Analysis by

Brett H. McGurk

2 hr ago

PUBLISHED Apr 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET

The Middle East Donald Trump JD Vance Asia

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A woman walks past buildings left in ruins from US-Israeli airstrikes in southern Tehran, Iran, on April 4.

Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

Brett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

After six weeks of war, the United States and Iran are now planning the most senior meeting between the two countries since the Islamic Republic of Iran was founded in 1979. Led by Vice President JD Vance on the US side and Parliament Speaker Mohammed Ghalibaf on the Iranian side, the talks mark a mind-boggling turn of events now two months into this crisis.

The only precedent for cabinet-level engagement between Washington and Tehran was the negotiations in President Barack Obama’s second term, when Secretary of State John Kerry met regularly with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Those talks lasted well over a year. Before and after each round at their level, teams of experts on both sides spent weeks and months in Switzerland or Vienna hammering out the details of a nuclear pact.

The lead up to these talks has been different. There appears to have been little diplomatic legwork in preparation. The agenda is not entirely clear.

President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire to set the frame for the talks — but since then, the ceasefire has proven fragile at best and Trump’s precondition of a “complete, immediate, and safe” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has not been met.

Iran claims the ceasefire must include Lebanon, where it supports Hezbollah. Vance has said that’s a misunderstanding.

Related article A deal or a mirage? Trump’s Iran ceasefire collides with chaos on the ground 13 min read

As a former diplomat who has negotiated with Iran — sometimes succeeding and other times failing — I am extremely wary of such a high-level meeting absent some sign that the two sides are narrowing differences. There is no sign of that at all.

Iran will approach these meetings pretending it’s the power at the table. That’s what they do. But the boastfulness conceals a country that has just been hammered militarily, is in shambles economically and that does not have the support of its own people.

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Brett McGurk on the Iran ceasefire: ‘fragile is an understatement’

5:53 • Source: CNN

Brett McGurk on the Iran ceasefire: ‘fragile is an understatement’

5:53

So what can we expect? In terms of outcomes, not much. Talks with Iran, in the best case scenario, are time consuming and complex. There will be no breakthroughs in Islamabad. In terms of symbolism and positioning however, the stakes are high. That’s where I’m focused.

Let’s consider the downside potential for these talks, followed by the upside potential.

Downside: Legitimizing a new status quo that favors Iran

From the US vantage point, Iran’s military industrial base has been massively degraded, with its ability to produce missiles and drones set back years together with its nuclear program. Iran’s leadership losses may degrade internal cohesion and reduce its ability to effectively project power outside its borders, including through proxies and terrorist groups — as it’s done for years.

Vessels and boats are off the coast of Musandam governorate, overlooking the strait of Hormuz, in Musandam governance, in Oman on Wednesday.

Reuters

From Iran’s vantage point, its losses are survivable, and it has retained strategic advantage in its favor through control — for the first time — of the Strait of Hormuz. This has always been a presumed card in Iran’s pocket, and in playing it, they have proven they can hold the global economy hostage. As a deterrent, that might be even greater than the nuclear weapon Iran has, in the past, pursued.

For the vice president to meet publicly with Iran’s new leadership as Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz carries significant risk. For Iran, the meeting itself is the goal — and the United States will have legitimized its new strategic position.

Upside: Breaking Iran’s diplomatic taboo with the Great Satan

The reason no meeting like this has ever happened is not because the US refused to meet. Obama and even Trump in his first term were prepared to meet with Iran’s president. But Iran has rejected any such face-to-face engagement. The Iranian system has portrayed itself as standing apart and above the “Great Satan” with no need for such direct diplomacy, as it has pursued an agenda with violence to ultimately eject the US from the Middle East altogether.

The meeting with Vance, so soon after new leaders came to power, would smash a precedent that Iran has imposed since the earliest days of its Islamic Revolution. The advantage in this new equation — if the US holds firm in its negotiating positions — may disfavor Iran. The model here would be Ronald Reagan meeting with the president of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev. Reagan held firm in his demands and ultimately tipped dominos that led to the end of the USSR.

