2026-05-09T10:00:50.901Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
扎卡里·B·沃尔夫 撰稿
1小时8分钟前发布
发布于 美国东部时间2026年5月9日6:00
唐纳德·特朗普 中东局势
就像露西拿着橄榄球逗查理·布朗那样，唐纳德·特朗普总统一直在暗示，结束对伊朗战争的协议即将达成。
这是他几个月来反复重申的一系列有关伊朗问题的竞选说辞之一。
战争本身已经发生了变化——从最初的震慑性空袭，演变为持续一个月的停火，双方都对对方实施了代价高昂的封锁。
但特朗普的竞选说辞却始终如一。他反复强调的核心观点包括：美国掌控全局；伊朗军队已被击溃；战事很快就会结束。
这一切使得人们很难当真看待他有关协议即将达成的承诺。
如果悲观的民调数据可信的话，白宫在这场战争上的信息传递效果不佳，但特朗普始终坚持自己的既定话术，毫不动摇。
说辞一：战争很快就会结束
“战事很快就会结束，”特朗普本周在佐治亚州一名共和党候选人的电话集会上说道。
“我认为协议很有希望达成，如果不能达成，我们就回去把他们炸个稀巴烂，”他本周早些时候在接受美国公共电视网（PBS）采访时表示。
自美以首次空袭伊朗以来，他就一直在反复使用这种暗示。
“很快就会结束，”他3月9日对记者说道。
具体的时间节点从他竞选初期预测的4到6周不断延后，但战事始终看起来就在眼前。
早在4月，CNN的《内幕政治》栏目就曾剪辑过特朗普多次宣称战争即将结束的片段。此后几周，他的这种暗示从未停止。
2026年4月24日，一名女子在德黑兰瓦里亚斯广场走过为悼念2月28日首轮空袭中遇难的米纳布女学生而摆放的象征性物品。
法新社/盖蒂图片社
说辞二：这只是一次迂回、一次短途出行或是一场小冲突
特朗普并不避讳用“战争”一词来形容这场军事冲突，但这场战争并未获得国会授权。不过他更倾向于将其描述为一场规模更小的冲突。
“我称之为小冲突，因为它本质上就是一场小冲突，我们的表现好得难以置信，”特朗普周三在白宫说道。
“小冲突”这个说法相对较新，但背后的逻辑却始终未变。
“这只是一次短暂的军事介入，本应在47年前就完成，”他3月7日在空军一号上对记者说道。
“所以我们只是绕了个小弯路，结果进展非常顺利，”他5月4日在白宫表示。
特朗普对伊朗战争的称呼
0:12 • 来源：CNN
特朗普对伊朗战争的称呼
0:12
说辞三：美国已经摧毁了伊朗军队
“他们没有海军——彻底被消灭了——他们没有空军——彻底被消灭了——他们没有防空能力——彻底被消灭了——连雷达都没有。他们没有指挥官，指挥官也被消灭了。整个军队都完了——但我看报纸还说他们打得有多好。他们根本不行，”特朗普5月5日在白宫说道。
一天前，他也说了同样的话。
“他们没有海军，没有空军，没有防空装备，没有雷达，什么都没有。实际上他们连指挥官都没有。他们的指挥官——那些指挥官也都不见了，”他5月4日说道。
这是特朗普翻来覆去重复的竞选说辞，在4月7日停火协议达成前后都是如此。
以下是他3月20日在记者群访中宣称美国已基本赢得战争的例子：
“我们摧毁了他们的海军、空军。我们摧毁了他们的防空系统。我们摧毁了一切。我们可以自由行动。从军事角度看，他们现在只会在霍尔木兹海峡添乱。但从军事角度看，他们已经完了，”他当时说道。
2026年3月28日，一名记者站在德黑兰东部一家遭导弹袭击的汽车服务中心的车辆残骸旁。
阿塔·凯纳雷/法新社/盖蒂图片社
说辞四：伊朗领导层希望达成协议
战争期间美伊谈判的诚意一直饱受猜测，谈判进程也随着战事起伏不定。由巴基斯坦斡旋的多轮提案已演变为一套更简化的原则。（有报道称提案内容仅一页纸，但特朗普称实际内容不止于此。）
伊朗核计划的长期走向也不明朗。特朗普长期以来一直表示，这场战争的主要目标是确保伊朗永远无法拥有核武器。
但特朗普的竞选说辞始终是：伊朗领导层希望达成协议。
“他们想达成协议。过去24小时我们进行了非常好的会谈，我们很有可能达成协议，”特朗普周三在白宫说道。
在另一场周三的活动中，他也表达了几乎相同的观点。
“我们正在和非常想达成协议的对手打交道，我们将看看他们能否拿出让我们满意的协议。我们完全掌控着局势，”他说道。
几个月来，他一直在谈论伊朗人有多希望达成协议。但协议始终没有达成。
“他们想达成协议，”他3月21日说道。
特朗普常说伊朗人想达成协议
0:11 • 来源：CNN
特朗普常说伊朗人想达成协议
0:11
当时停火协议尚未达成，而停火本应有助于推动协议签署，特朗普曾宣称战争正按他的计划推进。“我们比计划提前了数周，”他当时说道。（如今他不再使用这一说辞。）
几天后的3月26日，他在Truth Social上因伊朗方面不愿接受美国提案并发出威胁而恼怒：
“伊朗谈判代表非常‘怪异’。他们‘乞求’我们达成协议，既然他们在军事上已经被彻底击溃，绝无翻盘可能，他们本该如此，但他们却公开表示只是‘在研究我们的提案’。大错特错！！！”
此后局势发生了变化。虽然已经实现停火，但伊朗通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡获得了谈判筹码。但特朗普的说辞却丝毫未变。
2015年7月15日，巴拉克·奥巴马总统在白宫东厅就伊朗核协议举行新闻发布会。
亚历克斯·王/盖蒂图片社/档案照片
说辞五：他达成的任何协议都将优于奥巴马的伊朗核协议
我之前曾撰文提及此事，但特朗普仍在不断谈论奥巴马政府期间多国与伊朗达成的核协议。他经常重复这一论调。
“其他总统本应早就做到这一点，”他周二在白宫说道。“47年来，历届总统都在和这些愚蠢的伊朗领导人周旋。很多时候，他们就是愚蠢的人。奥巴马本应早就搞定这件事。但他却走了歪路。他给他们送现金。他派飞机——一架波音757拆掉座椅，装上绿色的现金，17亿美元装进了飞机。”
这些歪曲奥巴马时期核协议事实的言论，是特朗普常用的竞选说辞。
