作者： root

8 big questions on the first primary day of 2026

Analysis by Aaron Blake, 2 hr ago, PUBLISHED Mar 2, 2026, 5:00 AM ET

The 2026 election lurches to a start on Tuesday, as voters head to the polls for the first state primaries in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas.

The big ticket is the US Senate race in Texas, but there’s plenty more for political watchers to keep an eye on.

Here are some of the big questions.

Do Texas Democrats choose pragmatism or fire?

The two Texas Senate primaries are clearly the marquee races. But we’re putting the Democratic race first because it’s much more likely to be decided Tuesday.

The three-way GOP primary appears to be more about which two candidates make the May runoff. But on the Democratic side, it’s about Rep. Jasmine Crockett vs. state Rep. James Talarico. (There is a third candidate on the Democratic side, but a minor one.)

Crockett led by 8 points in a late January University of Houston poll and by 12 points in a University of Texas poll conducted in early-to-mid-February. But those polls are a bit dated, and Talarico is thought to have a real chance.

The choice for Democrats echoes their broader strategic choice in the Trump era: Do they go with an anti-Trump firebrand who can motivate the base (Crockett), or with the kind of candidate who at least notionally has more appeal to the political middle (Talarico)?

Crockett has made a name for herself with viral appearances at congressional hearings; Talarico is largely known as the rare Democrat who emphasizes his Christian faith.

Early-voting turnout in their primary has been big — bigger than for the Republicans.

It’s too simple to say that Talarico is the more electable of the two. We live in a new political era where there’s a lot to be said for building an online following and motivating the base.

And the University of Houston poll showed little difference between how the two Democrats perform in the general election. Both of them were within 4 points of whichever Republican they faced.

But this is also Texas, where Democrats haven’t won any statewide office since 1994. That means there’s a huge premium on picking the kind of candidate who could take advantage of a rare opportunity to end that streak. (Democrats will feel better about their chances if the GOP nominee winds up being baggage-laden state Attorney General Ken Paxton.)

The stakes for getting this right are bigger than you might think. While Texas is normally a long-shot Democratic target, the blue team needs to win red states to win back the Senate this year — likely at least two of the following: Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.

Texas isn’t a must-win, but it’s a race Democrats would very much like to put in play. And that starts with picking the right candidates.

How ugly is the Texas GOP Senate contest going to get?

Apparently, very. And it could be extended.

Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn launched a brutal ad saying Paxton “cheated on his wife” and citing various other “dirty deeds.” (Paxton’s wife has accused him of adultery and filed for divorce last year on “biblical grounds.” CNN has not verified all of the ad’s claims.) He also called Paxton a “crook” in an interview with Politico.

Paxton has responded by dispatching his daughter to defend him and accusing Cornyn of damaging the GOP’s chances in the general election.

“The Democrats’ biggest ally in this race is the kamikaze campaign Cornyn’s running,” Paxton posted on X on Friday. “He’s desperate, he knows he is going to lose, and his only … goal is to hurt me and the party.”

As noted, it’s unlikely the GOP nomination will be resolved on Tuesday. But that doesn’t mean there’s not a lot at stake.

The emergence of Rep. Wesley Hunt as a viable third option next to the two front-runners, Paxton and Cornyn, makes it less likely anybody gets to 50% and avoids a runoff. Neither the University of Houston poll nor the University of Texas poll showed any candidate breaking 40%.

Political rhetoric aside, a real truth undergirds Paxton’s comment. Imagine a 12-week runoff during which these guys can really rip the bark off each other. Imagine if Paxton wins the runoff and Democrats can point to all the ugly things the Cornyn campaign and the national GOP (which is supporting the incumbent) said about him in the primary.

Unfortunately for the GOP, that seems the likeliest scenario.

But the specific results on Tuesday also matter, even if it’s a runoff.

For one, Crockett winning the Democratic primary could give Republicans more confidence about voting for Paxton in the general election, since the GOP views her as the weaker Democratic opponent. Likewise, Talarico winning might be a boon to Cornyn.

