以上的支持率，那她将处于非常有利的位置。
不过，奥卡西奥-科特兹目前有三个职位可选：寻求连任众议院议员、竞选纽约州参议员（现任议员为查克·舒默），或是参选总统。
会出现黑马候选人吗？
沃尔夫： 最近有没有什么人的动向让你感到意外？
多弗雷： 我在新奥尔良参加民主党全国委员会的活动时，（前新奥尔良市长）米奇·兰德里欧发表了一场演讲，我现场观看了，其他人也观看了他的其他几场演讲。突然间，所有人都清楚地意识到，他已经开始认真考虑参选总统。我认为，目前整体正处于一个相对平静的阶段，候选人都在私下认真考量是否参选。不便透露太多私下对话，但已有几位潜在候选人开始向我询问，比如你是否真的认为某人会参选、某人又会如何——他们都在认真思考，试图规划自己的参选策略，最终结果如何，我们拭目以待。
还有一件事——（马里兰州州长）韦斯·摩尔几个月前曾跟我谈到，他将全力推动马里兰州议会通过重新划分选区的法案。该州议会会期结束后，这项法案并未获得审议，他也逐渐不再提及。许多人将此视为摩尔需要面对的诸多考验之一。另一件让许多候选人暂时搁置政治计划的事是当前的战争。下次我们再聊这个话题时，我想大家应该会看到更明确的信号，显示他们开始明确自己的竞选立场。
马里兰州州长韦斯·摩尔于2026年1月22日在华盛顿特区民主党全国委员会办公室拍摄肖像。
曼西·斯里瓦斯塔瓦/CNN
美国大选 党内初选 唐纳德·特朗普
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What’s changed about the 2028 Democratic presidential field? Kamala Harris
2026-05-01T08:00:51.238Z / CNN
Analysis by
Zachary Wolf
PUBLISHED May 1, 2026, 4:00 AM ET
The White House in Washington, DC, on February 10, 2026.
Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg/Getty Images
US elections Primary elections Donald Trump
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A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.
It’s too early to start really handicapping the 2028 presidential race, but some would-be candidates are already making serious moves.
I talk periodically to CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere about how the race is changing among Democrats and what to expect. Our latest chat, transcribed and edited for style and flow, is below.
What’s changed? Kamala Harris
WOLF: We last spoke at the end of last year. What’s changed?
DOVERE:The thing that maybe has changed the atmosphere of preliminary thinking the most is that Kamala Harris has made a couple of comments that suggest that she is more serious about running again than most people thought she would be.
If she runs, she would be a factor in the race. I don’t think she would run away with the nomination. But for anybody who is thinking about running, it’s a different kind of race if Harris is in it versus if she’s not, for a couple of reasons.
Obviously she was the nominee and is the former vice president, so inevitably the race would orient around her in a way that it did in the 2024 Republican primaries around Donald Trump and in the 2020 Democratic primaries around Joe Biden.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to the press outside the White House in Washington, DC, on November 8, 2023.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images
It doesn’t always work out. In 2008 the Democratic race oriented around Hillary Clinton early on, and obviously she wasn’t nominated. But it would be a different dynamic from a race that was more completely up for grabs.
Part of why it would orient around her she would be able to draw on strong support from Black voters, especially millennial through boomer Black women. Those are pretty reliable and engaged voters in Democratic primaries. Now we don’t know if she’s going to run, and it’s all speculation at this point.
Could she actually overcome a devastating loss?
WOLF:But she lost in ‘24. Do smart people in the Democratic Party think there is a compelling argument that she could excite people and get them out and overcome the bad taste in Democrats’ mouth from losing to Trump — which they said would be apocalyptic?
DOVERE:She would have to make that argument. And so far, she has not quite made the argument. One of the things she said all the time on the trail in 2024 was, “We’re not going back.” And that may be to her detriment this time around if she gets serious about running. She would have to make a forward-minded, proactive argument. She’s spent about six, seven months now on the extended version of her book tour and meeting with a lot of people, talking with a lot of people — we’re not sure what that will result in from her.
Supporters of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris listen as she delivers remarks conceding the presidential election to then-President-elect Donald Trump at Howard University in Washington, DC, on November 6, 2024.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Supporters listen as former Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris delivered remarks conceding the 2024 US presidential election to then-President-elect Donald Trump, at Howard University in Washington, DC, on November 6, 2024.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Who is winning the book primary?
WOLF: A couple of potential candidates have books out. It’s almost a prerequisite to run. Who’s winning the book election?
DOVERE: (California Gov.) Gavin Newsom sold a lot of books, but what we also found out from some New York Times reporting is that many of those books were bought by Gavin Newsom’s political entities and were then given out to supporters who were donors.
