2026-04-14T10:00:56.566Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：爱德华·吴
更新于6分钟前
更新时间：2026年4月14日美国东部时间上午8:01
发布时间：2026年4月14日美国东部时间上午6:00
2026年4月3日，在弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯县费尔法克斯县政府中心，一名选民在完成弗吉尼亚州选区重划公投的提前投票后领取“我已投票”贴纸。
朱莉娅·德马雷·尼基森/美联社
弗吉尼亚州的提前投票数据显示，民主党在推动通过一项可能让他们在今年秋季中期选举中拿下多达4个美国国会席位的选区重划方案方面占据优势。
支持此次4月21日特别选举重划方案的团体此前一直将4月11日周六视为关键观察节点，当天多个县开放了额外的提前投票站点，其中包括华盛顿特区郊区北弗吉尼亚州的多个人口密集、倾向民主党的县。
鉴于国会众议院席位差距极小，以及去年在唐纳德·特朗普总统授意下发起的全国性选区重划斗争，下周的公投对今年秋季的中期选举至关重要。
众议院议长迈克·约翰逊本周末与多名弗吉尼亚州共和党议员一同开展竞选活动，若公投获得通过，这些议员的选区将被大幅重划。次日，民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯在里士满召集支持者集会，这表明两人都在积极争夺能决定众议院多数席位归属的少量席位。
根据选民数据公司L2的数据，周六当天共有近6.3万选民进行了线下提前投票，略高于去年民主党拿下全部三个全州公职选举当天的同期数据。
今年的投票似乎更倾向民主党，且投票更集中在北弗吉尼亚州地区。北弗吉尼亚州的投票率比去年同期高出约46%，该地区的全州提前投票占比从去年的41%升至约57%。
总体提前投票数据显示，全州各类投票方式的党派投票参与率与去年同期基本持平，去年民主党候选人阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格在该州州长选举中以15个百分点的优势轻松获胜。
由于弗吉尼亚州不进行政党登记，党派投票参与率通过对比过去五次主要选举中仅参与单一政党初选的选民人数来衡量。今年和去年一样，提前线下投票或邮寄投票的民主党初选参与者的投票率比共和党初选参与者高出8个百分点。
但不同地区存在差异。尽管周六北弗吉尼亚州的投票率很高，但全州提前投票量较2025年同期的缺口全部来自该地区。该州其他地区截至周六的投票量比2025年同期多出约5000张，而北弗吉尼亚州的投票量仍比2025年同期落后约3.9万张。
CNN的分析发现，这一差距主要与今年提前投票的投票渠道变化有关。
与2025年相比，北弗吉尼亚州在选举日前最后三周的大部分时间里，提前投票渠道有所缩减，这似乎抑制了该地区的选举前投票率。例如，威廉王子县在4月11日之前的一周仅开放了一个投票点，而去年同期开放了六个投票点。弗吉尼亚州人口最多的费尔法克斯县，去年提前两天就开放了16个投票点，而今年仅开放了3个。
因投票渠道变化错过提前投票的北弗吉尼亚州选民可能会转向选举日当天投票。但即使该地区的投票量未能达到去年的水平，反对选区重划的一方仍面临一场硬仗。
反对重划的一方单纯在去年选举的基础上超过共和党选民参与度还不够，他们需要大幅提升投票率，才能弥补共和党州长候选人温索姆·厄尔-西尔斯在全州范围内15个百分点的落后差距。
反对重划阵营面临的全国性逆风
“反对”阵营的竞选资金远少于对手，且当前的选举环境明显有利于民主党支持的议题。此次公投若能获胜甚至仅以微弱差距落败，都将与全国性的政治趋势背道而驰。
自唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫以来，民主党选民的积极性高涨，再加上对独立选民和共和党选民的说服工作到位，使得民主党在历次选举中表现始终强劲。去年11月加州类似的选区重划提案以29个百分点的优势获得通过，比民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年在该州的领先优势高出9个百分点。
《华盛顿邮报》与乔治·梅森大学沙尔学院近期针对该公投议案的一项民调显示，共和党选民的投票积极性具有显著优势，共和党选民表示“肯定会投票”的比例比民主党高出约7个百分点。即便存在这一优势，民调中的可能选民仍以5个百分点的优势支持该重划选区的修正案。
除了投票率变化外，反对选区重划公投的另一成功途径可能是说服选民改变立场。但《华盛顿邮报》-沙尔学院的民调发现，政治独立人士支持该议案，党派选民和倾向党派的选民几乎没有倒戈。
本文已补充更多信息后更新。
CNN的珍妮弗·阿吉耶斯塔对本文亦有贡献。
Early voting points to an edge for Virginia Democrats trying to enact a US House map that could flip four seats
2026-04-14T10:00:56.566Z / CNN
By Edward Wu
Updated 6 min ago
Updated Apr 14, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
PUBLISHED Apr 14, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
A person takes an “I Voted” sticker after voting early in the Virginia redistricting referendum, at the Fairfax County Government Center in Fairfax, Virginia, on April 3, 2026.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
Early voting data from Virginia suggests Democrats have an advantage in their push to enact a gerrymander that could net them as many as four US House seats in this fall’s midterms.
