2026-02-03T12:30:00-0500 / CBS新闻
得克萨斯州两场特别选举中民主党获胜，正提升该党对11月选举的希望，其中一场选举削弱了众议院议长迈克·约翰逊本就岌岌可危的多数优势，另一场则在全国范围内给共和党带来冲击。
周六的国会补选中，克里斯蒂安·梅内菲击败另一名民主党人，填补了休斯顿地区深蓝选区的空缺。这使众议院共和党人的多数优势缩小至218-214。这意味着，如果形势不变，约翰逊现在在党派投票中只能失去一名共和党人。
但周末更大的意外发生在沃思堡塔兰特县一场关注度较低的州参议院选举中，民主党人泰勒·雷梅特以57%-43%的优势击败共和党人利·万布甘斯。这对民主党来说是重大转变，他们赢得了一个40多年来从未赢得的席位——该地区在2024年总统选举中特朗普以17个百分点获胜。
特朗普在选举前夕的社交媒体帖子中支持了万布甘斯。
雷梅特在接受CBS新闻《The Takeout》采访时表示，他的竞选团队通过”实地走访、挨家挨户敲门、打电话并真正倾听”取得了进展。
作为工会领袖的雷梅特建议其他长期处于劣势的民主党人”关注他们的选区和工薪阶层面临的问题”。
这场选举投票率较低，但得克萨斯州副州长、共和党人丹·帕特里克提前就警告称，他担心选举前民主党人的热情，他仍将这次意外称为”警钟”。
“我们的选民不能想当然，”帕特里克在社交媒体帖子中写道，”我知道得克萨斯州共和党基层的活力和力量。我们将以新的决心奋力拼搏，在11月夺回这个席位。我们将保持得克萨斯州的红色（共和党）。”
休斯顿莱斯大学的政治学家马克·琼斯表示，这场选举让共和党人紧张的原因是，这可能表明他们正在失去温和派的支持。
“得克萨斯州共和党人历来依赖这样一个事实：当关键时刻来临时，11月的温和派共和党人仍会支持共和党，而不是选择民主党候选人，”琼斯说，”我认为风险在于，如果特朗普政府和全国共和党人走得太远，他们与温和派共和党人之间的距离将超过温和派共和党人与民主党候选人之间的距离。”
雷梅特和万布甘斯将于11月再次对决，由于州议会直到2027年才会召开会议，雷梅特不太可能在奥斯汀参与任何投票，因此这次胜利在很大程度上具有象征意义。
佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯也敲响了警钟。他指出特别选举往往会产生意外结果，但得克萨斯州参议院选区的摇摆”不容忽视。共和党人应该清醒地认识到中期选举前的政治环境”。
特朗普周日告诉记者，”你不知道这些结果是否具有可转移性”。特朗普在选举日前曾两次发帖为万布甘斯拉票。
得克萨斯州民主党战略家查克·罗查指出，共和党似乎正在失去过去两次选举中成功争取到的选民支持。
“绝对应该让得克萨斯州共和党人感到恐惧的是，拉丁裔选民在这次选举中大幅转向民主党，”罗查表示，他正在得克萨斯州（孤星州）和全国范围内参与众议院和参议院的竞选活动，”得克萨斯州共和党人将拉丁裔作为其中期重新划分选区策略的核心，现在这将让他们付出代价。”
共和党人寄望重新划分选区带来的助力
为帮助共和党保住众议院多数席位，特朗普去年启动了中期重新划分得克萨斯州国会选区的工作——特别是在南得克萨斯州——为共和党净增五个席位。
重新划分选区运动可能使梅内菲在国会的长期前途变得不确定，因为新地图将他与资深休斯顿众议员、同为民主党人的阿尔·格林置于同一选区。
但周六塔兰特县州参议院选举的结果表明，重新划分选区可能使约翰逊的众议院多数地位更加岌岌可危。得克萨斯州政治项目的约书亚·布兰克表示，重新划分选区存在权衡：为了将五个民主党选区转为共和党倾向的选区，制图人员需要让一些深红选区略微偏向民主党，这给该党带来了一些风险。
“在得克萨斯州重新划分选区期间及之后，没有迹象表明这些努力是基于对选民的极其复杂的分析，”布兰克说，”它们似乎是基于一年、一次选举，这可能是一个错误——我认为这是共和党人今天早上正在自问的问题。”
民主党利用低投票率
共和党人很快指出，特别选举通常投票率较低，而这次选举尤其在1月一个历史性冷锋期间的周六举行，而该州通常冬季气候温和。
琼斯指出，周六前就有共和党人面临麻烦的迹象，因为雷梅特在11月特别选举中已经获得最多选票，但塔兰特县共和党人直到很晚才发出警告。
尽管特朗普上周两次发帖提及这场选举，但共和党”没有做必要的工作来动员共和党人以他们需要的方式投票”，琼斯说。
虽然特朗普11月不会出现在选票上，但约翰·科宁参议员的席位将举行一场重磅美国参议院选举，预计将比上周末的特别选举吸引更多共和党人投票。得克萨斯州不在民主党11月关注的参议院席位名单上，但尽管如此，参议院选举仍可能吸引创纪录的筹款资金和全国关注。
“归根结底，这个选区的共和党选民比民主党选民多，”琼斯说，”只是民主党选民更积极动员，一些温和派共和党人转而投票给民主党候选人。”
但一些得克萨斯州政治观察人士看到了共和党面临的潜在警告信号。
Libre（一个动员拉丁裔的全国性基层组织）战略总监豪尔赫·马丁内斯表示，有些共和党人总体上支持特朗普，而另一些人则不喜欢他的所作所为。
“当我观察独立选民和我交谈过的一些共和党人时，他们对当地ICE突袭行动感到担忧，比如在建筑工地的行动，”马丁内斯说。
马丁内斯一直在领导该组织在得克萨斯州各地挨家挨户敲门的活动，以确定选民最紧迫的问题，然后再在国会选举中推出支持。马丁内斯表示，经济仍然是最重要的优先事项，选民认可油价下降，但移民问题也在人们心中。
“人们可能对全国发生的事情感到不满，但ICE（美国移民和海关执法局）正在执行法律，如果他们不喜欢，就必须与国会议员合作改变这一点。”
雷梅特告诉CBS新闻，周六选举中最有力的问题是教育和生活成本。
琼斯表示，尽管2024年特朗普在该地区有强劲支持，但塔兰特县仍是一个共和党选区，却已成为温和派共和党选区。万布甘斯是爱国者移动电话公司高管，在11月的初选中是更保守的共和党候选人。
得克萨斯州即将到来的选举
2月17日开始提前投票，3月3日举行初选。虽然民主党极不可能在共和党控制的得克萨斯州立法机构中取得重大进展，但民主党已将目光锁定在即将举行的美国参议院选举上，一些人认为如果共和党州检察长肯·帕克斯顿赢得共和党初选，该席位可能会被民主党赢得。民主党有两名候选人参加3月参议院选举：美国众议员贾丝明·克罗克特和州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科。自1994年以来，民主党尚未在得克萨斯州赢得过全州范围的选举。
帕克斯顿自担任州最高执法官员以来面临诸多个人和职业丑闻，他正在挑战自2003年起在参议院任职的共和党参议员约翰·科宁。众议员韦斯利·亨特也在参选。
