2026-04-01T10:00:57.322Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：爱德华·吴、莫莉·英格利什
发布于 2026年4月1日 美国东部时间早上6:00
贾森·兰卡斯特/CNN/盖蒂图片社/美联社图片
佛罗里达州两场特别选举的胜利进一步证明，自唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫以来，民主党在选举中的成功不仅依靠动员己方基本盘，还在于争取到了共和党人和无党派选民的支持。
根据选举官员公布的投票率数据，3月24日的两场特别选举中，登记共和党选民的投票率高于登记民主党选民。在州众议院第87选区——这个包含海湖庄园的选区最终由民主党人艾米丽·格雷戈里拿下——共和党投票率为46%，民主党为36%。在州参议院第14选区，民主党人布莱恩·内森以46%的共和党投票率和37%的民主党投票率胜出。
在两场选举中，格雷戈里和内森的得票表现均优于2024年总统大选的得票差距，且优势幅度超过了党派投票率的变化幅度。
这表明民主党此次成功并非仅依靠动员己方基本盘——一定比例的登记共和党选民和无党派选民很可能也转向了民主党候选人。
例如在包含海湖庄园的选区内，如果所有登记共和党选民都将票投给共和党候选人乔恩·马普尔斯，那么无党派选民中约有84%会支持格雷戈里，仅16%支持马普尔斯。而如果无党派选民的投票分布完全平均，那么约有13%的登记共和党选民会投票给格雷戈里。2024年，无党派选民更倾向于投票给共和党（假设两党选民的倒戈率相似）。
当被问及第14参议院选区的选举结果时，佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯周二回应称，尽管共和党选民投票率看似占优，但共和党仍输掉选举，这表明共和党人“既未能赢得无党派选民支持，自身也出现了倒戈投票”。他还提到自己与输给格雷戈里的共和党候选人简·汤姆科存在分歧。
格雷戈里和内森均表示，他们跨党派的竞选宣传聚焦于民众对生活成本上涨的担忧，这可以用一个政治流行词概括：“负担能力”。
“我确保自己不只待在民主党人的集会中，”内森告诉CNN，他还补充说自己会“去普通民众聚集的地方，那些不按党派划分的地方”。
这些地方包括Publix超市停车场，内森说选举当天他就在那里发放竞选宣传材料。
“所有人都会去杂货店，所以就是去民众所在的地方，和他们聊真正最关心的议题，”内森说。他补充道，和选民的对话“最终总会回到这样或那样的负担能力问题上”。
“存在党派议题，”他说，“但负担能力在某种程度上胜过所有其他议题。”
格雷戈里强调，她努力贴近选民。她对CNN表示，“负担能力是一个宽泛的概念”，其具体内涵因社区而异。
“具体到第87选区，这体现在财产保险、医疗保健和公立学校方面，”格雷戈里说，“我认为佐治亚州、南卡罗来纳州或新泽西州的不同社区，可能面临不同的负担能力问题，但你不能直接照搬套用。”
民主党表现的超额优势始终超过党派投票率的变化幅度
CNN分析了两场全州范围选举以及三场美国众议院特别选举的情况，这些选举所在的州均允许选民按党派登记。
在所有五场选举中，登记民主党选民的投票率相较于2024年都有所提升。且在每一场选举中，民主党实际得票相较于2024年总统大选的超额优势，都超过了党派投票率的变化幅度。
党派登记与党派认同或投票选择并不相同。例如，这些选举以及佛罗里达州州议会选举中的民主党候选人，可能获得了一贯支持民主党的登记共和党选民和无党派选民的选票。在某些情况下，最初按某一党派登记的选民之后可能会转变党派认同，而无论是党派认同还是党派登记，都不意味着选民会始终支持自己登记的政党。
尽管如此，去年4月佛罗里达州第1国会选区的特别选举中，登记共和党选民的倒戈是板上钉钉的事实。近58%的选票由登记共和党选民投出，但共和党候选人吉米·帕特里尼斯仅获得了不到57%的选票。
在新泽西州2025年州长选举中，据资深顾问杰基·伯恩斯透露，选举日前就有迹象显示，现任州长米基·谢里尔的竞选团队争取到了共和党人和无党派选民的支持。
“竞选期间一直有人走上前来跟我们说，‘我是无党派选民，我曾投票给特朗普，但我现在支持米基·谢里尔’，”她说。
伯恩斯表示，选举日前在深红州海洋县举行的一场午间活动吸引了数百人参加。尽管海洋县最终将票投给了共和党候选人杰克·恰塔雷利，但该州所有县的投票倾向在2025年都转向了民主党。
一个能同时吸引共和党人和无党派选民的本地议题，是特朗普威胁暂停对Gateway隧道项目的资助——这是一项耗资160亿美元、连接新泽西州与纽约州的通勤铁路项目。谢里尔及其盟友指责恰塔雷利未能采取足够措施反对白宫的这一决定。
伯恩斯认为，恰塔雷利的反应“确实让无党派选民和一些温和派共和党人感到沮丧，说实话，他们很愤怒——这家伙竟然不为新泽西州而战”。
CNN去年11月的出口民调也显示，民主党在说服选民方面拥有显著优势。在三场全州范围的选举中，2024年投票给特朗普的选民倒戈率高于投票给前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的选民：新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州有7%的特朗普选民将票投给了民主党州长候选人（而新泽西州仅有3%的哈里斯选民、弗吉尼亚州仅有1%的哈里斯选民将票投给了共和党候选人）。在加利福尼亚州，12%的特朗普支持者投票支持民主党支持的重划美国众议院选区的 ballot measure（5%的哈里斯选民反对该提案）。
在这三个州，2024年既未投票给特朗普也未投票给哈里斯的选民，绝大多数都转向了民主党阵营。
Not just the base: Democrats in recent elections are flipping independent and Republican votes
2026-04-01T10:00:57.322Z / CNN
By Edward Wu, Molly English
PUBLISHED Apr 1, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Photo Illustration by Jason Lancaster/CNN/Getty/AP Images
Two special election victories in Florida provided more evidence that the Democratic success in elections since Donald Trump’s return to the White House rests not just on a motivated base but also on winning over Republicans and independents.