Groups backing the redistricting measure in an April 21 special election had long pointed to Saturday, April 11, as a date to watch, when many counties opened additional early voting sites. This included several population-heavy, Democratic-leaning counties in the Washington, DC, suburbs of Northern Virginia.
Next week’s referendum has major stakes for this fall’s midterms given the razor-thin House majority and the national redistricting battle launched at President Donald Trump’s behest last year.
House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned this weekend with several Virginia Republicans whose seats would be sharply redrawn if the referendum succeeds. A day later, Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries rallied supporters in Richmond, a sign of how both he and Johnson are aggressively fighting for a handful of seats that could help tip the House majority.
Nearly 63,000 early in-person votes were cast on Saturday, according to data from L2, slightly higher than the equivalent day ahead of last fall’s election in which Democrats swept all three statewide offices.
This year’s vote appeared more Democratic-leaning and more concentrated in Northern Virginia. Turnout in Northern Virginia was about 46% higher than the equivalent date last year, and roughly 57% of the statewide vote was cast in the region, up from 41% last year.
The early vote data overall finds that Saturday ended with partisan turnout across voting methods throughout the state basically unchanged from the equivalent point last year, when Democrat Abigail Spanberger cruised to victory by 15 points in the state’s gubernatorial race.
Partisan turnout is measured by comparing counts of voters who participated in only one party’s primaries over the last five major ones, since Virginia does not have party registration. Both last year and this year, Democratic primary participants had an 8-point lead in turnout early in-person or by mail over Republican primary participants.
There are some geographic differences. Despite the strong turnout in Northern Virginia on Saturday itself, the entirety of the shortfall in early votes relative to this point in 2025 comes from Northern Virginia. While the rest of the state had cast about 5,000 more votes through Saturday than it had in 2025 at this point, Northern Virginia still lags behind its 2025 turnout by about 39,000 votes.
CNN’s analysis found that this difference largely coincided with changes to access in early voting relative to last year.
Early voting access in Northern Virginia for much of the final three weeks before Election Day has been pared down compared with 2025, and it appears to be dampening pre-election turnout in the region. Prince William County, for example, had just one voting location open in the week ahead of April 11, compared with six locations during the same week last year. And Fairfax County, Virginia’s most populous county, expanded from three voting locations to 16 voting locations two days earlier last year than this year.
Northern Virginia voters who missed out on early voting due to access changes could shift to Election Day. But even if that area falls short of last year’s vote totals, opponents of redistricting face an uphill battle.
It would not be enough for the anti-redistricting side to simply outperform Republicans in last year’s election. A considerable improvement would be required to erase the 15-point statewide deficit notched by Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears.
National headwinds for the ‘No’ campaign
The “No” campaign has been heavily outspent and faces an electoral environment that has decidedly favored Democratic-aligned causes. A win or even a close loss would buck national trends.
A strongly motivated Democratic base and persuasion among independent and Republican voters have led to consistently strong Democratic performances in elections since Donald Trump’s return to the White House. A similar redistricting push in California won by 29 points last November, nine points ahead of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ 2024 margin in the state.
A recent poll from the Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School on the ballot measure found Republicans with a considerable advantage in motivation to vote, with Republicans about 7 points likelier than Democrats to describe themselves as certain to vote. Even with that advantage, likely voters in the poll supported the amendment to redraw the state’s districts by a 5-point margin.
Aside from turnout shifts, another path to success for those who oppose the redistricting ballot measure could come via persuasion. But the Post-Schar poll found political independents in favor of the measure, with few defections among partisans and partisan-leaners.
This story has been updated with additional information.
CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.