2026年4月3日 上午10:04 UTC / 路透社
作者：刘易斯·克劳斯科普夫
2026年4月3日 上午10:04 UTC 更新于1小时前
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2026年4月2日，交易员在美国纽约证券交易所场内工作。路透社/吉娜·穆恩 购买授权，将在新标签页打开
摘要
企业
标普500指数在2022年以来最差季度后实现周涨幅
- 3月CPI报告将于4月10日发布，预计将显现油价飙升的部分影响
- 达美航空、星座品牌即将发布财报，更多一季度业绩报告将于本月晚些时候公布
纽约，4月3日（路透社）—— 下周三将发布通胀最新数据和首批企业财报，这些数据或将开始显现中东战争对美国经济和美国企业的影响，投资者也希望能逐步摆脱这场已扰乱市场的冲突。
交易员们正纠结于这场爆发一个多月的战争可能逐步平息的矛盾信号，此前美国和以色列对伊朗发动了军事打击。
路透社《伊朗简报》新闻通讯将为您带来伊朗局势的最新进展和分析，点击此处订阅。
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标普500指数（.SPX）在假期缩短的交易周内实现上涨，终结了连续五周的下跌。本周早些时候，该基准指数收出2022年以来表现最差的季度，自2月底以来，战争及由此导致的能源价格上涨一直压制股指表现。
“很难让市场的注意力从中东局势、油价以及浮现的风险上移开，”恒康金融投资公司联席首席投资策略师马修·米斯金表示，“市场一直极度短视地聚焦于地缘政治风险，以及所有这些因素将如何发展。”
今年以来股市持续下跌，对人工智能 disruption（此处保留原文术语，标准译法为“颠覆”）和私人信贷疲软的担忧，叠加中东冲突带来的不确定性。标普500指数较1月底的历史高点累计下跌近6%。
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战争对石油供应和能源价格的影响仍是投资者关注的焦点，尤其是霍尔木兹海峡的局势——这条中东石油运输的关键航道已陷入停航。美国原油价格周四突破每桶110美元，此前本周早些时候，油价曾自2022年以来首次收于每桶100美元上方。
“市场正跟着油价走，”财富增强集团副首席投资官道格·休伯表示，“通胀预期、债券市场——所有因素都与油价走势紧密绑定。”
标普500指数年初至今表现
CPI将走高，加油站高油价持续
下周发布的消费者物价指数（CPI）是广受关注的通胀指标，将成为这场战争引发的能源冲击的首个试金石。今年以来美国原油价格已上涨约90%，本周美国全国汽油均价突破每加仑4美元，为三年多来首次。
“我们认为，油价上涨的第一阶段传导将通过机动车燃料体现在3月CPI数据中，”法国巴黎银行在一份预览CPI报告的研报中表示。
截至周四的路透社调查显示，市场预计4月10日发布的3月CPI环比将上涨0.9%。剔除能源和食品价格的核心CPI预计环比上涨0.3%。
米斯金表示，他将关注战争和能源价格上涨在其他商品和服务领域产生的“连锁反应”，同时补充称，3月报告可能还不足以显现更广泛的通胀影响。
“你只能尽可能获取实时数据，以此判断通胀和经济增长的趋势走向，”米斯金说道。
展示汽油价格
一季度财报季将至，盈利预期乐观
战争引发的通胀担忧已让市场基本排除了今年降息的可能，而此前降息一直是许多看涨股市逻辑的关键支撑。
“市场已经满脑子都是通胀了，”麦迪逊投资公司首席投资策略师帕特里克·瑞安表示。如果CPI数据“意外大幅走高，市场也会对此做出负面反应”。
下周还将发布另一项通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数，但该PCE数据覆盖的是2月，这一时间点基本在战争爆发之前。此外，美国第四季度经济增长的最新数据也将发布，投资者还将分析周三发布的美联储3月会议纪要，从中寻找利率未来走向的线索。
财报季的序幕也将开始吸引华尔街的注意力，投资者寄望于强劲的整体企业盈利前景，为今年美国股市提供支撑。达美航空（DAL.N）和饮料制造商星座品牌（STZ.N）等企业将于下周发布财报。
这些财报将揭开一季度财报季的序幕，正式财报季将于下周全面开启。根据路孚特IBES的数据，标普500成分股公司整体一季度盈利预计将较去年同期增长14.4%。
“4月中旬开启的一季度财报季应能显示， underlying earnings growth（此处保留原文术语，标准译法为“ underlying盈利增长”，即核心盈利增长）仍在增强且范围不断扩大，”德意志银行股票策略师在一份研报中表示。
本文由刘易斯·克劳斯科普夫报道，科林·巴尔编辑
我们的报道准则：汤森路透信托原则，将在新标签页打开
Wall St Week Ahead Inflation in focus for markets jostled by Middle East war signals
2026-04-03 10:04 AM UTC / Reuters
By Lewis Krauskopf
April 3, 2026 10:04 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 2, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Summary
Companies
S&P 500 posts weekly gain in wake of worst quarter since 2022
- March CPI report due April 10, expected to show some effects of oil surge
- Delta, Constellation Brands set to report, more Q1 results due later in month
NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) – A fresh read on inflation and initial company results next week could start to show the Middle East war’s effects on the U.S. economy and corporate America, as investors hope to start moving past a conflict that has consumed markets.
