文字实录：明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行总裁兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里做客《与玛格丽特·布伦南面对国家》节目，2026年5月3日
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2026-05-03T11:58:07-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
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以下是2026年53日播出的《与玛格丽特·布伦南面对国家》节目中对明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行总裁兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里的采访实录。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 接下来我们有请明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行总裁兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里。早上好。
尼尔·卡什卡里（明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行总裁）： 早上好，玛格丽特。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 美联储上周维持利率不变，而你作为周三表态未来降息可能不合时宜、甚至可能需要加息的三位地区联储主席之一，你投了反对票。你是在说金融市场和白宫不应再期待美联储降息吗？
卡什卡里： 我认为我们所有人都应对利率走势保持开放心态，因为中东局势存在太多不确定性。我和我的许多同事都非常关注伊朗局势如何发展、霍尔木兹海峡关闭将持续多久。海峡关闭的时间越长，能源和化肥价格就可能涨得越高，对美国国内通胀的影响也就越大，而美联储必须将这些因素纳入考量。因此我只是认为，目前中东局势的前景存在太多不确定性，我不倾向于预示降息将成为可能。在更糟糕的情景下，我们甚至可能不得不采取加息举措。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我知道你刚刚听了总统经济顾问凯文·哈塞特的发言，他没有直接回答后续政策走向的问题，但描绘了局势持续紧张的画面。既然目前这类紧张局势已经进入第10周，你打算如何在6月美联储会议召开前的几周内评估这场通胀冲击？
卡什卡里： 举个例子，从某些衡量标准来看，伊朗冲突引发的能源价格冲击已经和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时的规模相当，甚至更大。这已经产生了重大影响——你提到了个人消费支出物价指数，我们已经在国内的通胀数据中看到了这一点。上周我刚和一家总部位于明尼苏达州的跨国公司首席执行官交谈过，该公司在全球各地都有供应链。他们估计，即便霍尔木兹海峡今日恢复通航，其供应链也可能需要六个月才能恢复大致正常。因此我认为，美联储必须密切关注中东局势和通胀数据的变化，这将是我们政策制定的指引。但如果在最乐观的情景下，通胀都需要六个月才能恢复正常，那么我同样非常担忧非乐观情景，以及其可能对美国国内物价造成的影响。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我们稍后将在节目中连线雪佛龙首席执行官，他也谈到了诸多可能在一段时间内推高能源价格的因素。在你发表的解释反对票理由的信件中，你还提到劳动力市场已经有一段时间处于“低招聘、低裁员”的环境中。目前我们看到一些企业正在裁员，我想了解你认为当前劳动力市场的动态是怎样的，以及能源冲击将如何影响这一态势。
卡什卡里： 到目前为止，近期劳动力市场出现了一些企稳迹象。看看失业救济申请人数，新申领失业救济的人数仍然很低，失业率也维持在4.3%左右，过去六个月略有波动，整体来看劳动力市场基本处于平稳状态。但如果中东局势引发的通胀冲击越大，美国人就越需要削减开支——比如他们不得不为汽油支付更高的费用，就会减少其他方面的支出。这可能会抑制经济增长，甚至可能导致劳动力市场出现疲软。目前来看，劳动力市场状况尚可，但如果这场冲突持续下去，或者局势进一步恶化，那么美国经济的增长轨迹可能会出现实质性的下行拐点，不幸的是，受影响的群体也会不均衡。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 你提到的“持续下去”具体是什么意思？目前局势已经到了第10周。
卡什卡里： 我的意思是，冲突会持续数月吗？会持续到今年年底吗？我完全不知道。我不是外交政策专家，但我们一直在密切关注。美联储当前面临的挑战，本质上是通胀前景的不确定性，而这种不确定性源于中东局势。从我了解的情况来看，未来的局势走向确实存在极大的不确定性。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我想谈谈美联储作为一个机构的现状。参议院银行委员会已经投票推进凯文·沃什出任美联储主席的提名，预计他将在5月中旬获得确认。在他的提名听证会上，他表示美联储在过去几年中处理通胀问题不当，还称美联储需要“好好整顿一番，展开一场‘良性的内部争执’”。你同意这种说法吗？我们确实需要一场良性的内部争执，改革美联储的运作方式？
卡什卡里： 我认为我们都期待凯文顺利完成确认程序，也期待与他合作，听取他的想法。他谈到的一些内容，比如我们如何进行沟通，以及他提到的“点阵图”机制，我认为我们都欢迎对这些方面进行审视。此外，关于资产负债表以及我们如何使用资产负债表工具，我认为这些也都值得重新审视。因此，有人提出要重新审视我们部分工具的使用方式，我认为这是值得开展的有益讨论。我认为不会出现真正的“争执”，而是会围绕这些政策工具的利弊展开充分讨论，我认为这样的讨论是有价值的。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 或是就通胀的衡量方式展开讨论？