For two, Cornyn’s and Paxton’s performances could matter when it comes to landing the crucial endorsement of President Donald Trump. The conventional wisdom says that if the incumbent trails in the primary, they’re unlikely to win the runoff –— and maybe Trump doesn’t endorse. So Cornyn probably wants to keep it close or even lead.

While presidents usually don’t endorse against incumbents, if a Paxton win looks inevitable, maybe Trump breaks with that norm and backs him over Cornyn to avoid an uglier runoff.

How strong is Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race?

It’s expected that the open North Carolina Senate race will come down to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. Both should win their primaries on Tuesday.

But there are questions about just how much Whatley has locked down the GOP base, even as he’s secured Trump’s endorsement.

Trump ally Steve Bannon has said that Whatley is “not MAGA” and that MAGA voters are “just not enthusiastic about” him. Cooper has also picked off some Republican voters, at least when running for governor. (It’s usually more difficult to get crossover support when you’re running for federal office.)

Tuesday should be a good test, given Whatley faces some more-MAGA candidates, including Michele Morrow, a former candidate for state schools superintendent, and lawyer Don Brown.

Is Rep. Tony Gonzales sunk?

Rep. Tony Gonzales, a three-term Republican from the 23rd District, survived his primary in 2024 by just 354 votes.

And given the exceedingly ugly recent disclosures about his alleged affair with a staffer who later died by suicide, it would seem an uphill battle to win his rematch with gun-rights activist Brandon Herrera.

Some Republicans have even called for Gonzales to resign. Trump previously endorsed him. On Friday, as the president reupped his endorsements of House Republicans in Texas, he skipped over mentioning Gonzales. But he later called him a “great congressman.”

Gonzales has resisted the pressure, but a primary loss could make it hard to justify sticking around. And he could reason that he’s already lost his seat, which stretches from the San Antonio area into West Texas.

If he leaves early, that could be bad for Republicans, who are already struggling with a tiny House majority.

And Dan Crenshaw too?

GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw won his 2024 primary in Texas’ 2nd District by a wider margin than Gonzales. But he still came up shy of 60% against an underfunded opponent. That’s the danger zone. And his occasional swipes at more extreme portions of the GOP base make him vulnerable.

His race also features an unusual setup. Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott haven’t endorsed him. And Sen. Ted Cruz has endorsed and cut an ad for his primary opponent, state Rep. Steve Toth.

The ad doesn’t mention Crenshaw, but Cruz clearly takes a swipe at him, saying, “You deserve an unwavering fighter, a Republican who walks the walk.”

Were Crenshaw to lose a primary, it would be a big setback for someone once thought to be a possible candidate for higher office.

Are Democrats recovering with Latinos in South Texas?

Republicans placed a big bet when they tried to draw five new GOP congressional districts in Texas last year: that they could keep Trump’s big gains among Latino voters in South Texas from 2024.

But Latinos have soured on Trump faster than just about any other group since that election.

And if they swing hard back toward Democrats, the new districts could backfire on Republicans. It’s a concept called a “dummymander.”

Keep an eye out for whether turnout in the Democratic primaries in South Texas is higher than the GOP primaries.

Who does the GOP get in a top-targeted race in North Carolina?

Republicans targeted Democratic Rep. Don Davis of North Carolina with their mid-decade redistricting last year. He survived in a Trump-voting district in 2024, but now it’s a double-digit Trump district and one of the GOP’s most attractive pickup opportunities.

One of the hopefuls is Laurie Buckhout, a former Trump administration official who fell to Davis by just 2 points in the old district in 2024. The crowded GOP field also includes local Sheriff Asa Buck and state Sen. Bobby Hanig.

Could a powerful longtime state legislator fall?

It takes a lot for a state legislative race to make a list like this. But Republican North Carolina Senate President Phil Berger’s tough primary against Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page qualifies.

For one, Berger has held that position for 15 years.

For another, it’s been a powerful post. North Carolina has had a lot of Democratic governors of late. But because it’s often had veto-proof Republican state legislative majorities, that means Berger has exercised outsized power in the state.

And the contest is so big that Trump has actually endorsed in a state legislative race. He backed Berger after the incumbent gave him his much-desired new congressional map last year. Trump even offered Page a job in his administration to get him out of the race.

