2026-04-16 10:08:20 UTC / 路透社
作者：安·萨菲尔
2026年4月16日 美国东部时间上午10:08 更新于2小时前
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Item 1 of 3 2017年11月2日，美国华盛顿白宫，时任美国总统唐纳德·特朗普注视着其提名的美联储主席人选杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表讲话。路透社/卡洛斯·巴里娅 资料图
[1/3]2017年11月2日，美国华盛顿白宫，时任美国总统唐纳德·特朗普注视着其提名的美联储主席人选杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表讲话。路透社/卡洛斯·巴里娅 资料图 购买授权许可，将在新标签页打开
- 美联储主席提名沃什的参议院确认听证会定于4月21日举行
- 鲍威尔担任美国央行行长的任期将于5月15日结束
- 关键共和党参议员誓言将阻挠沃什的确认程序，除非针对鲍威尔的调查结束
- 鲍威尔表示将以“临时”美联储主席身份填补任何领导空缺
- 特朗普威胁若鲍威尔留任将解雇他；总统的此项权力存在争议
4月16日（路透社）——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席凯文·沃什能否顺利按时完成交接的前景愈发岌岌可危，这可能引发届时由谁执掌美联储的争端。
越来越多人怀疑，即便参议院银行委员会将于下周二就沃什的提名举行听证会，沃什也无法在现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期于5月15日结束前获得参议院全院确认。
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沃什的提名确认陷入僵局，主要原因是共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯的反对。蒂利斯誓言将阻挠确认程序，直至司法部结束对鲍威尔监督美联储华盛顿总部翻新工程的调查。
尽管银行委员会主席、共和党参议员蒂姆·斯科特表示，他相信司法部将在“未来几周”内结束调查，但目前没有任何缓和迹象。特朗普表示，他希望看到调查继续进行，即便本月一名联邦法官驳回了政府的传票，称其不过是为了按总统意愿向鲍威尔施压以降低利率的借口。
美国哥伦比亚特区检察官让妮娜·皮尔罗是特朗普的亲密盟友，她已承诺将就法官的裁决提起上诉。周二，两名政府检察官和一名调查员前往美联储翻新工程现场，要求参观但被拒绝。
美联储一名律师通过电子邮件对此次事件提出谴责，蒂利斯则在推特上发布了臭名昭著的倒霉喜剧团体《活宝三人组》的照片。
5月15日之后会发生什么？
若沃什在5月15日前未获确认，鲍威尔已表示他将担任美联储七人理事会的“临时”主席，因为“这是法律要求的”，也是美联储此前曾采取过的做法。
特朗普周三表示，如果鲍威尔留任，他将解雇鲍威尔。此举将史无前例，势必引发法律挑战，正如去年夏天总统试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克那样。
该案目前正在美国最高法院审理中，库克仍在其岗位上。
分析师表示，白宫也可能尝试任命另一位美联储理事——或许是特朗普前经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰——接替鲍威尔。
目前尚不清楚此举在法庭上是否站得住脚。
1978年，吉米·卡特总统避免了美联储领导层出现空缺，他任命阿瑟·伯恩斯继续担任代理美联储主席，当时卡特提名的央行行长人选正在等待确认程序。
但此举发生在法律要求总统提名的美联储主席人选需经参议院批准之前。此后出台的另一项立法——1998年《联邦空缺改革法案》——禁止总统指定一名代理官员领导多成员组成的机构理事会。
“在白宫方面，是否挑战这项规定是他们的选择，”预测公司LH Meyer的分析师德里克·唐表示，“如果白宫采取极端手段，提起诉讼并提出异议，可能会动摇（市场）对美联储的信心”，不过他补充道，目前市场似乎并未对未来可能出现的动荡感到担忧。
棘手的时间节点
伊朗战争推高油价，加剧通胀并挤压家庭预算，外界普遍认为美联储近期不太可能降息。
“在能源价格冲击之际，对央行施加政治风险并非毫无代价，即便最终不了了之，”Evercore ISI副主席克里希纳·古哈表示，“这至少在边际上增加了通胀预期上升的风险，因为市场担心美联储无法在中期内采取一切必要措施将通胀拉回目标水平。”
在下周二的参议院银行委员会听证会上，沃什可能会面对友好的共和党多数派议员，同时也会遭到民主党议员的尖锐质询。民主党议员担心，确认特朗普提名的人选会危及美联储的独立性。
“白宫仍致力于与参议院合作，迅速确认凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席，”白宫发言人库什·德赛表示。
暂且不提蒂利斯的反对，时间已经非常紧迫。参议院从举行听证会到确认美联储提名人选仅用不到一个月的情况仅有一次，且那次只是针对普通美联储理事，而非全球最重要央行的行长。
特朗普政府官员此前曾有信心沃什能及时获得确认。
这或许正是“求仁得仁，未必是福”。
“未来几个月，实际情况是通胀将非常高，”LH Meyer的唐表示，“你真的想让自己的人上位，成为维持高利率的替罪羊吗？”
由安·萨菲尔、雅各布·博亚奇、霍华德·施耐德和迈克尔·S·德比报道；丹·伯恩斯和保罗·西马奥编辑
我们的准则：汤森路透信托原则。
Fed leadership transition on shaky ground as clock ticks on Powell’s term
2026-04-16 10:08:20 UTC / Reuters
By Ann Saphir
April 16, 2026 10:08 AM UTC Updated 2 hours ago
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Item 1 of 3 U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Jerome Powell, his nominee to become chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 2, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo
[1/3]U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Jerome Powell, his nominee to become chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 2, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Senate confirmation hearing for Fed chief nominee Warsh set for April 21
- Powell’s term as head of US central bank ends on May 15
- Key Republican senator has vowed to block Warsh confirmation until probe into Powell ends
- Powell says he’ll fill any leadership gap as ‘pro tem’ Fed chair
- Trump threatens to fire Powell if he stays on; president’s right to do so is contested
April 16 (Reuters) – The prospect of a smooth-and-on-time transition to U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick for the next Federal Reserve chief, Kevin Warsh, looks increasingly to be on shaky ground, setting up a possible clash over who runs things in the meantime.
