面临拉丁裔选民支持率下滑风险,共和党在2026年中期选举前关键参议院竞选中积极动员


2026年3月18日 / 美国东部时间上午6:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻

随着迹象显示共和党可能正在失去2024年获得的部分拉丁裔支持,基层组织正介入以在今年中期选举的关键竞选中推动共和党参议院候选人。

据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻了解,倾向保守的拉丁裔政治团体自由倡议行动(LIBRE Initiative Action)计划支持俄亥俄州共和党参议员乔恩·哈斯特德(Jon Husted)和北卡罗来纳州参议院竞选中的前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·惠特利(Michael Whately)。

这两场竞选可能对共和党是否能保持参议院控制权至关重要。民主党在提名前州长罗伊·库珀(Roy Cooper)后,将北卡罗来纳州视为最有可能拿下的席位之一。在俄亥俄州,民主党希望在该州多年共和党优势后,重新将前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)送回参议院。

拉丁裔选民在这两个州的人口中占比快速增长,成为任何竞争激烈的选举中的重要因素。自由倡议行动表示,他们计划重点强调经济问题。

“在我们看到的每一次民调中,以及我们走访的所有地方,经济始终是拉丁裔选民的首要关切,”该组织高级顾问丹尼尔·加尔萨(Daniel Garza)在周三宣布支持之前告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。

“这是拉丁裔社区的优先事项,”加尔萨继续说道,“工作、通胀、水电费——所有这些问题都很重要。我们不希望选出那些会增加税收负担、实施更多员工强制要求、限制能源生产和医疗监管的官员,因为这些措施会增加一切成本,影响拉丁裔社区。”

根据加尔萨的说法,该组织计划通过选民教育、社区参与和基层动员来支持这些共和党参议院候选人,并指出这两个州的拉丁裔人口快速增长,可能在竞争激烈的竞选中起到决定性作用。他补充说,一对一的对话在过去的选举中尤其能有效接触和说服拉丁裔选民。

“我真的认为,密歇根州、俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州等州的拉丁裔选民将成为‘不确定因素’,”加尔萨表示,“他们将积极参与,我们也将确保尽一切努力动员他们。”

这次支持凸显了拉丁裔选民在竞争激烈的参议院和众议院竞选中日益重要的地位,这些竞选将决定特朗普总统任期最后两年的国会权力平衡。

拉丁裔选民支持率下降的迹象

共和党希望保留他们在拉丁裔选民中获得的支持——这个群体曾经严重偏向民主党,但现在看起来越来越有希望成为可争取的选民群体。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)针对已验证选民的研究显示,特朗普在2024年赢得了全国48%的拉丁裔选民支持,比2020年增长了12个百分点。

但有迹象表明这一趋势可能正在逆转,民调显示大多数拉丁裔不赞成特朗普对经济和移民的处理方式。

自2024年11月以来的全国选举中,拉丁裔选民投票率很高,拉丁裔人口密集的地区转向支持民主党。在得克萨斯州今年中期选举的第一场主要初选竞赛中,本月早些时候民主党初选中的新选民中拉丁裔占比过高,投票倾向明显偏向民主党。

在2025年新泽西州州长竞选中,每个县的投票结果都比2024年总统选举更倾向民主党。在拉丁裔占比至少20%的10个县,民主党全面获胜,扩大了2024年的优势,并将特朗普在2024年赢得的县转为支持民主党。

去年弗吉尼亚州州长选举中也出现了类似趋势,西班牙裔选民转向支持民主党州长阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格(Abigail Spanberger),她在全州获得了67%的西班牙裔选票。特朗普在2024年的马纳萨斯和马纳萨斯公园(两地拉丁裔占比超过40%)获得大幅胜利,但2025年这两个地区的选民却支持斯潘伯格。

虽然特朗普不会出现在2026年的选票上,但中期选举将检验其政府政策的成效。支持民主党的拉丁裔组织拉丁裔投票(Voto Latino)正在动员拉丁裔选民支持民主党候选人,谴责总统的经济政策,并最近将美国对伊朗的战争列为批评焦点。

“在特朗普将伊朗战争期间油价上涨称为‘代价很小’后,他再次证明自己与过去一年民众面临的经济现实脱节,”拉丁裔投票在一份声明中表示,“家庭们在问一个简单的问题:为什么国会共和党人急于资助国外冲突,却不愿意解决国内的生活成本危机?”