But Page stayed in, and now we see if Berger can survive.

黎巴嫩真主党加入战局 以色列反击或持续多日

2026年3月2日 19:18 / 联合早报

黎巴嫩贝鲁特南部哈雷特·赫雷克地区（Haret Hreik）星期一（3月2日）遭受以色列空袭，当地建筑物与汽车受到严重破坏。 （法新社）

（贝鲁特／耶路撒冷综合电）美伊战争进一步扩大，黎巴嫩真主党星期一向以色列发射火箭炮和无人机，报复以色列与美国联手刺杀伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊。以色列随即对真主党发起进攻，并警告战斗或持续多日。

以色列国防军总参谋长扎米尔星期一（3月2日）宣布，以色列已对黎巴嫩真主党发起进攻，并指以军必须做好战斗数日，甚至更久的准备。

他称：“我们已为多线作战，以及对真主党的进攻做好准备。任何威胁我们安全的敌人都将付出沉重代价。我们不会允许以色列居民或北部边境受到伤害。”

以色列北方司令部司令米洛同日誓言，以军将加大对黎巴嫩的打击力度。

以军说，星期一在贝鲁特与黎巴嫩南部实施数十次空袭，击中真主党的总部与基础设施，以及一辆载有真主党精锐拉德万部队（Radwan Force）两名成员的车辆。

声明说，以军也打击了身处贝鲁特的真主党高级成员，但没有提供更多细节。据阿拉伯卫星电视台报道，真主党高级领导人拉德（Mohammad Raad）在以军空袭中身亡，他是真主党议会党团领袖。

黎巴嫩卫生部说，以色列的空袭造成至少31人死亡、149人受伤。

以军已向黎巴嫩南部和东部约50个村镇的居民发布疏散警告。法新社报道，黎南居民纷纷举家逃离，导致道路拥堵。

星期一凌晨，以色列北部城市海法与周边地区响起空袭警报。以军说，以防空系统拦截了一枚火箭炮，并击落至少两架疑似无人机，另有数枚火箭炮坠落在空旷地带。此次袭击未造成伤亡或破坏。

以军说，袭击源头是黎巴嫩。真主党随后证实，向海法以南的一个以色列军事目标发射了“大量高质量导弹和无人机群”，为哈梅内伊复仇，并回应以色列对黎巴嫩的持续侵略。伊朗称，真主党已正式加入战局。

黎领导人斥真主党卷入美伊冲突 谴责以军袭击领土

这是自2024年11月以黎停火以来，真主党首次袭击以色列。尽管黎巴嫩政府敦促真主党不要卷入美伊冲突，但真主党领袖卡西姆星期天（1日）誓言，为美以袭击伊朗展开对抗，并称真主党不会离开“荣誉与抵抗的战场”。

以色列防长卡茨星期一称，卡西姆在伊朗施压下，决定对以色列开火。卡茨警告他已被列为“清除目标”。

黎巴嫩总统奥恩星期一说，从黎境内发射的火箭弹，是为破坏黎巴嫩为远离地区冲突所做的努力。他也谴责以色列对黎巴嫩领土的袭击。

黎总理萨拉姆同日强调：“我们绝不允许国家被拖入新的冒险行动，并将采取一切必要措施追究责任方，保护黎巴嫩人民。”

英国收紧难民庇护规定 以减少移民涌入 | 联合早报

发布/2026年3月2日 19:46 | 联合早报

（伦敦法新电）英国政府宣布，难民庇护制度改革星期一（3月2日）正式生效，新规将大幅削减对难民及其子女的保护力度。

根据新规，成人难民及随行子女的难民身份将改为临时性质，每30个月需进行一次审核。那些所在国家现被视为安全的，将被遣返原籍国。不过，无人陪伴的未成年人不受新规影响，他们仍可获得为期五年的保护身份。

英国政府早在去年11月就宣布收紧庇护和移民政策。英国内政部长马哈茂德在一份声明中说，必须确保庇护制度不会成为吸引人们踏上危险旅程、助长人口贩运的因素。

这项强硬政策被视为工党政府试图挽回极右翼改革党日益高涨的支持率。但慈善机构，以及首相斯塔默领导的中左翼工党旗下议员猛烈抨击这些政策调整，认为此举将迫使已在英国定居的难民流离失所。

