作者:凯文·利普塔克,CNN
发布时间:2026年2月17日,美国东部时间下午5:04
周二,经过三个半小时的秘密磋商,伊朗和美国谈判代表在日内瓦结束了间接会谈,同意继续谈判。然而,双方具体讨论的内容仍是个谜。
目前尚不清楚双方是仅聚焦于伊朗核计划,还是涉及弹道导弹等其他问题。伊朗首席谈判代表仅表示,双方已达成“一系列指导原则”。一名美国官员则更为谨慎,承认“仍有大量细节需要讨论”。
此次会谈的结果并未缓解人们对地区战争迫在眉睫的担忧。一些官员开始质疑,总统唐纳德·特朗普会允许外交努力持续多久。与此同时,伊朗在谈判期间进行了巡航导弹和快艇军事演习,并短暂封锁了霍尔木兹海峡,这更添了紧张气氛。
周二会谈结束数小时后,副总统JD·万斯在福克斯新闻采访中表示:“特朗普保留在他认为外交走到尽头时叫停的权力。”他补充说,双方“同意后续会面”,但伊朗尚未承认某些“红线”。
到目前为止,特朗普已批准了这种通常定义高风险国际交易的逐步往返谈判模式,派遣其特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和女婿贾里德·库什纳通过阿曼中介人在外国据点与伊朗外交官交换文件。
但据知情人士透露,特朗普也担心被伊朗政权“拖延时间”,其盟友警告称这可能是伊朗的意图,以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡在上周紧急会议中也强调了这一点。
阿曼外交部长赛义德·巴德尔·本·哈马德·布赛迪(右)在2026年2月17日瑞士日内瓦美国-伊朗间接会谈前会见美国特使史蒂夫·维特科夫(中)和总统唐纳德·特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳。
阿曼外交部/路透社
特朗普也敏锐意识到,每过一天未采取军事行动,就离他近两个月前承诺的“援助伊朗抗议者”的初始立场更远。
随着谈判推进,特朗普仅给出模糊的期限。
“我想大概是下个月,”上周四被问及是否有时间表时他说道,“是的,应该不会太久,我是说,应该很快达成。”
在外交语境中,“很快”是相对的,尤其涉及高度技术性的铀浓缩细节时,这在以往谈判中需要核物理学家参与。
奥巴马政府时期的《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA)耗时两年多才敲定,特朗普曾严厉批评该协议对伊朗过于软弱,并最终退出。特朗普去年初与伊朗的艰难谈判持续数月后破裂,导致美国在夏季对伊朗铀浓缩设施发动军事打击。
政府官员认为,由于经济受西方制裁严重影响,伊朗现在比以往更有动力达成协议。特朗普下令的大规模美军部署也是为了施加压力。
然而,伊朗方面似乎不愿立即同意。
“这并不意味着我们能快速达成协议,但至少已经开启了进程,”伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇周二在指出双方同意“起草可能协议文本”后表示。
阿拉格奇在日内瓦领导伊朗代表团时称,未来会议日期尚未确定。一名匿名美国官员表示,伊朗方面暗示将“在两周内带回详细提案”,以解决谈判立场的分歧。
伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在2026年2月17日瑞士日内瓦美国-伊朗会谈期间参加联合国裁军会议特别会议。
皮埃尔·阿尔布瓦/路透社
这段时间大致与美国最大航空母舰“杰拉尔德·福特”号从加勒比海航行至中东的时间相符,该航母将加入特朗普下令准备应对潜在对抗的庞大美军部署中。
与此同时,双方甚至在讨论内容上都难以达成一致。
周二会谈前,德黑兰坚持认为,只有在解除制裁和避免与美国发生战争的协议框架下才会讨论核计划。但一些特朗普政府官员和以色列表示,任何协议必须更全面,还需纳入伊朗的弹道导弹和对地区激进组织的支持。
万斯在福克斯采访中暗示,核问题是优先事项。
“他们危害美国国家安全的方式有很多,但最严重的可能是获得核武器,”他说。
一名消息人士透露,一些地区外交官提出了更广泛的协议,将核项目让步与不侵略承诺结合,并可能达成商业交易,包括允许美国优先开发伊朗的石油、天然气和稀土资源。
这样的协议符合特朗普促成对美有利的宏大交易的利益。尽管如此,根据过去与伊朗谈判的经验,核让步的技术性细节仍将是主要障碍。
伊朗已表示愿意在核计划上做出妥协,坚称核计划用于和平目的,包括提议稀释60%丰度的铀(仅需技术上的一小步即可成为武器级),或暂时中止浓缩最多三年,据知情人士透露。
另一种可能是将高浓缩材料运往第三国(可能是俄罗斯),就像2015年奥巴马政府时期协议中那样。
但特朗普周末仍坚持美国“不希望任何铀浓缩”,暗示美国不会接受伊朗任何级别的铀浓缩。考虑到伊朗长期坚持浓缩是其权利,这似乎是个顽固的分歧点。但谈判前的强硬立场也可能随时改变。
关于美国可能通过军事行动在伊朗达成的目标的持续不确定性,也可能促使特朗普允许延长谈判。
“问题是‘伊朗在军事行动后会怎样’。如果他们有明确答案,我想我们早就看到军事打击了,”拜登政府时期的美国特使阿莫斯·霍赫斯坦表示,“但所有这些谈判和派遣更多军事装备都是为了争取时间来解决这个问题。”
“他们很快就会有足够的军事装备和人员,能够做任何他们认为需要做的事情,”霍赫斯坦说,“问题是,这么做是否明智?”
最终,无论伊朗同意什么,都必须得到最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的批准。哈梅内伊在周二会谈前曾强硬警告美国,称“比美国军舰更危险的是能将其送入海底的武器”,语气不祥。
美国官员表示,获得哈梅内伊的同意将是任何谈判中最困难的部分,而与缺乏其权威的低级官员谈判会延长进程。
与此同时,特朗普上周表示,伊朗政权更迭(可能包括哈梅内伊被推翻)将是“最好的结果”。
As Iran talks drag on, questions emerge over how long Trump will indulge diplomacy
By Kevin Liptak, CNN
PUBLISHED Feb 17, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