卡什卡里： 是的，通胀的衡量方式有很多种。他在提名听证会上也谈到了自己偏好的一些衡量标准。我们一直在研究不同的通胀衡量方式，在不同的时期，某些指标似乎比其他指标更能准确反映通胀情况。因此，我们需要不带偏见地审视所有这些选项，找出未来最适合的通胀衡量工具。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 最后一个问题，美国国债规模已经超过了美国经济总量，占GDP的比重超过100%，且仍在朝着创纪录的水平攀升。这会带来哪些风险？
卡什卡里： 没人能给出确切答案。我们都清楚，所谓的“危险阈值”究竟是多少，又会在何时引发某种危机。你也知道，国会预算办公室对美国债务走势的预测显示，债务规模正朝着不可持续的方向发展。归根结底，这是财政政策制定者——国会和行政部门——的职责，他们需要携手合作，让美国重回稳健的财政轨道，而我们目前显然没有做到这一点。我不认为眼前会爆发危机，但总有一天这会成为一个问题，最终我们的政治体系必须对此做出应对。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 尼尔·卡什卡里，感谢你今天上午分享你的见解。我们很快将回到《面对国家》节目，稍候回来。请继续收看。
Transcript: Minneapolis Fed president and CEO Neel Kashkari on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” May 3, 2026
2026-05-03T11:58:07-0400 / CBS News
The following is the transcript of the interview with Minneapolis Fed president and CEO Neel Kashkari that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on May 3, 2026.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We go now to Neel Kashkari, who is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Good morning.
NEEL KASHKARI (President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis): Good morning, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this past week, and on Wednesday, you were one of three regional presidents who indicated that future rate cuts may not be appropriate and a hike could even be in the cards. You- you dissented there- are you saying that the financial markets and the White House should no longer expect the Fed to cut rates?
KASHKARI: I think we all need to be open-minded about where interest rates are going, because there’s so much uncertainty coming out of the Middle East. You know, I think I’m very focused, and many of my colleagues are, what happens in Iran, how long the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the longer it’s closed, the higher likely energy prices and fertilizer prices will go, the bigger impact it’s going to have on inflation here in America, and then we at the Fed have to take that on board. And so, I was simply saying that there’s so much uncertainty about the outlook in the Middle East right now, I don’t feel comfortable signaling that a rate cut is in the cards. You know, we might in the- in worse scenarios, we might have to go the other direction.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I know you were just listening to Kevin Hassett, the president’s economic adviser. He was not directly answering the question of what comes next, but he was painting a picture of continued tension. And I wonder now, since we’re in week 10 of this tension, however it’s defined, how are you going to be able to judge the inflation shock over the next few weeks until you get to that June meeting?