其他拟议改革，包括将难民申请永久居留权的等待时间，从目前的五年延长至20年，需要获得国会批准。

英国政府说，他们从丹麦汲取灵感。丹麦在收紧移民政策后，庇护申请数量降至40年来的最低水平。

根据英国内政部去年11月发布的报告，截至2025年9月的这一年中，超过11万人在英国申请庇护，其中许多人是为了逃离冲突地区，这比上一年增加13%，较2002年创下的历史峰值10万3081人增加7%。

申请庇护人数最多的五个国家为巴基斯坦、厄立特里亚、伊朗、阿富汗和孟加拉。

Why John Cornyn, a Senate GOP stalwart, could lose his Texas primary

March 2, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. EST Today at 5:00 a.m. EST / The Washington Post

The four-term senator is determined to prevail Tuesday against two challengers who view him as a relic of the George W. Bush era. The race could go to a runoff in May.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) at the U.S. Capitol on March 25. (Maansi Srivastava/For The Washington Post)

By Matthew Choi
,
Theodoric Meyer
and
Molly Hennessy-Fiske

FORT WORTH — Barely a year ago, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas)came close to becoming the Senate’s most powerful Republican. A former top lieutenant to Sen. Mitch McConnell while the Kentuckian was majority leader, Cornyn has built a reputation over more than two decades in the Senate as a staunch conservative who could still compromise with Democrats, an enormously prolific fundraiser and an architect of the Republican takeover of what is now the country’s biggest red state. He demolished every primary challenger he faced in three reelection races.

Hospitals are making cuts after ‘big beautiful bill,’ fueling Democrats’ midterm attacks

2026-03-02T10:00:34.998Z / CNN

In northeast Georgia, a hospital closed its maternity ward. In rural New Hampshire, a community health center shuttered. And in Iowa, a Des Moines hospital system laid off dozens of employees and closed a clinic.

All these providers cited President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda package, which slashed more than $1 trillion in federal support for health care, as a factor in their decisions.

The legislation, known as the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act,” is expected to leave millions more Americans without coverage and to cut vital financial support for hospitals – a combination that could force already cash-strapped providers to pull back on services and staffing, leaving patients with fewer places and longer waits for care, particularly in emergency rooms.

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At the legislation’s signing, President Donald Trump touted its tax and border security provisions, downplaying the impact of the health care cuts. The administration and GOP lawmakers often refer to the package as the “Working Families Tax Cut Act.”

But Republicans hoping to tout the legislation as a point in their favor in November are confronting an escalating political backlash to the emerging consequences of those cuts, as lawmakers who supported it take the blame.

Many hospitals, particularly those in rural areas or who treat a lot of underserved patients, have been struggling financially for years, contending with rising expenses, workforce shortages, an aging population and federal reimbursement rates that don’t cover the cost of care. Nearly 200 rural hospitals have closed or stopped providing inpatient care since 2005, according to the Sheps Center for Health Services Research.

The “big, beautiful bill” will increase that fiscal strain, experts say. Its historic cuts to Medicaid, which include adding the first-ever work requirement to the safety net program, are expected to leave 7.5 million more people uninsured over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Other provisions push up that figure to a total of 10 million.

But when many of those folks get sick, they will still show up at hospitals, who must provide emergency care even if they won’t get reimbursed.

Compounding the problem is the expiration of the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium subsidies, which Republicans in Congress opted not to extend despite heavy pressure from Democrats. Some 2 million fewer people are expected to be insured this year, according to the CBO.

In addition, the “big, beautiful bill” curtailed states’ ability to levy taxes on health care providers, which help states fund their share of Medicaid, and to offer special payments to beef up the reimbursement rates for hospitals and other providers, among other uses. These provider taxes and state-directed payments also boost federal Medicaid funding that states receive.

“Our health care system was already fragile and now the largest cuts in health care history are going to disintegrate it further,” said Vaishu Jawahar, director of policy programs at Protect Our Care, a left-leaning advocacy group.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the conservative-leaning American Action Forum, argued that “there’s nothing that says Medicaid always has to look like the original program,” and said Republicans want less systemic dependence on it.

