2026年3月11日 / 美国东部时间上午10:17 / CBS新闻
2026年2月，消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，与上月持平，且涨幅低于经济学家的预期。
美国劳工部的数据涵盖了2026年2月底伊朗战争爆发前的时期。此后，油价飙升，引发投资者对通胀的担忧。
海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗（Heather Long）在电子邮件中表示：“2025年底和2026年初，通胀开始缓解，但这将是短暂的，因为伊朗战争将导致能源、食品和其他商品价格上涨。”
数据概览
金融数据公司FactSet调查的经济学家预计，上月通胀率将上升2.5%。CPI是追踪消费者日常购买的一篮子商品和服务价格随时间变化的指标。
过去三个月，通胀率平均为2.5%，而2025年8月、9月和11月的平均通胀率约为2.9%。由于政府停摆，10月的CPI报告被取消。
美国劳工统计局表示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率同比上涨2.5%，与1月持平。
食品成本涨幅超过整体通胀率，同比上涨3.1%，而外出就餐成本（即在外饮食费用）飙升3.9%。
油价上涨的影响
上月，消费者在加油站得到了喘息，汽油价格同比下跌5.6%。但鉴于伊朗战争爆发以来，每加仑汽油价格已飙升近60美分（约20%），这一进展几乎肯定会在3月被抵消。
伊朗战争引发的通胀担忧
经济学家表示，伊朗战争可能阻碍甚至扭转抑制通胀的努力，油价上涨推高了汽油成本，并可能波及经济其他领域。
德国商业银行分析师在3月10日的研究报告中称：“通胀下降的道路变得更加不明朗。”他们补充说，能源价格上涨可能会在未来几个月“导致更高的总体通胀”。
美国消费者已经在加油站感受到了影响。根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，周三美国普通汽油价格为每加仑3.58美元，高于战争前的约3美元。
尽管油价在达到每桶100美元以上后，过去两天有所回落，但专家表示，汽油价格不太可能降至战争开始前的水平。GasBuddy的石油专家帕特里克·德汉（Patrick De Haan）表示，部分原因是季节性因素导致温暖月份汽油价格上涨。
德汉称，汽油价格可能在每加仑3.55至3.65美元之间停滞，然后在未来一个月逐渐降至约3.25美元。
油价上涨对美国经济和消费者的影响远超加油站。
欧亚集团创始人伊恩·布雷默（Ian Bremmer）表示：“这将对美国人在未来几个月感受到的一系列商品产生连锁反应。”
他补充说，霍尔木兹海峡也是化肥和其他农业投入品的关键通道，根据其关闭时间的长短，美国食品价格也可能开始上涨。
专家观点
Vital Knowledge负责人亚当·克里萨福利（Adam Crisafulli）表示，鉴于3月油价飙升带来的通胀压力，2月的通胀数据可能不会引起投资者太多关注。
他说：“人们将等待油价如何影响未来几个月的通胀读数。”投资者将关注能源价格上涨是否会蔓延到其他类别，如塑料（一种石油衍生产品）。
伊朗战争带来的通胀压力也可能改变美联储关于下次降息时机的考量。分析师称，市场目前最早预期美联储将在7月或9月再次降息。
美联储将于3月18日做出下一次降息决定。
北光资产管理公司首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利（Chris Zaccarelli）在电子邮件中表示：“普遍认为——我们也同意——美联储现在将保持观望态度，等待通胀预期是否上升并根深蒂固，或者一切是否会回到中东军事行动前的水平。”
美联储的任务是在保持充分就业的同时将通胀维持在低位。上月的就业报告显示，美国经济失去了92,000个工作岗位，这可能为降息提供更多理由。
然而，降息可能会在汽油和油价上涨的基础上，加剧通胀压力。
摩根士丹利财富管理首席经济策略师艾伦·岑特纳（Ellen Zentner）在电子邮件中表示，油价上涨的风险“意味着美联储将对降息保持谨慎”。
编辑：艾米·皮奇（Aimee Picchi）
梅根·塞鲁洛（Megan Cerullo）对本报告有贡献
Inflation held steady in February before Iran war drove up gas prices, CPI report shows
March 11, 2026 / 10:17 AM EDT / CBS News
The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.4% in February, unchanged from the prior month and representing a cooler pace than economists had forecast.