前共和党全国委员会主席与前州长在北卡罗来纳州对决

特朗普在3月北卡罗来纳州初选前支持了前共和党全国委员会主席惠特利,他将在竞选中对阵库珀,预计这将是一场激烈的竞争。

根据北卡罗来纳大学的数据,截至2020年人口普查,该州拉丁裔人口超过110万,较十年前增长了40%,主要集中在夏洛特所在的梅克伦堡县。在选举结果可能以微弱优势决定的情况下,这个占该州人口10%以上的投票群体可能成为关键。

惠特利在赢得共和党初选后接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时,谈到了2024年以来民主党在选举中获得的支持。

“我在整个北卡罗来纳州看到的是:人们想要更好的工作、更高的薪水、更低的成本,以及让他们的社区和孩子感到安全,”惠特利告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻记者梅杰·加勒特(Major Garrett),“这些才是我们在北卡罗来纳州讨论的核心问题。特朗普总统三次赢得北卡罗来纳州,我三次都在他的竞选团队中,我们知道如何在该州获胜。”

与此同时,库珀已六次当选北卡罗来纳州全州性职务,曾担任州长和司法部长。

“我将把在北卡罗来纳州解决问题的能力带到华盛顿,以降低成本,让民众生活更实惠,”库珀在3月初选胜利后的新闻发布会上对支持者表示,“我的对手是个脱离现实的华盛顿内部人士,多年来一直待在那里,是大石油游说集团的人,只关心自己和他那些关系密切的朋友。”

俄亥俄州不断增长的拉丁裔人口

该州称,俄亥俄州有近60万拉丁裔人口,占全州人口的约5%,虽然比北卡罗来纳州少,但过去25年几乎翻了两番。自由倡议行动估计有23.5万拉丁裔登记选民,分布在辛辛那提、克利夫兰等俄亥俄州大城市。

哈斯特德是在2025年被俄亥俄州州长迈克·德温任命,接替辞职成为副总统的JD·万斯(JD Vance),以捍卫其参议院席位。

人们普遍预计他将面临民主党人布朗的挑战,布朗曾担任三届参议员,2024年输给了首位代表该州的拉丁裔参议员伯尼·莫雷诺(Bernie Moreno)。俄亥俄州的初选定于5月5日举行。

共和党在俄亥俄州的表现越来越好,该州曾被视为摇摆州。特朗普在2024年以11个百分点的优势赢得该州,自2006年以来该州还未选出民主党州长。

但俄亥俄州已被民主党视为可能的“拿下”机会。考虑到共和党在参议院仅占微弱多数,这场席位争夺战将异常激烈,左右两派组织都在努力动员尽可能多的选民。

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pF-1Rbnqlw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjs5pCAw3js

Facing potential Latino voter slide, GOP mobilizes in crucial Senate races ahead of 2026 midterms

March 18, 2026 / 6:00 AM EDT / CBS News

Amid signs that Republicans may be losing some of the Latino support that the party picked up in 2024, grassroots organizations are stepping in to boost GOP Senate candidates in key races during this year’s midterms.

The LIBRE Initiative Action, a conservative-leaning Latino political group, is set to endorse Republican Sen. Jon Husted for the Senate seat in Ohio and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whately in the North Carolina Senate race, CBS News has learned.

Both races could prove crucial in deciding whether the GOP holds onto control of the Senate. Democrats are eyeing North Carolina as one of their likeliest opportunities to flip a seat, after nominating former Gov. Roy Cooper. In Ohio, the party is aiming to return former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown to the Senate following years of GOP gains in the state.

Latino voters make up a fast-growing share of both states’ populations, making the group an important factor in any competitive race. The LIBRE Initiative Action says it is planning to emphasize economic issues.

“In every poll that we’ve seen and everywhere we go, the economy continues to be number one for the voting Latino citizen,” Daniel Garza, the group’s senior adviser, told CBS News ahead of Wednesday’s endorsement announcement.

“It’s a priority to the Latino community,” Garza continued. “Jobs, inflation, the cost of the utility bill — all of these issues matter. We don’t want elected officials who are going to increase the tax burden, impose even more employee mandates, regulations on energy production, health care and make it harder to deliver these services, thereby increasing the cost of everything to the Latino community.”

According to Garza, the organization plans to support these Republican Senate candidates through voter education, community engagement and grassroots outreach, noting that both states have rapidly growing Latino populations that could prove decisive in competitive races. One-on-one conversations have been especially effective in reaching and persuading Latino voters in past elections, he added.

“I really feel that the wild card is going to be the Latino voters in states like Michigan, Ohio and North Carolina, and to a certain extent in Georgia,” Garza said. “They’re going to play hard and we are going to make sure we do everything to mobilize them.”