“我们与伊朗达成的协议将远远优于《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA），也就是通常所说的‘伊朗核协议’，该协议由巴拉克·侯赛因·奥巴马和‘瞌睡乔’·拜登炮制，是有史以来对我国国家安全最糟糕的协议之一，”他4月20日在社交媒体上说道。
说辞六：只要能阻止伊朗拥有核武器，任何代价都值得
尽管战争前的情报评估并未显示伊朗即将拥有核武器，但特朗普仍坚称这场战争是必要的，旨在避免核战争。
“我可以告诉你们，中东会被毁灭，以色列会被毁灭，他们会先把目标对准欧洲，然后是我们，因为他们是疯子。这些都是疯子，”特朗普5月5日在白宫说道。“我们绝不会让疯子拥有核武器。”
特朗普竞选说辞的一致性让人难以分辨，他何时只是在重复既定脚本，何时又会就结束战争的谈判发表新的言论。
CNN的杜加尔德·麦康奈尔和艾米丽·康登为本报道撰稿。
The Iran war has changed. Trump’s talking points have not
2026-05-09T10:00:50.901Z / CNN
Analysis by
Zachary B. Wolf
1 hr 8 min ago
PUBLISHED May 9, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Donald Trump The Middle East
Like Lucy with the football, President Donald Trump keeps teasing that a deal to end the war with Iran is nearly over.
It’s one of a series of Iran talking points he has been repeating for months.
The war itself has changed — evolving from one of shock and awe to a monthlong ceasefire in which each side has imposed a costly blockade on the other.
But Trump’s talking points have stayed the same. The ideas he repeats include the key points that the US is in charge; Iran’s military is devastated; and things are going to be over pretty soon.
All this makes it very difficult to know how seriously to take his assurances about the proximity of a deal.
The White House messaging on the war has been ineffective, if dour polling is to be believed, but Trump’s own adherence to his script has been unshakeable.
Point #1: It’s almost over
“It’ll be over quickly,” Trump said during a tele-rally for a Republican candidate in Georgia this week.
“I think it’s got a very good chance of ending, and if it doesn’t end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them,” he told PBS earlier in the week.
It’s a tease he has employed over and over again since the US and Israel first attacked Iran.
“Very soon,” he told reporters on March 9.
The specific timeframe has slipped from the four to six weeks Trump projected early in the campaign, but it has always remained just off in the distance.
Back in April, CNN’s “Inside Politics” made a montage of times Trump had said the war would be over soon. He hasn’t stopped the tease in the weeks since.
A woman walks past symbolic belongings laid on the ground at Valiasr Square in Tehran on April 24, 2026, in tribute to the schoolgirls in Minab killed during the initial February 28 airstrikes on Iran.
AFP/Getty Images
Point #2: It’s just a detour, excursion, or skirmish
Trump has not shied away from using the word “war” to describe military conflict, which remains unauthorized by Congress. But he prefers to describe it as something less.
