By Nolan D. McCaskill
2026年2月27日 上午11:02 UTC 更新于19分钟前
美国参议员约翰·科宁（R-TX）于2025年7月15日在美国华盛顿特区国会山走向参议院会议厅。路透社/Ken Cedeno/资料图片 购买许可权，在新标签页打开
- 摘要
- 科宁警告，帕克斯顿的提名可能危及共和党参议院多数席位
- 尽管丑闻缠身，帕克斯顿仍在民调中领先，吸引保守派选民
- 帕克斯顿的崛起反映了得克萨斯州共和党向强硬政治的转变
休斯顿，2月27日（路透社） – 由于共和党正捍卫着微弱的参议院多数席位，得克萨斯州一场混乱的初选可能会将该党最安全的席位之一变成争夺国会控制权的意外战场——现任参议员约翰·科宁警告称，这种局面将对得州共和党人而言是“死亡之吻”。
民调显示，74岁的科宁——2002年首次当选参议员的传统建制派保守派——目前落后于63岁的得州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。帕克斯顿是特朗普的民粹主义盟友，通过在堕胎、跨性别者权利和投票限制等问题上对民主党发起激进法律挑战而建立了自己的形象。
路透社”内幕追踪”通讯是您了解全球体育重大赛事的必备指南。请在此注册。
广告 · 继续阅读
如果帕克斯顿在周二的党内初选中胜出，或者若无人获得超过50%的选票而进入5月26日的决选，他将在11月的中期选举中面临民主党挑战者。分析人士称，由于他尖锐的意识形态立场和丑闻历史，这场竞选中他可能难以获胜。
民主党若获胜——尽管希望渺茫，但仍有可能——将是一场政治地震。得州是共和党权力的基石，正如加州是民主党的大本营，自1994年以来该州尚无民主党人赢得过全州范围的选举。
科宁在竞选活动最后几天加强了言论，称提名帕克斯顿可能导致共和党人在11月遭遇“选举大屠杀”，并危及他们脆弱的参议院多数席位。
“肯·帕克斯顿将成为2026年11月共和党候选人的死亡之吻，”科宁2月19日在休斯顿一家有机餐厅和体育酒吧外向一小群支持者发表讲话后告诉记者。
帕克斯顿指责对手散布恐惧，并表示有信心如果能在初选中胜出，他作为州检察长的履历将帮助他在11月获胜。
“看看我的履历，在短短两周内我为得州选民和民众做的事比他40年来做的还要多，”他在2月20日休斯顿外的集会上对记者说。
周二的初选将是得州、北卡罗来纳州和阿肯色州正式启动2026年选举季的重要环节，选民将在此选择中期选举的候选人。
广告 · 继续阅读
白宫所在政党在中期选举中历来会失利，民主党只需要在11月翻转四个席位就能在特朗普总统任期最后两年控制参议院。
与特朗普的亲近程度
科宁、帕克斯顿以及两届美国众议员韦斯理·亨特（44岁）展开了三人角逐。政治专家预计，最终决选将在科宁和帕克斯顿之间产生。
这场竞争更多取决于候选人与总统唐纳德·特朗普的亲近程度，而非政策差异。
2月18日，在得州东部那科多契斯市一家烧烤餐厅的竞选活动中，亨特注意到附近静音电视上的特朗普后短暂停顿。
“我上周和他在一起，”他告诉支持者，“他是个好人。”
三位候选人都是特朗普盟友，但政治分析师认为科宁因两党合作而最不保守，帕克斯顿因过去争议而最不可选，亨特则知名度最低。
特朗普将于周五前往得州发表经济演讲。他尚未支持任何候选人，这一举措可能影响犹豫不决的选民。本月早些时候，他在空军一号上告诉记者，他“喜欢并支持这三个人”。
认为自己无懈可击
科宁得到参议院共和党领导层和前州长里克·佩里的支持。他的盟友已投入超过6000万美元用于竞选，试图减缓帕克斯顿的崛起。
科宁将竞选重点放在“品格对选民至关重要”的前提上，反复提及帕克斯顿的一长串争议，包括2023年因被指控滥用公共资源、贿赂和滥用公共信任而被得州众议院弹劾，但在州参议院被无罪释放。
“我知道他即使面对所有丑闻和包袱仍认为自己无懈可击……我保证在大选中，这将成为共和党所有候选人的沉重负担，”科宁在休斯顿竞选活动中对记者说。
帕克斯顿驳斥科宁以品格为重点的攻击是政治作秀，他对路透社表示：“他完全不诚实，歪曲了自己的履历，也对我进行了谎言攻击。”
州民调显示帕克斯顿领先，这表明他在保守派选民中颇受欢迎。政治分析师称，选民对丑闻的关注度已不如从前，得州保守派选民需要一位不妥协的斗士。
帕克斯顿的激进法律行动，尤其是针对得州移民组织和所谓非法投票的高调攻击，赢得了保守派活动人士的赞扬。
科宁的职业生涯建立在立法妥协之上，曾与民主党跨党派合作。2023年，他称特朗普无法再次当选，激怒了特朗普支持者；更早的2021年，他拒绝加入推翻拜登选举胜利的行动。
他上一次竞选是2020年，以近10个百分点的优势获胜，超过了特朗普在该州5.5个百分点的胜选优势。
得州共和党转向
分析人士称，帕克斯顿的胜选将凸显了得克萨斯州共和党近年来的转变，与党内强硬派立场一致的候选人正逐步取代更具建制色彩的资深共和党人。特朗普在2024年总统选举中以14个百分点的优势赢得该州。
“如果是在大选阶段，我们会认为科宁会轻松获胜，”南卫理公会大学政治学教授卡尔·吉尔森说，“但共和党初选民调只占总选民的一小部分，且目前严重偏向‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）选民，这让帕克斯顿有明显优势。”
分析师指出，帕克斯顿已展示了他能赢得全州范围选举的能力，例如2014年、2018年和2022年的检察长选举。但他们与科宁在一点上达成共识：帕克斯顿的提名将使该州竞争加剧，需要大量党内资源来抵御民主党挑战者。
最近民调显示，帕克斯顿在与民主党候选人——美国众议员贾丝敏·克罗克特和州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科——的大选对决中仅以微弱优势领先。亨特在共和党候选人中知名度最低，但对民主党领先优势最大。
报道：Nolan D. McCaskill，编辑：Ross Colvin和David Gaffen