KASHKARI: Well, I’ll give you an example. So, the price effect, the energy effect and energy prices from the Iran conflict is already, by some measures, as big or larger than when Russia invaded Ukraine. So, it’s already having a big effect and we’re seeing it- you mentioned the PCE data- we’re already seeing it in the inflation numbers here at home. I talked to the CEO of a global company headquartered in Minnesota that has supply chains all around the world just last week, and they have estimated that even if the strait reopened today, it would probably take six months for their supply chains to return to something like normal. So I think for the Fed, we are going to have to watch what happens in the Middle East and the inflation data very carefully. That’s going to have to guide us. But if it’s a six-month process for inflation returning to normal, or something like normal, in the best-case scenario, I’m also very concerned about something that’s not the best-case scenario, and what that might do to prices here at home.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So, we’ll hear from Chevron CEO later in the program. He also talks about just the many, many factors that are likely to keep energy prices elevated for some time. In your letter that you published, explaining why you dissented, you also said the labor market has been in a quote, “low hire, low fire environment” for some time. Right now, we’re seeing some corporate layoffs underway, and I wonder what the dynamic is that you think is playing out now, and how the energy shock is going to play into it.
KASHKARI: Well, so far, recently, the labor market has shown some signs of stabilization. So if you look at unemployment claims and new- new unemployment claims, they’re very low. The unemployment rate has been at around 4.3%. It’s bounced around a little bit for the last six months, so it seems like mostly the labor market is moving sideways. But the bigger the inflation shock that comes out of the Middle East, the more that’s going to force Americans to cut back in their spending, because they have to pay for gas, for example, so they’ll cut back other spending. That can have a way of tamping down economic growth, that even could translate into some weakness in the labor market. So at this moment, the labor market seems like it’s okay, but if this conflict is prolonged, or if it gets much worse from here, then I think that could be a real downward shift to the growth trajectory to the U.S. economy, and it’ll be uneven on who gets affected by that unfortunately.
MARGARET BRENNAN: When you say prolonged, what do you mean by that? We’re in week 10.
KASHKARI: Well, I mean, could it go on for months? Could it go on for the end of the year? I just don’t know. I’m not a foreign policy expert, but we’re watching very carefully. And that you know, the challenge the Fed is facing right now is really about uncertainty of the outlook for inflation, which stems back to what happens in the Middle East, and it seems like there’s a great deal of uncertainty about the path ahead, from what I can read.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to ask you about what’s happening with the Fed as an institution. The Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair. He is expected to be confirmed in mid-May. During his testimony, he said the Fed has mishandled inflation over the past few years, and he said the Fed needs a quote, serious shaking up with a “good family fight.” Do you agree with that? There needs to be a good family fight and a change of how you do business?
KASHKARI: Well, I think we’re all looking forward to Kevin concluding his confirmation process, and we look forward to working with him and hearing his ideas. Some of the things that he’s talked about, I think we are- would welcome an examination of, how we communicate, this thing that we call the dot plot he’s talked about. I think many of us would like to examine that. There are things about the balance sheet and how we use the balance sheet. I think those are also- I think we would welcome a fresh examination of some of these policies. And so I think someone coming in and saying, hey, let’s reexamine how we use some of our tools, I think those are good discussions to have. I don’t think we’d be physically fighting I think that we’d have robust discussions over the benefits and the cost of these various tools, and I think that that would be worthwhile to have.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Or how you measure inflation?
KASHKARI: Well, I think that there are many different ways of measuring inflation. He has talked about in his confirmation hearing some of his preferred measures. We are always looking at different ways of measuring inflation, and in different moments, certain measures seem like they do a better job than others, and so I think we need to examine all of those options dispassionately and figure out what is the best measurement tool going forward.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Quickly, the national debt is now larger than the U.S. economy. It’s one- exceeds 100% of GDP going towards a record here. What risk does that pose?
KASHKARI: Well, no one knows. You know how big is the danger zone and when there’s going to actually trigger some kind of a crisis. If you look, I know you know this, if you look at the CBO’s forecast for where the debt is going, it’s absolutely headed to an unsustainable level. Ultimately, this is the job of our fiscal policymakers, Congress and the executive branch, to come together and put us on a- on a sound fiscal trajectory, which we’re not on right now. I don’t see an immediate crisis brewing, but at some point it’s going to be a problem, and ultimately our political system needs to address it.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Neel Kashkari, thank you for sharing your insight this morning, and we’ll be right back with a lot more Face the Nation. Stay with us.