2026-04-10T09:00:56.561Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
四月的平静即将被密集的初选季取代，争夺参议院控制权的斗争将愈发清晰。
本月没有任何初选举行，但各竞选活动的紧张程度正在升级。四大关键战场中的三个——佐治亚州、缅因州和密歇根州——都存在激烈的初选，这可能会影响参议院的席位格局。
各竞选团队目前正处于季度筹款报告期，这能让我们一瞥他们在这一关键阶段所拥有的支持度和资源。外部团体也开始在参议院各战场展现其支出实力。
与参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩结盟的超级政治行动委员会“参议院领导基金”（Senate Leadership Fund）宣布，将在八个关键州投入3.42亿美元，以维持共和党在参议院的多数席位。该团体计划投入2.36亿美元，用于保卫五个共和党现任议员的席位：俄亥俄州、北卡罗来纳州、缅因州、爱荷华州和阿拉斯加州。另有1.06亿美元将用于瞄准三个民主党现任议员的席位：密歇根州、佐治亚州和新罕布什尔州。
此次初始拨款未覆盖德克萨斯州：该州现任参议员约翰·康恩与州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿之间的初选局势混乱。
这笔提前划拨的资金让该超级PAC能够在夏季和秋季提前预订广告时段，避免临近11月时广告价格上涨。该委员会2025年底拥有约1亿美元现金储备，彰显了共和党可动用的庞大资源。筹款竞赛中的一大未知因素是支持前总统特朗普的顶级超级PAC“MAGA Inc.”，其手中握有超过3亿美元资金。
支持参议院民主党人的“参议院多数党PAC”（Senate Majority PAC）年底时在银行账户中存有3600万美元，但该团体尚未公布其11月选举的支出计划。“这份公告清楚表明共和党人感到紧张，仅此而已，”参议院多数党PAC发言人劳伦·弗伦奇说道，“他们的战场地图大幅扩张，我们看到了疲软的迹象：候选人不力、信息传递薄弱，以及支持率跌入谷底。”
尽管候选人在本州展开角逐，但中期选举的竞选氛围正日益笼罩在伊朗局势引发的战争背景之下，以及由此带来的经济不确定性中。
根据美国有线电视新闻网与SSRS最近联合开展的一项民调，民众对这场战争的普遍不满率已升至66%，仅有三分之一的公众认为总统唐纳德·特朗普有明确的应对方案。与此同时，选民最关注的总统经济表现支持率已降至其任期内的新低，仅为31%。
冲突爆发一个月以来，民主党已开始抓住美国人面临的经济痛点展开攻势，其中包括油价上涨。根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，本周美国平均汽油价格升至每加仑4.16美元，较战争爆发前上涨近40%。
目前脆弱的停火协议凸显了这场冲突的不确定性及其带来的经济影响——这些问题可能会给共和党在中期选举中的道路增添变数。与此同时，共和党急于强调，在今年的报税季，总统的“宏伟法案”带来的更高退税正涌入许多美国人的银行账户。
总体而言，两党都面临着对两党都持极度负面看法的美国选民。但在本届选举周期的这个阶段，民主党占据早期优势。如果今天举行国会选举，登记选民以6个百分点的优势表示会更支持民主党候选人，而非共和党候选人。
今年以来在特别选举中屡获胜利的民主党人乐观地认为，11月的选举环境将对他们有利。但他们要夺回多数席位需要拿下四个席位，而这需要进军一些坚定的共和党红州，道路复杂曲折。
以下是距离选举日还有七个月时，关键参议院席位的最新局势：
佐治亚州、缅因州和密歇根州即将举行的初选将决定各州大选的走向。在德克萨斯州，由于总统尚未明确表态，共和党正处于观望状态。爱荷华州的两名民主党人正激烈角逐，争取在11月拿下共和党占据的席位。
缅因州
缅因州的参议院初选迅速成为本届选举周期中竞争最激烈的民主党初选之一，这将决定民主党能否在11月推翻现任共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯的席位。
距离初选还有两个月，民主党籍州长珍妮特·米尔斯正急于给她的进步派对手格雷厄姆·普拉特纳贴上负面标签，寄希望于女性选民会认为普拉特纳过往的冒犯性言论不适合担任公职。米尔斯已经发布了三则针对普拉特纳的攻击广告，曝光他的争议言论，包括淡化军中性侵事件。
普拉特纳则发布自己的广告进行回击，承认人们对他的网络言论感到不安。“缅因州的选民们，我请求你们不要因为14年前我在互联网上说过的最糟糕的一句话就评判我，要看我今天的样子，”普拉特纳在广告中说道。
自这些电视广告播出以来，尚未有独立民调结果出炉，因此尚不清楚米尔斯的攻击策略能否在这场竞选中起到足够作用——作为牡蛎养殖户和退伍军人的普拉特纳此前一直领先。
普拉特纳在2025年最后一个季度的筹款额比米尔斯高出近200万美元。周三，米尔斯的竞选团队宣布她在今年第一季度筹集了270万美元。普拉特纳尚未公布同期的筹款数据。
在民调方面，2月的一项民调显示，普拉特纳在民主党初选中以超过30个百分点的优势领先米尔斯。同一项民调还显示，在假设的大选中，普拉特纳以11个百分点的优势领先柯林斯，而如果是米尔斯对阵柯林斯，则结果在误差范围内。
普拉特纳最近还获得了马萨诸塞州进步派参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦的背书，而参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默则表态支持米尔斯。
随着初选临近，共和党正加大对柯林斯的支持力度。“参议院领导基金”的议题宣传分支“一个国家”（One Nation）已将该州的竞选支出增至1700万美元，并开始播出正面广告，赞扬柯林斯在糖尿病和癌症研究方面的政绩。
这还不包括参议院领导基金计划在选举周期后期投入的4200万美元，用于助力柯林斯的竞选。如果普拉特纳获得民主党提名，共和党明确表示，他将面临比初选阶段规模大得多的广告攻势。
尽管柯林斯过往选举屡获胜利，但民主党人认为，缅因州自1992年以来历次总统选举都支持民主党候选人的党派倾向，将对他们有利。
