By Bhanvi Satija
2026年1月22日 12:31 UTC 更新于48分钟前
U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gestures as he speaks during the inaugural Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) summit in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 12, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo
- 肯尼迪的疫苗政策转变引发行业不满
- 专家将接种率下降与美国言论联系起来
- 专注疫苗的生物科技公司面临估值压力
伦敦，1月22日（路透社）- 投资者和高管表示，美国卫生部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪（Robert F. Kennedy Jr.）推行的全面政策变革正在对疫苗生产商产生寒风吹拂般的影响，因为反疫苗言论已转化为具体的接种计划和建议调整。
在过去一年中，唐纳德·特朗普总统领导的政府彻底颠覆了疫苗接种建议，美国上个月终止了长期以来所有儿童均需接种流感、甲型肝炎和其他疾病疫苗的指导方针。
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15位投资者和分析师告诉路透社，这些前所未有的变化导致疫苗使用量减少，损害了部分生物科技公司的投资前景，并将在未来几年拖累公司收入并增加成本。
荷兰国际集团（ING）全球制药与医疗保健负责人斯蒂芬·法雷利（Stephen Farrelly）表示：”在现任政府领导下，疫苗不会成为增长领域。”这暗示该行业可能在2028年前持续面临压力。
肯尼迪领导下的疫苗政策
肯尼迪长期以来一直是反疫苗活动家，他无视科学证据，质疑疫苗的安全性和有效性。自特朗普政府任命他执掌卫生与公众服务部（HHS）以来，他迅速采取行动。
他解雇了一个独立专家顾问小组，代之以持反疫苗观点的成员，并取消了针对孕妇和儿童的广泛新冠疫苗接种建议。
他还重启了对早已被揭穿的”疫苗导致自闭症”说法的研究，并采用了新的儿童疫苗接种计划，且未遵循长期以来广泛征求外部专家意见的做法。
投资者和分析师最初认为肯尼迪的任命更多是头条新闻风险，而非根本性威胁。
当时，特朗普政府面临的关税问题和药品定价压力正影响市场情绪，疫苗相关担忧被搁置一旁。
赛诺菲首席财务官弗朗索瓦-泽维尔·罗杰（François-Xavier Roger）去年曾指出，围绕疫苗存在”一些负面舆论”。
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随着风险从理论层面逐渐变为现实，情况发生了变化。投资者现在担心肯尼迪政策的影响难以逆转，这与公共卫生专家的担忧不谋而合，专家们也表示，这些政策将导致可预防的疾病和死亡。
肯尼迪称，这些变革旨在提高疫苗安全性，并使美国疫苗政策与其他同类国家保持一致。
HHS发言人在一份声明中表示，疫苗建议基于”最佳可用的’黄金标准’科学证据和公共卫生考量，而非企业利益”。
大型疫苗生产商与生物科技公司对比
大型疫苗生产商包括英国的葛兰素史克（GSK）、法国的赛诺菲、美国药企辉瑞（Pfizer）和默克（Merck），以及规模较小的公司如Moderna、Novavax和德国的BioNTech。
显著的政策变化已开始引发行业领袖罕见的公开批评。
辉瑞CEO阿尔伯特·布尔拉（Albert Bourla）和赛诺菲CEO保罗·哈德森（Paul Hudson）在上周的一次主要医疗峰会上批评了肯尼迪的言论，哈德森提到”所有流传的…错误信息”。
布尔拉告诉记者，这正在降低接种率并增加疾病风险。”我非常沮丧，”他说，”这一切毫无科学依据，只是在服务一个政治和反疫苗的议程。”
本流感季美国已分发超过15亿剂流感疫苗
政治压力开始显现
投资者表示，疫苗生产商的长期前景依然强劲，因为疫苗仍是预防疾病最有效的工具。但他们称，现在公司更多地受制于政治领导人的 whims。
Clear Street分析师比尔·莫汉（Bill Maughan）表示：”不幸的是，成功与失败将取决于少数人的意见。仅有良好的科学和商业机会是不够的。如果你是生物科技投资者，目前很难对疫苗类股票产生真正的信心。”
投资者表示，他们将继续支持对疫苗收入依赖较小的大型制药商，如葛兰素史克、赛诺菲、辉瑞和默克。而Moderna、BioNTech和Novavax等小型公司面临更大风险。
2023年以来大型生产商疫苗收入占比
美国政策变化的影响已开始显现。尽管本流感季更为严重，葛兰素史克和赛诺菲第三季度美国流感疫苗销售额仍有所下降。
10月，澳大利亚的CSL公司推迟了分拆其疫苗部门Seqirus的计划，理由是”波动性增加”和美国接种率下降。
Jefferies分析师迈克尔·勒亨滕（Michael Leuchten）表示：”显然，美国正在传播的这种言论正在引发消费者反应。”
长期展望
一些投资者认为，对疫苗和疾病预防的需求可能会反弹。他们指出，南卡罗来纳州麻疹病例增加等疫情爆发或持续严重的流感季可能推动疫苗使用量重新上升。
美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）最近表示，2025-26流感季截至目前已报告至少1100万例病例和5000例死亡，几乎是去年同期的两倍。
美国儿科学会（American Academy of Pediatrics）等医疗机构已在法庭上挑战肯尼迪的政策，其最终影响尚不明朗。
资产管理公司Candriam的高级基金经理林登·汤姆森（Linden Thomson）表示：”投资者通常关注短期，而公司显然有更长远的眼光。”
Callodine Capital分析师马修·马苏奇（Matthew Masucci）也表示同意，该公司持有葛兰素史克和赛诺菲的股份。
但目前，投资者可能更为谨慎。