我们的标准：汤森路透信托原则，在新标签页打开
As Trump allies battle in Texas, a safe Republican Senate seat suddenly looks fragile
By Nolan D. McCaskill
February 27, 2026 11:02 AM UTC Updated 19 mins ago
节点运行失败
U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) walks to the Senate floor on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 15, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Cornyn warns Paxton’s nomination risks Republican Senate majority
- Despite scandals, Paxton leads polls, appeals to conservative voters
- Paxton’s rise reflects Texas Republicans’ shift towards hardline politics
HOUSTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) – With Republicans defending a narrow Senate majority, a messy Texas primary threatens to turn one of the party’s safest seats into an unexpected battleground for control of Congress – a scenario incumbent John Cornyn warns would be the “kiss of death” for Republicans in Texas.
Public opinion polls show Cornyn, 74, a traditional establishment conservative first elected to the Senate in 2002, trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63, a populist Trump ally who has built his profile through aggressive legal challenges against Democrats on issues like abortion, transgender rights and voting restrictions.
The Reuters Inside Track newsletter is your essential guide to the biggest events in global sport. Sign up here.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
Report Ad
If Paxton prevails in Tuesday’s party primary, or a May 26 runoff if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, he would face a Democratic challenger in the November midterm elections, a race analysts say he could struggle to win because of his sharp ideological positioning and history of scandals.
A Democratic win – a longshot, but still a possibility – would be a political earthquake. Texas is the bedrock of Republican power as California is for Democrats, and no Democrat has won a statewide race there since 1994.
Cornyn has intensified his rhetoric in the final days of the campaign, arguing that nominating Paxton could lead to an “electoral massacre” for Republicans and jeopardize their slim Senate majority.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
“Ken Paxton will be the kiss of death for Republicans on the ticket in November of 2026,” the senator told reporters after addressing a small group of supporters outside an organic eatery and sports bar in Houston on February 19.