缅因州是民主党夺回参议院多数席位战略的核心战场，柯林斯也是本届选举周期中最脆弱的共和党现任参议员。但大选的大部分局势要等到6月初民主党敲定候选人后才能明朗。
民主党在密歇根州也面临一场激烈的初选，三人角逐提名，以挑战11月的共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯。
共和党正全力以赴，试图拿下即将退休的民主党参议员加里·彼得斯空出的席位。参议院领导基金已为密歇根州预留4500万美元，这是该超级PAC在本届选举周期现阶段为进攻性机会投入的最大单笔金额。
民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德、州参议员马洛里·麦克莫罗和联邦众议员黑利·史蒂文斯之间的竞争尚未明朗，初选要到8月初才举行。上个月，麦克莫罗获得了沃伦的支持，而史蒂文斯则得到了内华达州参议员凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托——一位温和派议员——的背书。
据竞选消息人士向美国有线电视新闻网透露，麦克莫罗本周宣布2026年第一季度筹款超过300万美元，埃尔赛义德同期筹款225万美元。史蒂文斯尚未公布其筹款额。
这场竞争也凸显了民主党内部的分歧：在2024年总统选举期间，密歇根州民众对美国中东政策存在严重分歧。
埃尔赛义德本周与哈桑·皮克一同开展竞选活动。皮克是游戏平台Twitch上拥有大量粉丝的左翼主播，他曾发表过“美国活该遭遇9·11”的言论，随后表示对此感到后悔；他称哈马斯“比以色列好一千倍”；还辩称“10月7日袭击以色列的哈马斯成员是否实施了强奸并不重要”，因为这不会改变他对这场冲突的看法。他还将以色列在加沙的军事行动称为种族灭绝。
在本周密歇根州立大学的一场活动结束后，埃尔赛义德表示，皮克拥有超过300万Twitch粉丝的影响力，是他邀请皮克一同造势的原因之一。“如果我们真的想构建一种能让那些感觉被排除在外的民众发声的政治，我们就必须认真地去到他们自然聚集的地方，”埃尔赛义德说道。
麦克莫罗和史蒂文斯都批评了皮克的到访。中间派智库“第三条道路”（Third Way）一直指出皮克曾发表反犹太主义和厌女言论，该机构正敦促埃尔赛义德回应他是否认同皮克的观点。共和党急于揭露民主党内部在这个他们认为会在大选选民中造成分裂的问题上的分歧。
在接受《政客》杂志采访时，埃尔赛义德拒绝谴责皮克过往的言论。
“我不是来谴责他人观点的，”埃尔赛义德说道，“这种揪着不放、平台监管、取消文化——我以为我们已经摆脱这些了。”
与此同时，民主党也抓住了罗杰斯淡化伊朗冲突对油价影响的言论。“我们会没事的，我们有足够的石油，”曾在2024年密歇根州参议院选举中落败的前国会议员罗杰斯在《Punchbowl News》获取的一段音频片段中说道。
民主党利用这些言论将罗杰斯描绘成脱离密歇根选民实际情况的人——密歇根民众正承受着高油价和关税对汽车行业的冲击，而汽车行业是该州经济的支柱产业。
佐治亚州有望成为中期选举中竞争最激烈的席位之一。现任参议员乔恩·奥索夫是2024年特朗普获胜州中唯一寻求连任的民主党参议员。
尽管共和党将其列为首要的夺席目标，但他们党内充满波折且尚未明朗的初选，让人们对最终候选人对阵奥索夫的胜算感到担忧。奥索夫已经为大选积攒了充足的资源。
参议院领导基金已划拨4400万美元，试图拿下佐治亚州席位。共和党私下表示，在本届选举周期的这个阶段，他们认为民主党初选混乱的密歇根州，比佐治亚州更适合共和党拿下席位。
联邦众议员迈克·柯林斯、巴迪·卡特与前大学橄榄球教练德里克·杜利展开竞争。杜利得到了即将卸任的州长布莱恩·坎普的背书，坎普此前曾拒绝参选，令全国共和党人失望。共和党方面尚未出现明确的领先者，而特朗普至今尚未动用其影响力进行背书——这一举措本可帮助共和党快速整合支持某一位候选人。
与此同时，奥索夫的筹款成绩斐然，去年第四季度筹款1200万美元，目前现金储备超过2500万美元——是共和党阵营领先者卡特的五倍。
“该说的好话还是得说。他是个精明的家伙，口齿伶俐，谈吐得体。但他并不代表佐治亚州的价值观，这就是问题所在，”卡特上个月在《Ruthless》播客中评价奥索夫时说道，“你必须选出一位能够动员选民的候选人，我们要确保击败乔恩·奥索夫。”
最近，由于国会在国土安全部资金问题上陷入僵局，亚特兰大哈茨菲尔德-杰克逊国际机场出现长队，这成为此次竞选的一个争议点。共和党借此展开广告攻势，指责奥索夫和参议院民主党人。
奥索夫本人也毫不避讳地抨击本届政府。在2月一段广为传播的激昂演讲视频中，奥索夫严厉批评特朗普及其盟友，称他们是“统治我们国家的爱泼斯坦阶层”。
康恩与帕克斯顿之间的共和党缠斗丝毫没有缓和的迹象。
尽管曾承诺会尽快在这场对峙中选边站，但特朗普尚未介入。5月26日 runoff选举的候选人撤选截止日期已经过去，首轮投票成为美国历史上耗资最高的参议院初选，接下来的七周可能会充满激烈对抗和高昂成本。
3月的初选中，康恩获得42%的选票，帕克斯顿获得40.5%，自那以来没有出现过可信的公开民调。但康恩透露了其筹款运作情况：2026年第一季度筹款近900万美元。
其中包括3月3日初选后的几周内筹集的340万美元，康恩在该季度结束时现金储备超过800万美元。帕克斯顿尚未披露其最新筹款数据。
在向德克萨斯州选民和特朗普争取支持的过程中，两人在对通过《拯救美国法案》（SAVE America Act）——总统的首要优先事项之一的选民身份证法案——的承诺上产生争执。
帕克斯顿上月在海湖庄园与总统就 runoff选举进行了交谈，他试图进一步扩大康恩与MAGA基础选民之间的裂痕，突出指出康恩未出席上月在格雷普韦恩举行的保守派CPAC大会。康恩及其盟友则持续辩称，帕克斯顿过往的丑闻可能会让共和党在11月的选举中丢掉这个席位。
几十年来，民主党要在德克萨斯州获胜都希望渺茫，但许多人认为该党提名的州众议员詹姆斯·塔莱里科为民主党提供了真正将德克萨斯州变成竞争战场的机会。
但德克萨斯州参议院席位是否会成为竞争激烈的选区，可能取决于共和党选民在5月runoff选举中的选择。随着初选临近，参议院领导基金最初的投资名单并未包含德克萨斯州，但这一情况可能会根据该州大选前的竞争态势发生变化。