People gather under a large portrait of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Thursday in Tehran, Iran, during a memorial to mark the 40th day since his father was killed in US-Israeli strikes.

Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

The Iranian people — thousands of whom were massacred earlier this year for demanding a change to Iran’s government — might be dismayed by the imagery of Vance meeting with Ghalibaf, a consummate hardliner and former police chief. That’s understandable. It makes me uneasy, as well. But there’s a chance that by breaking Iran’s taboo, the US increases internal fissures within the new leadership’s structure.

After all, Trump this year shattered a second taboo that has long defined US relations with Iran: Using military force inside the borders of Iran itself. Iran’s leaders had long thought the US was deterred from such strikes, due in part to its threats to Hormuz. They now know, Trump was not.

Increasing the upside scenario

Presuming these meetings take place over the coming days, the best approach for Vance is the Reagan model. That means extending an open hand but making clear that unless US demands are met — particularly on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear enrichment and stockpiles — that Iran will continue to face extreme economic pressure through sanctions and a threat of US military force.

Iran will aim to use the one card it now has: the Strait of Hormuz. But it may overreach as US military forces remain positioned nearby and on the ready if diplomacy fails. Trump just yesterday said Iran’s ongoing control of the Strait “is not the agreement we have!”

In this historic meeting, the vice president will have a stronger hand — and he should use it.

The Middle East Donald Trump JD Vance Asia

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日本外长茂木敏充星期五（4月10日）在内阁会议上发布主要总结2025年外交与国际局势的2026年版《外交蓝皮书》。 （法新社）

日本最新版《外交蓝皮书》将当前国际形势定性为“历史性巨变时期”。蓝皮书呼吁美国和以色列与伊朗停火，以恢复地区和平稳定，从而保障能源安全。同时，面对地缘政治风险上升，日本计划加强日美同盟，并扩大与各国的合作。

鉴于日本首相高市早苗去年11月在国会发表“台湾有事，日本有事”的涉台言论遭到中方的反制措施，蓝皮书将对中日关系的措辞，从去年的“最重要的双边关系之一”降级为“重要邻国”。但蓝皮书仍强调，日本对话大门敞开，中日有必要致力于发展“战略互利关系”，在共同利益领域开展合作。

日本外长茂木敏充星期五（4月10日）发表《2026年外交蓝皮书》。蓝皮书重申“自由开放的印度太平洋”框架是日本重要的外交基石，强调维护自由和法治、尊重多样性的理念。框架提出至今已满10年，随着外部风险和时代发生变化，日本今年将对框架进行战略性调整，并强调与志同道合国家合作落实这一框架的重要性。

批伊朗发展核武器行为“绝对不可接受”

关于国际形势，蓝皮书列举俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、中国的军事行动以及朝鲜的核武器和导弹发展，指出“后冷战时期相对稳定的时代已经结束”。

蓝皮书还提及美以对伊朗的打击，批评伊朗发展核武器的行为“绝对不可接受”，并谴责伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡及周边地区民用船只的行为。

蓝皮书呼吁相关方尽一切外交努力，尽快控制局势。值得注意的是，报告避开对美方行动进行法律评估，这体现出日本对盟友美国的顾虑。

关于中日关系，蓝皮书批评中国“自去年11月以来加大了对日单方面批评和胁迫措施的力度”。报告对中国限制军民两用物项出口日本、中国军机与日本自卫队飞机发生雷达照射事件，以及中国驻大阪总领事薛剑在社媒上针对高市的“斩首”言论表示不满。此外，报告也对中方重提《联合国宪章》“前敌国条款”表示关切。

蓝皮书强调，日本将“坚决驳斥并抗议中国与事实不符的言论和胁迫措施”，并指出日本“已在外交场合阐明了自身的立场和观点，并获得了国际社会的理解”。

中国外交部发言人毛宁同日在北京记者会上回答日本放送协会（NHK）记者提问时，就蓝皮书内容进行批评。她指出，中日关系当前局面的根源在于高市发表涉台谬论，损害中日关系的政治基础，挑战战后国际秩序。日方应当恪守中日四个政治文件和自身所作承诺，反思纠错，以实际行动维护中日关系的政治基础。

