2026-05-04T20:36:53.386Z / 路透社
作者：格拉姆·斯莱特里、乔纳森·兰迪、艾琳·班科
2026年5月4日 美国东部时间晚上8:36 更新于3小时前
节点运行失败
2026年4月29日，一名男子在伊朗德黑兰的一场集会上手持旗帜，旗帜上印有已故伊朗革命领袖阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼、已故伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊以及伊朗新任最高领袖莫赫塔巴·哈梅内伊的肖像。马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/瓦纳（西亚新闻社） via 路透社/档案照片
- 消息人士称，尽管战事持续，美国对伊朗核能力的情报评估基本未变
- 消息人士称，如果伊朗领导人决定研发核武器，该国大约需要一年时间才能造出核弹
- 消息人士称，美国在当前战争中基本避开了核目标
- 美国官员辩称，通过摧毁常规军事目标，美国已打乱德黑兰的核武器研发路径
华盛顿，5月4日（路透电）——三位知情人士透露，美国情报评估显示，伊朗制造核武器所需的时间自去年夏天以来并未发生变化。当时分析师们估计，美以联合打击已将该时间表推后至最多一年。
即便在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普为阻止伊朗伊斯兰共和国研发核弹而发动的战争爆发两个月后，国际社会对德黑兰核计划的评估仍基本未变。
《路透社伊朗简报》通讯将为您带来伊朗战争的最新动态与分析。在此注册。
广告 · 滚动继续阅读
2月28日开始的美以最新袭击行动以常规军事目标为重点，但以色列袭击了多座重要核设施。
时间表未发生变化表明，要大幅阻碍德黑兰的核计划，可能需要摧毁或移除伊朗剩余的高浓缩铀库存。
在美国和伊朗于4月7日达成停火以寻求和平以来，战事陷入停滞。双方内部分歧严重，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡、阻断全球约20%石油供应并引发全球能源危机，导致紧张局势持续升级。
广告 · 滚动继续阅读
美国国防部长皮特·赫格斯曾公开表示，美国的目标是通过与德黑兰的持续谈判，确保伊朗不会获得核武器。
两位要求匿名以讨论美国情报事务的消息人士称，在6月为期12天的战争之前，美国情报机构就已得出结论，伊朗可能有足够的武器级铀制造核弹，并可在约3至6个月内组装完成。
这两位消息人士以及一位熟悉评估情况的人士透露，在6月美国袭击纳坦兹、福特奥和伊斯法罕核设施后，美国情报估计将该时间表推后至约9个月至一年。
当时已知正在运行的三座浓缩铀工厂在袭击中被摧毁或严重损坏。但联合国核监督机构无法核实约440公斤60%浓缩铀的下落。该机构认为其中约一半储存在伊斯法罕核研究中心的地下隧道综合体中，但自核查暂停以来，无法证实这一点。
国际原子能机构评估称，若进一步浓缩，总高浓缩铀库存足以制造10枚核弹。
“‘午夜铁锤行动’摧毁了伊朗的核设施，‘史诗狂怒行动’则在此基础上进一步打击了伊朗的国防工业基础——这一基础曾被用作其核武器研发的保护盾，”白宫发言人奥利维亚·威尔士说道，她所指的是6月的行动以及2月开始的最新战争。
“特朗普总统一直明确表示，伊朗绝不能拥有核武器——而且他不会虚张声势。”
国家情报总监办公室未回应置评请求。
阻止德黑兰核计划是美国核心目标
包括特朗普在内的美国官员多次将消除伊朗核计划列为战争的关键目标。
“绝不能让伊朗获得核武器。这是此次行动的目标，”副总统JD·万斯3月2日在X平台上写道。
消息人士称，伊朗制造此类武器所需时间的评估未发生变化，在一定程度上反映了美以最新军事行动的重点。
尽管以色列袭击了与核相关的目标，包括3月底的一座铀加工设施，但美国的袭击集中在常规军事能力、伊朗领导层及其军工基础上。
一些分析师认为，评估未发生变化也可能是因为自6月的军事行动以来，没有易于且安全摧毁的主要核目标。
前美国高级情报分析师埃里克·布鲁尔曾主导伊朗核计划评估，他表示，评估未发生变化并不令人意外，因为美国最近的袭击并未优先打击与核相关的目标。
“据我们所知，伊朗仍拥有其所有核材料，”布鲁尔说道，他现任核威胁倡议军备控制智库核材料研究项目副主席。“这些材料可能藏在深埋的地下场所，美国弹药无法穿透。”
最近几周，美国官员一直在考虑会严重阻碍伊朗核努力的危险行动。这些选项包括地面突袭，以取回据称储存在伊斯法罕遗址隧道综合体中的高浓缩铀。
伊朗多次否认寻求核武器。美国情报机构和国际原子能机构表示，德黑兰在2003年停止了弹头开发工作，但一些专家和以色列方面认为，伊朗秘密保留了该计划的关键部分。
核科学家遇袭可能产生的影响
专家表示，即便对世界顶尖情报机构而言，准确评估伊朗的核能力也并非易事。
多个美国情报机构独立研究了伊朗的核计划，尽管消息人士称，各方就伊朗制造核武器的能力达成了广泛共识，但也存在少数不同意见。
伊朗的核野心可能比情报评估显示的倒退得更远。
包括美国国务卿马可·卢比奥在内的一些官员辩称，美国袭击伊朗防空系统，削弱了伊朗未来若急于推进武器化时保卫其核设施的能力，从而降低了核威胁。
以色列暗杀伊朗顶尖核科学家也产生了影响。
曾担任联合国核检查员、领导科学与国际安全研究所的戴维·奥尔布赖特表示，这些暗杀行动给德黑兰制造可正常运作的核弹的能力带来了重大不确定性。
“我认为所有人都同意，知识无法被轰炸，但专业技能确实可以被摧毁，”他说道。
格拉姆·斯莱特里、乔纳森·兰迪和艾琳·班科 报道；唐·杜菲和丹尼尔·沃利斯 编辑
我们的准则：汤姆森路透社信任原则。
Exclusive: US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program, sources say
2026-05-04T20:36:53.386Z / Reuters
By Gram Slattery, Jonathan Landay and Erin Banco
May 4, 2026 8:36 PM UTC Updated 3 hours ago
节点运行失败
A man holds a flag with a picture of late leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, late Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, during a rally in Tehran, Iran, April 29, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS/File Photo
- US intel assessments of Iran’s nuclear capacity broadly unchanged despite ongoing war, sources say
- Iran would need around a year to build a weapon if leaders decided to pursue that path, sources say
- Sources say the US has largely steered clear of nuclear targets during current war
- US officials argue that by destroying conventional military targets, US has muddied Tehran’s path to a nuclear weapon
WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
The assessments of Tehran’s nuclear program remain broadly unchanged even after two months of a war that U.S. President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb.