再过不到两个月，爱荷华州的初选选民将决定哪位民主党候选人将在11月挑战共和党籍众议员阿什利·辛普森。
6月2日的初选凸显了民主党内部的几场辩论，包括在倾向红色的州获胜需要具备哪些条件。州众议员乔希·图雷克是两届残奥会金牌得主，他将自己定位为“温和、注重常识的民主党人”；而州参议员扎克·瓦尔兹则是进步派人士，十多年前因一场捍卫婚姻平等的演讲而全国知名。
两位候选人分别获得了民主党不同派系的背书。参议员塔米·达克沃斯、玛吉·哈桑和科尔特斯·马斯托支持图雷克，而沃伦则 backing瓦尔兹。
在筹款方面，瓦尔兹和图雷克的表现不相上下。他们的竞选团队宣布，今年前三个月各自筹款110万美元。4月15日到期的季度报告将更清晰地展现两位候选人的现金储备情况——去年年底时，瓦尔兹的银行存款比图雷克更多，分别为73.3万美元和近40万美元。
图雷克还获得了“退伍军人投票PAC”（VoteVets）的支持，该机构已在该州为他投放了82.5万美元的广告。该超级PAC通常支持退伍军人候选人；图雷克从未服过兵役，他因父亲在越南服役时接触橙剂而天生患有脊柱裂。
民主党人承认爱荷华州的政治环境对他们来说很艰难。特朗普在三次总统竞选活动中都轻松拿下该州，一些共和党人私下表示，他们认为得到特朗普支持的前电视新闻主播辛普森，比特即将退休的参议员乔尼·恩斯特更强。
与民主党对手相比，辛普森拥有雄厚的竞选资金。她今年第一季度为其竞选团队及附属委员会筹款超过300万美元，季度末现金储备达650万美元。
参议院领导基金还计划向该州投入2900万美元，以保卫共和党占据的这个席位。今年该州还将举行竞争激烈的州长选举。
尽管民主党人不认为爱荷华州的竞争激烈程度能与阿拉斯加州和俄亥俄州相提并论，但他们认为该州可能会成为本届选举周期的黑马席位，尤其是在经济和高油价问题日益受到关注的情况下。
以下四个席位的竞选实际上已进入大选模式。北卡罗来纳州是目前唯一进入该状态的摇摆州，3月的初选正式确定了11月的对阵双方。民主党已在阿拉斯加州和俄亥俄州敲定了强有力的候选人，以挑战现任共和党参议员。新罕布什尔州的空缺席位，两位扎根该州的资深政客正准备在11月展开较量。
前民主党州长罗伊·库珀和前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利在3月3日的初选中几乎未遇对手，顺利获得提名，正式确定了这场备受期待的参议院席位对决。
共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯去年宣布退休，从而产生了这个空缺席位，这为民主党提供了最佳机会之一，以扩大在共和党中的优势。两党的战略家都认为，该州的竞选将一直胶着到最后一刻。
库珀和沃特利都是筹款能力出众的候选人，与各自的政党核心集团关系深厚，这将使这场竞选成为2026年耗资最高的选举之一。库珀尚未公布其筹款数据，沃特利则宣布2026年第一季度筹款500万美元。
参议院领导基金已为北卡罗来纳州划拨7100万美元，是该委员会用于保卫共和党现任席位的第二大投入。美国繁荣研究所（Americans for Prosperity）——一家领先的保守派倡导网络——已斥资超过500万美元支持沃特利的竞选。
在竞选初期，当地议题反映了全国性辩论，其中包括公共安全问题。
去年夏洛特市公共交通上乌克兰难民伊里娜·扎鲁茨卡被杀事件——被监控录像拍下——成为共和党攻击的焦点，他们将该州的民主党人描绘成对犯罪态度软弱。与此同时，民主党则试图质疑沃特利与该州一名已定罪的性犯罪者共和党官员的关联。
此外，作为刚卸任的共和党全国委员会主席，沃特利更广泛地抨击了特朗普政府时期的共和党执政记录。他支持去年夏天由共和党控制的国会通过的《宏伟法案》（One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act），并与国会共和党人一道推动通过《拯救美国法案》，同时在共和党全国委员会期间宣扬自己的“选举诚信”举措。
前联邦众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉1月宣布参选阿拉斯加州参议院席位，这是民主党招募候选人的一大胜利，为该党扩大席位版图、削弱共和党多数地位提供了助力。
佩尔托拉曾两次在全州选举中获胜：2022年的特别选举和随后的阿拉斯加州单一国会选区完整任期选举。尽管她在2024年的连任选举中以不到3个百分点的差距落败，但她的得票率远高于民主党总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯——哈里斯在该州以13个百分点的差距落败。
佩尔托拉的竞选团队表示，在其宣布参选后的最初24小时内，筹款就超过了150万美元，这一可观数额反映了民主党对其参选前景的热情。纽约州众议员亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特兹——这位进步派明星——也为这位阿拉斯加州民主党人提供了筹款支持。
尽管阿拉斯加州倾向共和党，但这场秋季竞选的潜在竞争性已引发外部团体的大量资金投入。外部团体已联合在阿拉斯加州有限的媒体市场投放了600万美元的广告，目前民主党在广告支出上大致拥有两倍于共和党人的优势。
感受到压力的共和党人正动员起来支持现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文，沙利文因投票支持特朗普去年出台的大规模国内政策法案中的医保削减条款而受到民主党抨击。一个名为“边境前线行动”（Last Frontier Action）的外部团体上月开始投放广告，为沙利文的政绩辩护，并称赞他为该法案中的“农村医疗转型计划”争取到了资金——该计划拨款500亿美元，以保障阿拉斯加州等州的医疗服务可及性。参议院领导基金也将划拨1500万美元助力沙利文的竞选。
拿下俄亥俄州席位是民主党夺回参议院多数席位战略的关键一环，但在特朗普时代该州持续右倾，最初让这场竞选对共和党有利。
俄亥俄州预计将成为一场耗资巨大的竞选，参议院领导基金已拨款7900万美元——是所有竞争州中投入最多的——以保卫由副总统JD·万斯辞职后任命的共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德的席位。
