2026年4月23日 10:05 UTC / 路透社
作者：内森·莱恩 与 杰森·朗
2026年4月23日 10:05 UTC 更新于1小时前
节点运行失败
2026年4月21日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿白宫国宴厅向全美大学体育协会全国冠军队伍发表讲话。路透社/凯莉·库珀 资料图
- 内容摘要
- 民调显示民众对选举欺诈的看法存在严重党派分歧，共和党人对选举体系的不信任度最高
- 民调发现63%的共和党人仍认为2020年大选被“窃取”
- 民调显示民众对向投票站部署军队的支持度有限
- 民调发现多数美国人支持选民身份验证要求
华盛顿4月23日路透电 —— 路透社/益普索的一项民调显示，特朗普多年来破坏美国选举公信力的行动已获得美国公众的广泛认同，这可能为11月中期选举前的虚假信息传播埋下隐患。
这项于周一结束的为期六天的民调显示，民众对选举的信任度存在严重党派分歧：尽管缺乏相关证据支持，绝大多数共和党人仍认为选举中存在广泛的欺诈行为，并支持联邦执法人员在投票站执勤。
《路透社伊朗简报》新闻简报将为您带来伊朗局势的最新动态与分析。点击此处订阅。
广告 · 滚动继续阅读
约46%的受访者认同“美国选举中有大量非公民投出欺诈性选票”这一说法，其中82%的共和党人表示认同，而持该观点的民主党人和无党派人士分别为18%和38%。
约53%的受访者表示他们对邮寄选票或缺席选票中的欺诈行为感到担忧，43%的受访者则表示不担心，党派分歧再次显现：83%的共和党人表达了担忧，而持该态度的民主党人仅为33%。
综合来看，这些回应表明，特朗普及其盟友多年来对选举体系的质疑言论已对共和党群体产生了强烈影响，尤其是围绕“非公民大量投票”和“邮寄选票不可靠”的说法，尽管多次审计和学术研究均证实这类欺诈行为极为罕见。
广告 · 滚动继续阅读
从更广泛的角度来看，民调显示许多美国人已做好接受11月选举中存在违规行为的说法的准备。届时，民主党有望夺回众议院多数席位，而由于民众对伊朗战争的不满以及居高不下的通胀，参议院的控制权也将出现变数。
特朗普的指控深入人心
致力于维护自由公平选举的无党派组织“各州联合民主中心”研究主任凯利·雷德表示，路透社/益普索的民调结果凸显了特朗普及其盟友散布的虚假言论所带来的持久影响。
“民众正在响应这些说法，尤其是共和党人，因为他们信任自己追随的领导人，这使得人们更容易相信有关选举的谎言，”雷德在接受采访时说道。
“看到人们在非公民投票等问题上出现如此严重的党派分歧，绝非好事。但幸运的是，美国的选举制度具备抵御能力，各州也已为今年的中期选举做好准备。”
对选民身份验证的支持
这项针对4557名美国成年人的在线民调误差幅度为2个百分点，结果显示两党民众普遍支持要求选民出示官方身份证件，77%的受访者支持该举措，其中包括63%的民主党人和95%的共和党人。
尽管民调结果显示民众对特朗普提出的选民身份验证要求广泛认同，但该民调并未涉及国会正在辩论的共和党提出的更严格选举法案。
《拯救选举法案》要求在联邦选举中登记或更新选民登记时必须提供美国公民身份证明，该法案已在众议院获得通过，但在参议院面临重重阻力。民主党人警告该法案会剥夺选民选举权，而目前已有23个以共和党为主的州采用了该法案中的相关条款。
民调发现，63%的共和党人相信特朗普提出的“2020年大选被窃取”的虚假指控——尽管没有证据支持他反复提出的存在大规模欺诈的说法，但这一比例近年来基本保持不变。
相比之下，仅有9%的民主党人和21%的无党派人士认为特朗普是因选举违规而输掉2020年大选的。
对自身选票被计入的信心
两党多数民众，包括79%的民主党人和71%的共和党人，表示他们总体上相信自己的选票会在选举中被计入。雷德指出，这一发现是民调中的一线希望。
“这些关于选举的阴谋论并未导致民众丧失对自己的选票将按意愿被计入的信心，”雷德补充道，她所在组织的研究显示，这种信心与选民投票率密切相关。
在1月份接受《纽约时报》采访时，特朗普表示他后悔在2020年大选期间没有部署国民警卫队扣押投票机器，并在2月份接受前联邦调查局副局长丹·邦吉诺的播客采访时称，共和党人“应该将选举体系国有化”。
民调发现民众对这一想法的支持度有限，仅有28%的美国人支持向投票站部署军队。共和党人态度分化，45%的人支持该举措，54%的人反对。
与此同时，62%的共和党人支持在投票站部署联邦执法人员，而持该观点的民主党人和无党派人士分别为23%和36%。
内森·莱恩在康涅狄格州威尔顿、杰森·朗在华盛顿报道；斯科特·马龙与迪帕·巴宾顿编辑
我们的报道准则：路透社汤姆森信托原则。
Trump’s election fraud claims spread distrust before midterms, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
April 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC / Reuters
By Nathan Layne and Jason Lange
April 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
节点运行失败
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks to NCAA Collegiate National Champions in the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 21, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper/File Photo
- Poll shows sharp partisan divide on election fraud beliefs, with Republicans most distrustful
- 63% of Republicans still believe 2020 election was stolen from Trump, poll finds
- Limited support found for deploying troops to polling places, poll shows
- Majority of Americans support voter ID requirements, poll finds
WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s years-long campaign to undermine faith in U.S. elections has gained broad traction with the American public, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows, potentially creating fertile ground for misinformation heading into November’s midterm elections.