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
The latest U.S. and Israeli attacks that began on February 28 have focused on conventional military targets, but Israel has hit a number of significant nuclear facilities.
The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran’s nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran’s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or HEU.
The war has stalled since the U.S. and Iran agreed an April 7 truce to pursue peace. Tensions remain high as both sides appear deeply divided, and as Iran has choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking some 20% of world oil supplies and igniting a global energy crisis.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has said publicly that the U.S. aims to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon via ongoing negotiations with Tehran.
U.S. intelligence agencies had concluded prior to June’s 12-day war that Iran likely could produce enough bomb-grade uranium for a weapon and build a bomb in around three to six months, said two of the sources, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence.
Following the June strikes by the U.S. that hit the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes, U.S. intelligence estimates pushed that timeline back to about nine months to a year, said the two sources and a person familiar with the assessments.
The attacks destroyed or badly damaged the three enrichment plants known to have been operating at the time. But the U.N. nuclear watchdog has been unable to verify the whereabouts of some 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. It believes that about half was stored in an underground tunnel complex at the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center, but it has been unable to confirm that since inspections were suspended.
The International Atomic Energy Agency assesses the total HEU stockpile would be enough for 10 bombs if further enriched.
“While Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities, Operation Epic Fury built on this success by decimating Iran’s defense industrial base that they once leveraged as a protective shield around their pursuit of a nuclear weapon,” said White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales, referring to the June operation and the latest war that began in February.
“President Trump has long been clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon – and he does not bluff.”
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to a request for comment.
STOPPING TEHRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM A KEY U.S. GOAL
U.S. officials, including Trump, repeatedly cite the need to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program as a key objective of the war.
“Iran can never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. That is the goal of this operation,” Vice President JD Vance wrote on X on March 2.
The unchanging estimate of how long it would take Iran to build such a weapon reflects in part the focus of the latest U.S. and Israeli military campaign, the sources said.
While Israel has struck nuclear-related targets, including a uranium-processing facility in late March, U.S. attacks have concentrated on conventional military capabilities, Iran’s leadership and its military-industrial base.
The unchanged estimates may also stem from a lack of major nuclear targets that can be readily and safely destroyed following June’s military action, according to some analysts.
Eric Brewer, a former senior U.S. intelligence analyst who led assessments of Iran’s nuclear program, said it was not surprising that the assessments have not changed because recent U.S. strikes have not prioritized nuclear-related targets.
“Iran still possesses all of its nuclear material, as far as we know,” said Brewer, vice president of the nuclear materials study program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative arms control think tank. “That material is probably located in deeply buried underground sites where U.S. munitions can’t penetrate.”
In recent weeks, U.S. officials have contemplated dangerous operations which would significantly impede Iran’s nuclear efforts. Those options include ground raids to retrieve the HEU believed to be stored in the tunnel complex at the Isfahan site.
Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Tehran halted a warhead development effort in 2003, though some experts and Israel contend that it secretly preserved key parts of the program.
POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM KILLING OF SCIENTISTS
Precisely evaluating Iran’s nuclear capacity is difficult, even for the world’s leading intelligence services, say experts.
Several U.S. intelligence agencies have independently studied Iran’s nuclear program, and while the sources described a broad consensus regarding Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear weapon, outlying assessments do occur.
It is possible Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been set back further than the intelligence estimates suggest.
Some officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have argued that U.S. strikes on Iranian air defenses have reduced the nuclear threat by diminishing Iran’s ability to defend its nuclear sites should it decide to rush toward weaponization in the future.
There also is the impact of Israel’s assassinations of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists.
David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector who runs the Institute for Science and International Security, said the killings have added significant uncertainty to Tehran’s ability to build a bomb that would function as intended.
“I think everyone agrees knowledge can’t be bombed, but know-how certainly can be destroyed,” he said.
Reporting by Gram Slattery, Jonathan Landay and Erin Banco; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Wallis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.