Kamala Harris also sold a lot of books, although I don’t think we have the exact numbers. They weren’t bought by a PAC for her, but a lot of them were tied to sales of tickets to the book tour events. Those have been the really strong ones.
Josh Shapiro’s book (governor of Pennsylvania) got a little bit of coverage when it came out, but didn’t sell in a massive way. Cory Booker’s book landed right as the Iran war started, which was unfortunate timing for him and for his book tour plans.
There is a Chris Murphy (senator from Connecticut) book coming soon. Tim Walz (governor of Minnesota) has announced a book, though I don’t think Walz is likely to run for president.
Where is Gavin Newsom?
WOLF: Newsom seemed ubiquitous for a while, finding ways into the news and trolling Trump. Has he lost steam? Are people tired of him? Where is he?
DOVERE: Newsom has not had a big showdown moment with Trump for a couple months, which is probably what you’re picking up on. That does not mean necessarily that he has lost steam. To the extent that any poll taken two years before the primaries matters at all, his name recognition is consistently shown to be high. A lot of people who are thinking about the race, even if they won’t admit it out loud, will say that he’s the front-runner. I don’t know what being the front-runner means at this point.
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks with Harry Sisson to promote his book, “Young Man in a Hurry” at the Streicker Cultural Center, in New York, on February 24.
Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images
Could the messy race to succeed Newsom as governor be a problem?
WOLF: The race to replace Newsom as California governor is objectively a mess, at the moment, for Democrats. Will that hurt him?
DOVERE:Newsom’s people believe that they are in fine shape as long as a Democrat makes it into the top two on June 2, in which case they believe that a very Democratic-leaning state will rally behind whoever that candidate is, even though so far, Californians and Newsom himself, as I’ve reported, have felt a little blasé about their choices.
If two Republicans advance, and therefore a Republican would be the next governor of California — which could happen, given that where Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are showing up in the polls — that would likely be a problem for Newsom in a lot of ways, both in the appearance of it, and in the investigations that could get launched into him after the fact.
Newsom and his folks certainly see that as a potential problem, and what they have told me is that he’s reluctant to intervene in the race unless he really sees that it is likely headed to what’s been called a Democratic lockout for the top two positions, and he believes that he could substantially change that.
What’s the next tier of candidates?
WOLF: If Harris is the former nominee and Newsom is the person that a lot of people view as the front-runner, what’s the next tier?
DOVERE: I don’t think that it is helpful to think in terms of tiers. It’s just very, very early. But there are a couple people who’ve been trying to keep themselves busy in different ways:
Pete Buttigieg has been keeping around, doing a bunch of town halls in places that are clearly about keeping Democratic energy up and also keeping himself in the conversation. He’s had a couple high-profile interview moments that have gotten him popular on Twitter, as he can often tend to be among Democrats.
I was in Chicago about a month ago for the US Senate primary in Illinois, which had become a sort of proxy test for (Illinois Gov.) JB Pritzker and what his spending would look like, and whether his operation was strong. Things certainly went his way.
Former US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg speaks during the National Action Network (NAN) National Convention in New York City, on April 10..
Jeenah Moon/Reuters
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker speaks during the NAN National Convention in New York City, on April 9.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
We’ll see over the course of the year what the tiers actually start to look like, but they’re different. People are doing things in different ways. Shapiro has continued to keep a relatively low profile as he focuses on the reelection run that he’s got and getting a bunch of, he hopes, Democrats elected to Congress.
Rahm Emanuel (former White House chief of staff and Chicago mayor), much like Buttigieg, does not have any actual role in government or politics these days, but Emanuel is putting out idea after idea to try to both shape the conversation and get people talking about him. For now, he continues to be written off by a lot of the political people as interesting but not going to actually happen.
We are living in a world where the president of the United States, for only the second time in history, is serving a nonconsecutive term. He was a reality TV star who had been impeached twice and convicted of crimes and then got himself reelected to the presidency. So who counts as a serious or credible candidate, I think, is a different conversation going into 2028.
Both as a reporter and as a citizen trying to absorb this, I’m trying not to say, “This person is in better shape than that person.” To steal a line that is often circulated on Twitter, around this time for the 2004 presidential race, Joe Lieberman was leading all the polls.
(Note: The polling was actually more complicated than that, but Lieberman was performing well. It’s also true that at this point in the 2016 presidential election cycle, polling generally didn’t even include Trump.)
‘Left’ and ‘right’ are getting scrambled
WOLF: What seemed to make Lieberman viable early in the primary was that he had been Al Gore’s running mate in 2000. He also, ultimately, effectively left the Democratic Party after the fact. He was a centrist. Is there anybody moving to the middle of the party, or is everybody moving to the left?