After passing notes for three-and-a-half hours Tuesday, Iranian and American negotiators departed their indirect talks in Geneva with an agreement to keep talking. What they’re talking about, exactly, remains an open question.
It’s unclear if the two sides are focused just on Iran’s nuclear program or other issues like the country’s ballistic missiles. Iran’s top negotiator said only that they’d arrived at a “set of guiding principles.” An American official was more circumspect, acknowledging “there are still a lot of details to discuss.”
The readout hardly eased growing fears of an impending regional war. Some officials have started to wonder how long President Donald Trump will allow diplomatic efforts to proceed. Adding to the sense of malaise, Iran conducted military exercises with cruise missiles and boats as the talks were underway, briefly closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump “reserves the ability to say when he thinks that diplomacy has reached its natural end,” Vice President JD Vance said in a Fox News interview, hours after the talks concluded Tuesday. He added that the two sides “agreed to meet afterwards” but that the Iranians have not acknowledged certain “red lines.”
So far, Trump has authorized the incremental back-and-forth that often defines high-stakes international dealmaking, dispatching his envoys Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to foreign compounds to exchange papers with Iranian diplomats through an Omani intermediary.
But Trump is also wary of being “tapped along” by an Iranian regime looking to play for time, according to people familiar with his thinking. His allies have warned him that could be Iran’s intent, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that argument in an urgently scheduled meeting last week.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, right, meets with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, center, and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner ahead of the indirect US-Iran talks, in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 17, 2026.
Oman’s Ministry Of Foreign Affairs/Reuters
Trump is also acutely aware that every passing day without US military action is another day further from his initial promise — now nearly two months old — that he was coming to the assistance of Iranian protesters.
As the talks proceed, Trump has offered only loose deadlines.
“I guess over the next month, something like that,” he said when asked last Thursday if he envisioned a timeline. “Yeah, it shouldn’t take, I mean, it should happen quickly.”
