2026-04-30 04:05 UTC / 路透社
作者：安·萨菲尔
2026年4月30日 世界标准时间4:05 更新于3小时前
摘要
美联储12名投票委员中有4人周三投下反对票，为34年来最多
- 沃什称“家庭分歧”态势有助于提升美联储决策质量
- 沃什在角逐美联储主席一职的道路上扫清关键障碍
(2026年4月30日 路透电) 凯文·沃什曾期待美联储内部上演一场“家庭分歧”，而这场分歧在他正式上任前就已经爆发。
“欢迎来到美联储持不同意见的新时代，”海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家希瑟·朗在美联储周三宣布维持政策利率不变后表示。同时公布的还有，美联储12名投票委员中有4人投下反对票，这是自1992年以来反对票最多的一次。
路透社伊朗局势简报新闻简报将为您带来伊朗战争的最新动态与分析，点击此处订阅。
“伊朗战争让美联储的工作变得异常复杂，各界对下一步政策走向存在广泛分歧，”朗说道，“目前美联储按兵不动，但祝新任美联储主席凯文·沃什好运，未来他要设法达成政策共识可不容易。”
美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席凯文·沃什于2026年4月21日在华盛顿国会山出席参议院银行委员会的确认听证会作证。路透社/伊丽莎白·弗朗茨/档案照片
沃什将于5月15日正式接任美联储主席一职，当天恰逢杰罗姆·鲍威尔八年任期结束，而分歧时代就始于沃什在参议院扫清关键障碍的这一天。
沃什曾承诺要在美联储推行“范式变革”，他在上周的确认听证会上告诉议员们，他认为美联储过于僵化，他希望能稍微打破这种局面。
“比起一些会议，我更倾向于不那么循规蹈矩的会议，参会人员不要照着预先写好的发言稿发言，”沃什说，“如果央行内部能出现这种良性的‘家庭分歧’，我认为他们能做出更优质的决策，万一出现失误，也能更快地纠正过来。”
在周三的议息会议上，美联储 policymakers 就是否修改会后声明展开了鲍威尔所称的“激烈讨论”。修改后的声明将暗示，美联储下一步行动加息或降息皆有可能。
三名反对票持有者——克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克、达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里·洛根和明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里——支持修改声明。鲍威尔表示，考虑到伊朗战争推高油价带来的通胀压力，参会的其他委员中也有本可以支持这一修改的人。第四位反对者是美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰，他一贯投票支持更宽松的政策。
最终，多数委员决定维持美联储当前的政策指引，该指引明确表明，未来调整政策利率的唯一可能形式是降息。
“包括我在内的一部分委员认为，我们没必要急于修改声明，”鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示，“但另一方的论点也站得住脚，正如我之前提到的，这场讨论本身就极具价值。”
“不过我能理解，”他之后在回答另一名记者提问时补充道，他指出自3月以来，美联储19名有投票权和无投票权的政策制定者中，支持修改声明的人数有所增加，“在某个时间点，我们确实会做出调整，最快可能会在下一次会议上。”
将政策指引调整为同时暗示加息可能性的做法，可能会给这位指定的新任美联储主席带来麻烦。
一方面，唐纳德·特朗普总统是在对鲍威尔不满后选中沃什的，此前特朗普一直施压鲍威尔降息。特朗普表示，他期待沃什能兑现他的期望，不过沃什称他并未向总统做出任何承诺。
另一方面，沃什从根本上反对央行的前瞻性指引，无论是以他个人公布利率路径预期的形式，还是以全体政策制定者集体发布指引的形式。
“我不认为我应该提前向你们透露未来可能做出的决策，”他上周对议员们说道。
然而，起草美联储会后声明并非由主席一人说了算，而是需要通过共识达成。正如周三的投票结果所显示的那样，有时决议的通过会遭到少数派的反对。
鲍威尔周三表示，美联储内部存在不同观点是很自然的事，尤其是在当前这种复杂局势下：去年的关税冲击已经让通胀率超过了美联储2%的目标，目前尚不清楚当前油价飙升会持续多久，以及这将如何影响支出、通胀和经济。
“每一位新任美联储主席都会面临同样的处境：联邦公开市场委员会有18名同事，其中11人在一年中拥有投票权，而你的工作就是达成共识，与他们沟通，了解他们的想法，深入掌握他们的思路，将他们凝聚起来达成共识并推动政策落地，”鲍威尔说道，他在任期内的绝大多数会议上都获得了全票支持，“这是每位美联储主席都必须完成的工作。我认为凯文·沃什……他具备出色的能力和技能，能够胜任这一职位。”
本报记者安·萨菲尔报道；编辑：安德里亚·里奇
我们的准则：路透社汤森路透信任原则
Kevin Warsh wanted a family fight at the Fed. It has already started.
