2026-04-21T07:00:21-0400 / https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-will-run-federal-reserve-senate-doesnt-confirm-trump-pick-kevin-warsh/
特朗普总统正努力重塑美联储，在与杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席数月交锋后，他计划将美联储主席一职更换为新的央行行长。
但鲍威尔的任期将于5月15日结束，时间已十分紧迫，而特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什正面临参议院确认程序的阻碍。目前尚不清楚如果参议院无法在次月前确认沃什的任职，谁将执掌这家央行——而且鲍威尔可能不会像特朗普希望的那样迅速离任。
参议院的僵局源于司法部针对鲍威尔发起的一项刑事调查，调查内容涉及美联储总部翻新工程。鲍威尔指责检察官试图恐吓他，因为他降息的步伐慢于特朗普的预期，特朗普政府对此予以否认。
北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯认为这项调查“站不住脚且毫无意义”，他拒绝就任何美联储提名进行投票，除非该调查被撤销。但截至目前，司法部并未让步。上月，一名法官驳回了两份发给美联储的传票，华盛顿特区美国检察官珍妮妮·皮尔罗誓言将对该判决提起上诉。上周，皮尔罗办公室的检察官出人意料地突袭了美联储总部，此举不同寻常。
蒂利斯称赞沃什——这位前美联储官员、胡佛研究所研究员——拥有“无可挑剔的资历”，但如果蒂利斯继续阻挠美联储提名的审议，将加大沃什获得参议院银行业委员会通过的难度。该委员会共有11名民主党议员和13名共和党议员，蒂利斯也在其中，这意味着只要有一名共和党议员倒戈，委员会就可能陷入僵局。
参议院银行业委员会定于周二为沃什举行确认听证会。
由于前路不明，鲍威尔表示他将留任临时美联储主席，直到继任者就职，且不会在司法部结束调查前离开美联储理事会。与此同时，特朗普威胁称，如果鲍威尔在美联储任职过久，他将解雇鲍威尔。总统还有可能援引司法部档案中的一份1978年法律意见，声称他可以任命自己的临时主席。
白宫尚未说明如果5月15日到来时沃什仍未获得确认，美方将采取何种行动。白宫发言人库什·德赛称此事为“毫无意义的猜测”。
“凯文·沃什完全有资格担任下一任美联储主席，白宫正与参议院密切合作，推动他迅速获得确认，”德赛说道。
为何6月17日是“最终截止日期”
尽管鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于5月中旬结束，但这位主席最受关注的公开职责要到约一个月后才会迎来节点——届时美联储官员组成的委员会将召开会议制定利率政策。
除了担任美联储理事会主席外，鲍威尔还正式担任联邦公开市场委员会主席。该委员会由12名成员组成，负责制定货币政策，平衡美联储促进低失业率和低通胀的双重目标。鲍威尔通常会在每次FOMC会议结束后举行新闻发布会，总结委员会对经济状况的看法——这一活动备受市场关注。
密歇根大学商业法副教授、前联邦检察官杰里米·克雷斯表示，鲍威尔主席任期结束后的首次FOMC会议定于6月16日至17日召开，这可能才是真正的“新主席上任的最终截止日期”。
“对我来说，这是我在日程上标记的必须解决所有问题的日期，”克雷斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，“因为公众、投资者，坦率地说，世界其他国家都希望看到一位没有不确定性阴云笼罩的美联储主席。”
该委员会已于1月全票重选鲍威尔担任为期一年的主席一职。市场普遍预计美联储在接下来的几次会议上将维持利率不变，鲍威尔上月在新闻发布会上指出了伊朗战争带来的不确定性。
但布鲁金斯学会财政与货币政策哈钦斯中心主任大卫·韦塞尔指出，另一个“可怕的可能性”是，如果美联储领导层仍存在不确定性，金融市场可能陷入动荡。
“在这种时刻，公众、市场和世界其他国家都希望‘好吧，我们有靠谱的人在掌舵’，这一点至关重要，”他说，“如果谁才是美联储真正的决策者存在混淆，那可能真的会引发市场动荡。”