DOVERE: Another thing that we are seeing in the larger political conversation is that terms like “the left” or “the right” or “progressive” are getting scrambled. What defines a progressive is somewhat in the eye of the beholder these days.
In the 2020 Democratic primary race, basically it was, if you support Medicare for All, you’re a progressive, and if you don’t, you’re a moderate. It’s not clear if there will be one overriding issue in a 2028 Democratic primary race.
One thing that we are seeing already is that support for Israel is being turned into a progressive/moderate issue, which is a major change in American politics, and is a major change in Democratic Party politics. It has never before been the arbiter of what is progressive versus what is moderate.
When will the presidential race really start to happen?
WOLF: How far are we from people actually announcing campaigns?
DOVERE: Elizabeth Warren announced her campaign on December 31, 2018; Joe Biden didn’t announce until April of 2019. So we have some time. But it’s less about what day you announce than what you’re doing — especially if we end up with a dozen, even up to two dozen candidates.
The money aspect of campaigning could change in the attention economy
US Senator Elizabeth Warren speaks to the media on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on April 16.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
WOLF: How the money flows and where it is going is changing. How is that going to affect Democrats? Will the real spending be outside the traditional campaign structure?
DOVERE:A number of operatives and potential candidates have talked to me explicitly about this from things like what happened with Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign in New York. Take away whatever you think about his politics or the specifics of the race. He did not spend a lot of money on his campaign. He did it through breakthrough social media videos and other things he was doing — events, scavenger hunts, those sorts of things — that galvanized attention and created a level of press that made it so that he could run things on the cheap.
There’s a very prominent Republican in New York City who, the night before the mayoral election in November, called me up and said, “We’re going to have to find out where all the money is that’s propping up this campaign.” And I said to him, “No, there’s not secret money. It’s just through the social media stuff.”
So it’s going to be a combination of how much they raise; all this outside money that’s going to flow from all sorts of places, including AI companies and other groups that are spending a lot; and then what they can do to maximize their place in the attention economy.
The generational change is here
WOLF:It could be the first election without a boomer or a pre-boomer like Trump or Biden.
DOVERE: No one being talked about as running is over 70, which does take away most of the boomers. So yes, there will be some level of generational change, at least in party leadership. And some of these people could be much younger, right? Buttigieg, 44, is the youngest of the people being talked about in any kind of serious way.
Except for (New York US Rep.) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who would just be past the 35-year-old eligibility point. She obviously embodies a lot of excitement. And her politics, people agree with it — but she also has a clear youthfulness that is a contrast with people who have been leading the party in the last bunch of years.
US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks during the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2026.
Liesa Johannssen/Reuters
AOC has serious name recognition
WOLF:She’s maybe the most divisive of the Democrats. Republicans have been demonizing her for years.
DOVERE: But also extremely popular for a lot of people among the Democratic Party base. She is someone who you could put on the list with Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. Any Democrat who was thinking about running for president would be desperate to have the kind of support numbers that she has in the polls. But she is also somewhat locked in with people and their impressions of her, whether they like her or they don’t. But if we’re in a field where, by the time we get to the primaries, there are five or six serious candidates, as there were in 2020, and she’s pulling 30-ish plus percent of the vote, that’s going to put her in a strong position.
But Ocasio-Cortez could be running for one of three offices — either reelection to the House, or to the Senate seat that’s currently held by Chuck Schumer in New York, or for president.
Is there a surprise out there?
WOLF: Is there anybody that’s done anything to surprise you recently?
DOVERE: I was in New Orleans for a (Democratic National Committee) event, and (former Mayor) Mitch Landrieu got up and gave a speech that I watched, and then made some other speeches that other people saw that were all of a sudden clear to people that he was starting to think seriously about running for president. I think we are in this quiet moment, for the most part, of people starting to get serious about their own internal deliberations. Without revealing private conversations too much, several of the prospective candidates have started to ask me, like, if you really think this person’s running and that person — they’re thinking about it. They’re trying to game their spots out of this, and we’ll see what that leads to.
One other thing — (Maryland Gov.) Wes Moore spoke to me about a couple months ago about how much he was going to put into trying to get the redistricting bill through the Maryland legislature. The session ended in Maryland and the bill never got picked up, and he kind of let it fade away. That was seen by a lot of people as one of many tests that Moore would have in front of him. The other thing that’s sort of blocking out the political sun for a bunch of people is the war. Next time we have this conversation, I think we’re gonna see some clearer signs for people about where they’re starting to lay down markers.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is photographed at the Democratic National Committee office in Washington, DC, on January 22.
Maansi Srivastava/CNN
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