赫斯特德的预计民主党对手是前参议员谢罗德·布朗，他在2024年的选举中输给了共和党参议员伯尼·莫雷诺，但在选票表现上优于哈里斯。布朗本身就是一位出色的筹款人，今年第一季度通过其竞选委员会筹款1250万美元，季度末银行账户存有1650万美元。
俄亥俄州的竞选可能最终归结为谁能赢得工薪阶层选民的支持——这些选民在最近的选举中已经背离了民主党。民主党人认为，布朗一贯以蓝领工人的斗士形象示人，这将在11月的选举中对他有利。布朗也已强调伊朗战争对经济的影响，包括油价上涨。
与此同时，赫斯特德获得了一项可以在竞选活动中大力宣传的重要任命：他被任命为参议院拨款委员会成员，该委员会负责监督纳税人资金的使用方式和去向。这是一个备受瞩目的委员会职位，参议员可以借此向家乡选民展示他们为州内争取到的资源——正如柯林斯那样，她担任该委员会主席，并为家乡州赢得了大量拨款。
在参议员珍妮·沙欣宣布退休后，新罕布什尔州的参议院席位出现空缺。民主党人对联邦众议员克里斯·帕帕斯能够保住该州的民主党席位充满信心，考虑到该州的党派倾向以及民主党当前有利的选举环境。
共和党则希望前参议员约翰·E·苏努努能凭借其温和的形象以及家族在新罕布什尔州政坛的悠久渊源，让该州成为共和党可以争取的战场。苏努努理论上需要在9月初的初选中击败前马萨诸塞州参议员斯科特·布朗，但特朗普对苏努努的背书让他成为这场初选的明显热门人选。参议院领导基金已初步划拨1700万美元支持苏努努在该州的竞选。
这场参议院竞选也可能成为总统候选人的试金石，已有多位知名民主党人前往新罕布什尔州为帕帕斯助选。前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格和亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利今年都已前往该州，为帕帕斯的竞选活动站台。
The 9 most competitive Senate races of the 2026 midterms
2026-04-10T09:00:56.561Z / CNN
A quiet April will soon give way to a jam-packed primary season where the fight for control of the Senate will come into sharper focus.
No primaries take place this month, but the intensity of each contest is picking up. Three of the four premier battlegrounds – Georgia, Maine and Michigan – feature contentious primaries that may help shape the Senate map.
The campaigns also are in the midst of reporting quarterly fundraising hauls, offering a snapshot of support and resources available to their operations in a critical stretch. And outside groups are beginning to flex their spending power across the Senate map.
Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, unveiled a $342 million investment across eight states they view as key to maintaining their majority. The group plans to pour $236 million into defending five Republican-held seats: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. Another $106 million is set to target three Democratic-held seats: Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire.
Missing from the initial investment: Texas, which features a messy primary between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The early allocation of funds allows the super PAC to reserve advertising time for the summer and fall months before rates begin to climb closer to November. The announcement highlights the vast resources available to the GOP with SLF ending 2025 with about $100 million cash on hand. One major wild card in the money race is MAGA Inc., the leading pro-Trump super PAC, which is sitting on more than $300 million.
