2026-05-20T10:02:22.705Z / reuters.com
美国时任总统唐纳德·特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席凯文·沃什出席在华盛顿国会山举行的参议院银行委员会确认听证会作证，2026年4月21日。路透社/伊丽莎白·弗朗茨/档案照片/档案照片 购买授权，打开新标签页
- 内容摘要
- 美联储决策者在通胀风险和未来降息问题上存在分歧
- 4月会议出现四次异议投票，为1992年以来最多，涉及政策方向争议
- 市场和经济学家预期转向年内不降息，部分机构甚至认为可能加息
华盛顿5月20日路透电 —— 美联储决策者在利率走向和通胀严峻程度上的分歧深度，将于周三随着一份会议纪要公布而公之于众。此次会议是美联储近一代人时间以来分歧最严重的一次，同时也标志着主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期的结束。
随着鲍威尔的继任者凯文·沃什定于周五宣誓就职，周三公布的4月28日至29日会议纪要将关键细节披露给即将迎接他的两派美联储官员：一派人数日益壮大，担忧伊朗战争引发的通胀，反对任何未来降息的言论；另一派人数逐渐减少，仍倾向于降低借贷成本。
路透社伊朗简报通讯将为您带来伊朗战争的最新动态与分析。点击此处订阅。
广告报道
沃什曾表示他享受“良性的党内争论”，并本人提出过支持低利率的论点。他将在特朗普总统主持的白宫仪式上就任美联储主席，特朗普曾明确要求大幅降息，并且此前一直直言不讳。此次会议纪要可能会显示，推行宽松政策的论调将面临多大阻力，尽管特朗普本人最近已淡化了这类预期。
美联储的利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上月将短期政策利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间不变，但有四名决策者提出异议，这是1992年以来最多的一次。
此外，此次异议投票的立场各不相同。一名官员——理事斯蒂芬·米兰，也是特朗普任命的官员，将于周五离开美联储为沃什腾位置——再次投下支持降息的异议票。与此同时，另有三名官员对政策声明中仍暗示美联储可能降息的措辞提出异议。
这三名官员以及会议后几周内的其他官员指出，通胀率远高于美联储2%的目标，且由于美以领导的对伊朗战争加剧了价格压力，短期内通胀可能进一步偏离目标。这场冲突已推动油价上涨逾50%，最新的消费者和批发通胀数据显示，价格压力已开始蔓延至能源行业以外。
他们还指出，稳定的失业率和连续两个月高于预期的就业增长表明，就业市场仍具有韧性，无需通过降息来支撑。
周三公布的会议纪要的一个核心焦点将是用于描述FOMC就货币政策前景展开辩论的章节。例如，3月会议纪要显示，与1月的前一次会议相比，认为应在会后声明中“以双向描述委员会未来利率决策”的决策者人数有所增加。这表明，更多官员认为，如果通胀持续高于目标，加息可能是合适的。
“尽管鉴于强劲的4月就业报告和上周走高的通胀数据，周三的会议纪要略显过时，但它们仍将有助于衡量主张更中性前瞻指引的阵营规模的变化，”德意志银行分析师在纪要发布前写道。
“提醒一下，有三名官员对4月FOMC会议声明前瞻指引措辞中轻微的宽松倾向提出异议。自那次会议以来，美联储官员的言论已略微转向鹰派。”
的确，在鲍威尔执掌美联储八年后，沃什将于6月16日至17日主持他的首次美联储会议，目前市场看不到利率变动的可能，更不用说降息了。
事实上，美国和全球债券市场越来越多地反映出一种共识：美联储和其他主要央行不久将加息，以抵御战争引发的通胀。作为美联储政策预期指标的美国2年期国债收益率，已从2月27日——美国和以色列对伊朗发动空袭的前一天——的略低于3.40%，飙升至周二的4.10%以上，创下15个月来新高。
展示联邦基金利率与2年期收益率对比
与此同时，路透社周二公布的一项民调显示，经济学家的预期发生重大转变，此前他们普遍预期今年会降息，如今只有不到50%的受访者预计12月前会降息，一个月前这一比例还是三分之二。约一半受访者认为今年利率不会变动，还有少数受访者预计至少会加息一次。
丹·伯恩斯报道；千住纪子编辑
我们的标准：汤森路透信托原则，打开新标签页
Divisions awaiting Warsh to be on display in Fed minutes release
2026-05-20T10:02:22.705Z / reuters.com
Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee to be next chair of the Federal Reserve, attends a Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing to testify, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 21, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Fed policymakers split over inflation risks and future rate cuts
- April meeting saw four dissents, most since 1992, over policy direction
- Market and economist expectations shift toward no rate cuts, some see possible hikes
WASHINGTON, May 20 (Reuters) – The depth of the differences among Federal Reserve policymakers’ views on the direction of interest rates and severity of inflation will be on view on Wednesday with the release of a readout of the most divided meeting in a generation, one that also marked the end of Chair Jerome Powell’s leadership tenure.