2026-04-30 04:05 UTC / Reuters
By Ann Saphir
April 30, 2026 4:05 AM UTC Updated 3 hours ago
Summary
Four of Fed’s 12 voters dissented on Wednesday, most in 34 years
- Warsh says ‘family fight’ dynamic improves Fed decision-making
- Warsh clears key hurdle on way to Fed chair post
April 30 (Reuters) – Kevin Warsh wanted a family fight at the Federal Reserve. It broke out before he arrived.
“Welcome to the new Fed era of dissent,” said Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long after the Fed on Wednesday announced it would hold its policy rate steady, but also that four of the Fed’s 12 voters dissented. That is the largest number since 1992.
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“The war in Iran has made the Fed’s job incredibly complex and there’s a wide range of views of what to do next,” Long said. “For now, the Fed is on hold, but good luck to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh trying to get agreement going forward.”
Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee to be next chair of the Federal Reserve, attends a Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing to testify, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 21, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/ File Photo
The era dawns on the day that Warsh cleared a key hurdle in the Senate on his way to becoming Fed chair on May 15, when Jerome Powell’s eight-year leadership stint ends.
Promising “regime change” at the Fed, Warsh told lawmakers at his confirmation hearing last week that he feels the Fed is too stuck in its set ways and he’d like to shake it up a little.
“I tend to favor messier meetings than some, where people don’t show up with rehearsed scripts,” Warsh said. “If the central bank has that good family fight, I think that they’re going to make better decisions, and if they happen to make mistakes, they’ll correct them sooner.”
At Wednesday’s meeting, Fed policymakers had what Powell called a “vigorous discussion” over whether to change the Fed’s post-meeting statement to signal the central bank’s next move could as easily be a rate hike as a rate cut.
Three of the dissenters – Reserve Bank presidents Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Lorie Logan of Dallas and Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis – wanted that change. There were others around the table, Powell said, who could have supported it as well, given the inflationary pressures from rising oil prices from the Iran war. The fourth dissenter, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, cast what has become his usual vote in favor of easier policy.
In the end, the majority decided to keep the Fed’s current guidance, which clearly suggests that any future adjustment to the policy rate will be in the form of a rate cut.
“A group of us, including me, didn’t feel like we needed to be in a hurry on that,” Powell said in a news conference following the meeting. “But the other side of the argument is a good argument too, as I mentioned. It’s a perfectly good argument to be having, good discussion to be having.”
“I get it though,” he told another reporter later, after noting that the number of the Fed’s 19 voting and non-voting policymakers supporting a change had grown since March. “At certain point you would move and that conceivably could come as soon as the next meeting.”
A shift in the guidance to suggest a rate hike is a possibility could complicate things for the designated new Fed chair.
For one thing, President Donald Trump picked Warsh after souring on Powell, whom he has pressured tirelessly to cut rates. Trump says he expects Warsh to deliver what he wants, though Warsh says he has not promised the president anything.
For another, Warsh is opposed to central bank forward guidance in the first place, whether in the form of giving his own rate-path view or in the form of guidance from policymakers as a group.
“I don’t believe that I should be previewing for you what a future decision might be,” he told lawmakers last week.
Crafting the Fed’s post-meeting statement, however, is not up to the chair alone, but is rather done through consensus and, as Wednesday’s outcome showed, sometimes happens over the objections of the minority.
The fact that there are a range of views within the Fed is only natural, Powell said on Wednesday, especially given the current situation where inflation is already running above the Fed’s 2% goal after last year’s tariff shocks, and it’s unclear how long the current surge in oil prices will last and how that will affect spending, inflation and the economy.
“Every new Fed chair has the same situation, which is you’ve got 18 colleagues on the FOMC, 11 of them vote during a year, and your job is to create consensus, is to talk to them, understand them, you know, be inside their thinking and be able to pull them together and get consensus and move,” said Powell, who got unanimous support at the vast majority of meetings during his tenure. “That’s what every Fed chair has to do. And I think Kevin Warsh … he has the capabilities and skills to be very good at that.”
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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