The six-day poll completed Monday showed sharp partisan divides over trust in elections, with solid majorities of Republicans saying fraud is widespread — despite a lack of evidence to support this claim — and favoring federal law enforcement presence at polls.
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
Some 46% of respondents said they agreed with the statement that there are large numbers of fraudulent ballots cast by non-citizens in U.S. elections, with 82% of Republicans agreeing compared with 18% of Democrats and 38% of independents.
About 53% of respondents said they were worried about fraudulent mail‑in or absentee ballots, compared with 43% who said they were not, with partisan division again apparent: 83% of Republicans expressed concern, versus 33% of Democrats.
Taken together, the responses indicate that years of messaging by Trump and his allies casting doubt on voting have resonated strongly with Republicans, particularly around claims that non‑citizens vote in significant numbers and that mail‑in ballots are unreliable, despite repeated audits and academic research finding fraud in either case to be exceedingly rare.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
More broadly, the poll suggests that many Americans have been primed to accept claims of wrongdoing in November’s elections, when Democrats are favored to win back the House of Representatives and control of the Senate will also be up for grabs amid voter discontent over the war with Iran and stubbornly high inflation.
TRUMP’S CLAIMS TAKE ROOT
Kelly Rader, research director at States United Democracy Center, a nonpartisan group that works to safeguard free and fair elections, said the Reuters/Ipsos poll results point to the enduring impact of false claims made by Trump and his allies.
“People are responding to them, particularly Republicans, because they’re listening to the leaders that they trust, and it’s creating this vulnerability in people to believe lies about the election,” Rader said in an interview.
“It’s never fun to see these big partisan splits in beliefs like on non-citizen voting. But luckily, the system is built to withstand this, and states are ready for this year’s midterms.”
SUPPORT FOR VOTER ID
The online poll of 4,557 U.S. adults, with a 2 percentage point margin of error, found bipartisan support for requiring voters to show official identification, with 77% backing the idea, including 63% of Democrats and 95% of Republicans.
While the responses suggested broad sympathy with Trump’s call for voter ID requirements, the poll did not address stricter Republican-proposed measures under debate in Congress.
The SAVE Act, which would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register or update voter registration for federal elections, has passed the House but faces an uphill battle in the Senate amid Democratic warnings of disenfranchisement, even as 23 mostly Republican-led states have adopted provisions in the bill.
The poll found that 63% of Republicans believe Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him — a share that has remained largely unchanged in recent years, despite the absence of evidence supporting his repeated claims of widespread fraud.
By comparison, only 9% of Democrats and 21% of independents said they believed Trump lost in 2020 due to wrongdoing.
CONFIDENCE OWN BALLOTS WILL BE COUNTED
A bipartisan majority of Americans, including 79% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans, said they are generally confident their ballots will be counted in elections — a finding Rader pointed to as a silver lining in the poll.
“These conspiracy theories about elections have not caused people to lose faith that their own vote will be counted as they intended,” Rader said, adding that her organization’s research shows this confidence is closely tied to voter turnout.
In a January interview with the New York Times, Trump said he regretted not deploying the National Guard to seize voting machines in the 2020 election, and said that Republicans “ought to nationalize the voting” during an an appearance on former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino’s podcast in February.
The poll found limited support for that idea, with only 28% of Americans backing the deployment of troops to polling places. Republicans were split, with 45% in favor and 54% opposed.
At the same time, 62% of Republicans supported having federal law enforcement present at polling places, compared with 23% of Democrats and 36% of independents.
Reporting by Nathan Layne in Wilton, Connecticut, and Jason Lange in Washington; editing by Scott Malone and Deepa Babington
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.