“Republicans have always viewed Medicaid as a targeted, low-income safety net program for health insurance for those who cannot get it on their own,” he said. “Democrats have taken the view that Medicaid is just another program, another way to get to universal coverage. Expand wherever you can, do what you have to. And so this just represents the collision of those views.”

The package also created a $50 billion Rural Health Transformation Program, which is intended to prompt states and their rural providers to enact lasting changes that will put them on a more sustainable financial path. While some providers say the program will be beneficial, others say it won’t do much to help them contend with the major funding holes the bill will create.

And the rural fund doesn’t do anything to help urban hospitals. Nearly 100 of these hospitals that are financially distressed and disproportionately provide care to Medicaid enrollees are most at risk of shutting down or limiting services because of the bill, according to a November analysis by Harvard’s TH Chan School of Public Health.

Although many of the bill’s main Medicaid provisions don’t start kicking in until the next year or two, some hospitals and other providers are beginning to take steps now to blunt the impact of the coming cuts.

St. Mary’s Sacred Heart Hospital in rural Lavonia, Georgia, closed its labor and delivery unit, as well as its obstetrics and gynecology center, last fall. Expectant mothers now must drive about 30 minutes to the nearest hospital with labor and delivery services or about an hour to St. Mary’s hospital in Athens, which still operates a maternity ward.

St. Mary’s said in a statement that it spent 18 months trying to recruit more doctors, create partnerships and pursue other funding as it contended with an aging population and a declining number of births. But the bill played a role.

“Recent Congressional cuts to Medicaid solidified this decision,” the hospital said.

Maternal care is already strained in Georgia, said Whitney Griggs, director of health policy at Georgians for a Healthy Future, an advocacy group. The state has maternal and infant mortality rates that are much higher than the national average, and only 36% of counties had a labor and delivery unit in 2022.

Losing a labor and delivery unit is a “huge loss” to the women in the area, she said

Sen. Jon Ossoff, the lone Democrat running for reelection this year in a state Trump won in 2024, has pointed to St. Mary’s decision on the campaign trial.

“In Lavonia, St. Mary’s Hospital, they’ve announced they will no longer provide obstetric services to delivering mothers because of decisions made by politicians,” Ossoff said in Atlanta last September.

In Georgia promoting the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” last August, Vice President JD Vance slammed Ossoff’s opposition to the legislation, saying he was “allegedly worried about people getting kicked off their health care.”

“Well, you know what? The President of the United States made a promise, a sacred promise that the only people who are going to lose access to health care are illegal aliens who shouldn’t be in this country to begin with,” Vance said.

The GOP package also contributed to MercyOne, which has 21 medical centers and multiple clinics across urban and rural Iowa, deciding to close its clinic in Ottumwa and lay off dozens of staffers.

MercyOne is part of Trinity Health, which said in a statement to CNN that “the recent and future government funding policy changes” are expected to reduce its annual revenue by $1.5 billion.

That is forcing it to make changes “to ensure long-term sustainability and future growth,” including cutting positions in its billing and collections department by 10.5% across Trinity Health.

Retired Dr. Peter Reiter, who spent four decades serving patients in Ottumwa, reacted to the closure of the MercyOne clinic there, saying that “this is not the way that’s best for patients and not the best for providers.”

“The number of people who were former patients or just acquaintances who said, I go to MercyOne. What am I supposed to do? Where do I go? How do I get a doctor? And I don’t have an answer,” he said.

Julie Lawrence, an Ottumwa resident and a patient impacted by the MercyOne closure, shared her frustration with the disruptions.

“You know, I’m in the elderly category,” she said. “I’m 68, and I would just like to stay in my hometown. So, you know, if you don’t feel good, you don’t want to have to drive half an hour. I mean, I can, but I don’t really want to.”

Like St. Mary’s in Georgia, the MercyOne closures in Iowa are playing out in competitive midterms contests, with affected locations in the battleground 3rd district.

