2026-04-10T17:34:02.077Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：马歇尔·科恩
2小时前
发布时间：2026年4月10日美国东部时间下午1:34
投资
4月10日拍摄的白宫外景。
亚历克斯·布兰登/美联社
据白宫一名官员透露，白宫近日警告员工不得在预测市场及其他平台上进行内幕交易。
此次内部警告发布之际，预测网站和石油期货市场正出现大量与伊朗战争相关的争议性交易。目前尚无公开证据表明白宫官员与这些交易有关联，但议员们已担忧政府内部人士可能借此牟利。
一名收到该邮件备忘录的消息人士透露，3月24日的白宫备忘录援引了一些新闻报道，这些报道对政府官员“利用非公开政府信息下注”表示担忧。该消息人士称，这封邮件提醒员工，“任何人利用非公开信息买卖这些合约均属刑事犯罪”，同时也违反了联邦道德规范。
据该消息人士透露，邮件还补充道：“所有白宫员工均需谨记，政府员工为获取经济利益滥用非公开信息是极其严重的违法行为，绝对不容忍。”
针对CNN就该备忘录提出的问题，白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中表示：“所有联邦员工都需遵守政府道德准则，禁止利用非公开信息谋取经济利益。然而，在没有证据的情况下暗示政府官员参与此类活动，是毫无根据且不负责任的报道。”
《华尔街日报》率先报道了白宫备忘录一事。
该备忘录特别提及了卡尔希（Kalshi）和波利市场（Polymarket）这两家最受欢迎的预测网站，其周交易量达数十亿美元。（CNN与卡尔希存在合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。不过，编辑人员被禁止参与预测市场交易。）
卡尔希受美国联邦监管，因此不直接提供战争相关的交易市场。但其针对伊朗最高领袖任期的交易市场曾引发大量审查，最终导致巨额退款和民事诉讼。
波利市场受美国监管的网站尚未完全投入运营，因此其与伊朗相关的交易市场位于国际站点，不受美国规则限制。专家多次指出该网站存在潜在的内幕交易问题，针对战争的下注时机精准。上周，该公司还为短暂推出的关于在伊朗被击落的美国军人命运的交易市场道歉。
特朗普政府总体上对预测市场持支持态度。
负责监管预测网站的美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主席由特朗普任命，他曾表示希望“允许预测市场蓬勃发展”。新任主席迈克尔·塞利格撤回了拜登时期提出的禁止体育和选举预测市场的提案。近期，CFTC起诉了试图打击这些平台的州，塞利格辩称，只有联邦法规，而非州级赌博法，才对这些网站拥有管辖权。
今年，国会山的议员们提出了十余项进一步监管预测市场的法案，其中包括收紧针对政府官员、国会议员及其员工内幕交易的规定。
其中部分法案为两党合作法案。参与这些法案的多名民主党人将提案描述为打击他们所称的特朗普政府内部“腐败”的手段，但他们并未提供将任何特朗普官员与具体下注行为联系起来的公开证据。
White House warns staff against insider trading on prediction markets
2026-04-10T17:34:02.077Z / CNN
By Marshall Cohen
2 hr ago
PUBLISHED Apr 10, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Investing
An exterior view of the White House, on Thursday.
Alex Brandon/AP
The White House recently warned staff not to engage in insider trading on prediction markets and other platforms, according to a White House official.
The internal warning came amid a flurry of controversial trades on prediction sites and in oil futures markets, mostly related to the Iran war. There isn’t public evidence linking White House officials to these trades, but lawmakers have raised concerns of government insiders possibly cashing in.
The March 24 White House memo cited press reports that “raised concerns” about government officials “using nonpublic government information to place wagers,” according to a source who received the emailed memo. The email reminded staffers that it is a “criminal offense for anyone to use nonpublic information to buy or sell these contracts,” and that it also violates federal ethics regulations, the source said.
“All White House employees are reminded that the misuse of nonpublic information by government employees for financial benefit is a very serious offense and will not be tolerated,” the email added, according to the source.
In response to CNN’s questions about the memo, White House spokesman Davis Ingle said in a statement, “All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit. However, any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
The Wall Street Journal first reported about the White House memo.
The memo specifically mentioned Kalshi and Polymarket, which are the most popular prediction sites, with billions of dollars in weekly trading volume. (CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. However, editorial employees are prohibited from participating in prediction markets.)
Kalshi is federally regulated in the US and, therefore, doesn’t offer markets directly about war. However, its markets about the tenure of Iran’s supreme leader drew considerable scrutiny, leading to large refunds and civil lawsuits.
Polymarket’s US-regulated site isn’t fully operational yet, so its Iran-related markets are on its international site, unfettered by US rules. Experts have repeatedly flagged potential insider trading on the site, with well-timed bets about the war. And the company apologized last week for briefly offering markets on the fate of US service members who were shot down over Iran.
The Trump administration has been largely supportive of prediction markets.
The Trump-appointed chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction sites, has said he wants to “allow them to flourish.” The new chair, Michael Selig, withdrew Biden-era proposals to ban prediction markets on sports and elections. And the CFTC recently sued states that want to crack down on these platforms, with Selig arguing that only federal regulations, and not state gaming laws, should have jurisdiction over the sites.
This year, lawmakers on Capitol Hill have proposed more than a dozen bills to further regulate prediction markets, including stiffening rules against insider trading by government officials, members of Congress, and their staff.
Some of these bills are bipartisan. Many of the Democrats involved in these bills have framed these proposals as a way to crack down on what they call “corruption” within the Trump administration, though they have not provided public evidence connecting any Trump officials to specific bets.