2026-04-16 12:39 UTC / 路透社
作者：露西娅·穆蒂卡尼
2026年4月16日 美国东部时间上午8:39（UTC时间12:39），2小时前更新
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2021年9月3日，美国纽约曼哈顿，一份就业报告发布后，第五大道上的招聘会标牌。路透社/安德鲁·凯利/档案照片
- 周度初请失业金人数减少1.1万人，至20.7万人
- 续请失业金人数增加3.1万人，至181.8万人
华盛顿4月16日路透电 — 美国上周首次申领失业救济金人数下降，表明劳动力市场状况保持稳定，但由于伊朗战争给经济蒙上阴影，雇主们在增加员工数量方面持谨慎态度。
这场冲突导致油价飙升以及随之而来的通胀压力上升，已将消费者信心推至历史低点，经济学家警告称，家庭可能会缩减开支，进而对劳动力市场产生连锁反应。一些人预计，油价冲击将导致劳动力市场疲软。
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“在某个时刻，高企的能源和原材料成本将导致企业裁员边缘员工以保护利润率，”高频经济公司首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格说道。“请记住，在1973年石油危机中，初请失业金人数出现实质性上涨大约用了三个月时间。”
美国劳工部周四表示，在截至4月11日的一周中，经季节调整后的州失业救济金首次申请人数下降1.1万人，至20.7万人。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预计最新一周的初请人数为21.5万人。
今年以来，初请失业金人数始终维持在20.1万至23万的区间内。尽管裁员率依然偏低，但美以与伊朗之间的战争可能正在阻碍招聘。
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美联储周三发布的褐皮书报告显示，“多个地区报告称对临时或合同工的需求增加，因为企业对长期雇佣持谨慎态度。”
这份基于4月初收集的信息的报告还指出，中东冲突“被视为影响招聘、定价和资本投资决策的主要不确定性来源，许多企业采取观望态度。”
自2月底战争爆发以来，油价已飙升逾35%。汽油和柴油价格大幅上涨。近期政府数据显示，3月份油价上涨推高了消费者和生产者价格。唐纳德·特朗普总统已下令封锁霍尔木兹海峡，中断进出伊朗的海上贸易。
美国股市小幅高开。美元兑一篮子货币升值。美国国债收益率上升。
劳动力市场处于停滞状态
经济学家指出，战争爆发前劳动力市场就已处于停滞状态，原因是特朗普全面实施的进口关税和大规模驱逐移民政策带来的不确定性。经济学家们表示，中东冲突只是给企业带来的又一层不确定性。
劳动力市场的持续稳定被视为给美联储留出了空间，使其可以在一段时间内维持利率不变，同时决策者们关注战争对通胀的影响。美国央行上月将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%的区间内。
申领失业救济金一周后继续申请救济的人数（这是衡量招聘情况的一项指标）的数据显示，在截至4月4日的一周中，该人数增加3.1万人，经季节调整后为181.8万人。
所谓的续请失业金人数已从去年的高位下降，部分原因可能是人们耗尽了救济金领取资格——大多数州的救济金领取期限最长为26周。该数据未包括部分失业的年轻工人，这些人通常工作经历有限或没有工作经历。
年轻成年人的就业市场形势严峻。3月份，20至24岁年龄段的失业率为6.4%。相比之下，整体失业率为4.3%。
露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；千住智子编辑
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US weekly jobless claims drop amid labor market stability; Iran war a risk
2026-04-16 12:39 UTC / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
April 16, 2026 12:39 PM UTC Updated 2 hours ago
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Signage for a job fair is seen on 5th Avenue after the release of the jobs report in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 3, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
- Weekly jobless claims fall 11,000 to 207,000
- Continuing claims increase 31,000 to 1.818 million
WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) – New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable, though employers are cautious about increasing headcount as the war with Iran casts a shadow over the economy.
A surge in oil prices and the accompanying rise in inflation pressures because of the conflict have pushed consumer sentiment to record lows, and economists warned households could scale back spending, with ripple effects on the labor market. Some expected labor market weakness because of the oil price shock.
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“At some point, elevated energy costs and prices for materials will cause firms to lay off marginal workers to protect profit margins,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “Just keep in mind that in the 1973 oil shock, it took about three months for claims to start to rise in any meaningful way.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended April 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.
Claims remained in their 201,000-230,000 range for this year. While layoffs remain low, the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could be hindering hiring.
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The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on Wednesday showed “several districts noted increased demand for temporary or contract workers, as firms remained cautious about committing to permanent hires.”
The report based on information collected in early April also noted the Middle East conflict “was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture.”
Oil prices have soared more than 35% since the war started at the end of February. Gasoline and diesel prices have increased sharply. Higher oil prices raised consumer and producer prices in March, government data showed recently. President Donald Trump has imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, halting seaborne trade in and out of Iran.
U.S. stocks opened slightly higher. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose.
LABOR MARKET IN A HOLDING PATTERN
The labor market was already in a holding pattern prior to the war, blamed by economists on uncertainty stemming from Trump’s sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. The Middle East conflict was just another layer of uncertainty for businesses, economists said.
Continued labor market stability is seen giving the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged for some time while policymakers monitor the inflation fallout from the war. The U.S. central bank last month left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.818 million during the week ended April 4, the claims report showed.
The so-called continuing claims have dropped from last year’s lofty levels likely in part due to people exhausting their eligibility for benefits, limited to 26 weeks in most states. The data does not include some unemployed young workers, who typically have a limited or no work history.
The job market for young adults is tough. The unemployment rate for the 20-to-24-year-old age group was at 6.4% in March. In contrast, the overall jobless rate was at 4.3%.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.