GOP Rep. Zach Nunn is seeking reelection there after winning in 2024 by just under 4 points, and his leading Democratic challenger, Sarah Trone Garriott, has focused her criticism on his vote for the “One, Big Beautiful Bill Act” and its changes to Medicaid.

“It’s a bad time for health care here in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, and it’s Zach Nunn’s fault,” Trone Garriott said in a social media video. “First MercyOne announced they were closing their Ottumwa clinic because of federal Medicaid cuts. Now MercyOne Des Moines is announcing layoffs this March, because again, federal Medicaid cuts.”

This month, Nunn wrote on his House blog that he met with patients and providers at Ottumwa Regional Health Center “to hear directly from those on the front lines,” touting $209 million allocated to his state through the OBBBA’s $50 billion “Rural Health Transformation Fund.”

“The message was clear and consistent: workforce shortages are stretching staff thin, operating costs continue to climb, and rural hospitals can’t keep carrying the burden alone,” he said.

And amid the backlash to his vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Nunn broke with his party last month on a vote to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act despite his vocal criticism of the program.

Ed Shanshala, CEO of Ammonoosuc Community Health Services in New Hampshire, had to make the painful decision to shut down its location in Franconia, which served nearly 1,600 patients in the rural White Mountains, last fall.

Ammonoosuc, which has four remaining centers that provide primary care, behavioral health and other medical services to 26 towns, is facing a $500,000 annual loss in revenue from the bill, mainly because fewer of its patients are expected to have Medicaid coverage due to the new work requirements. As a federally qualified health center, it will continue to provide care, but it won’t know how much the patients will be able to pay.

The closing of the Franconia site is only the first step to dealing with the effects of the legislation, Shanshala said. The move provides about $250,000 in one-time savings since Ammonoosuc shifted the eight staffers to other locations.

“It buys time for us to look at other revenue opportunities consistent with our mission, but it won’t come close to addressing the impact of the bill’s disinvestment in our friends, family and neighbors through Medicaid,” he said.

After states began expanding Medicaid to more low-income adults under the Affordable Care Act in 2014, the uninsured rate fell, which led to a decline in hospitals’ uncompensated care costs in those states, said Cindy Mann, a partner at Manatt Health and former Obama administration official.

“When the uninsured rate goes up, you’ll have more uncompensated care and you’ll see it pretty quickly,” she said. “If you have a patient base which is mostly Medicaid, Medicare and the uninsured — which is really a lot of the safety net hospitals — there’s nowhere to go to, there’s no cushion, there’s no cost shift that can make that up.”

In Maine, Northern Light Health’s executives knew they had to factor into their multi-year plan the increased financial pressures that the “big, beautiful bill” would bring. The health system, which operates nine hospitals, a medical group, nursing homes and several dozen primary care locations in the state, is projecting a $27 million annual drop in revenue from the package, said chief financial officer James Rohrbaugh. That’s largely because 34,000 Mainers are expected to lose Medicaid coverage later this year and next.

The looming revenue decline led Northern Light Health to make some major moves last year, including significantly cutting staff, improving its payment collection and consolidating doctors’ offices. It also closed one of its money-losing hospitals, though Rohrbaugh said that decision predated the legislation.

Now, the health system is looking for other ways to become more fiscally sound – and it hopes to use some of the $190 million that Maine is receiving from the Rural Transformation Health Program this year to help it do so. Among its plans are to increase its use of telehealth to expand its ability to care for rural residents and to hire more financial counselors to more proactively aid patients with applying for coverage – including navigating Medicaid’s new work requirements — or finding alternative payment assistance, Rohrbaugh said.

“I see that as a big opportunity,” he said of the program. “The plan for the rural transformation funds is to help figure out how to make sure health care is sustainable in rural areas.”

Going forward, more hospitals and providers will have to contend with shrinking reimbursements and higher uncompensated care costs as the provisions of the “big, beautiful bill” start to take effect.

“They will have to determine whether they can continue offering all their current services or have to shutter some or shift them to other providers,” said Lucas Swanepoel, vice president for public policy at the Catholic Health Association, which represents Catholic hospitals, long-term care facilities and other providers.

“The coming year or two will be really telling,” he said.

