2026年2月19日 / 美国东部时间下午3:28 / CBS新闻
油价正在攀升，有迹象表明美国可能计划对伊朗发动军事打击，这引发了人们对该地区冲突升级可能带来的经济影响的担忧。
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特朗普总统针对伊朗有争议的核计划加大了压力，伊朗拥有世界上一些最大的石油储备。经济学家表示，两国之间的公开敌对行动可能会限制全球石油流动，推高美国能源价格并加剧通胀。
尽管特朗普尚未就是否发动打击做出最终决定，但熟悉相关讨论的消息人士告诉CBS新闻，国家安全高级官员已告知总统，军方可能最早在周六就准备就绪。
在周四特朗普“和平委员会”的首次会议上，总统表示伊朗有大约10天时间达成协议，结束其核计划，否则“坏事将会发生”。
“也许我们会达成协议，”他说，“在接下来的10天左右，你们会看到结果。”
油价可能上涨多高？
最直接的经济影响将体现在石油市场，因为伊朗的原油产量及其对霍尔木兹海峡北侧的控制——该海峡用于运输全球约20%日石油供应的船只。周四，美国基准原油每桶上涨2.6%，达到66.71美元，较年初上涨16%。
华尔街分析师指出，军事冲突的影响将取决于美国袭击的规模和意图，包括美军是否避免打击伊朗石油设施以及伊朗的任何回应。
“如果（伊朗的）石油基础设施遭到打击且石油供应受到影响……我们预计油价可能上涨至每桶100美元，特别是因为这会增加伊朗试图封锁霍尔木兹海峡航运路线的可能性，”凯投宏观（Capital Economics）分析师在最近的研究报告中表示。
霍尔木兹海峡最窄处仅21英里宽，容易受到破坏。该海峡连接波斯湾与阿曼湾和阿拉伯海，该地区其他主要产油国也通过它将原油运往其他国家。
尽管油价已大幅上涨，但仍远低于2022年3月每桶123美元的近期峰值。专家指出，即使美国打击伊朗，对石油供应的影响可能是轻微或短暂的，这增加了对全球经济影响的不确定性。
美国袭击可能如何影响通胀？
凯投宏观指出，伊朗每天生产470万桶石油，约占全球供应的4.4%。虽然伊朗大部分石油运往中国，但任何中断都可能通过推高石油价格影响全球经济。
对美国消费者来说，最直接的影响可能是加油站价格上涨，这可能加剧家庭预算压力，并减缓近期汽油价格同比下降的趋势。
“原油价格[正在]推高美国袭击伊朗的风险，”Gas Buddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德汉（Patrick De Haan）周四在社交媒体上写道，“这将加剧春季汽油价格上涨，但不一定会导致2022年式的飙升。”
凯投宏观表示，油价每年上涨5%通常会使美国等发达经济体的平均通胀率上升约0.1个百分点。该投资咨询公司分析师估计，若油价升至每桶100美元，通胀可能上升1个百分点；若升至80美元，通胀可能上升约0.5个百分点。
“显然，油价上涨及最终通胀的具体上行风险高度不确定，”他们在给客户的报告中写道。
1月份美国通胀率降至2.4%的年率，但价格仍以快于美联储2%年目标的速度上涨。通胀重新加速可能导致美联储推迟进一步降息，这对寻求贷款的借款人和商业投资构成潜在阻力。
编辑：Alain Sherter
美联社对本报道有贡献。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/why-the-us-ramped-up-its-military-presence-near-iran/
How a U.S. strike on Iran could affect American drivers and borrowers
February 19, 2026 / 3:28 PM EST / CBS News
Oil prices are climbing amid signs the U.S. may be planning to launch military strikes on Iran, raising questions about the potential economic fallout of heightened conflict in the region.
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President Trump has ratcheted up pressure on Iran, home to some of the world’s largest oil reserves, over the country’s disputed nuclear program. Open hostilities between the countries could constrict global oil flows, raising U.S. energy prices and driving up inflation, according to economists.
While Mr. Trump hasn’t yet made a final decision about whether to strike, top national security officials have told the president that the military could be ready as soon as Saturday, sources familiar with the discussions have told CBS News.
At the inaugural meeting for Mr. Trump’s “Board of Peace” on Thursday, the president said Iran has about 10 days to make a deal ending its nuclear program, or “bad things will happen.”
“Maybe we’re going to make a deal,” he said. “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”
How high could oil prices rise?
The most immediate economic impact would be felt in the oil market, given that Iran’s crude production and its control of the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, which is used by ships carrying about 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. On Thursday, a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude rose 2.6% to $66.71, a 16% increase since the start of the year.
The impact of a military conflict would depend on the scale and intent of an American attack, including whether U.S. forces avoided strikes on Iranian oil facilities and on any response from Tehran, Wall Street analysts noted.
“If [Iran’s] oil infrastructure is hit and oil supplies are affected … we suspect that oil prices could rise towards $100 per barrel, especially as that would raise the probability that Iran attempts to block shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz,” Capital Economics analysts said in a recent research note.
At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is just 21 miles wide, making it vulnerable to disruption. The channel, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is used by other major oil-producing nations in the region to ship crude to other countries.
Although oil prices have jumped, they remain far below their most recent peak of $123 per barrel in March 2022. Even if the U.S. strikes Iran, the impact on oil supplies may be minimal or short-lived, adding to the uncertainty of the impact on the global economy, experts noted.
How could a U.S. attack affect inflation?
Iran produces 4.7 million barrels of oil per day, or about 4.4% of global supplies, Capital Economics notes. While most of Iran’s oil is shipped to China, any disruption could trickle through the world economy by pushing up petroleum prices.
For U.S. consumers, the most immediate impact could be higher prices at the pump, potentially straining household budgets and slowing the recent year-over-year decline in gas prices.
“Crude oil prices [are] pushing up on elevated risk of U.S. attacks on Iran,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, wrote Thursday on social media. “This will enhance the spring rise that gas prices will see, but not necessarily cause a 2022-era spike.”
A 5% annual increase in oil prices typically adds about 0.1 percentage points to average inflation across advanced economies like the U.S., according to Capital Economics. That means inflation could rise by 1 percentage point if oil prices rose to $100 per barrel and about 0.5 percentage points at $80 per barrel, analysts with the investment advisory firm estimated.
“Clearly, the precise upside to oil prices and ultimately inflation is highly uncertain,” they wrote in a note to clients.
U.S. inflation in January cooled to a 2.4% annual rate, but prices are still rising faster than the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. A reacceleration in inflation could cause the Fed to hold off on additional rate cuts, a potential headwind for borrowers seeking loans and for business investment.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/why-the-us-ramped-up-its-military-presence-near-iran/