帕克斯顿是特朗普的亲密盟友，也是最早支持其2024年竞选的共和党人之一。但特朗普到目前为止拒绝在此次竞选中表态，尽管他在周日似乎对此含糊其辞，称他”正在认真考虑”支持。
政治学家琼斯表示，如果特朗普支持科宁（他是长期的参议院共和党多数党督导，普遍被认为更具选举优势），帕克斯顿将是周日结果中的”大输家”。
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Texas Republican voters “cannot take anything for granted” after Democrats’ surprise upset in state Senate race
2026-02-03T12:30:00-0500 / CBS News
Democrats’ victories in a pair of special elections in Texas are raising the party’s hopes for November, with one race cutting into Speaker Mike Johnson’s already razor-thin majority in the House and the other sending shockwaves through the Republican Party nationwide.
In a congressional runoff on Saturday, Christian Menefee defeated another Democrat to fill a vacant seat in a deep-blue district in the Houston area. This narrows House Republicans’ majority in the chamber to 218-214. And it means that if conditions stay the same, Johnson can now only afford to lose a single Republican on party-line votes.
But the weekend’s bigger upset came in a lower-profile state Senate race in Fort Worth’s Tarrant County, where Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by a 57%-43% margin. It’s a major flip for Democrats, gaining a seat that hadn’t been won by the party in over 40 years — in an area that went for President Trump in 2024 by 17 points.
Mr. Trump had endorsed Wambsganss in a social media post on the eve of the election.
In an interview with CBS News’ “The Takeout” on Monday, Rehmet said his campaign made inroads by “going and showing up, knocking doors, making phone calls and really listening.”
Rehmet, a union leader, advised other longshot Democrats to “focus on their district and focus on the issues that working people face.”
It was a low-turnout race, but GOP Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who had sounded the alarm ahead of time that he was worried about Democrats’ enthusiasm before the race, still referred to the upset as a “wake-up call.”
“Our voters cannot take anything for granted,” Patrick wrote in a social media post. “I know the energy and strength the Republican grassroots in Texas possess. We will come out fighting with a new resolve, and we will take this seat back in November. We will keep Texas red.”
Political scientist Mark Jones, of Rice University in Houston, says the reason this race is making Republicans nervous is that it may be a sign that they’re losing the support of moderates.
“Texas Republicans have historically relied on the reality that when push comes to shove, moderate Republicans in November stay with the GOP instead of going with the Democratic alternative,” Jones said. “And I think the risk you run is if the Trump administration and Republicans nationally go too far, the distance between them and moderate Republicans becomes greater than the distance between moderate Republicans and Democratic candidates.”
