2026-05-08T22:27:07.871Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：扎卡里·科恩、娜塔莎·伯特伦、吉姆·斯奎托
发布时间：2026年5月8日，美国东部时间下午6:27
资料图：伊朗最高领袖穆赫塔巴·哈梅内伊于2018年7月22日在伊朗德黑兰出席会议。梅赫迪·加塞米/伊朗学生通讯社/西亚新闻社
梅赫迪·加塞米/瓦纳通讯社/路透社/资料图
据多名熟悉该情报的消息人士透露，美国情报评估认为，伊朗新任最高领袖正与伊朗高级官员一道，在塑造战争战略方面发挥关键作用。报告显示，在这个如今已陷入分裂的政权中，精确的权力边界仍不明确，但穆赫塔巴·哈梅内伊很可能正在指导伊朗如何与美国进行谈判以结束战争。
自战争爆发初期遭遇袭击、其父及多名该国顶级军事领导人遇袭身亡后，哈梅内伊本人也身受重伤，此后便再未公开露面，引发了外界对其健康状况以及其在伊朗领导层结构中角色的猜测。
据消息人士称，特朗普政府仍在寻求以外交途径结束冲突，目前停火已持续超过一个月。美国情报评估显示，伊朗仍在从美国的空袭中恢复，美方空袭并未彻底摧毁伊朗重要军事能力，伊朗仍有能力在美军长达数月的封锁中存续。
消息人士透露，哈梅内伊在遇袭受伤数日后被宣布接任其父成为伊朗新任最高领袖，但迄今为止，美国情报界尚未能通过视觉手段确认其行踪。
其中一名消息人士补充说，这种不确定性部分源于哈梅内伊不使用任何电子设备进行通讯，仅与亲自前来探望他的人互动，或通过信使传递信息。
消息人士还称，哈梅内伊目前仍处于隔离状态，正在接受伤势治疗，其身体一侧严重烧伤，影响到面部、手臂、躯干和腿部。
伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安本周早些时候对伊朗国家媒体表示，他与哈梅内伊举行了一场为时两个半小时的会议，这是有记录以来首次有伊朗高级官员与该国新任最高领袖进行面对面会晤。
熟悉相关情报的消息人士称，美国官员对哈梅内伊状况的了解，均来自与他进行沟通的人员提供的信息。不过，情报分析师中存在一些疑问：伊朗权力结构中的某些人是否可能声称能接触哈梅内伊，以攫取其权威来推行自身议程。
根据美国情报报告，这场战争削弱了伊朗的军事能力，但并未将其摧毁。美国有线电视新闻网此前曾报道，美国情报评估认为伊朗约一半的导弹发射器在美国空袭中幸存下来。据熟悉该情报的消息人士透露，最近的一份报告将这一比例上调至三分之二，部分原因是持续的停火让伊朗有时间挖出可能在先前袭击中被掩埋的发射器。
另有消息人士称，中央情报局的一份单独报告发现，伊朗在经济完全崩溃前，或可再承受长达四个月的美国封锁。《华盛顿邮报》最先报道了中情局的这一评估结果。尽管目前处于停火状态，但美伊两国军事力量近日仍有交火，霍尔木兹海峡的航运几乎完全停滞，双方均宣称控制该水道。
当被问及中情局的评估结果时，一名高级情报官员告诉CNN：“总统的封锁正在造成真正的、日益加剧的损害——切断贸易、摧毁收入，并加速系统性经济崩溃。伊朗的军事力量已严重受损，海军被摧毁，其领导人也在躲藏。剩下的只有政权对平民苦难的漠视——让本国人民挨饿，以延长一场他们早已输掉的战争。”
国家情报总监办公室将相关问题转交白宫处理。
“尽管‘史诗怒火行动’取得巨大成功，美国国力日益增强，但得益于‘经济怒火行动’、军事封锁以及政权内部的分裂，伊朗的实力日益削弱，这阻碍了伊朗向美国谈判代表提出统一方案的能力，”白宫发言人安娜·凯利对CNN表示，“现在比以往任何时候都更清楚的是，特朗普总统掌握着所有主动权，他的国家安全团队正致力于彻底终结伊朗的核野心。我们不会对情报相关事务置评。”
尽管美国情报评估显示哈梅内伊参与制定了伊朗通过外交途径结束战争的谈判战略，但一名熟悉最新情报的消息人士告诉CNN，有证据表明他实际上已相当脱离决策流程，仅能偶尔接触。
该消息人士补充称，因此，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的高级官员实际上与伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫一道，负责日常运作。另一名熟悉美国情报评估的消息人士称：“没有迹象表明他一直在下达命令，但也没有证据证明他没有这么做。”
消息人士称，关于哈梅内伊的健康状况及其在如今四分五裂的伊朗政权中的地位的疑问，给特朗普政府带来了挑战，因为美国高级官员仍在暗示，目前尚不清楚谁拥有真正谈判结束冲突的权力。
“他们的体制仍然高度分裂，而且功能失调，这可能会成为阻碍，”美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥周五在讨论伊朗对特朗普政府最新结束战争提案的预期回应时表示。
美国-以色列行动导致哈梅内伊之父及其他伊朗高级官员遇袭身亡，其后续影响早在唐纳德·特朗普总统决定发动这场冲突前就已被美国情报评估所预见——当时的评估认为，击毙前最高领袖不太可能推翻该政权。一名消息人士称：“即便你除掉这位阿亚图拉，他的继任者也全都是强硬派。”这一说法呼应了多名消息人士所述的美国情报预测结果：伊朗政府将主要由伊斯兰革命卫队及其他与被清除人员意识形态一致的人物掌控。
特朗普自老哈梅内伊遇袭身亡后便一直吹嘘称，伊朗已发生政权更迭，并将目前代表德黑兰进行谈判的人员描述为“通情达理之人”。
“我们打交道的是一群前所未见的人，”他在今年3月说道。
国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦兹此前曾告诉CNN，无论新任最高领袖是否能够主导谈判，“该体制都在利用他来对重大宽泛决策获得最终批准，而非谈判策略。”
“该体制刻意强调穆赫塔巴的参与，因为这能为其提供一道免受内部批评的保护盾……不像他父亲那样会经常公开就谈判状况发表评论，”他补充道，“穆赫塔巴已失踪，因此将观点归咎于他，是伊朗谈判人员免受批评的绝佳掩护。”
一名熟悉近期美国情报评估的消息人士也认同这一观点，将围绕哈梅内伊地位的不确定性描述为“‘绿野仙踪’遇上‘周末的伯尼》”。