称韩国为“重要邻国” 指日韩关系重要性日益凸显

对于韩国，蓝皮书重申了去年的表述，称韩国为“日本应与之合作的重要邻国”，并指出“日韩关系的重要性日益凸显”。

不过，韩国方面就日方在蓝皮书中称“竹岛是日本固有领土”一事提出强烈抗议，韩国外交部亚太局局长金相勋当天下午召见日本驻韩国大使馆总括公使松尾裕敬，就此提出交涉。

日本外长茂木敏充星期五（4月10日）在内阁会议上发布主要总结2025年外交与国际局势的2026年版《外交蓝皮书》。 （法新社）

日本最新版《外交蓝皮书》将当前国际形势定性为“历史性巨变时期”。蓝皮书呼吁美国和以色列与伊朗停火，以恢复地区和平稳定，从而保障能源安全。同时，面对地缘政治风险上升，日本计划加强日美同盟，并扩大与各国的合作。

鉴于日本首相高市早苗去年11月在国会发表“台湾有事，日本有事”的涉台言论遭到中方的反制措施，蓝皮书将对中日关系的措辞，从去年的“最重要的双边关系之一”降级为“重要邻国”。但蓝皮书仍强调，日本对话大门敞开，中日有必要致力于发展“战略互利关系”，在共同利益领域开展合作。

日本外长茂木敏充星期五（4月10日）发表《2026年外交蓝皮书》。蓝皮书重申“自由开放的印度太平洋”框架是日本重要的外交基石，强调维护自由和法治、尊重多样性的理念。框架提出至今已满10年，随着外部风险和时代发生变化，日本今年将对框架进行战略性调整，并强调与志同道合国家合作落实这一框架的重要性。

批伊朗发展核武器行为“绝对不可接受”

关于国际形势，蓝皮书列举俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、中国的军事行动以及朝鲜的核武器和导弹发展，指出“后冷战时期相对稳定的时代已经结束”。

蓝皮书还提及美以对伊朗的打击，批评伊朗发展核武器的行为“绝对不可接受”，并谴责伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡及周边地区民用船只的行为。

蓝皮书呼吁相关方尽一切外交努力，尽快控制局势。值得注意的是，报告避开对美方行动进行法律评估，这体现出日本对盟友美国的顾虑。

关于中日关系，蓝皮书批评中国“自去年11月以来加大了对日单方面批评和胁迫措施的力度”。报告对中国限制军民两用物项出口日本、中国军机与日本自卫队飞机发生雷达照射事件，以及中国驻大阪总领事薛剑在社媒上针对高市的“斩首”言论表示不满。此外，报告也对中方重提《联合国宪章》“前敌国条款”表示关切。

蓝皮书强调，日本将“坚决驳斥并抗议中国与事实不符的言论和胁迫措施”，并指出日本“已在外交场合阐明了自身的立场和观点，并获得了国际社会的理解”。

中国外交部发言人毛宁同日在北京记者会上回答日本放送协会（NHK）记者提问时，就蓝皮书内容进行批评。她指出，中日关系当前局面的根源在于高市发表涉台谬论，损害中日关系的政治基础，挑战战后国际秩序。日方应当恪守中日四个政治文件和自身所作承诺，反思纠错，以实际行动维护中日关系的政治基础。

称韩国为“重要邻国” 指日韩关系重要性日益凸显

对于韩国，蓝皮书重申了去年的表述，称韩国为“日本应与之合作的重要邻国”，并指出“日韩关系的重要性日益凸显”。

不过，韩国方面就日方在蓝皮书中称“竹岛是日本固有领土”一事提出强烈抗议，韩国外交部亚太局局长金相勋当天下午召见日本驻韩国大使馆总括公使松尾裕敬，就此提出交涉。

The Odds: Where MAGA love lies

2026-04-10 9:54 AM EDT / CNN

By Ainsley Ehlers, CNN

CNN News Central’s John Berman and chief data analyst Harry Enten find what polling and prediction markets reveal about loyalties within MAGA amid the President’s feud with Republican heavyweights once viewed as top loyalists

