伊朗受伤最高领袖未公开露面，但仍在影响战略：美国情报评估

Iran’s injured supreme leader out of public view but still shaping strategy, US intel assesses

2026-05-08T22:27:07.871Z / CNN

By Zachary Cohen, Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto

PUBLISHED May 8, 2026, 6:27 PM ET

FILE PHOTO: Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, attends a meeting in Tehran, Iran, July 22, 2018. Mehdi Ghasemi/ISNA/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Mehdi Ghasemi/Wana News Agency/Reuters/File

US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence. The reports found that precise authority within a now-fractured regime remains unclear, but that Mojtaba Khamenei is likely helping direct how Iran is managing negotiations with the US to end the war.

Khamenei has not been seen in public since he sustained serious injuries during an attack that killed his father and several of the country’s top military leaders at the beginning of the war, leading to speculation about his health and role in the Iranian leadership structure.

The Trump administration continues to pursue a diplomatic end to the conflict as a ceasefire stretches past a month with US intelligence assessing that Iran continues to dig out from the US bombing campaign that left significant Iranian military capabilities intact and the ability to survive months more of an American blockade, according to sources.

Khamenei was announced as Iran’s new supreme leader replacing his father days after the strike that injured him, but to date the US intelligence community has not been able to visually confirm his whereabouts, the sources said.

Part of the uncertainty stems from Khamenei not using any electronics to communicate, instead only interacting with those who can visit him in-person or by sending messages via a courier, one of the sources added.

Khamenei remains isolated as he continues to receive medical treatment for his injuries, including bad burns on one side of his body impacting his face, arm, torso, leg, the sources added.

Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told Iranian state media earlier this week that he had held a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Khamenei, marking the first reported in-person meeting between a top Iranian official and the country’s new supreme leader.

What US officials do know about Khamenei’s status is based on information picked up from those who are communicating with him, the sources familiar said. There is, however, some question among intelligence analysts as to whether some in Iran’s power structure might be claiming access to Khamenei to co-opt his authority to push their own agendas.

The war has degraded Iran’s military capabilities, but not destroyed them, according to US intelligence reports. CNN previously reported that US intelligence assessed that roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers had survived US strikes. A recent report increased that figure to two thirds partially due to the ongoing ceasefire providing Iran with time to dig out launchers that might have been buried in previous strikes, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.

A separate CIA report found that Iran can likely last up to four more months of the ongoing American blockade without complete destabilization of its economy, the sources said. The Washington Post was first to report on the CIA assessment. US and Iranian military forces have traded shots in recent days, despite an ongoing ceasefire, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near stop with both sides claiming control of the waterway.

Asked about the CIA assessment, a senior intelligence official told CNN, “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage—severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse. Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding. What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering—starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.”

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence directed questions to the White House.

“While the United States grows stronger following the tremendous success of Operation Epic Fury, Iran has grown weaker by the day thanks to the overpowering effects of Operation Economic Fury, the military blockade, and fracturing among the regime, which has hindered Iran’s ability to present unified proposals to American negotiators,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CNN. “It’s clearer than ever that President Trump holds all the cards as his national security team works to end Iran’s nuclear dreams for good. We do not comment on matters of intelligence.”

While US intelligence assessments indicate that Khamenei is involved in helping develop Iran’s negotiating strategy for a diplomatic end to the war, one source familiar with the latest information told CNN there is evidence he is fairly removed from the decision-making process and only sporadically accessible.

As a result, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials are essentially running the day-to-day operations along with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the source added. “There is no indication he is actually giving orders on any ongoing basis but nothing proving he is not,” a second source familiar with the US intelligence assessments said, referring to Khamenei.

Questions about Khamenei’s health and standing within the now-fractured Iranian regime have posed a challenge for the Trump administration as top US officials continue to suggest it is unclear who now maintains the authority to actually negotiate an end to the conflict, the sources said.

“Their system is still highly fractured, and it’s dysfunctional as well, so that may be serving as an impediment,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday while discussing Iran’s anticipated response to the Trump administration’s latest proposal for ending the war.

The fallout from US-Israeli operations that killed Khamenei’s father and other senior Iranian officials was largely foreshadowed by US intelligence assessments prior to President Donald Trump’s decision to start the conflict – which found that killing the prior supreme leader would be unlikely to topple the regime. “Even if you remove the ayatollah, his successors are all hardliners, too,” one source said, echoing what multiple sources described as the prediction outlined in US intelligence: an Iranian government largely controlled by the IRGC and other figures ideologically aligned with those who were eliminated.

Trump has boasted since the killing of the elder Khamenei that Iran has undergone regime change and described those now negotiating on behalf of Tehran as “reasonable.”

“We’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before,” he said in March.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, previously told CNN that whether or not the new supreme leader was in a position to help lead talks, “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions and not (for) the tactics for the negotiations.”

“The system does deliberately highlight Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a protective shield for that against internal criticism… unlike his father who would come out regularly and comment on the state of negotiations,” he added. “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing views to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”

One of the sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments echoed that view, characterizing the uncertainty around Khamenei’s status as “’Wizard of Oz’ meets ‘Weekend at Bernie’s.’”

Even so, the Trump administration’s pursuit of a negotiated resolution has been hamstrung by what multiple sources described as a fundamental misunderstanding of how the Iranians think and respond to threats – regardless of who is in charge.

Prior to the first round of talks in Islamabad last month, Vice President JD Vance sought insight from some Gulf partners about who among the remaining Iranian political and military leaders had the authority to negotiate with the US and how to best deal with them, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

At the time, officials from at least one Gulf country told Vance that Ghalibaf was considered the person who had that authority, more so than other top Iranian figures in the IRGC and political wing of the government. Ghalibaf led the first round of negotiations with the US in Islamabad and is now viewed as one of the main figures representing the Islamic Republic.

The former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander – who was involved in crushing pro-reform student protests – has emerged as one of Iran’s few politicians capable of dealing with both suit-wearing diplomats and soldiers in battle fatigues.

But even so, Vance left those initial talks in Islamabad without an agreement in hand and an announced second round of talks in Pakistan ultimately failed to materialize. Trump attributed the collapse to Iran’s government being “seriously fractured” and extended a two-week ceasefire to allow Iranian leaders time to formulate a “unified proposal.”

In the weeks that followed, the Trump administration has maintained that the ceasefire between the two countries continues to hold, with Trump extending the ceasefire indefinitely and Iran reviewing a latest American proposal as of Friday.

CNN’s Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.