2026-05-08 04:03:26 / 路透社
作者：露西娅·穆蒂卡尼
2026年5月8日 美国东部时间凌晨4:03 更新于3小时前
2025年8月1日，美国加利福尼亚州恩西尼塔斯，一家本地商铺外张贴着“招聘中”标识。当时美国7月就业增长远超预期放缓。路透社/迈克·布莱克
- 内容摘要
- 市场预测4月非农就业人数将增加6.2万
- 预计增长放缓主要反映出天气转暖带来的提振效应消退以及罢工工人返岗因素消失
- 失业率料维持在4.3%，但可能四舍五入至4.2%
华盛顿，5月8日（路透社）——随着暖冬天气带来的就业提振以及医疗行业罢工工人返岗的效应消退，美国4月就业增长或有所放缓，但这并不意味着劳动力市场状况出现实质性变化，预计失业率将维持在4.3%。
路透社对经济学家的调查显示，市场密切关注的美国劳工部周五发布的就业报告还预计显示，上月薪资增长有所回升，这将进一步强化金融市场预期，即美联储将在2027年前维持利率不变。经济学家表示，现在判断美以与伊朗冲突的影响显现还为时过早。
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劳动力市场一直处于经济学家和政策制定者所称的“慢招聘、慢裁员”状态。这种停滞不前的局面被归咎于唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易和移民政策，以及近期的中东冲突，该冲突推高了汽油和柴油价格，以及通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的其他大宗商品成本。
“现状仍将维持，我们没有足够的时间让这场战争改变劳动力需求，而劳动力需求通常在实际招聘前数月就已确定，”RGS首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏埃拉斯说道。“美联储将关注薪资数据……最重要的是失业率，这将印证新的共识，即今年不会因劳动力市场疲软而降息。”
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路透社对经济学家的调查预测，继3月非农就业人数反弹增加17.8万后，上月非农就业人数或增加6.2万。预测区间从减少1.5万到增加15万不等。自2025年年中以来，非农就业人数波动剧烈，涨跌交替。
经济学家将部分波动归因于今年对企业生死模型的调整，该模型由美国政府用于估算特定月份因企业开业或倒闭带来的就业增减。部分人士表示，企业创建数量的大幅波动使得编制就业报告的美国劳工统计局难以估算新创企业带来的就业增长。
天气、罢工、政府裁员，以及特朗普政府打击无证移民导致劳动力大军出现重大变化，也加剧了就业数据的波动性。经济学家建议关注三个月移动平均就业数据，以更准确地把握劳动力市场状况。
“剔除近几个月的波动后，就业增长仍将处于温和正值区间，”花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克说道。“考虑到移民流动发生重大变化，导致今年平均就业增速大幅放缓，仅凭这一点并不令人担忧。”
今年第一季度，就业增长平均每月6.8万。经济学家估计，美国经济每月需要创造0至5万个就业岗位，才能跟上劳动年龄人口增长的步伐。由于所谓的收支平衡就业增长水平远低于往年，经济学家预计即使就业增长大幅放缓，失业率也不会出现飙升。
乡村医院纷纷倒闭
医疗保健和社会援助行业可能仍是上月就业增长的主要推动力，这反映了人口老龄化趋势，但增长步伐已经放缓。
“《平价医疗法案》补贴中断、多个州对医疗补助计划施加限制、关税上涨，以及针对外籍医生和护士的H-1B签证成本飙升，都构成了不利因素，”毕马威首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克说道。“乡村和贫困城区的医院最依赖H-1B签证医生和护士填补职位空缺。他们负担不起新的10万美元签证费用。许多乡村医院已经倒闭。”
由于企业提前下单以应对中东冲突带来的价格上涨和供应短缺，制造业活动上升，制造业就业人数可能进一步增加。政府就业人数预计将再次下降，过去12个月中有9个月出现下滑，原因是白宫寻求缩减联邦政府规模。不过部分机构正推动恢复人员编制。
薪资增长或有所回升，预计平均时薪将增长0.3%，3月时为增长0.2%。这将使薪资年度增幅从3月的3.5%回升至3.8%。尽管名义薪资走强与劳动力市场稳定相符，但部分经济学家指出，这在一定程度上是由工作周缩短推动的。
3月平均每周工作时长从2月的34.3小时下滑至34.2小时。4月该数据预计维持在34.2小时不变。
“这一迹象表明，强劲的就业增长更多反映了技术层面因素，而非经济活动和劳动力需求的真正回暖，”花旗集团的克拉克说道。
高通胀正在侵蚀薪资上涨的成果，目前汽油价格已突破每加仑4.5美元。
因此，部分经济学家表示，劳动力市场的稳定掩盖了经济中的裂痕，低收入家庭正难以维持生计。经济增长主要由高收入家庭支撑，他们的财富因股市上涨而增加。
“收入底层的民众一直在受苦，并且开始削减开支，”洛约拉马利蒙特大学金融与经济学教授成元孙说道。“如果收入上层的民众也有同样感受，经济将陷入困境。”
露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；安德里亚·里奇编辑
本机构遵循《汤森路透信托原则》发布报道。
US job growth likely slowed in April as boost from temporary factors fades
2026-05-08 04:03:26 / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
May 8, 2026 4:03 AM UTC Updated 3 hours ago
A “now hiring” sign is displayed on a local business after, U.S.employment growth slowed more than expected in July, in Encinitas, California, U.S. August 1, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake
- Nonfarm payrolls forecast increasing 62,000 in April
- Anticipated slowdown largely reflects fading boost from warmer weather and return of striking workers
- Unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.3%, but could round down to 4.2%
WASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) – U.S. job growth likely slowed in April as the boost from warmer weather and return of striking health workers faded, but that would not signal a material change in labor market conditions, with the unemployment rate expected to have held steady at 4.3%.