“I call it a skirmish because that’s what it is, it’s a skirmish. And we’re doing unbelievably well,” Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.
The word skirmish is relatively new, but the idea around it has been a constant.
“This is a short excursion into something that should have been done for 47 years,” he told reporters on March 7 on Air Force One.
“So we did a little detour and it’s working out very nicely,” he said at the White House on May 4.
How Trump refers to the Iran war
0:12 • Source: CNN
How Trump refers to the Iran war
0:12
Point #3: The US has destroyed Iran’s military
“They have no navy — totally wiped out — they have no air force — totally wiped out — they have no anti-aircraft capability — totally wiped out — no radar. They have no leaders. The leaders are wiped out. The whole thing — and then I read the papers and they say how well they’re doing. They’re not doing well,” Trump said May 5 at the White House.
A day earlier, he said the same thing.
“They have no navy, they have no air force, they have no anti-aircraft equipment, they have no radar, they have no nothing. They have no leaders, actually. Their leaders — the leaders happened to be gone also,” he said May 4.
It’s a talking point Trump has repeated ad nauseam, both before the April 7 ceasefire and since.
Here’s an example from his gaggle with reporters on March 20 in arguing the US had already essentially won the war:
“We’ve knocked out their navy, their air force. We’ve knocked out their anti-aircraft. We’ve knocked out everything. We’re roaming free. From a military standpoint, all they’re doing is clogging up the strait. But from a military standpoint, they’re finished,” he said back then.
A journalist stands next to the wreckage of a vehicle during the visit to a car service center in eastern Tehran that was hit by a missile strike, on March 28, 2026.
Atta Kenare/AFP/ Getty Images
Point #4: Iran’s leadership wants a deal
The seriousness of talks between Iran and the US has been the subject of much conjecture as they have ebbed and flowed during the war. Multipoint proposals brokered by Pakistani interlocutors have morphed into a simpler set of principles. (Some reports suggested the proposal fit onto one page, but Trump has said there’s more to it than that.)
It’s also unclear what would happen in the long term to Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has long said a major goal of the war is to make sure Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.
But Trump’s talking point is that Iran’s leadership wants a deal.
“They want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal,” Trump said Wednesday at the White House.
At a different Wednesday event, he said something very similar.
“We’re dealing with people that want to make a deal very much, and we’ll see whether or not they can make a deal that’s satisfactory to us. We have it very much under control,” he said.
He has been talking about how the Iranians want to make a deal for months. No deal has materialized.
“They want to make a deal,” he said on March 21.
Trump often says the Iranians want to make a deal
0:11 • Source: CNN
Trump often says the Iranians want to make a deal
0:11
At that time, before the ceasefire, which was meant to help foster a deal, Trump argued the war was going according to his plan. “We are weeks ahead of schedule,” he said back then. (He’s not using that talking point anymore.)
Days later, on March 26, he was agitated that Iranians were not willing to agree to a US proposal and making threats on Truth Social:
“The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange.’ They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’ WRONG!!!”
The situation has changed since then. There is a ceasefire, but Iran has gained leverage by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. But the talking point remains the same.
President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference regarding a nuclear deal with Iran, in the East Room of the White House on July 15, 2015.
Alex Wong/Getty Images/File
Point #5: Whatever he achieves will be better than Obama’s Iran deal
I’ve written about this before, but Trump continues to talk about the nuclear deal struck between multiple countries and Iran during the Obama administration. He repeats it often.
“Other presidents should have done this,” he said Tuesday at the White House. “Forty-seven years, they’ve (presidents) been toying with these stupid people (Iran’s leaders). In many cases, stupid people. They should have been done by Obama. He went the other way. He was giving him cash. He sent plane loads — a Boeing 757 took the seats out and put green, green cash, $1.7 billion in the plane.”
Those claims, which bend the facts of the Obama-era deal, are frequent talking points for Trump.
“The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA, commonly referred to as ‘The Iran Nuclear Deal,’ penned by Barack Hussein Obama and Sleepy Joe Biden, one of the Worst Deals ever made having to do with the Security of our Country,” he said April 20 on social media.
Point #6: Anything would be worth keeping Iran from a nuclear weapon
While intelligence assessments before the war did not suggest Iran was on the cusp of obtaining a nuclear weapon, Trump has argued the war was necessary to avert nuclear war.
“I can tell you, the Middle East would have been gone, Israel would have been gone, and they would have trained their sights on Europe first and then us because they’re sick people. These are sick people,” Trump said on May 5 at the White House. “And we’re not going to let lunatics have a nuclear weapon.”
The consistency of Trump’s talking points makes it hard to tell when he’s repeating the script and when he might be saying something new about negotiations on an end to the war.
CNN’s Dugald McConnell and Emily Condon contributed to this report.