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/10/politics/video/the-odds-where-maga-love-lies-cnc-kalpar

3:52 • Source: CNN

1月26日，黎巴嫩真主党领导人纳伊姆·卡西姆通过电视在贝鲁特南部郊区举行的声援伊朗的集会上发表讲话。 （路透社）

黎巴嫩真主党领导人纳伊姆·卡西姆呼吁黎巴嫩政府停止向以色列“无偿让步”。黎以两国政府将于下周在华盛顿开始谈判。

法新社报道，卡西姆（Naim Qassem）星期五（4月10日）在真主党旗下电视台“灯塔电视台”（Al-Manar TV）播出的书面声明中说：“我们绝不接受回到过去的局面，我们呼吁官员们停止无偿让步。”

卡西姆还谴责了星期三发生的“血腥罪行”，当时以色列的空袭造成黎巴嫩300多人死亡。

卡西姆说，真主党不会畏惧以色列的威胁和武器，将坚持抵抗到底。新华社引述他说，尽管战事已持续数周，但以军未能实现其宣布的地面军事目标，包括地面入侵计划。他说，以军在边境地区陷入伏击并遭受损失，大量军用车辆被毁。

卡西姆指出，以色列多次调整其战争目标，从试图向利塔尼河推进，转向依靠火力进行破坏。即便以军进行大规模军事动员，也无法实现对黎巴嫩南部的控制。

他指出，以方无法阻止真主党的火箭弹、火炮和无人机，相关打击范围已覆盖包括以色列北部城市海法在内的更广阔地区。

卡西姆说，以色列8日在黎巴嫩各地针对平民实施袭击，企图以此掩盖其在地面军事行动的失败。

1月26日，黎巴嫩真主党领导人纳伊姆·卡西姆通过电视在贝鲁特南部郊区举行的声援伊朗的集会上发表讲话。 （路透社）

黎巴嫩真主党领导人纳伊姆·卡西姆呼吁黎巴嫩政府停止向以色列“无偿让步”。黎以两国政府将于下周在华盛顿开始谈判。

法新社报道，卡西姆（Naim Qassem）星期五（4月10日）在真主党旗下电视台“灯塔电视台”（Al-Manar TV）播出的书面声明中说：“我们绝不接受回到过去的局面，我们呼吁官员们停止无偿让步。”

卡西姆还谴责了星期三发生的“血腥罪行”，当时以色列的空袭造成黎巴嫩300多人死亡。

卡西姆说，真主党不会畏惧以色列的威胁和武器，将坚持抵抗到底。新华社引述他说，尽管战事已持续数周，但以军未能实现其宣布的地面军事目标，包括地面入侵计划。他说，以军在边境地区陷入伏击并遭受损失，大量军用车辆被毁。

卡西姆指出，以色列多次调整其战争目标，从试图向利塔尼河推进，转向依靠火力进行破坏。即便以军进行大规模军事动员，也无法实现对黎巴嫩南部的控制。

他指出，以方无法阻止真主党的火箭弹、火炮和无人机，相关打击范围已覆盖包括以色列北部城市海法在内的更广阔地区。

卡西姆说，以色列8日在黎巴嫩各地针对平民实施袭击，企图以此掩盖其在地面军事行动的失败。

Justice Dept. argues D.C. pipe bomb defendant not covered by Trump’s Jan. 6 pardons

April 10, 2026 / 12:00 PM EDT / CBS News

By Jacob Rosen

The Justice Department pushed back on claims by the man accused of planting pipe bombs outside of the Republican and Democratic National Committee headquarters on the eve of the 2021 Jan. 6 Capitol riot, arguing that the charges against Brian Cole Jr. should not be dismissed and that his actions were not covered by President Trump’s sweeping pardons of the Jan. 6 rioters.