The Labor Department data captures the period before the Iran war broke out in late February. Since then, oil prices have surged, driving inflation concerns among investors.
“Inflation was starting to ease in late 2025 and early 2026, but that will be short-lived as the war in Iran triggers price increases for energy, food and other items,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email.
By the numbers
Inflation was forecast to rise 2.5% last month, according to economists polled by financial data firm FactSet. The CPI, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks changes in those prices over time.
Inflation has averaged 2.5% over the last three months, compared with about 2.9% in August, September and November. October’s CPI report was canceled because of the government shutdown.
So-called core inflation, a measure of CPI that excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% on an annual basis. That’s unchanged from January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Food costs rose faster than overall inflation, rising 3.1% on an annual basis, while food away from home — or the cost of eating out — jumped 3.9%.
Consumers got a break at the pump last month, with gasoline tumbling 5.6% on an annual basis. But that progress is all but sure to be erased in March, given that gas prices have surged by almost 60 cents per gallon, or about 20%, since the outbreak of the Iran war.
Iran-driven inflation fears
The Iran war threatens to stall or even reverse progress in taming inflation, with rising oil prices pushing up gasoline costs and potentially spilling over into other parts of the economy, economists say.
“The path towards disinflation has become murkier,” said Deutsche Bank analysts in a March 10 research note. Higher energy prices could “lead to higher headline inflation” in the coming months, they added.
U.S. consumers are already feeling the effects at the gas pump. On Wednesday, the average cost for gasoline in the U.S. stood at $3.58 per gallon, up from about $3 per gallon before the war, according to data from AAA.
While oil prices have receded in the last two days after reaching above $100 per barrel, experts say gas prices are unlikely to drop to the levels they were at before the war began. That’s partly due to seasonal factors that cause gas prices to rise in warmer months, according to Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy.
Gas prices may stall at $3.55 to $3.65 before gradually dipping to around $3.25 over the next month, De Haan said.
The rising cost of oil has broader implications for the U.S. economy and consumers beyond the gas pump.
“It will have knock-on effects on a whole range of goods that Americans will feel in the coming months,” said Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm.
The Strait of Hormuz is also a key conduit for fertilizer and other agricultural industry inputs, and depending on how long it remains effectively closed, food prices in the U.S. could start to rise, too, Bremmer added.
What the experts say
February’s inflation data isn’t likely to draw much investor focus, given the inflation pressures emerging in March with surging oil prices, said Adam Crisafulli, the head of Vital Knowledge.
“People are going to be waiting to see how oil impacts inflation readings over the coming months,” he said, adding that investors will be monitoring how the rise in energy prices potentially bleeds into other categories like plastics, which is a petroleum-derived product.
The inflationary pressures from the Iran war could also change the calculus for the Federal Reserve as it weighs when to next cut interest rates. Markets are now pricing in another rate cut in July or September at the earliest, analysts say.
The Fed will make its next rate cut decision on March 18.
“It is generally assumed — and we agree — that the Fed is going to be on hold for longer now, as they wait to see if inflation expectations rise and become embedded, or if everything will go back to where it was prior to the military operations in the Middle East,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, in an email.
The central bank is tasked with keeping inflation low while fostering full employment. Last month’s employment report showed the economy lost 92,000 jobs, which could bolster the argument for rate cuts.
However, cutting interest rates could fuel more inflationary pressures, on top of rising gas and oil prices.
The risk of higher oil prices “translates into a Fed that will remain cautious about cutting interest rates,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in an email.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
Megan Cerullo contributed to this report.