即便如此，特朗普政府对谈判解决方案的追求仍受到阻碍——多名消息人士称，美国对伊朗的思维方式以及对威胁的反应存在根本性误解，无论掌权者是谁。
据一名熟悉相关讨论的消息人士透露，上个月在伊斯兰堡举行首轮会谈前，副总统J·D·万斯曾向部分海湾合作伙伴寻求见解，了解剩余的伊朗政治和军事领导人中谁有权与美国谈判，以及如何最好地与他们打交道。
当时，至少一个海湾国家的官员告诉万斯，加利巴夫被认为拥有这一权力，比伊斯兰革命卫队和政府政治派系的其他顶级伊朗人物更具话语权。加利巴夫率领代表团在伊斯兰堡与美国举行了首轮谈判，如今被视为代表伊朗伊斯兰共和国的主要人物之一。
这位曾参与镇压亲改革派学生抗议活动的前伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官，已成为伊朗少数既能与穿西装的外交官打交道，又能与穿作战服的士兵沟通的政客之一。
但即便如此，万斯还是带着未达成任何协议的结果离开了伊斯兰堡的首轮会谈，原定于巴基斯坦举行的第二轮会谈最终未能兑现。特朗普将会谈破裂归咎于伊朗政府“严重分裂”，并延长了为期两周的停火，允许伊朗领导人有时间制定“统一方案”。
在随后的几周里，特朗普政府坚称两国之间的停火仍在持续，特朗普已无限期延长停火，截至周五，伊朗正在审查美国的最新提案。
CNN的詹妮弗·汉斯勒为本报道贡献了内容。
Iran’s injured supreme leader out of public view but still shaping strategy, US intel assesses
2026-05-08T22:27:07.871Z / CNN
By Zachary Cohen, Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto
PUBLISHED May 8, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
FILE PHOTO: Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, attends a meeting in Tehran, Iran, July 22, 2018. Mehdi Ghasemi/ISNA/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
Mehdi Ghasemi/Wana News Agency/Reuters/File
US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence. The reports found that precise authority within a now-fractured regime remains unclear, but that Mojtaba Khamenei is likely helping direct how Iran is managing negotiations with the US to end the war.
Khamenei has not been seen in public since he sustained serious injuries during an attack that killed his father and several of the country’s top military leaders at the beginning of the war, leading to speculation about his health and role in the Iranian leadership structure.
The Trump administration continues to pursue a diplomatic end to the conflict as a ceasefire stretches past a month with US intelligence assessing that Iran continues to dig out from the US bombing campaign that left significant Iranian military capabilities intact and the ability to survive months more of an American blockade, according to sources.
Khamenei was announced as Iran’s new supreme leader replacing his father days after the strike that injured him, but to date the US intelligence community has not been able to visually confirm his whereabouts, the sources said.
Part of the uncertainty stems from Khamenei not using any electronics to communicate, instead only interacting with those who can visit him in-person or by sending messages via a courier, one of the sources added.
Khamenei remains isolated as he continues to receive medical treatment for his injuries, including bad burns on one side of his body impacting his face, arm, torso, leg, the sources added.