鲍威尔称若沃什未获确认，他将留任
上月被问及如果5月15日前未能选出新的美联储主席，他将作何打算时，鲍威尔告诉记者，他计划以临时主席的身份留任，直到继任者获得确认。
“这是法律规定的，我们也曾多次这么做——包括涉及我本人的情况——这也是我们在当前情况下的应对方式，”他说。
虽然鲍威尔的四年主席任期将于下月结束，但他作为美联储理事会普通理事的14年任期要到2028年1月才结束。大多数美联储主席在主席任期结束后都会完全离开理事会。但司法部对他的调查可能会打破这一惯例。
鲍威尔上月告诉记者，他“无意在调查彻底结束、实现透明和最终结果前离开理事会”。
鲍威尔也没有排除在调查结束后继续留在理事会的可能性。他表示，他“将根据对美联储机构和我们服务的民众最有利的原则做出决定”。
总统能否任命临时主席？
白宫尚未说明如果沃什无法在次月前获得主席职位确认，特朗普将采取何种行动——但如果总统决定质疑鲍威尔留任的决定，他可能会援引一份已有数十年历史的法律备忘录。
1978年卡特政府时期，司法部法律顾问办公室辩称，如果主席职位出现空缺，总统有权任命现任美联储理事会成员担任代理主席。
这项法律意见从未在法庭上接受过检验。韦塞尔表示，该意见可能会被削弱，因为在该意见发布一年后，美联储相关法律被修订，明确规定美联储主席职位需经参议院确认，而非仅在理事加入美联储时需要参议院批准提名。
1983年，里根政府的律师约翰·罗伯茨——后来成为最高法院首席大法官——持以下立场：如果“主席提名正在等待审议或即将提交”，总统仍可任命代理主席。
现任美联储理事会成员中有三人是特朗普任命的：斯蒂芬·米兰、米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒。目前尚不清楚如果特朗普效仿卡特和里根政府，试图任命其中一人担任代理主席，将会出现何种局面。
“我认为对法律最合理的解读是，鲍威尔将继续担任临时主席，”克雷斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，“但此前从未有人对此提出过挑战，如果特朗普声称任命自己的美联储主席，那么我们可能会面临潜在的法律僵局，除了最高法院，我看不到其他解决途径。”
韦塞尔表示，如果出现这种情况，且鲍威尔和总统提名的人选谁在执掌美联储的问题上存在混乱，金融市场可能会做出负面反应。
“特朗普可能会尝试在这里采取行动，”他说，“我认为他不会成功，而且如果这引发金融市场大量焦虑情绪，他会退缩。”
特朗普威胁“若不按时离任就解雇鲍威尔”
特朗普上周对福克斯商业频道主持人玛丽亚·巴尔蒂罗莫表示，如果鲍威尔不离开美联储，他将尝试解雇这位主席。
“那我就必须解雇他，好吧，如果他不按时离任的话，”总统说道，尽管目前尚不清楚他所说的“按时”具体指什么，因为鲍威尔的理事任期要到2028年1月才结束。“我一直忍住没解雇他。我一直想解雇他，但我不想引发争议。”
数月来，特朗普断断续续地一直在考虑解雇鲍威尔。鲍威尔是特朗普在首届任期内提名担任美联储主席的。特朗普近期明确表达了对这位美联储主席的不满，称鲍威尔是“笨蛋”、“顽固的骡子”，还在提及鲍威尔降息步伐缓慢时称他为“太迟先生”。
如果特朗普试图解雇鲍威尔，他很可能会面临法律阻力，因为联邦法律规定，美联储理事会成员只能“因正当理由”被免职——这一术语在法律上并未明确定义。
总统解雇美联储理事会成员的权力目前正处于司法审查中。特朗普去年提议解雇拜登任命的莉萨·库克，指控她在抵押贷款文件中作出虚假陈述。库克对解雇决定提起诉讼，称这些指控“毫无根据”，并认为这些指控不符合法律规定的“正当理由”解雇要求。
联邦法院允许库克在案件审理期间继续履职。最高法院已就是否暂停这些裁决提起诉讼，今年早些时候的口头辩论中，最高法院似乎暂时倾向于让库克继续留任。
克雷斯认为，试图解雇鲍威尔可能会“不必要地复杂化”特朗普任命新美联储主席的努力。
“特朗普要达成目标有一条非常简单的阻力最小之路，”他说，“对于白宫里的理性人士来说，撤销司法部调查是让沃什出任美联储主席、让鲍威尔离开美联储理事会的最佳方式。”
Who will run the Federal Reserve if the Senate doesn’t confirm Trump pick Kevin Warsh?