The endorsement highlights the growing importance of Latino voters in competitive Senate and House races that will help determine the balance of power in Congress during President Trump’s last two years in office.

Signs of waning support among Latino voters

Republicans are hoping to retain the gains they have picked up with Latino voters — a group that once skewed heavily Democratic but has increasingly looked like a winnable constituency. Mr. Trump won 48% of Latino voters nationwide in 2024, up 12 points from 2020, according to a Pew Research Center study that looked at verified voters.

But there are signs that this trend may be reversing, as polls show most Latinos disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy and immigration.

In elections across the country since November 2024, Latino voters have shown high turnout, and heavily Latino areas have tilted Democratic. In Texas, the first major primary contest in this year’s midterms, new primary voters in Democratic primaries earlier this month were disproportionately Latino, and their turnout skewed heavily Democratic this year.

In the 2025 gubernatorial race in New Jersey, every county voted more Democratic than in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats swept the 10 counties where Latinos make up at least 20% of the population, expanding on their 2024 margins and flipping counties that Mr. Trump won in 2024.

A similar trend was seen in last year’s Virginia gubernatorial race, where Hispanic voters swung toward Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who won 67% of their vote across the state. Mr. Trump made large gains in Manassas and Manassas Park in 2024, which are more than 40% Latino. In 2025, these two areas turned out for Spanberger.

While Mr. Trump is not on the ballot in 2026, the midterms will offer a temperature check for his administration’s policies. Voto Latino, a left-leaning organization, is working to mobilize Latino voters in support of Democratic candidates, denouncing the president’s economic policies and, most recently, the U.S.’s war with Iran.

“He is proving once again how out of touch he is with the economic reality people have faced over the past year under his failed economic policies,” Voto Latino said in a statement after Mr. Trump described rising gas prices amid the Iran war as “a very small price to pay.” “Families are asking a simple question: why are congressional Republicans moving faster to fund foreign conflicts than to address the cost-of-living crisis right here at home?”

Former RNC chair faces off against ex-governor in North Carolina

Mr. Trump endorsed Whatley, the former RNC chair, in the North Carolina Senate race ahead of the state’s primary in March. He will go on to battle Cooper in what is expected to be a competitive race.

North Carolina has a growing Latino population, with more than 1.1 million residing in the state as of the 2020 Census, up 40% from a decade earlier, according to University of North Carolina figures. They are most concentrated in Mecklenburg County, home to Charlotte. With an election that can be defined by narrow margins, this voting bloc — which makes up more than 10% of the state’s population — could serve to be critical.

In an interview with CBS News after winning the Republican primary, Whatley addressed the support that Democrats have picked up in elections since 2024.

“What I’m seeing all across North Carolina is: People want better jobs, they want bigger paychecks, they want lower costs and they want their communities and their kids to be safe,” Whatley told CBS News’ Major Garrett. “Those are the issue sets that we’re talking about across North Carolina. President Trump carried North Carolina three different times. I was part of his team in all three of those elections, and we know how to win in North Carolina.”

Cooper, meanwhile,has been elected to statewide office in North Carolina six times, having served as governor and attorney general.

“I’m going to take that same problem-solving to Washington that I used here in North Carolina to lower costs and make life more affordable for folks,” Cooper told supporters during a news conference following his March primary victory. “My opponent is an out-of-touch D.C. insider, been up there for years, big oil lobbyist who is only looking out for himself and his well-connected friends.”

Ohio’s growing Latino population

The Buckeye State has nearly 600,000 Latinos, making up around 5% of the state’s population, the state has said — a smaller population than North Carolina’s, but one that has almost tripled over the last quarter-century. An estimated 235,000 are registered to vote, according to LIBRE. Latinos are spread throughout some of Ohio’s largest cities, including Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Husted is running to defend his Senate seat after being appointed by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine in 2025 to replace JD Vance, who resigned from the Senate to become vice president.

He is widely expected to face Brown, a Democrat who served as a senator for three terms before losing in 2024 to Sen. Bernie Moreno, the first Latino to represent the state in the Senate. Ohio’s primary is set for May 5.

The GOP has increasingly done well in Ohio, which was once viewed as a swing state. Mr. Trump won the state by 11 percentage points in 2024, and it has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006.

But Ohio has been identified as a potential pickup opportunity by Democrats. Given the slim majority Republicans hold in the Senate, the battle for this seat will be competitive, and both left- and right-leaning groups are working to mobilize as many voters as they can.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pF-1Rbnqlw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjs5pCAw3js

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