投资公司Mawer的股票分析师伊恩·特恩布尔（Ian Turnbull）表示，美国摇摆不定的政策和疫苗怀疑论正在抑制投资。
“如果需求不再像过去那样可预测，这个市场的吸引力就会降低，”他说。
报道由Bhanvi Satija撰写；Maggie Fick和Michael Erman补充报道；Adam Jourdan、Michele Gershberg和Bill Berkrot编辑
Vaccine makers feel a chill as US Health Secretary Kennedy’s rhetoric becomes reality
By Bhanvi Satija
January 22, 2026 12:31 PM UTC Updated 48 mins ago
节点运行失败
U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gestures as he speaks during the inaugural Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) summit in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 12, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo
- Kennedy’s vaccine policy shifts spark industry frustration
- Experts link drop in vaccination rates to US rhetoric
- Vaccine-focused biotech firms face valuation pressure
LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) – Sweeping U.S. policy changes under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are having a chilling effect on vaccine makers as anti-vaccine rhetoric has turned into concrete changes to inoculation schedules and recommendations, investors and executives said.
The administration of President Donald Trump has in the last year upended vaccine recommendations, with the U.S. last month ending its longstanding guidance that all children receive inoculations against flu, hepatitis A and other diseases.
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The unprecedented changes have led to diminished vaccine usage, hurt the investment case for some biotechs, and created a drag that will likely dent revenues and raise costs for companies in the coming years, 15 investors and analysts told Reuters.
“Vaccines will not be a growth area under the current administration,” said Stephen Farrelly, global pharma and healthcare lead at ING, signaling a potential drag on the sector through 2028.
VACCINE POLICY UNDER KENNEDY
Kennedy, a longtime anti-vaccine activist who has cast doubt on the safety and efficacy of vaccines contrary to scientific evidence, has moved quickly since taking over the Department of Health and Human Services under Trump.
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He fired a panel of independent expert advisers, replacing them with members who share his anti-vaccine views, and dropped broad COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for pregnant women and children.
He also revived research into a long-ago debunked claim linking vaccines to autism, and adopted new reduced childhood vaccine schedules without the long-standing practice of involving a broad group of outside experts.