2026-04-21T07:00:21-0400 / https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-will-run-federal-reserve-senate-doesnt-confirm-trump-pick-kevin-warsh/
President Trump is fighting to reshape the Federal Reserve, aiming to replace Chair Jerome Powell with a new central bank chief after sparring with Powell for months.
But the clock is ticking before Powell’s term ends on May 15, and Mr. Trump’s nominee for Fed chief, Kevin Warsh, is facing a roadblock to his Senate confirmation. It’s unclear who will run the central bank if the Senate is unable to confirm Warsh by next month — and it’s possible that Powell will not go away as quickly as Mr. Trump would like.
The impasse in the Senate hinges on a criminal investigation into Powell that was launched by the Justice Department over a renovation to the Fed’s headquarters. Powell has accused prosecutors of trying to intimidate him for cutting interest rates at a slower clip than Mr. Trump would prefer, which the Trump administration has denied.
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who views the investigation as “weak and frivolous,” has refused to vote on any Fed nominees until the probe is dropped. But so far, the Justice Department has not backed down. A judge last month quashed a pair of subpoenas sent to the Fed, a decision that U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro vowed to fight. And last week, in an unusual move, prosecutors from Pirro’s office visited the Fed headquarters unannounced.
Tillis has praised Warsh — a former Fed official and Hoover Institution fellow — for his “impeccable credentials,” but if Tillis maintains his blockade on Fed nominees, it could make it harder to get Warsh past the Senate Banking Committee. The committee has 11 Democrats and 13 Republicans, including Tillis, meaning the panel could deadlock if one Republican defects.
The Senate Banking Committee is set to hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh on Tuesday.
With the path forward unclear, Powell has said he will stay on as interim Fed chair until his successor is in place and won’t leave the central bank’s board until the Justice Department ends its investigation. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has threatened to fire Powell if he stays at the Fed for too long. And it’s possible that the president will reach back into the Justice Department’s archives and invoke a 1978 legal opinion that argues he can pick his own interim chair.
The White House has not said what it will do if May 15 rolls around without Warsh confirmed. White House spokesman Kush Desai called the matter “pointless speculation.”
“Kevin Warsh is eminently qualified to serve as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the White House is working closely with the Senate for his swift confirmation,” Desai said.
Why June 17 is the “drop-dead date”
While Powell’s term as Fed chief ends in mid-May, the chair’s largest public-facing role won’t come up until about a month later, when a committee of Fed officials meets to set interest rates.
In addition to his job as head of the Fed’s Board of Governors, Powell also formally chairs the Federal Open Market Committee, a 12-member panel that makes monetary policy decisions, balancing the Fed’s twin goals of low unemployment and low inflation. Powell traditionally appears at a news conference after each FOMC meeting wraps up and summarizes the panel’s views on the state of the economy — an event that is closely watched by markets.
The committee’s first meeting after Powell’s term as Fed chair ends is set for June 16 and 17. That could be the true “drop-dead date for a new chair,” said Jeremy Kress, an associate professor of business law at the University of Michigan and former Federal Reserve attorney.
“That, to me, is the date that I have circled on my calendar for when this all needs to be resolved by,” Kress told CBS News, “because certainly the public and investors, and frankly, other countries around the world are going to want to see a Fed chair who does not have a cloud of uncertainty hanging over him.”
The committee unanimously reelected Powell to a one-year term as its chair in January. It is widely expected to leave interest rates flat at its next few meetings, with Powell pointing to uncertainty over the Iran war in a news conference last month.
But the other “scary possibility” is if financial markets run into some kind of trouble while there’s lingering uncertainty over the Fed, notes David Wessel, director of the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
“At moments like that, it really matters that the public and the markets and the rest of the world think, ‘OK, we have grown-ups in charge,’” he said. “And if there’s some confusion about who’s really calling shots at the Fed, that could really be destabilizing.”