The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is also projected to show wage growth picking up last month, which would further reinforce financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged into 2027. Economists said it was too early for the effects of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show.
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The labor market has been stuck in what economists and policymakers have called a “slow hire, slow fire” zone. The paralysis has been blamed on President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies, and lately the war, which has raised gasoline and diesel prices as well as the cost of other commodities that are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The status quo holds, we haven’t had sufficient time for the war to dislodge demand for labor, which is typically determined months in advance of actual hiring,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “The Fed will take a look at the earnings … and most importantly the unemployment rate, and it will confirm the new consensus, which is we are not going to get rate cuts based on weakness in the labor market this year.”
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Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 62,000 jobs last month after rebounding 178,000 in March, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. Estimates ranged from a loss of 15,000 jobs to a gain of 150,000 positions. Payrolls have been choppy since mid-2025, alternating between gains and losses.
Economists have attributed part of the volatility to an adjustment this year to the birth-and-death model, which the government uses to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month. Some said a large turnover in firms created was making it hard for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the employment report, to estimate job creation associated with new companies.
Weather, strikes and government job cuts as well as big changes to the labor force as the Trump administration cracks down on undocumented immigrants have also added to volatility. Economists recommended looking at the three-month moving average of payrolls to get a better picture of the labor market.
“Averaging through recent months would still imply modestly positive job growth,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. “This alone would not be concerning given substantial change in immigration flows that have led to a much lower average pace of job growth this year.”
Job growth averaged 68,000 per month in the first quarter. Economists estimated that the economy needed to create between zero and 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. With the so-called breakeven level of job growth much lower than in prior years, economists did not expect a surge in the unemployment rate, even if employment gains slowed considerably.
RURAL HOSPITALS ARE CLOSING DOWN
The healthcare and social assistance sectors likely continued to dominate employment growth last month, reflecting an aging population, though the pace of gains has slowed.
“A lapse in subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, curbs on Medicaid in many states, tariffs and a jump in the cost of H-1B visas for immigrant doctors and nurses are headwinds,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “Rural and poor urban hospitals rely most on H-1B doctors and nurses to fill open positions. They cannot afford the new $100,000 fee for visas. Many rural hospitals have already closed.”
Manufacturing payrolls likely increased further amid a rise in activity linked to businesses frontloading orders in anticipation of higher prices and shortages from the Middle East conflict. Another decline is expected in government payrolls, which have dropped in nine of the past 12 months as the White House seeks to reduce the federal government footprint. But there is a push in some agencies to rebuild staff levels.
Wage growth is likely to have picked up, with average hourly earnings projected to have risen 0.3% after gaining 0.2% in March. That would lift the annual increase in wages back to 3.8% from 3.5% in March. While the strength in nominal wages would be consistent with a stable labor market, some economists pointed out it was partly driven by a shorter workweek.
The average workweek slipped to 34.2 hours in March from 34.3 hours in February. It was likely unchanged at 34.2 hours in April.
“This is one piece of evidence suggesting strong job growth is more reflective of technical factors than a true pick-up in activity and demand for workers,” said Citigroup’s Clark.
Stronger wages are being eroded by high inflation, with gasoline prices breaking above $4.50 a gallon.
As a result, some economists said labor-market stability was masking cracks in the economy, with lower-income households struggling to make ends meet. The economy is mostly being supported by higher-income households, whose wealth has been boosted by the stock market.
“People in the low end of the income spectrum have been suffering and cutting back,” said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. “If people at the upper end of the income spectrum were to feel a similar way, the economy would be in trouble.”
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.