In court filings Friday, the Justice Department opposed a motion by Cole, whose legal team argued that the charges against Cole are “inextricably and demonstrably tethered” to the events of Jan. 6, 2021 and should be dismissed.

In March, Cole’s lawyers pointed to filings by federal prosecutors in the case that said Cole had told the FBI in an interview after his arrest that he had traveled to Washington, D.C., to attend a 2020 election-related protest connected to “the same political controversy” that animated the Jan. 6 crowd.

Cole’s attorneys argued that even though the pipe bombs had been planted the night before the riot, Mr. Trump’s pardon of all Jan. 6 defendants applies to him, too.

The Justice Department says the pardon explicitly does not cover Cole’s alleged conduct.

Prosecutors wrote that the president’s proclamation expressly limited relief to individuals who had been “convicted of,” or had a “pending indictment” for offenses related to the events at or near the United States Capitol on Jan. 6.

“On January 20, 2025, the defendant belonged to neither category, and so the proclamation has no bearing on this case,” the Justice Department wrote.

Prosecutors said Cole’s Jan. 5 offenses “were not, as the proclamation required, ‘related to’ events at or near the United States Capitol ‘on January 6.’”

They wrote that even if the president’s proclamation “somehow could apply to this case,” the Justice Department’s opposing position “is entitled to deference as a reasonable interpretation taken by the Executive Branch agency expressly charged with administering the proclamation.”

The Justice Department added that when Mr. Trump issued the pardons on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025, “law enforcement had not identified the defendant, much less charged or convicted him, and the pipe bombs investigation proceeded unabated.”

Cole was charged last year with interstate transportation of explosives and malicious attempt to use explosives, almost five years after the bombs were planted. The bombs did not detonate, but the FBI has said that they were viable.

Mr. Trump’s Jan. 6 pardons, issued in the first hours of his return to the White House last year, granted relief to around 1,500 riot defendants accused of violations ranging from trespassing to assaulting police. The president wiped away criminal convictions for all but 14 of those who were convicted of Jan. 6-related offenses, and directed the Justice Department to seek to dismiss charges against those who had not yet been convicted.

The order says the pardons apply to “offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021.”

Cole’s lawyers argued that the phrase “related to” could apply to offenses that did not take place on Jan. 6, 2021, as long as they were linked to the events of that day.

The Justice Department said that in Cole’s FBI interview, he told the agents questioning him that he planted the bombs and said he “did not attend a protest at the United States Capitol on January 5 but rather traveled to D.C. to plant the bombs.”

“The defendant told the agents that “something just snapped” after “watching everything, just everything getting worse,” the Justice Department said. “The defendant wanted to do something ‘to the parties’ because ‘they were in charge,’ and he did not like either party.”

Prosecutors said Cole “expressly denied that his actions were directed toward the United States Congress or related to the proceedings scheduled to take place on January 6.”

U.S. District Judge Amir Ali has not scheduled a hearing to hear Cole’s legal team’s motion as of Friday, but a status hearing is scheduled for April 21.

伊朗：黎巴嫩停火与解冻资产 是伊美谈判先决条件

2026年4月10日 23:50 / 联合早报

伊朗强调，黎巴嫩停火及解冻海外资产是与美国展开谈判的前提，并称各方已同意以伊方“十点方案”为谈判基础。 （路透社档案照片）

伊朗强调，黎巴嫩停火及解冻海外资产是与美国展开谈判的前提，并称各方已同意以伊方“十点方案”为谈判基础。 （路透社档案照片）

伊朗议会议长加利巴夫说，在黎巴嫩停火和将冻结的伊朗资产解冻是伊朗与美国展开谈判的先决条件。

加利巴夫（Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf）星期五（4月10日）在社交媒体X上以英文发文称：“双方此前达成的两项共识尚未落实：一是黎巴嫩停火，二是谈判开始前释放伊朗被冻结的资产。”