Jennifer Mendrzycki is the CEO of TMC Health, which based out of Tucson oversees four hospitals located throughout southern Arizona, in addition to dozens of other smaller locations covering the state’s large rural expanse.

“This is a time like we have not seen in health care before, where we’ve got competing pressures,” she said, discussing the impacts of the sweeping legislation. “We’ve always had competing pressures, but this is more acute than I have seen it in my career.”

Mendrzycki emphasized the difficulty of simultaneously contending with Medicaid cuts and reductions in provider taxes. “It’s totally untenable, and it’s – we’ve never, I don’t think, had a time like this, in at least the time that I have been in healthcare, where both of those things are coming. It’s like the perfect storm,” she said.

It’s an issue for a series of high-stakes races across all these states that could help decide control of Congress this fall.

In New Hampshire, the parties are vying for the open seat left by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in a state that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried by less than 3 full points in 2024. And in Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in what’s expected to be one of the most competitive 2026 races, already drawing tens of millions of dollars in ad spending reservations.

Both states have older, rural populations disproportionately exposed to the changes to Medicaid and the pressure on local providers. Holtz-Eakin said Republicans, and Collins especially, should point to the Rural Transformation Fund, though he acknowledged its limitations.

“The Rural Health Transformation Fund is there because of her,” he said, touting her legislative efforts. “So certainly she’s going to talk about that.”

“There’s an enormous amount of discretion by (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz) in allocating – so there’s like $10 billion you have that goes out from the total of $50 billion. And about $5 billion of that is greatly at the discretion of the CMS administrator. One would hope that that might be showing up in Maine and she could point to it and say, this is what I did for you,” he said.

特朗普访华能否成行 北京称中美就元首互动保持沟通 | 联合早报

发布/2026年3月2日 16:05

特朗普访华能否成行 北京称中美就元首互动保持沟通

美国总统特朗普（右）2月4日与中国国家主席习近平（左）通话后表明，很期待在4月访华。路透社2月20日引述白宫一名官员称，特朗普将于3月31日至4月2日访问中国。 （法新社合成图）

针对美国总统特朗普3月访华能否成行，中国外交部回应称，中美就元首互动保持着沟通。

中国外交部发言人毛宁星期一（3月2日）在例行记者会应询时说，中美就两国元首互动保持着沟通，“你的具体问题我目前没有可以提供的信息”。

美国总统特朗普2月4日与中国国家主席习近平通话后表明，很期待在4月访华。路透社2月20日引述白宫一名官员称，特朗普将于3月31日至4月2日访问中国。

彭博社星期天（3月1日）报道，特朗普政府接连推翻亲华领导人，或将为原定的中国美元峰会增添变数。

报道指出，特朗普预计将在3月31日抵京访问，双方正尝试稳定双边关系，但中国最高外交官王毅却在星期天谴责华盛顿与以色列联手向伊朗发动空袭，公然击杀一个主权国家领导人。

更为复杂的是，特朗普政府1月将亲华的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗逮捕，意味着在两个月内接连扳倒两名与北京关系友好的国家领导人。

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特朗普称有三个“非常好”的人选可以领导伊朗

发布时间 / 来源：2026年3月2日 19:56 / 联合早报

3月1日，美国总统特朗普登上空军一号，准备离开佛罗里达州返回华盛顿时向媒体示意。 （法新社）

（华盛顿综合电）美国总统特朗普说，他有三个“非常好”的人选可以领导伊朗，但没有透露他们的身份。

他星期天（3月1日）接受《纽约时报》访问时暗示，委内瑞拉模式可能也适用于伊朗，即只移除最高领导人，而政府其余大部分结构仍然保留，以扶持一个更愿与美国合作的领导层。

不过，美国许多高官质疑美以军事行动能在短期内导致伊朗政权更迭。消息人士透露，中央情报局前几周提交的评估报告指出，如果哈梅内伊被击毙，接替他的可能是伊斯兰革命卫队的强硬派人物或同样强硬的神职人员，而且革命卫队官员不太可能自愿投降。