With Powell’s successor Kevin Warsh set to be sworn in on Friday, Wednesday’s release of the minutes of the April 28-29 meeting will add critical detail about shifts in two blocs of Fed officials waiting to greet him – a growing one wary of the inflation arising from the war in Iran and of any talk of future rate cuts, and a diminishing one still leaning toward lowering borrowing costs.
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.
Report Ad
Warsh, who says he relishes a “good family fight” and has himself laid out arguments in favor of lower interest rates, will become Fed chair at a White House ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump, who appointed him and who has been explicit in his demands for deep rate cuts. The minutes could show just how hard it will be to prevail in an argument for easier policy, though Trump himself has recently downplayed those expectations.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s rate-setting body, left its short-term policy rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% last month, but four policymakers dissented, the most since 1992.
Moreover, the dissents were mixed. One official – Governor Stephen Miran, another Trump appointee who will leave the Fed on Friday to vacate a seat for Warsh – dissented in favor, again, of a rate cut. Three others, meanwhile, dissented over the continued use of language in the accompanying policy statement that suggests the Fed still may cut rates.
Those three – and others in the weeks since the meeting – point to inflation that is running well above the Fed’s 2% target and likely to move further away from it in the near term thanks to widening price pressures aggravated by the U.S-Israeli-led war on Iran. The conflict has sent oil prices up by more than 50%, and the latest consumer and wholesale inflation data show price pressures have begun widening beyond the energy sector.
They also note a steady jobless rate and two months of stronger-than-expected job creation indicate the employment market remains resilient and is not in need of lower interest rates to prop it up.
A key focus in Wednesday’s readout will be a section used to describe the FOMC debate about the outlook for monetary policy. The minutes of the March meeting, for instance, showed an increase from the prior meeting in January in the number of policymakers who felt there was a case for a “two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions in the postmeeting statement”. That indicated that more among them felt a rate hike could be appropriate if inflation were to remain above target.
“While Wednesday’s minutes are somewhat stale in light of the solid April jobs report and last week’s elevated inflation readings, they will nonetheless be useful for benchmarking the evolving size of the group advocating for more neutral forward guidance,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote ahead of the release.
“As a reminder, three officials dissented to the slight easing bias in the forward guidance language of the April FOMC meeting statement. Since that meeting, the Fedspeak has moved in a somewhat more hawkish direction.”
Indeed, after eight years with Powell at the helm, Warsh will convene his first Fed meeting on June 16-17 with no prospect seen for a change in rates, and certainly not a cut.
U.S. and global bond markets, in fact, increasingly reflect a conviction that the Fed and other top central banks will be lifting interest rates before long to lean against war-induced inflation. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, a proxy for Fed policy expectations, has shot from just below 3.40% on February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel launched air strikes against Iran, to a 15-month high above 4.10% on Tuesday.
Shows the Fed funds rate versus the 2-year yield
Meanwhile, a Reuters poll on Tuesday showed a hefty shift among economists away from previously solid expectations for rate cuts this year, with fewer than 50% now projecting a reduction by December, down from two-thirds just a month earlier. Roughly half see no change in rates this year, and a handful of respondents penciled in at least one rate hike.
Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