There are growing doubts that Warsh will win confirmation from the full Senate by the end of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s leadership term on May 15, even as the Senate Banking Committee is set to proceed next Tuesday with a hearing on the nomination.
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The storm clouds have gathered over Warsh’s confirmation largely as a result of opposition from Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who has vowed to block the process until the Department of Justice ends an investigation of Powell’s oversight of renovations to the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, D.C.
And while Republican Senator Tim Scott, who chairs the banking committee, says he is confident the DOJ will wrap up its probe in the next “several weeks,” there’s no sign of an off-ramp. Trump said he wants to see the investigation through, even after a federal judge this month quashed the government’s subpoenas as no more than a pretext for putting pressure on Powell to lower interest rates, as the president wishes.
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U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro, a close ally of Trump, has promised to appeal the judge’s decision, and on Tuesday two government prosecutors and an investigator visited the Fed’s renovation job site and asked to tour it, but were turned away.
The incident drew an emailed rebuke from a Fed lawyer and a tweet from Tillis with a photo of the notoriously hapless “Three Stooges” comedy troupe.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER MAY 15?
If Warsh is not confirmed by May 15, Powell has said he will serve as the “pro tem” chair of the Fed’s seven-member Board of Governors, because “that is what the law calls for” and that is what the central bank has done previously.
Trump said on Wednesday that he would fire Powell if he stayed on. Such a move would be unprecedented and would surely invite a legal challenge, as did the president’s attempt last summer to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
That case is pending at the U.S. Supreme Court, and Cook remains in her job.
The White House also could try to appoint another Fed governor – perhaps Stephen Miran, Trump’s former economic advisor – in Powell’s place, analysts said.
Whether such a move would hold up in the courts is not clear.
In 1978, President Jimmy Carter avoided a gap in the Fed leadership when he appointed Arthur Burns to remain as acting Fed chief while Carter’s pick for the top job was going through the confirmation process.
But that move occurred before the law changed to require Senate approval of a president’s Fed chief pick. Another piece of legislation enacted since then – the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998 – bars the president from designating an acting officer to run a multi-member board at agencies.
“On the White House side, it’s their choice whether or not to challenge it,” said Derek Tang, an analyst with forecasting firm LH Meyer. “If the White House does go after the nuclear option and start suing and challenging things, then it might shake the (market’s) confidence in the Fed,” though he added that markets so far seem unfazed by the potential drama ahead.
TRICKY TIMING
With high oil prices from the Iran war pushing up inflation and squeezing family budgets, the Fed is seen as unlikely to deliver a rate cut anytime soon.
“Political pressure on the central bank at a time of an energy price shock is not risk-free, even if it ultimately goes nowhere,” Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha said. “It increases – at least at the margin – the risk inflation expectations could rise on fears the Fed will not be able to do whatever is required to return inflation to target in the medium term.”
At next week’s Senate banking panel hearing, Warsh is likely to face a friendly Republican majority and hostile questioning from Democratic lawmakers who worry that confirming Trump’s pick for the job will imperil the central bank’s independence.
“The White House remains focused on working with the Senate to swiftly confirm Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.
Tillis’ opposition aside, the timing is tight. The Senate has squeezed a Fed nominee through from hearing to confirmation in less than a month only once, and that was just for a regular Fed governor, not for the leader of the world’s most important central bank.
Trump administration officials have expressed confidence that Warsh will be confirmed in time.
It may be a case of “be careful what you wish for.”
“In the next few months, the reality on the ground is inflation is going to be really high,” LH Meyer’s Tang said. “Do you really want one of your guys in place to be the fall guy for keeping rates high?”
Reporting by Ann Saphir, Jacob Bogage, Howard Schneider and Michael S. Derby; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.