2026年5月8日 美国东部时间凌晨12:01 / CNN政治频道
亚伦·布莱克 分析
随着各国于周四交火，最新的伊朗战争和平谈判能取得什么成果（如果真有成果的话）仍未可知。唐纳德·特朗普总统此前曾宣称一项协议即将达成。但无论如何，摆在桌面上的潜在协议似乎都只是初步的。
不过，有一点似乎越来越清晰：特朗普并未从这场战争中获得他最初想要的东西。
这场冲突被证明比他预想的要根深蒂固得多，还让他的支持率跌至历史低点，显然是出于急于结束冲突的焦虑，特朗普似乎已经放弃了他最初提出的许多极端要求。
这并不意味着最近这场来回谈判达成的结果不可能是一份好协议；只是这显然不符合特朗普短短两个月前设定的标准。
谈判似乎围绕着起草一份简短备忘录展开，该备忘录将为通过谈判结束战争制定流程。不过截至周四，美国仍在等待伊朗对该提案的回应。
该备忘录将启动为期30天的谈判期，重点是在一段明确的时间内暂停伊朗的核计划——美国官员似乎希望至少为10年——并要求伊朗交出现有的高浓缩铀库存。
作为交换，美国可能会做出让步，包括放松制裁和解冻伊朗被冻结的数十亿美元资金。双方还将承诺解除对霍尔木兹海峡的限制。
但从一开始，特朗普就表示他的目标不是暂停伊朗的核计划，而是确保伊朗“永远”无法获得核武器。他曾多次重复这一点，经常使用“永远”这个词。
就连达成谈判协议的可能性，也是特朗普曾经明确拒绝过的。
“除非伊朗无条件投降，否则不会与伊朗达成任何协议！”战争打响一周后，特朗普在社交媒体上写道。
另一个似乎很快就被抛诸脑后的目标是政权更迭。
在2月底战争爆发当晚的视频声明中，特朗普对伊朗民众说：“当我们结束这场行动后，你们可以接管你们的政府”，并承诺：“这将由你们来掌控。”
“现在是掌控自己命运的时候了，是开启触手可及的繁荣辉煌未来的时候了，”特朗普补充道。“这是行动的时刻。不要错过这个机会。”
这并非声明中的附带内容，而是特朗普的收尾部分。
但如今这种政权更迭目标甚至已不在谈判讨论范围内。特朗普曾声称，击毙多名伊朗领导人就等同于实现了政权更迭，但这一说法在多个方面都难以令人信服——尤其是现任最高领袖是前最高领袖的儿子。
特朗普政府（其目标清单非常不一致）常列出的另一个优先事项是结束伊朗对中东地区代理组织的支持，比如哈马斯和真主党。
特朗普在3月2日表示，他的主要目标之一是“确保”伊朗“无法继续武装、资助和指挥”这些代理组织。两天后，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特将其描述为确保“他们在该地区的代理组织无法再伤害美国人”。
当特朗普在4月中旬 falsely声称伊朗已在一项协议中同意“所有条件”时，他告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，伊朗已同意停止支持所有代理组织。
但如今，没有理由认为这一威胁已经消除，甚至也没有理由认为这是谈判的主要内容。
包括美国有线电视新闻网在内的媒体迄今报道的谈判细节，都未涉及代理组织问题。周三特朗普接受《PBS新闻一小时》采访谈及协议前景时，也没有提到代理组织。
一场战争努力能实现所有既定目标的情况并不多见。但值得注意的是，特朗普为自己设定的目标何等极端——而他的政府似乎又有多快就放弃了其中一些目标。在某些情况下，官员们似乎很快就放弃了尝试。
至少一些伊朗强硬派似乎已经意识到，他们可能只能得到远低于预期的成果。
周二在国防部的一场简报会上，一名原本赞扬该机构和战争努力的记者追问国防部长皮特·赫格斯，为何未能实现政权更迭和迫使伊朗投降的承诺。
“对伊朗人的承诺去哪了？”这名记者问道。“总统何时决定放弃他提出的无条件投降要求？”
赫格斯声称特朗普并未妥协，并表示伊朗民众如果愿意，仍可以在未来某个时候推翻本国政府。
随后他补充称，目标是确保与伊朗达成的任何协议都包含一项条款，即伊朗“永远不会拥有核武器”。他说特朗普“一直专注于此”，而协议和谈判正是围绕这一点展开的。
只不过仅仅几天后，听起来“永远”这个要求可能也已经被放弃了。
Trump is not getting what he initially wanted from the Iran war
2026-05-08 12:01 AM ET / CNN Politics
Analysis by Aaron Blake
It remains to be seen what, if anything, comes from the latest Iran war peace talks as the countries exchanged fire Thursday. President Donald Trump has claimed a deal was imminent before. And the potential agreement on the table seems to be preliminary, regardless.