“这两项事宜必须在谈判开始前得到解决。”

伊朗副外长：各方同意以十点方案为谈判基础

另据多家伊朗媒体报道，伊朗外交部副部长拉万奇说，各方已同意以伊朗提出的“十点方案”作为谈判基础。

新华社引述拉万奇说，伊朗支持外交和对话，但拒绝基于错误信息的谈判或任何可能为新一轮侵略铺平道路的进程。伊朗不希望停火让侵略者重新武装并再次发动袭击，并强调任何协议都必须包括防止敌对行动再次发生的保证。

伊朗此前向美国提出“十点方案”。方案包括：互不侵犯条约、承认伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权、接受伊朗进行铀浓缩活动、解除一级和二级制裁，以及终止联合国安理会和国际原子能机构的相关决议等。

伊朗：黎巴嫩停火与解冻资产 是伊美谈判先决条件

2026年4月10日 23:50 / 联合早报

伊朗强调，黎巴嫩停火及解冻海外资产是与美国展开谈判的前提，并称各方已同意以伊方“十点方案”为谈判基础。 （路透社档案照片）

伊朗议会议长加利巴夫说，在黎巴嫩停火和将冻结的伊朗资产解冻是伊朗与美国展开谈判的先决条件。

加利巴夫（Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf）星期五（4月10日）在社交媒体X上以英文发文称：“双方此前达成的两项共识尚未落实：一是黎巴嫩停火，二是谈判开始前释放伊朗被冻结的资产。”

“这两项事宜必须在谈判开始前得到解决。”

伊朗副外长：各方同意以十点方案为谈判基础

另据多家伊朗媒体报道，伊朗外交部副部长拉万奇说，各方已同意以伊朗提出的“十点方案”作为谈判基础。

新华社引述拉万奇说，伊朗支持外交和对话，但拒绝基于错误信息的谈判或任何可能为新一轮侵略铺平道路的进程。伊朗不希望停火让侵略者重新武装并再次发动袭击，并强调任何协议都必须包括防止敌对行动再次发生的保证。

伊朗此前向美国提出“十点方案”。方案包括：互不侵犯条约、承认伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权、接受伊朗进行铀浓缩活动、解除一级和二级制裁，以及终止联合国安理会和国际原子能机构的相关决议等。

US pushes to renew ties with Peru ahead of uncertain election

April 10, 2026 10:05 AM UTC / Reuters

By Lucinda Elliott and Marco Aquino

April 10, 2026 10:05 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago

节点运行失败

[1/6]Members of indigenous communities camp on the property of Chinese-owned Las Bambas copper mine, in Las Bambas, Peru April 26, 2022. REUTERS/Angela Ponce/File Photo

• Summary
• Companies

• Chinese trade more than twice US flows, megaport sparks concern
• Washington pushing cooperation on defense, critical minerals
• Over 30 candidates running in Sunday presidential vote

LIMA, April 10 (Reuters) – As Peru heads into the first round of its presidential election on Sunday, Washington is mounting its most assertive push in years to shore up influence in the major copper producer that has become a key strategic partner for China, according ​to business leaders and senior officials.

The outreach led by newly appointed U.S. ambassador Bernie Navarro marks a shift after a decade in which China overtook the United States as Peru’s ‌dominant trade partner, particularly in mining and infrastructure.

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The upcoming election – in which over 30 candidates are competing for the presidency, with no clear frontrunner – could offer Washington a new chance to rebuild ties as it seeks to safeguard access to critical minerals and push back on growing Chinese influence in South America.

“The relationship with the U.S. is really strengthening,” said Felipe James, head of Peru’s manufacturing industry chamber, who met with Navarro in February to open a working group to boost trade and investment.

In January, the ​White House designated Peru a major non-NATO ally, a move that would deepen defense cooperation and expand access to trade and security programs. The next day, the State Department approved an equipment package to ​help modernize a naval base near the port of Callao.