Senate Majority PAC, which supports Senate Democrats, had $36 million in the bank at year’s end. But the group has yet to outline their spending plans heading into November. “This announcement is a sign Republicans are nervous, plain and simple,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for SMP. “Their battleground map has increased substantially and we’re seeing the tell-tale signs of weakness with weak candidates, weak messaging, and an approval rating in the pits.”
While the candidates battle it out in their home states, the midterm campaign season is increasingly taking place against the backdrop of war with Iran and the economic uncertainty stemming from it.
The already broad disapproval of the war has risen to 66% with just one-third of the public believing President Donald Trump has a clear plan to handle the situation, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Meanwhile, approval of the president’s handling of the economy, a top concern for voters, has fallen to a new career low of 31%.
Democrats have started to seize on some of the economic pain points Americans are grappling with one month into the conflict, including higher gas prices. Average gas prices in the US rose to $4.16 a gallon this week, per AAA, a nearly 40% increase since the start of the war.
The fragile ceasefire underway underscores the uncertainty around the conflict and the economic impacts stemming from it – issues that could complicate the GOP’s road ahead in the midterms. In the meantime, the GOP is eager to highlight the heftier tax returns stemming from the president’s “big, beautiful bill” that are hitting many Americans’ bank accounts this filing season.
Overall, Democrats and Republicans are facing an American electorate with deeply negative views of both parties. But at this point in the cycle, Democrats hold an early advantage. Registered voters say by a 6-point margin that they’d prefer the Democratic Party’s candidate over the GOP candidate if the elections for Congress were held today.
Democrats, who have seen a string of victories in special elections this year, are bullish the environment will be on their side heading into November. But their road to the majority, which involves picking up four seats, faces a complicated map that takes them through some reliably red states.
Here’s a look at where the key Senate races stand seven months out from Election Day:
Upcoming primary contests in Georgia, Maine, and Michigan could help dictate where the general election battle in each state is heading. In Texas, Republicans are in a holding pattern as the president continues to sit on the sidelines. And two Iowa Democrats are duking it out for a chance to flip the GOP-held seat in November.