Quickly, in diplomatic terms, can be relative. That is especially true when discussing the highly technical particulars of uranium enrichment, which in previous negotiations required the participation of nuclear physicists.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the Obama-era deal that Trump harshly criticized as too weak on Iran and ultimately withdrew from — took more than two years of painstaking negotiations to finalize. Trump’s own grinding negotiations with the Iranians early last year lasted months before eventually falling apart, resulting in US military strikes on Iran’s uranium enrichment sites over the summer.
Administration officials believe Iran is now more motivated to agree to a deal than in the past because of the dire state of its economy, strangled by western sanctions. The major US military buildup Trump has ordered around Iran is also intended to apply pressure.
Yet so far, the Iranians do not seem willing to immediately accede.
“This does not mean that we can reach an agreement quickly, but at least the path has begun,” Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday after noting the two sides agreed in their indirect talks to “move toward drafting the text of a possible agreement.”
Araghchi, who led Iran’s delegation in Geneva, said that no date had been set for future conversations. The American official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations, said the Iranians indicated they would “come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals” to address the gaps in their negotiating positions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, on the day he addresses a special session of the Conference on Disarmament at the United Nations, on the sidelines of US-Iran talks in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 17, 2026.
Pierre Albouy/Reuters
That timeframe would loosely align with the time it will take the USS Gerald R. Ford — the world’s largest aircraft carrier — to sail from the Caribbean Sea to the Middle East, where it will join the massive buildup of US military assets Trump has ordered to be ready for potential confrontation.
Meanwhile, the two sides have struggled to even agree on what is up for discussion.
Heading into Tuesday’s discussions, Tehran had insisted it would only discuss its nuclear program as part of a deal that would lift sanctions and avoid a war with the United States. But some Trump administration officials, and Israel, say any deal must be more expansive, to include Iran’s ballistic missiles and its support for regional militant groups.
Vance, in the Fox interview, suggested it was the nuclear file that took precedence.
“There are a lot of ways in which they endanger America’s national security, but the most important way they could is if they acquired a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Some regional diplomats have floated a broader agreement that pairs concessions on the nuclear program and commitments on nonaggression with possible business deals, including granting the US privileged access to developing Iran’s oil, gas and rare earths resources, one source said.
Such an agreement would align with Trump’s interests in brokering grand deals that contain an economic upside for the United States. Still, if past negotiations with Iran are any guide, it is the technicalities of the nuclear concessions that will still prove to be the major hurdle.
Iran has signaled some willingness to make compromises on its nuclear program, which it has always insisted is intended for peaceful purposes. That includes offers to dilute its 60%-enriched uranium, which is a short technical step away from becoming weapons-grade, or temporarily suspend enrichment for up to three years, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Another possibility would be shipping its highly-enriched material to a third country, potentially Russia, as it did in the 2015 Obama-era deal.
Trump, however, continued to insist over the weekend that the US “doesn’t want any enrichment,” suggesting the US will not settle for a deal that allows even low-level uranium enrichment by Iran. That would seem to be a stubborn sticking point, given Iran’s longstanding position that enrichment is their right. But hardline positions going into negotiations can always change.
Lingering uncertainties around what the US might hope to achieve through military action in Iran may also motivate Trump to allow extended negotiations.
“The question (is) what happens to Iran the day after. If they had a clear answer to that, I think we already would have seen a military strike,” said Amos Hochstein, a special US envoy under President Joe Biden. “But all these talks and sending more military equipment is to gain time to figure that question out.”
“They’re going to have enough military equipment there, and personnel, very soon to be able to do whatever they feel they need to do,” Hochstein said. “The question is, is it wise to do it or not?”
Ultimately, whatever Iran agrees to will have to be approved by the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has both maintained a hardline on the nuclear issue and issued threats against the United States amid the military buildup.
“More dangerous than the American warship is the weapon that can send it to the bottom of the sea,” he said, ominously, ahead of Tuesday’s talks.
American officials say getting Khamenei’s sign-off would be the most difficult part of any negotiation, and that dealing with lower-level envoys that lack his authority has the effect of prolonging talks.
Trump, meanwhile, said last week that regime change in Iran — presumably including Khamenei’s ouster — would be the “best thing that could happen.”