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Peruvian officials joined U.S. President Donald Trump and his closest regional allies in Florida last month to launch ⁠a new coalition to fight Latin American drug cartels. And U.S. company Lockheed Martin LMT.N is competing with firms from Sweden and France to sell Peru fighter jets.

Navarro’s engagement with Peruvian stakeholders reflected Trump’s “commitment to strengthening the U.S.-Peru ​partnership on shared priorities including economic growth and security cooperation,” a State Department spokesperson said.

SECURITY CONCERNS

Peru is the world’s third-largest copper producer and a major supplier of other critical minerals used in semiconductors, defense systems and renewable ​technologies. Its trade with China hit a record $50 billion last year, eclipsing the roughly $19 billion traded with the United States.

Rather than trade volumes, Washington has been stressing the transparency and reliability of U.S. firms working in Peru, executives say, while Ambassador Navarro has urged leaders in Lima to rein in judicial risks and tackle concerns about public security at a time of surging organized crime.

“He has clearly called for legal certainty and stronger public security to attract investment,” said Julia Torreblanca, head of mining ​and energy association SNMPE and vice president of corporate affairs at Cerro Verde, a copper producer run by Freeport-McMoRan FCX.N.

Navarro has also flagged Peru’s recent political volatility as a growing concern for the business environment. The country ​has had eight presidents since 2018.

“The United States will never interfere in Peruvians’ right to self-determination, but stability is needed,” he told local radio station RPP last month.

The U.S. Embassy declined to make Navarro available for an interview.

With Peruvian presidents ‌often more occupied ⁠with surviving regular impeachment attempts than building a consistent geopolitical strategy, analysts said the economic heft of China’s trade relationship has outweighed historic U.S. ties.

“There’s a correlation between those last ten years of political instability and more Chinese investments being able to trickle to Peru,” said Martin Cassinelli of the Atlantic Council.

TRADING PLACES

The renewed push from Washington comes as Peru has opened itself as a gateway for Chinese trade with South America.

The Chinese-built Chancay megaport north of Lima, operated by Cosco Shipping 601919.SS, has cut sea journey times to Asia and is beginning to serve as a transit hub for goods such as electric vehicles bound for regional markets.

China’s trade with Peru has overtaken the United States in the past decade

The port, inaugurated in late 2024, has ​raised concerns in Washington over foreign control of strategic ​infrastructure.

Former U.S. Southern Command chief General Laura Richardson ⁠has warned it could serve as a “gateway” for Chinese military and intelligence activities in South America.

Efforts by Peruvian authorities to strengthen regulatory oversight were blocked earlier this year when a court ruled in favor of Cosco’s claim that Chancay is a private investment. The decision is under appeal.

Peru’s economic ties to China will be hard to ​unwind.

Trade imbalances have widened in recent months, with Peru slipping back into a deficit with the U.S. after a brief surplus in 2024. Officials in Lima ​are trying to lift tariffs ⁠imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which they argue violate a bilateral free trade agreement in effect since 2009.

Overall trade between Peru and China has boomed over the last decade.

“China is not leaving,” said Margaret Myers of the Inter-American Dialogue, who said U.S. efforts are likely to focus on areas that intersect with national security interests rather than attempting to displace China’s economic importance to Peru.

That will hinge on the outcome of the vote this Sunday. All the candidates are polling below 15%, making a June runoff all but certain.

Right-leaning ⁠Keiko Fujimori, educated ​in the U.S. and seen as a leading contender, has cast herself as a safer partner for Washington than rivals she links ​to Beijing, while conservative Carlos Alvarez has balanced praise for renewed U.S. engagement in Latin America with an emphasis on the value of Chinese investment.

“They say: do you want a gringo hamburger or some chifa (Chinese fusion)?” said Alvarez in an interview with Reuters.

Alvarez said he preferred ​a local specialty: fried guinea pig.

Reporting by Lucinda Elliott and Marco Aquino in Lima. Additional reporting by Beijing newsroom. Editing by Cassandra Garrison, Brad Haynes and Rosalba O’Brien

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