Rehmet and Wambsganss will face each other again in November, and since the state legislature is not scheduled to be in session until 2027, it’s unlikely Rehmet will ever participate in any votes in Austin, making the victory largely symbolic.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also sounded the alarm. While noting that special elections can often produce unexpected results, he said the swing in the Texas state Senate district is “not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms.”
Mr. Trump told reporters Sunday that “you don’t know whether or not” the results are “transferrable.” Mr. Trump had posted twice before Election Day to get out the vote for Wambsganss.
Texas Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha pointed out that Republicans seem to be losing support from a constituency they’ve had some success with in the past two elections.
“What should absolutely terrify Texas Republicans is that Latino voters moved dramatically back to Democrats in this election,” said Rocha, who is working on House and Senate races in the Lone Star State and nationally. “Texas Republicans made Latinos a centerpiece of their mid-cycle gerrymandering strategy, and now it’s going to bite them in the ass.”
Republicans relying on boost from redistricting
Mr. Trump, in an effort to help the GOP hold the House, last year kicked off a mid-decade push to redraw Texas’ congressional districts — especially in South Texas — and net up to five seats for Republicans.
The redistricting campaign could make Menefee’s long-term future in Congress uncertain because the new maps put him in the same district as longtime Houston Rep. Al Green, a fellow Democrat.
But Saturday’s results in the Tarrant County state Senate race indicated the redistricting push could make Johnson’s House majority more precarious. Redistricting comes with tradeoffs: In order to turn five Democratic districts into GOP-leaning districts, mapmakers needed to make some solid-red districts slightly more Democratic, creating some risks for the party, said Joshua Blank of the Texas Politics Project.
“There’s been no indication at the time of or since the redistricting effort here in Texas that those efforts were based off some overwhelmingly sophisticated analysis of the electorate,” Blank said. “They appear to have been based off one year, one election and that may have been a mistake — and I think that question that Republicans are asking themselves this morning.”
Democrats take advantage of low turnout
Republicans have been quick to note that special elections often bring out low turnout, and this one in particular occurred on a Saturday in January during a historic cold front in a state with typically moderate winters.
Jones noted that there were signs of trouble for Republicans ahead of Saturday, since Rehmet had already won the most votes in the November special election, but the Tarrant County Republicans didn’t start sounding the alarm until much later.
Even though Mr. Trump posted twice about the race last week, the GOP “didn’t do the work they needed to mobilize the Republicans to turn out the vote the way they needed to,” Jones said.
While Mr. Trump will not be on the ticket in November, there will be a blockbuster U.S. Senate race for Sen. John Cornyn’s seat that’s likely to turn out far more Republicans than last weekend’s special election. Texas isn’t on the list of Senate seats Democrats are focusing on in November, but nonetheless, the Senate race is still likely to attract record fundraising money and national attention.
“At the end of the day, there are more Republican voters in this district than there are Democratic voters,” Jones said. “It’s just that Democratic voters were more mobilized, and some of those moderate Republicans defected and voted for the Democratic candidate.”
But some Texas politics watchers see potential warning signs for Republicans.
Jorge Martinez, strategic director of Libre, a national grassroots organization that mobilizes Latinos, says that there are Republicans who largely support Mr. Trump, others don’t like everything he’s doing.
“When I look at independent voters and some Republicans that I’ve talked to, they’re concerned with some of the ICE raids here locally as there have been operations at housing construction sites,” Martinez said.
Martinez has been leading the organization’s efforts to knock on doors across Texas in efforts to identify the most pressing issues for voters ahead of rolling out endorsements in congressional races. The economy continues to be the most important priority, Martinez says, with voters acknowledging lower gas prices, but immigration is on people’s minds.
“People might be upset with what’s happening around the country, but ICE is enforcing the laws in the books and if they don’t like it, they have to work with a member of Congress to change that.”
Rehmet told CBS News that the most potent issues in Saturday’s race were education and the cost of living.
Although Tarrant County is a Republican district, it has become a moderate GOP district, Jones said, despite its strong support for Mr. Trump in 2024. Wambsganss, an executive for the Patriot Mobile phone company, was the more conservative Republican running in November’s primary election.
Texas’ upcoming races
Early voting kicks off on Feb. 17 for the March 3 primary. While Democrats are extremely unlikely to make significant gains in the GOP-controlled Texas Legislature, Democrats have zeroed in on the U.S. Senate race, which some see as winnable if Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP primary. Democrats have two candidates competing in the March primary for the Senate race: U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.
Paxton, who has faced a number of personal and professional scandals since taking office as the state’s top law-enforcement officer, is challenging GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2003. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also running.
Paxton is a close ally of Mr. Trump’s, and was one of the first Republicans to endorse his 2024 election bid. But Mr. Trump has so far refused to make an endorsement in the race, although he appeared to be waffling on that on Sunday, saying he is “giving a very serious thought” to an endorsement.
If Mr. Trump endorses Cornyn, who was the longtime GOP majority whip in the Senate and is generally seen as more electable, Jones, the political scientist, said Paxton would be the “major loser” in Sunday’s results.
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