More registered Republicans than registered Democrats voted in two special elections on March 24, according to turnout data from election officials. In state House District 87, the district including Mar-a-Lago that was flipped by Democrat Emily Gregory, voter turnout was 46% Republican to 36% Democrat. In state Senate District 14, Democrat Brian Nathan finished ahead in a race with 46% GOP turnout versus 37% Democrat.
In both races, Gregory and Nathan overperformed 2024 presidential margins by an amount larger than the shift in partisan turnout.
That suggests that Democratic success was not just from turning out their base — some combination of registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely also broke toward the Democratic candidates.
For example, in the district that included Mar-a-Lago, had all the registered Republicans voted for Jon Maples, the GOP candidate, voters not affiliated with either major party would have broken for Gregory roughly 84% to 16%. And if unaffiliated voters instead split evenly, then about 13% of registered Republicans would have voted for Gregory. In 2024, unaffiliated voters were more likely to vote for Republicans (assuming similar defection rates among the two parties).
When asked about the results in Senate District 14, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis responded Tuesday that the Republican loss despite an apparent GOP turnout advantage suggested both poor performance with independents and that “Republicans are voting the other way.” He also noted his differences with Jane Tomkow, the Republican who lost to Gregory.
Both Gregory and Nathan said their outreach across party lines focused on concerns about rising cost of living summed up in one political buzzword: affordability.
“I made sure I wasn’t staying in just Democratic rooms,” Nathan told CNN, adding that he went “where the regular people go, where they’re not divided up by party lines.”
Those places included a Publix parking lot, where Nathan said he stood outside and handed out campaign literature on Election Day.
“Everybody goes to the grocery store, so it was just finding people where they’re at and then talking to them about the issues that are actually top of mind for them,” Nathan said. He added that his conversations with voters “always came back to affordability in one form or another.”
“There are partisan issues,” he said, “but affordability kind of trumps them all.”
Gregory emphasized that she tried to meet voters where they were. She told CNN that “affordability is a broad term” and what that means varies by community.
“Specifically in District 87, that looks like property insurance, that looks like health care, and that looks like public schools,” Gregory said. “I think a different community in Georgia or South Carolina or New Jersey, they may have affordability issues, but you can’t just copy-paste.”
Democratic overperformance has consistently outpaced change in partisan turnout
CNN examined the two statewide races and three special elections for US House held in states where voters can register with a party.
In all five races, registered Democrats improved their turnout relative to 2024. And in each case, Democratic overperformance in actual votes relative to the 2024 presidential race also exceeded the shift in partisan turnout.
Party registration is not the same as party identification or vote choice. It’s possible that the Democratic candidates in these and the Florida state legislature races received votes from registered Republicans and independent voters who are consistent Democratic voters, for example. In some cases, voters who initially register with one party may later identify with another, and neither party identification nor registration means a voter always sides with their chosen party.
Still, defections among registered Republicans were a mathematical certainty in the special election in Florida’s 1st Congressional District last April. Nearly 58% of ballots were cast by registered Republicans, yet Republican candidate Jimmy Patronis received just under 57% of the vote.
In New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, there were signs before Election Day that now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign was reaching Republicans and independents, according to Jackie Burns, a senior adviser.
“We had people coming up to us all the time on the campaign trail that said, ‘I’m an independent. I voted for Trump, but I’m backing Mikie Sherrill,’” she said.
A midday event in bright-red Ocean County just before Election Day garnered hundreds of people, according to Burns. Although Ocean County ultimately voted for Republican Jack Ciattarelli, every county in the state shifted toward Democrats in 2025.
A local issue that spoke to Republicans and independents across the board was the threat by Trump to halt funding to the Gateway Tunnel, a $16 billion commuter rail project between New Jersey and New York. Sherrill and her allies accused Ciattarelli of not doing enough to push back against the White House.
Burns argued that Ciattarelli’s reaction “really frustrated and, quite frankly, angered independents and some moderate Republicans that this guy was not going to fight for New Jersey.”
CNN’s exit polls from last November also found a considerable Democratic advantage in persuasion. In three statewide races, defections were higher among Trump 2024 voters than voters for former Vice President Kamala Harris: Seven percent of Trump voters voted for the Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia (compared with 3% of Harris voters in New Jersey and 1% in Virginia who backed the Republican candidates). In California, 12% of Trump supporters voted for the Democratic-backed ballot measure to redraw US House districts (5% of Harris voters opposed the measure).
In all three states, voters who supported neither Trump nor Harris in 2024 broke heavily for the Democratic side.