Powell says he’ll stay in place if Warsh isn’t confirmed
Asked last month what he will do if a new Fed chair isn’t in place by May 15, Powell told reporters he plans to stay on as chair pro tempore until his successor is confirmed.
“That is what the law calls for, that’s what we’ve done on several occasions — including involving me — and that’s what we’re going to do in this situation,” he said.
While Powell’s four-year term as chair ends next month, his 14-year term as a rank-and-file member of the Fed’s Board of Governors doesn’t end until January 2028. Most Fed chairs have left the board altogether when their term as boss runs out. But the Justice Department’s investigation into him could introduce a wrinkle in that tradition.
Powell told reporters last month he has “no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality.”
Powell also hasn’t ruled out staying on the board even after the investigation wraps up. He has said he “will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve.”
Can the president appoint a temporary chair?
The White House has not said what Mr. Trump will do if Warsh isn’t confirmed as chair by next month — but if the president decides to challenge Powell’s decision to stick around, he might turn to a set of decades-old legal memos.
In 1978, during the Carter administration, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel argued that the president has the legal authority to pick an existing member of the Fed’s board as acting chair if the role becomes vacant.
That legal opinion has never been tested in court. And Wessel says it might be undercut by the fact that a year after it was issued, the law governing the Fed was amended to explicitly make the central bank’s chair a Senate-confirmed post, rather than just requiring the Senate to greenlight Fed nominees when they join the board.
In 1983, Reagan administration attorney John Roberts — who later became the Supreme Court’s chief justice — took the position that the president could still appoint an acting chair “if a nomination for Chairman is pending or soon to be submitted.”
Three current members of the Fed board are Trump appointees: Stephen Miran, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller. It’s not clear what would happen if Mr. Trump decided to take inspiration from the Carter and Reagan administrations and try to appoint one of them as acting chair.
“I think the best reading [of the law] is that Powell remains as [chair] pro tem,” Kress told CBS News, “but it hasn’t been challenged in the past, and if Trump purports to name his own Fed chair, then we’ve got a potential legal standoff that I can’t see being resolved anywhere else other than the Supreme Court.”
If that happens, and there’s confusion over whether Powell or the president’s pick is in charge of the Fed, Wessel said financial markets could react negatively.
“Trump might try and do something here,” he said. “I don’t think he’ll succeed, and I think if it causes a lot of angst in the financial markets, he’ll back off.”
Trump threatens to fire Powell “if he’s not leaving on time”
Mr. Trump suggested to Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo last week that if Powell doesn’t leave the Fed, he will try to fire the chair.
“Then I’ll have to fire him, OK, if he’s not leaving on time,” the president said, though it isn’t clear what the president meant by “on time” since his term on the board doesn’t expire until January 2028. “I’ve held back firing him. I’ve wanted to fire him, but I hate to be controversial.”
The president has mused on and off for months about firing Powell, who was first appointed to lead the Fed by Mr. Trump during his first term. He has made his recent frustration with the Fed chair clear, calling Powell a “moron,” a “stubborn mule” and — in a reference to Powell’s slow-and-steady approach to interest rate cuts — “Mr. Too Late.”
He is likely to face legal pushback if he tries to fire Powell because federal law says members of the Fed board can only be removed “for cause” — a term that isn’t legally defined.
The president’s power to fire Fed board members is currently being tested in court. He moved to fire Biden appointee Lisa Cook last year, accusing her of making false statements on mortgage documents. Cook sued over the firing, calling those allegations “unsubstantiated” and arguing they don’t meet the law’s requirement that firings be for cause.
Federal courts have allowed Cook to stay on the job while the case plays out. The Supreme Court took up the question of whether to pause those rulings, and at oral arguments earlier this year, the high court appeared likely to let Cook keep her position for the time being.
Kress believes that attempting to fire Powell could “needlessly complicate” Mr. Trump’s push to name a new Federal Reserve chair.
“There’s a very easy path of least resistance here for Trump to get what he wants,” he said. “For a rational person in the White House, dropping the DOJ investigation is the best way to get Warsh in as Fed chair and to get Powell out as Fed governor.”