Traders were wrestling with conflicting signals about a potential winding down of the war that began over a month ago, with the U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran.
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The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab posted a gain in the holiday-shortened week, snapping a five-week streak of losses. The benchmark index earlier in the week closed its worst-performing quarter since 2022, weighed down since late February by the war and the resulting surge in energy prices.
“It’s going to be hard to get the market’s attention off the Middle East, oil prices and the risks that have emerged,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. “The markets have been so myopically focused on geopolitical risk and … how all this is going to shake out.”
Stocks have stumbled this year, with concerns about artificial-intelligence disruption and private credit weakness compounding uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 was last down nearly 6% from its late-January all-time high.
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The war’s impact on oil supplies and energy prices remained the focal point for investors, especially the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Middle East oil-shipping channel where traffic has stalled. U.S. crude topped $110 a barrel on Thursday after the commodity earlier in the week settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
“The market is pricing off oil,” said Doug Huber, deputy chief investment officer at Wealth Enhancement Group. “Inflation expectations, bond markets — everything is stuck to this concept of what oil is doing.”
S&P 500, year-to-date performance
CPI TO JUMP, HIGH PRICES AT THE PUMP
Next week’s consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, stands as an early test of the war’s energy shock. With U.S. crude jumping some 90% since the start of the year, the U.S. average gasoline price rose above $4 a gallon this week for the first time in more than three years.
“We think the first stage of oil price pass-through will have arrived in March via motor fuel,” BNP Paribas said in a note previewing the CPI report.
The March CPI report, due on April 10, is expected to have climbed 0.9% on a monthly basis, according to a Reuters poll as of Thursday. Excluding energy as well as food prices, the “core” CPI level is expected to have risen 0.3%.
Miskin said he would look for “ripple effects” across other goods and services stemming from the war and energy-price surge, while adding that the March report may be too soon to see any broader inflationary impact.
“You’re just trying to get as much real-time data as you can to formulate where the inflation and economic growth trends are going,” Miskin said.
Shows gasoline prices
Q1 RESULTS LOOM, WITH BIG PROFIT HOPES
War-driven inflation worries have led markets to largely rule out interest rate cuts this year, after such cuts had been a key underpinning for many bullish stock outlooks.
“The market already has inflation on the brain,” said Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison Investments. If CPI were to “surprise with a much higher print, that could also be something that the market would take negatively.”
Next week also brings the release of another inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, but that PCE data will cover February, a period largely before the war took hold. An updated read of fourth-quarter U.S. economic growth is also due, while investors will also analyze Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting for any clues about the future path of rates.
The start of earnings season also will start grabbing Wall Street’s attention, with investors counting on a broadly strong corporate profit outlook to support U.S. stocks this year. Delta Air Lines (DAL.N), opens new tab and beverage maker Constellation Brands (STZ.N), opens new tab are among those due to report next week.
Those reports will offer a taste of the first-quarter reporting season, which kicks off the following week. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to post a 14.4% rise in first-quarter earnings from the year-earlier period, according to LSEG IBES.
“The Q1 earnings season beginning in mid-April should show that underlying earnings growth is still strengthening and broadening,” Deutsche Bank equity strategists said in a note.
Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, editing by Colin Barr
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