Paxton accuses his opponent of fear-mongering and says he is confident his track record as state attorney general will help him prevail in November should he win the primary.
“You look at my record, I’ve done more in two weeks for the voters and the constituents of Texas than he’s done in 40 years,” he told reporters after a February 20 rally outside of Houston.
Tuesday’s primary will be one of the most closely watched when Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas formally kick off the 2026 election season as the first states where voters will choose nominees for the midterm contests.
Ad Break Coming Up节点运行失败NEXT Stay Next Off English 480p Auto (480p)About Connatix V206809948 About Connatix V206809948 1/1 Skip Ad Continue watching after the ad节点运行失败
The party that controls the White House historically suffers losses in midterms, and Democrats only need to flip four seats in November to gain control of the Senate for the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
PROXIMITY TO TRUMP
Cornyn and Paxton are in a three-way primary with two-term U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, 44. Political experts expect the race to be decided in a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.
The race hinges more on the candidates’ perceived closeness to President Donald Trump than on policy.
At a campaign event on February 18 inside a barbecue restaurant in the eastern Texas city of Nacogdoches, Hunt paused briefly after noticing Trump on a nearby muted television.
“I was with him last week,” he told supporters. “He is a good man.”
All three candidates are Trump allies, but political analysts consider Cornyn the least conservative because of his bipartisanship, Paxton the least electable because of his past controversies and Hunt the least known.
Trump travels to Texas on Friday to deliver a speech on the economy. He has yet to endorse a candidate, a move that could help to sway undecided voters. He told reporters aboard Air Force One earlier this month that he likes and supports “all three of them.”
‘THINKS HE’S BULLETPROOF’
Cornyn is backed by Senate Republican leadership and former Governor Rick Perry. His allies have pumped more than $60 million into the race to try to slow Paxton’s rise.
Cornyn has staked his campaign on the premise that character matters to voters, repeatedly pointing to Paxton’s long list of controversies, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House on allegations of misuse of public resources, bribery and abuse of public trust, for which he was acquitted in the state Senate.
“I know he still thinks he’s bulletproof even with all the scandals and the baggage … Well, I guarantee in a general election it will be a dead weight around the neck of Republicans up and down the ticket,” Cornyn told reporters at the Houston campaign stop.
Paxton dismissed Cornyn’s character‑focused attack as political posturing, telling Reuters: “He’s being completely dishonest about his record, and he’s being very dishonest about me.”
State opinion polls show Paxton in the lead, a sign of his appeal among conservative voters. Voters don’t care about scandals like they used to, political analysts say, and conservative voters in Texas want an uncompromising fighter.
Paxton’s aggressive legal campaigns, particularly his high-profile attacks on Texas immigration groups and what he calls illegal voting, have won praise from conservative activists.
Cornyn has built his career on legislative compromise and has worked across the aisle with Democrats. He raised the ire of Trump supporters by saying in 2023 that Trump could not win another election, and earlier by refusing to join efforts in 2021 to overturn former President Joe Biden’s election victory.
His last contest was in 2020, when he won reelection by nearly 10 points, outpacing Trump’s five-and-a-half point win in the state.
TEXAS REPUBLICAN SHIFT
A Paxton win would underscore how much Texas Republican politics has shifted in recent years, analysts said, with candidates aligned with the party’s more hardline wing steadily displacing older, more establishment-oriented Republicans. Trump carried the state by 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
“If we were talking about the general election, we’d be talking about Cornyn winning comfortably,” said Cal Jillson, a Southern Methodist University political science professor. “But the Republican primary electorate is just such a sliver of the total electorate and so skewed toward MAGA at this point that it gives Paxton a clear advantage.”
Analysts said Paxton has already demonstrated he can win statewide, pointing to his attorney general elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022. But they agree with Cornyn on one point – a Paxton nomination would make the state more competitive and require significant party resources to fend off a Democratic challenger.
Recent polls show Paxton holding the smallest advantage in general election matchups against the Democratic candidates: U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and state Representative James Talarico. Representative Hunt has the lowest name recognition in the Republican field but holds the largest lead over Democrats.
Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill, editing by Ross Colvin and David Gaffen
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