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told Iranian state media earlier this week that he had held a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Khamenei, marking the first reported in-person meeting between a top Iranian official and the country’s new supreme leader.
What US officials do know about Khamenei’s status is based on information picked up from those who are communicating with him, the sources familiar said. There is, however, some question among intelligence analysts as to whether some in Iran’s power structure might be claiming access to Khamenei to co-opt his authority to push their own agendas.
The war has degraded Iran’s military capabilities, but not destroyed them, according to US intelligence reports. CNN previously reported that US intelligence assessed that roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers had survived US strikes. A recent report increased that figure to two thirds partially due to the ongoing ceasefire providing Iran with time to dig out launchers that might have been buried in previous strikes, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.
A separate CIA report found that Iran can likely last up to four more months of the ongoing American blockade without complete destabilization of its economy, the sources said. The Washington Post was first to report on the CIA assessment. US and Iranian military forces have traded shots in recent days, despite an ongoing ceasefire, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near stop with both sides claiming control of the waterway.
Asked about the CIA assessment, a senior intelligence official told CNN, “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage—severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse. Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding. What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering—starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.”
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence directed questions to the White House.
“While the United States grows stronger following the tremendous success of Operation Epic Fury, Iran has grown weaker by the day thanks to the overpowering effects of Operation Economic Fury, the military blockade, and fracturing among the regime, which has hindered Iran’s ability to present unified proposals to American negotiators,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CNN. “It’s clearer than ever that President Trump holds all the cards as his national security team works to end Iran’s nuclear dreams for good. We do not comment on matters of intelligence.”
While US intelligence assessments indicate that Khamenei is involved in helping develop Iran’s negotiating strategy for a diplomatic end to the war, one source familiar with the latest information told CNN there is evidence he is fairly removed from the decision-making process and only sporadically accessible.
As a result, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials are essentially running the day-to-day operations along with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the source added. “There is no indication he is actually giving orders on any ongoing basis but nothing proving he is not,” a second source familiar with the US intelligence assessments said, referring to Khamenei.
Questions about Khamenei’s health and standing within the now-fractured Iranian regime have posed a challenge for the Trump administration as top US officials continue to suggest it is unclear who now maintains the authority to actually negotiate an end to the conflict, the sources said.
“Their system is still highly fractured, and it’s dysfunctional as well, so that may be serving as an impediment,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday while discussing Iran’s anticipated response to the Trump administration’s latest proposal for ending the war.
The fallout from US-Israeli operations that killed Khamenei’s father and other senior Iranian officials was largely foreshadowed by US intelligence assessments prior to President Donald Trump’s decision to start the conflict – which found that killing the prior supreme leader would be unlikely to topple the regime. “Even if you remove the ayatollah, his successors are all hardliners, too,” one source said, echoing what multiple sources described as the prediction outlined in US intelligence: an Iranian government largely controlled by the IRGC and other figures ideologically aligned with those who were eliminated.
Trump has boasted since the killing of the elder Khamenei that Iran has undergone regime change and described those now negotiating on behalf of Tehran as “reasonable.”
“We’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before,” he said in March.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, previously told CNN that whether or not the new supreme leader was in a position to help lead talks, “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions and not (for) the tactics for the negotiations.”
“The system does deliberately highlight Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a protective shield for that against internal criticism… unlike his father who would come out regularly and comment on the state of negotiations,” he added. “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing views to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”
One of the sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments echoed that view, characterizing the uncertainty around Khamenei’s status as “’Wizard of Oz’ meets ‘Weekend at Bernie’s.’”
Even so, the Trump administration’s pursuit of a negotiated resolution has been hamstrung by what multiple sources described as a fundamental misunderstanding of how the Iranians think and respond to threats – regardless of who is in charge.
Prior to the first round of talks in Islamabad last month, Vice President JD Vance sought insight from some Gulf partners about who among the remaining Iranian political and military leaders had the authority to negotiate with the US and how to best deal with them, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
At the time, officials from at least one Gulf country told Vance that Ghalibaf was considered the person who had that authority, more so than other top Iranian figures in the IRGC and political wing of the government. Ghalibaf led the first round of negotiations with the US in Islamabad and is now viewed as one of the main figures representing the Islamic Republic.
The former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander – who was involved in crushing pro-reform student protests – has emerged as one of Iran’s few politicians capable of dealing with both suit-wearing diplomats and soldiers in battle fatigues.
But even so, Vance left those initial talks in Islamabad without an agreement in hand and an announced second round of talks in Pakistan ultimately failed to materialize. Trump attributed the collapse to Iran’s government being “seriously fractured” and extended a two-week ceasefire to allow Iranian leaders time to formulate a “unified proposal.”
In the weeks that followed, the Trump administration has maintained that the ceasefire between the two countries continues to hold, with Trump extending the ceasefire indefinitely and Iran reviewing a latest American proposal as of Friday.
CNN’s Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.