Maine
The Senate primary in Maine has quickly become one of the most contentious Democratic contests this cycle and could determine whether the party can unseat incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins in November.
With the primary two months away, Democratic Gov. Janet Mills is racing to define her progressive opponent Graham Platner, betting female voters will find his history of offensive comments disqualifying. Mills has deployed three separate attack ads against Platner highlighting his controversies, including downplaying incidents of sexual assaults in the military.
Platner pushed back by releasing his own ad acknowledging the unease around his online statements. “Maine, I’m asking you not to judge me for the worst thing I said on the internet on my worst day 14 years ago, but who I am today,” Platner said in the ad.
No independent polls have emerged since the TV spots hit the airwaves, so it’s unclear whether Mills’ attack strategy will move the needle enough in the race where Platner, an oyster farmer and veteran, has held an edge.
Platner outraised Mills by nearly $2 million in the final quarter of 2025. On Wednesday, Mills’ campaign announced she raised $2.7 million in the first quarter of the year. Platner has yet to release his fundraising figures for the same period.
On the polling front, one February survey showed Platner leading Mills by more than 30 points in the Democratic primary. That same survey found Platner up 11 points over Collins in a hypothetical general election showdown while a Collins-Mills match-up is within the margin of error.
Platner was also recently endorsed by progressive Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has voiced support for Mills.
As the primary plays out, Republicans are flexing their spending power on behalf of Collins. One Nation, the issue advocacy arm of the Senate Leadership Fund, has upped their spending in the race to $17 million and started running positive ads highlighting Collins’ record on diabetes and cancer research.
That’s on top of the $42 million investment SLF is planning to unleash later in the cycle to boost Collins. If Platner becomes the nominee, Republicans have made clear he would face an onslaught of ads on a much bigger scale than what’s taking place in the primary.
Despite Collins’ success in the past, Democrats believe the partisan lean of the state that has voted for Democrats in presidential elections since 1992 will work to their advantage.
Maine remains central to Democrats’ strategy to win the majority with Collins being the most vulnerable Senate Republican in this year’s cycle. But much of the dynamics of the general election contest won’t be settled until Democrats sort out their nominee in early June.
Democrats are engaged in another heated primary in Michigan with a three-way fight for the nomination to run against GOP candidate Mike Rogers in November.
Republicans are going all-in to flip the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. SLF is setting aside $45 million for Michigan – the largest amount the super PAC is dedicating to an offensive opportunity at this point in the cycle.
The Democratic race between Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and US Rep. Haley Stevens is far from being settled with the primary not taking place until early August. In the last month, McMorrow earned the support of Warren while Stevens drew an endorsement from Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, a moderate senator.
McMorrow this week announced raising over $3 million in the first quarter of 2026 while El-Sayed brought in $2.25 million during that same period, a campaign source told CNN. Stevens has yet to report her fundraising haul.
Reflecting the pile-up, all three Democratic candidates showed up to court voters at Opening Day for the Detroit Tigers – El-Sayed and Stevens even running into each other and sharing a moment.
The contest is also highlighting the party’s tension over Israel in a state that saw a significant divide over US policy towards the Middle East during the 2024 presidential election.
El-Sayed this week campaigned with Hasan Piker, a widely followed left-wing streamer on the gaming platform Twitch. Piker has said America “deserved September 11,” a comment he has since said he regrets; said Hamas is “a thousand times better” than Israel; and argued that “it doesn’t matter” if Hamas fighters who attacked Israel on October 7 committed rape since it didn’t change his views on the conflict. He has referred to Israel’s military offensive in Gaza as a genocide.
After an event at Michigan State University this week, El-Sayed said Piker’s reach – he has more than 3 million followers on Twitch – is part of why he rallied with him. “If we’re serious about building a politics that unlocks for the folks who feel locked out, you got to be serious about going to the places where they naturally are,” El-Sayed said.
McMorrow and Stevens both criticized Piker’s visit. Third Way, a center-left think tank that has argued Piker has engaged in antisemitic and misogynistic commentary, is pressing El-Sayed to answer questions about whether he aligns with Piker’s views. Republicans are eager to highlight the wedge within the Democratic Party on an issue they believe is divisive with general election voters.
In an interview with Politico, El-Sayed declined to disavow Piker’s past comments.
“I’m not here to disavow people’s views,” El-Sayed said. “This whole gotcha game, platform policing, cancel culture – I thought we were over it.”
Meanwhile, Democrats also have seized on comments from Rogers that downplayed the impact of the Iran war on gas prices. “We’re gonna be fine, we got plenty of oil,” Rogers, a former congressman who lost the state’s 2024 Senate race, said in an audio clip obtained by Punchbowl News.
Democrats have used those comments to paint Rogers as out of touch with Michigan voters who are feeling an economic squeeze from high gas prices and the impact of tariffs on the auto industry, which is a cornerstone of the state’s economy.
Georgia looms as potentially one of the most competitive midterm races. Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Senate Democrat standing for reelection in a state carried by Trump in 2024.