Investors and analysts initially saw Kennedy’s appointment as a headline risk, rather than a fundamental threat.
At the time, issues such as tariffs and drug pricing pressure from the Trump administration were weighing on sentiment, putting vaccine concerns on the back burner.
Sanofi Chief Financial Officer François-Xavier Roger last year noted “a little bit of negative buzz” around vaccines.
节点运行失败
That changed as the risks become less theoretical. Investors are now concerned the impact of Kennedy’s policies will be hard to reverse, echoing public health experts’ worries, who also said they will lead to preventable illnesses and deaths.
Kennedy says the changes aim to improve safety and bring U.S. vaccine policy in line with other peer nations.
A HHS spokesperson said in a statement that vaccine recommendations are based on the best available “gold-standard scientific evidence and public health considerations, not corporate interests.”
Shares of large manufacturers vs biotech players
Big vaccine makers include UK-based GSK, France’s Sanofi, U.S. drugmakers Pfizer and Merck, and smaller firms such as Moderna, Novavax and Germany’s BioNTech.
The striking policy changes have begun to prompt some rare public rebukes from industry leaders.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla and Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson criticized Kennedy’s rhetoric at a major healthcare conference last week, with Hudson citing “all the… misinformation that is going around.”
Bourla told reporters it was driving down vaccination rates and increasing disease risk. “I’m seriously frustrated,” he said. “What is happening has zero scientific merit and is just serving an agenda which is political and antivax.”
Over 1.5 billion doses of flu vaccines have been distributed in U.S. this season
POLITICAL PRESSURE STARTS TO BITE
The long-term prospects for vaccine makers remains robust, investors said, as vaccines are still the most effective tool for preventing disease. But they said companies were now more beholden to the whims of political leaders.
“Unfortunately, success and failure will rest on the opinions of a few people. It’s not enough to have good science and commercial opportunity,” said Clear Street analyst Bill Maughan. “If you’re a biotech investor, it just seems tough to really get conviction in a vaccine name right now.”
Investors said they would stick by large-cap drugmakers less dependent on vaccine revenue such as GSK, Sanofi, Pfizer and Merck. Smaller players like Moderna, BioNTech and Novavax face sharper risks.
Share of revenues from vaccines for large manufacturers since 2023
The effect of U.S. changes are already starting to take hold. GSK and Sanofi reported lower U.S. flu vaccine sales in the third quarter, despite a more severe flu season.
In October, Australia’s CSL postponed separating its vaccine unit Seqirus, citing “heightened volatility” and falling U.S. vaccination rates.
“There’s clearly consumer reaction to the narrative that is coming out in the United States,” said Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten.
LONG-TERM VIEW
Some investors said demand for vaccines and disease prevention will likely rebound. Outbreaks such as the rising measles cases in South Carolina, or an extended severe flu season, could drive renewed vaccine usage, they said.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently said the 2025–26 flu season had seen at least 11 million cases and 5,000 deaths reported so far, nearly double last year’s toll.
Medical organizations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics, have challenged Kennedy’s policies in court and it remains to be seen how that will play out.
Investors “often focus on shorter-term time frames, while companies clearly take a far longer-term view,” said Linden Thomson, senior portfolio manager at asset management firm Candriam.
“These businesses have been around for decades. They don’t invest on a one- or two-year horizon,” agreed Matthew Masucci, an analyst for Callodine Capital, which owns GSK and Sanofi shares.
But for now, investors may be more cautious.
Whipsawing U.S. policy and vaccine scepticism is a drag on investment, said Ian Turnbull, an equity analyst at investment firm Mawer.
“It does make it a less attractive market to invest in if your demand isn’t predictable like it used to be,” he said.
Reporting by Bhanvi Satija; Additional reporting by Maggie Fick in London and Michael Erman in New York; Editing by Adam Jourdan, Michele Gershberg and Bill Berkrot