What does seem increasingly clear, though: Trump is not getting what he initially wanted from this war.
In his apparent anxiousness to end a conflict that has proven more deeply entrenched than he foretold and has sunk his poll numbers to historic lows, Trump seems to have abandoned many of his initial maximalist demands.
That doesn’t mean whatever results from the most recent back and forth can’t be a good deal; it’s just quite notably not where Trump set the bar two short months ago.
The talks seem to revolve around producing a short memorandum that would lay out the process for a negotiated end to the war, though as of Thursday the US was still waiting on Iran’s response to the proposal.
The memo would trigger a 30-day negotiation period that would focus on halting Iran’s nuclear program for a defined period — US officials seem to want at least 10 years — and involve Iran turning over its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
In exchange, the US could make concessions including relaxing sanctions and unfreezing billions in frozen Iranian funds. And both sides would commit to ending restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump steps off Air Force One upon arrival at Palm Beach International Airport, Florida on May 1, 2026.
Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
Ships and boats in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam, Oman, May 1, 2026.
Stringer/Reuters
But from the beginning, Trump has said his goal was not a pause in Iran’s nuclear program, but rather to make it so Iran can “never” get a nuke. He has said that repeatedly, often using the word “never.”
And even the prospect of a negotiated deal is something Trump once expressly rejected.
“There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Trump said on social media a week into the war.
Another goal that appears to have gone by the wayside — and rather quickly, at that — is regime change.
In his video announcement the night the war launched in late February, Trump told the Iranian people, “When we’re finished, take over your government,” before promising: “It’ll be yours to take.”
“Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach,” Trump added. “This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
And this wasn’t just some aside in the announcement; this was Trump’s closing section.
But this type of regime change isn’t even part of discussions anymore. Trump has posited that the killing of several Iranian leaders amounted to regime change, but that’s not a very convincing argument for several reasons — especially when the current supreme leader is the son of the previous supreme leader.
Another priority that often appeared on the administration’s (very inconsistent) list of goals was ending Iran’s support for proxy groups in the Middle East, like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Trump said March 2 that one of his main goals was “ensuring” that Iran “cannot continue to arm, fund and direct” the proxies. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described it two days later as ensuring “their proxies in the region can no longer harm Americans.”
When the president falsely claimed Iran had agreed to “everything” in a deal in mid-April, he told CBS News that it had agreed to stop backing all proxy groups.
But today, there is no reason to believe this threat has been extinguished or that it’s even a main part of the discussions.
The details of the negotiations reported by the media, including CNN, thus far haven’t included proxy groups. And when Trump spoke to PBS News about the prospects for a deal Wednesday, he didn’t mention proxy groups.
It’s rare that a war effort achieves all of its aims. But it’s notable how maximalist Trump went with his goals — and how quickly his administration appears to have abandoned some of them. In some cases, officials seemed to stop trying rather quickly.
And at least some Iran hawks seem to have noticed they might get far less than they’d hoped.
At a Defense Department briefing Tuesday, a journalist who otherwise praised the agency and the war effort proceeded to press Secretary Pete Hegseth to account for the failure to deliver regime change and a surrender.
“What happened to that pledge to the Iranians?” the journalist asked. “And when did the president decide to capitulate on his demand for unconditional surrender?”
Hegseth claimed Trump hadn’t capitulated and suggested the Iranian people could still overthrow their government if they wanted to — even at some later date.
Then he added that the goal was ensuring that any agreement with Iran would include a provision that the country “never has a nuclear weapon.” He said Trump has “been focused on that, and the deal and discussions are centered on that.”
Except just a few days later, it sounds like “never” might be off the table, too.