Though Republicans have it penciled in as a top pick-up target, their bruising and uncertain primary is fueling concerns about the eventual nominee’s chances against Ossoff, who has been able to stockpile resources for the general election.
SLF is allocating $44 million to try to flip Georgia. Privately, Republicans say at this point in the cycle, they view Michigan, where the messy primary is on the Democratic side, as slightly more prime for a GOP pickup than the Peach State.
US Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter are competing with Derek Dooley, the former college football coach endorsed by outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp, who disappointed national Republicans by declining to enter the race himself. No clear leader has emerged on the GOP side, and Trump has so far withheld his influential endorsement, a move that could help the party coalesce behind a candidate.
All the while, Ossoff has been posting blockbuster fundraising numbers, pulling in $12 million in the fourth quarter of last year and reporting more than $25 million in cash on hand – five times as much as Carter, who leads the GOP field in that measure.
“You got to give the devil his due. He’s a sharp fella. He’s articulate. He speaks well. But he does not represent the values of the state of Georgia and that’s the problem,” Carter said of Ossoff on the Ruthless podcast last month. “You better have somebody at the top of the ticket who can turn people out who we are going to make sure beats Jon Ossoff.”
Recently, long lines at Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, caused by the stalemate in Congress over DHS funding, have emerged as a flashpoint in the race. Republicans have seized on the developments, launching ads blaming Ossoff and Senate Democrats.
For his part, Ossoff has not shied away from attacking the administration. In a widely shared social media clip of a fiery speech from February, Ossoff laid into Trump and his allies, referring to them as the “Epstein class ruling our country.”
The Republican brawl between Cornyn and Paxton shows no signs of abating.
Despite pledging to quickly pick a side in the standoff, Trump has not stepped in. The deadline for candidates to remove their names from the May 26 runoff ballot has passed, and the next seven weeks could prove bruising and costly after the first round of voting became the most expensive Senate primary in US history.
No credible public polling has emerged in the weeks since the March primary where Cornyn received 42% of the vote to Paxton’s 40.5%. But Cornyn has provided a window into his fundraising operation, raising nearly $9 million in the first quarter of 2026.
That includes $3.4 million in the weeks since the March 3 primary, and Cornyn ended the period with over $8 million cash on hand. Paxton has yet to disclose his latest fundraising figures.
As they make their case to Texas voters and Trump, the two men have battled over their commitment to passing the SAVE America Act, a voter ID bill that is a top priority for the president.
Paxton, who spoke with the president about the runoff at Mar-a-Lago last month, has tried to drive an even further wedge between Cornyn and the MAGA base, highlighting the senator’s non-attendance at the conservative CPAC gathering in Grapevine last month. Cornyn and his allies continue to argue Paxton history of scandals could jeopardize the seat for Republicans in the November.
Texas has been a longshot for Democrats for decades, but many feel their nominee – state Rep. James Talarico – could give the party a real chance of putting Texas in play.
But whether Texas emerges as a competitive Senate race could hinge on what Republican voters decide in the May runoff. With the primary underway, the SLF did not include Texas in its initial investment list, but that could change depending on the competitiveness in the state heading into the general election.
In less than two months, Iowa primary voters will decide which Democratic candidate will take on GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in November.
The June 2 primary is highlighting several of the debates within the Democratic Party, including what it takes to win in a red-leaning state. State Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist, is pitching himself as a “moderate, common-sense Democrat” while state Sen. Zach Wahls is a progressive who gained national attention with a speech in defense of marriage equality more than a decade ago.
The two candidates have earned endorsements from different wings of the party. Sens. Tammy Duckworth, Maggie Hassan and Cortez Masto have thrown their support behind Turek, while Warren is backing Wahls.
On the fundraising front, Wahls and Turek are on similar footing. Their campaigns announced identical $1.1 million hauls for the first three months of the year. The quarterly reports due April 15 will provide a clearer picture of the candidate’s cash-on-hand after Wahls ended the year with more in the bank than Turek – $733,000 to just under $400,000.
Turek also is getting a boost from VoteVets, which launched an $825,000 ad buy in the state on his behalf. The super PAC typically supports candidates who are veterans. Turek never served in the military; he was born with spina bifida after his father’s exposure to Agent Orange while serving in Vietnam.
Democrats acknowledge Iowa is difficult political terrain. Trump won the state handily in his three runs for the White House, and some Republicans privately say they believe Hinson, a former TV newscaster with Trump’s backing, is a stronger candidate than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst.
Hinson is operating with a sizable war chest compared to her Democratic opponents. She raised over $3 million for her campaign and affiliated committees in the first quarter of the year and ended the period with $6.5 million cash on hand.
SLF also plans to send $29 million to the state to defend the GOP-held seat in a year when a competitive governor’s race will also be on the ballot.
While they don’t place Iowa on the same level of competitiveness as Alaska and Ohio, Democrats argue the state could be a sleeper race of the cycle, especially as concerns about the economy and high gas prices comes into focus.