美国高层官员也越来越不看好华府支持的伊朗反对派人物有望夺取政权。美国前情报官员帕尼科夫说：“一旦美以停止军事打击，伊朗人民上街示威，最终能否实现伊朗政权更迭取决于普通士兵是否袖手旁观、站在人民那边。”

区域官员和分析人士也警告，不要假设伊朗会迅速崩溃。他们指出，伊朗的政治秩序经过精心设计，旨在避免对单一领导人的依赖，权力分散在神职机构、安全体系和权力网络之中。

大西洋理事会中东项目研究员西特里诺维奇说：“移除哈梅内伊可能会使政权更加牢固，而不是削弱它。”这是因为面对战争和外部压力，伊朗政权或许会更紧密团结，共同面对外敌。

本地海陆空加强安检 兀兰关卡一度需150分钟通关

发布/2026年3月2日 15:24 / 黄佑解/新明日报

全球安全局势日益严峻，本地海陆空加强安检，兀兰关卡星期一（3月2日）早上交通严重拥堵，通关时间一度需要150分钟。

移民与关卡局星期六（2月28日）发文告指，有鉴于全球安全局势日益严峻，尤其是中东地区的最新进展，从即日起，在海陆空关卡加强对入境旅客、货物及交通工具的安全检查。

根据Checkpoint.sg应用的路况，星期一早上10时半许，从兀兰关卡入境我国的通关时间预计最高达150分钟，大士和兀兰关卡的桥上都可见长长车龙。

不少越堤族在脸书群组“柔新关卡Both Checkpoint分享站”指出，星期一早上兀兰交通严重拥堵，卡在车龙长达两至三小时，苦不堪言。

其中有人透露，星期一凌晨5时30分出门，岂料在从东疏大道（EDL）朝新山关卡的轿车通道中花费三小时才顺利通关，一直到星期一早上9时20分才抵达位于新加坡的公司。

根据公众提供的照片和视频可见，兀兰关卡的大桥上排满了准备入境的电单车和轿车。另一张照片显示，有不少越堤族因迟迟等不到越堤巴士，直接选择徒步过长堤。

有公众透露，自从当局宣布将加强安检，通关时间明显增加不少，甚至有人建议若非必要，暂时不通关。

公众黄先生（44岁，行政人员）受访时说，他周六去拜访友人后返回新加坡，原以为会一路通畅无阻，岂料关卡加强安检，自己一度困在车龙中。

“移民与关卡局一宣布加强安检，‘效果’立竿见影，交通就马上阻塞。我搭170回新加坡，巴士从马来西亚关卡就开始缓慢行驶，甚至堵在长堤上。后来经过关卡时，所有人都必须排队临检。”

李先生（34岁，文员）指出，上周六傍晚通关入境狮城时，明显感受到通关速度放缓，通关大厅内挤满了人。“我搭巴士入境的，在桥上也卡在车龙内。”

美驻科威特使馆促民众远离使馆区域 就近找掩护

发布时间：2026年3月2日 15:24 / 来源：联合早报

3月2日，伊朗袭击了科威特城美国大使馆所在区域，附近一条高速公路可见到乌黑浓烟升起。 （法新社）

美国驻科威特大使馆敦促民众不要前往大使馆，就近寻找掩护。

路透社报道，美国驻科威特大使馆星期一（3月2日）在网站发表声明说，鉴于科威特持续面临导弹和无人机袭击威胁，请民众不要前往大使馆，就近寻找掩护。

声明说：“科威特上空持续面临导弹和无人机袭击的威胁。请不要前往大使馆。请大家留在住所内，尽量待在最低楼层，远离窗户。不要外出。”

声明还说，美国大使馆人员正在就地避难。

一名法新社记者发现美国驻科威特大使馆院内冒出浓烟。

三艘英美油轮霍尔木兹海峡遭袭击 | 联合早报

发布/2026年3月2日 15:34

半岛电视台星期一（3月2日）引述伊朗军方消息报道，三艘英美油轮在波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡遭到袭击。

霍尔木兹海峡连接波斯湾和阿曼湾，是沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、卡塔尔、阿联酋等中东产油国的原油出口必经之路。每天约有2000万桶原油经过这里运往各地，约占全球产量的20%。

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