These four contests are essentially in general election mode. North Carolina is the lone toss-up state in this position after the March primary officially established the matchup for November. Democrats have secured their prized recruits in Alaska and Ohio to face off against incumbent GOP senators. And an open seat in New Hampshire has two politicians with deep Granite State roots preparing for battle in November.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley secured their nominations on March 3 after effectively uncontested primaries, formalizing the matchup in another highly anticipated battleground Senate contest.
The open-seat race, produced by GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ retirement announcement last year, has given Democrats one of their best chances to gain ground on Republicans. Strategists in both parties believe this state will be closely contested until the end.
Both Cooper and Whatley are strong fundraisers with deep ties to their party establishments, setting up what’s likely to rank as one of 2026’s most expensive contests. While Cooper has yet to release his fundraising numbers, Whatley announced raising $5 million in the first quarter of 2026.
SLF has slated $71 million for North Carolina, the second largest investment to retain a Republican-held state. And Americans for Prosperity, a leading conservative advocacy network, has already spent more than $5 million backing Whatley’s campaign.
In the early going, the race has been animated by local issues reflecting national debates, including public safety.
The killing of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on public transport in Charlotte last year – captured on camera – has been a focus of GOP attacks, portraying state Democrats as soft on crime. Democrats, meanwhile, have sought to raise questions about Whatley’s ties to a GOP official in the state who is a convicted sex offender.
In addition, as a recently departed RNC chair, Whatley is testing the record of Republican government under the Trump administration more broadly. He’s embraced the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act passed by the GOP-controlled Congress last summer, and aligned himself with congressional Republicans’ latest push to pass the SAVE America Act, touting his own “election integrity” initiatives at the RNC.
Former US Rep. Mary Peltola’s decision to enter Alaska’s Senate race in January was a major recruiting win for Democrats, giving the party a boost as it looks for ways to expand the map and cut into the Republican majority.
Peltola has won statewide twice, in a special election and subsequent race for a full-term representing Alaska’s at-large congressional district in 2022. And though she lost reelection in 2024 by less than 3 points, she ran well ahead of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who lost the state by 13 points.
In the first 24 hours following her launch, Peltola’s campaign said she raised more than $1.5 million, a significant haul reflecting the party’s enthusiasm about her prospects. And New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive star, has lent her fundraising prowess to the Alaska Democrat.
While Alaska has a Republican lean, the potential for a competitive race this fall has prompted a flood of outside spending. Outside groups have already combined to spend $6 million on advertisements in Alaska’s sparse media markets, with Democrats sporting a roughly two-to-one advantage so far.
And sensing pressure, Republicans are mobilizing to support incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who’s taken flak from Democrats over health care cuts in Trump’s sweeping domestic policy bill that he voted for last year. One outside group – “Last Frontier Action” – started running ads last month defending Sullivan’s record and touting his effort to secure funds for the legislation’s “Rural Health Transformation Program,” which provides $50 billion to shore up access in states like Alaska. SLF is also allocating $15 million to boost Sullivan in the race.
Flipping Ohio is a key part of Democrats’ strategy to winning back the Senate, but the steady rightward shift of the state during the Trump era initially tilts the race in the GOP’s favor.
Ohio is expected to be an expensive race, with SLF budgeting $79 million – the most of any state in play this cycle – to defend GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Husted’s expected Democratic challenger is former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat to GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, but outperformed Harris on the ticket. Brown is a strong fundraiser in his own right, bringing in $12.5 million across his campaign committees in the first quarter and ending the period with $16.5 million in the bank.
The campaign in Ohio may boil down to who can win working-class voters, who have drifted away from Democrats in recent elections. Democrats believe Brown’s history of presenting himself as a fighter for blue-collar workers may serve him well in November. Brown has also leaned into highlighting the economic impacts of the war in Iran, including rising gas prices.
Husted, meanwhile, picked up a key appointment he can talk up on the campaign trail – a spot on the Senate Appropriations Committee, which oversees how and where taxpayer dollars are spent. It’s a prized committee post senators can tout to show voters back home what they are securing for their state – similar to Collins, who chairs the committee and has won significant funding for her home state.
Democrats are feeling confident in the ability of US Rep. Chris Pappas to keep New Hampshire in the blue column after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement announcement opened up a Senate seat, given the state’s partisan lean and the favorable political environment for the party.
Republicans are hopeful former Sen. John E. Sununu could put the Granite State in play with his more moderate profile and his family’s long record in New Hampshire politics. Sununu technically faces a September primary against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, but Trump’s endorsement of Sununu makes him the clear favorite in the contest. SLF is targeting an initial $17 million to support Sununu in the state.
The Senate contest could also serve as a testing ground for presidential hopefuls with several high-profile Democrats already campaigning with Pappas in the Granite State. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly have hit the campaign trail in support of Pappas this year.
